Assn. of Irritated Residents v. Kern County Board etc. ( 2017 )


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  • Filed 11/21/17
    CERTIFIED FOR PARTIAL PUBLICATION*
    IN THE COURT OF APPEAL OF THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA
    FIFTH APPELLATE DISTRICT
    ASSOCIATION OF IRRITATED RESIDENTS
    et al.,                                                            F073892
    Plaintiffs and Appellants,                  (Super. Ct. No. S-1500-CV-283166)
    v.
    OPINION
    KERN COUNTY BOARD OF SUPERVISORS
    et al.,
    Defendants and Respondents;
    ALON USA ENERGY, INC., et al.,
    Real Parties in Interest and Respondents.
    APPEAL from a judgment of the Superior Court of Kern County. Eric Bradshaw,
    Judge.
    Earthjustice, Elizabeth B. Forsyth, Angela Johnson Meszaros and Oscar Espino-
    Padron for Plaintiffs and Appellants.
    Mark L. Nations, Interim County Counsel, Charles F. Collins, Deputy County
    Counsel, for Defendants and Respondents.
    Alston & Bird, Jocelyn Thompson, Roger A. Cerda and Maya L. Grasse for Real
    Parties in Interest and Respondents.
    -ooOoo-
    *       Pursuant to California Rules of Court, rules 8.1105(b) and 8.1110, this opinion is
    certified for publication with the exception of parts I., IV., and VI. of the Discussion.
    Plaintiffs challenge the County of Kern’s certification of an environmental impact
    report (EIR) and approval of a project to modify an oil refinery in Bakersfield so it can
    unload two unit trains (104 cars) of crude oil per day, equating to 150,000 barrels. The
    refinery is authorized to process 70,000 barrels of crude oil per day and the balance of
    unloaded crude (80,000 barrels per day) would be sent to other refineries by pipeline. A
    controversial aspect of the proposed project is the transportation of crude oil from the
    Bakken formation in North Dakota. Compared to heavier crudes, Bakken crude may be
    more volatile and likely to explode in the event of a rail accident.
    Plaintiffs contend the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA; Pub.
    Resources Code, § 21000 et seq.1) was violated because the EIR (1) erroneously used the
    refinery’s operational volume from 2007 as the baseline instead of the conditions existing
    in 2013 when the notice of preparation of the EIR was published; (2) incorrectly relied
    upon the refinery’s participation in California’s cap-and-trade program to conclude the
    project’s greenhouse gas emissions would be less than significant; and (3) underestimated
    and failed to fully describe the project’s rail transport impacts, including the risk of a rail
    accident causing a release of hazardous materials and the environmental impacts of off-
    site rail activity.
    First, we conclude the EIR’s choice of 2007 as the measure of an existing
    conditions baseline for an operating refinery (1) was supported by substantial evidence;
    (2) appropriately deviated from the normal baseline identified in Guidelines section
    15125,2 subdivision (a) because of the refinery’s history of fluctuating operations; and (3)
    conformed to the principles set forth by the California Supreme Court in Communities for
    1       All unlabeled statutory references are to the Public Resources Code.
    2       “Guidelines” refers to the regulations promulgated to implement CEQA, which are
    set forth in California Code of Regulations, title 14, section 15000 et seq. (§ 21083,
    subds. (a), (f) [“Office of Planning and Research shall prepare and develop proposed
    guidelines” and “Secretary of the Resources Agency shall certify and adopt guidelines”].)
    2.
    a Better Environment v. South Coast Air Quality Management Dist. (2010) 
    48 Cal.4th 310
     (Communities for a Better Environment), a case that addressed the appropriate
    baseline for an oil refinery. Thus, the baseline complies with CEQA.
    Second, we interpret the reference in Guidelines section 15064.4, subdivision
    (b)(3) to “regulations … adopted to implement a statewide … plan for the reduction of
    mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions” to include California’s cap-and-trade program.
    We also interpret Guidelines section 15064.4 as authorizing a lead agency to determine
    that a project’s greenhouse gas emissions will have a less than significant effect on the
    environment based on the project’s compliance with the cap-and-trade program.
    Accordingly, we conclude the EIR’s discussion of greenhouse gas emissions contains no
    prejudicial error.
    Third, the EIR contains factual error in its description of federal railroad safety
    data. It erroneously used the total number of “accident/incidents” reported for a 10-year
    period as the number of “train accidents” (both are terms of art under the federal
    regulation). This error tainted the EIR’s calculations of the risk of a release of hazardous
    materials due to a mishap during the rail transportation of crude oil to the refinery. The
    error caused the EIR to underestimate the risk of a release by fivefold.
    Fourth, the EIR erroneously stated federal law preempted CEQA review of certain
    environmental impacts of off-site rail activities. We conclude federal law did not prevent
    the EIR from disclosing and analyzing the reasonably foreseeable environmental impacts
    associated with off-site rail activities. Consequently, the EIR must be corrected to
    include a disclosure and analysis of those indirect effects of the project.
    We therefore reverse the judgment and remand for further proceedings.
    FACTS
    Parties
    Plaintiff Association of Irritated Residents alleges it is a California nonprofit
    corporation formed in 1991 and based in Kern County, where some of its members
    3.
    reside. It alleges it was formed to advocate for clean air and environmental justice in San
    Joaquin Valley communities.
    Plaintiff Center for Biological Diversity alleges it is a nonprofit corporation with
    offices throughout California and the United States. It alleges it is actively involved in
    environmental protection issues throughout North America and has 50,000 members,
    some of whom reside in Kern County.
    Plaintiff Sierra Club alleges it is a national nonprofit organization of
    approximately 600,000 members. Sierra Club alleges it has approximately 600 members
    in Kern County and many more along the railway used to transport crude oil to the
    project site in Bakersfield.
    Defendant Kern County Planning and Community Development Department is the
    lead agency that conducted the environmental review of the project. Defendant Kern
    County Board of Supervisors is the decision-making body that certified the EIR and
    approved the project. The defendants are referred to collectively as “County.”
    Real party in interest Alon USA Energy, Inc. is a Delaware corporation
    headquartered in Texas. It is an independent refiner and marketer of petroleum products
    and the parent company of real party in interest Paramount Petroleum Corporation, a
    Delaware corporation. Paramount Petroleum Corporation is the applicant for, and the
    recipient of, the approvals that are the subject of this litigation. The real parties in
    interest are referred to collectively as “Alon USA.”
    The Refinery
    Alon USA named its proposal the “Alon Bakersfield Refinery Crude Flexibility
    Project” and its purpose is to allow greater flexibility for the existing refinery to process a
    variety of crude oils on-site. The refinery is located at 6451 Rosedale Highway,
    northwest of the City of Bakersfield. The site has been the location of a petroleum
    refinery since 1932. The refinery is capable of producing gas oil, gasoline, diesel fuel
    and petroleum coke. The existing refinery includes units for crude distillation, delayed
    4.
    cooking, hydrocracking, catalytic reforming, and ancillary and support facilities. Those
    facilities include steam boilers, process heaters, cooling towers, storage tanks,
    interconnecting pipelines, and a terminal with truck and rail loading facilities.
    The refinery has current environmental permits, including permits to operate from
    the San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District (Air District). The refinery has a
    maximum rated crude processing capacity of 70,000 barrels per day. The proposed
    project would not increase that capacity.
    Various companies have owned and operated the refinery since 1932. In the
    1980’s Texaco acquired the refinery and two neighboring facilities, integrated them into a
    single plant, and brought the refining capacity up to 70,000 barrels per day. In 2000,
    Shell Oil became the sole owner of the refinery. In November 2003, Shell Oil announced
    it planned to close the refinery. In March 2005, Shell Oil sold the plant to Flying J Inc.,
    which operated the refinery through a subsidiary. As a result of financial issues unrelated
    to the refinery, Flying J Inc. and its subsidiary declared bankruptcy on December 21,
    2008, and, a week later, the refinery was shut down.
    In June 2010, Alon USA purchased the refinery through the bankruptcy. Twelve
    months later, Alon USA resumed some refining operations, processing gas oil transported
    via rail and truck from its refinery located in Paramount, California. When the
    Paramount refinery suspended production, the refinery in Bakersfield stopped its refining
    operations, but continued other operations and activities. Those continuing activities
    included managing inventory, blending and marketing fuels, and functioning as a
    terminal for crude oil and finished petroleum products. The foregoing history is relevant
    to the issue of the project’s baseline and what level of refining operations, if any, may be
    included in the baseline used to analyze the project’s environmental effects.
    The Project
    The project involves: (1) the expansion of existing rail, transfer and storage
    facilities; (2) the construction of process unit upgrades and modifications; (3) repurposing
    5.
    existing storage tanks; and (4) the relocation and modernization of an existing liquid
    propane gas truck rack and upgrades to a sales rack. The expansion includes construction
    of a double rail loop from a new on-site spur connected to the BNSF Railway and the
    addition of up to three new boilers. The EIR estimates the construction phase of the
    project would last approximately 10 months.
    The new unloading facilities would allow offloading of crude oil from rail cars.
    The new facilities would receive and unload two unit trains (104 cars) within a 24-hour
    period under normal operating conditions. Based on the maximum capacity for tank cars,
    the modified facility would be able to offload an average of 150,000 barrels per day. The
    crude oil delivered by unit train would be transferred into the refinery for processing (up
    to 70,000 barrels per day) or into the existing pipeline network for transfer to other
    refineries.
    The expanded train facilities would increase the plant’s potential to receive crude
    oil from the Bakken formation in northwestern North Dakota. Bakken crude oil generally
    is more volatile than other crude oils. The draft EIR described the safety concerns raised
    by transporting Bakken crude by rail and listed five major train accidents and derailments
    in the year preceding the release of the draft EIR.3 The most notable accident involving
    Bakken crude oil occurred in Lac-Megantic, Quebec in July 2013, when 60 tank cars
    exploded and killed 47 people.
    CEQA Review
    On September 19, 2013, County published a notice of preparation of a draft EIR,
    which triggered a “scoping” process that involved soliciting the views of various public
    3      Exhibit Q to plaintiffs’ counsel’s July 7, 2014, comment letter was an 18-page
    document titled “Oil by Rail Safety in California, Preliminary Findings and
    Recommendations,” which was prepared by the State of California’s Interagency Rail
    Safety Working Group and dated June 10, 2014. The document identified the Tehachapi
    Pass to Bakersfield as a high hazard area for derailment.
    6.
    agencies about the scope and content of the environmental information relevant to each
    agency’s statutory responsibilities. The notice also announced the date and location of a
    scoping meeting for responsible agencies and the public. County used the comments
    received during the review period in preparing the draft EIR. Normally, the physical
    environmental conditions existing when the notice is published constitute the project’s
    baseline. (Guidelines, § 15125, subd. (a).)
    County prepared a draft EIR and circulated it for public review from May 22 to
    July 7, 2014. In a letter dated July 7, 2014, counsel for plaintiff submitted written
    comments on the draft EIR. The letter was accompanied by 37 exhibits designated A
    through KK, which contained over 4,000 pages. After the comment period expired,
    County prepared written responses to the comments received from the public and
    responsible agencies. The written responses constitute Chapter 7 of the final EIR and
    were made available to County’s board of supervisors in late August 2014.
    On September 9, 2014, County’s board of supervisors held a public hearing in
    connection with its consideration of the project and the EIR. The board of supervisors
    allocated 30 minutes for attendees who wished to speak in favor of the proposal and 30
    minutes for those who wished to speak against it. At the end of the public hearing the
    board of supervisors unanimously passed a resolution approving the requested zoning
    modifications, adopting findings pursuant to CEQA and the Guidelines, and determining
    the EIR complied with CEQA and was complete and adequate in scope.
    The day after the public hearing, County filed a notice of determination with the
    county clerk. The notice stated County had approved the project and certified the EIR.
    The filing of the notice and its posting by the county clerk commenced the running of a
    30-day statute of limitations for filing a CEQA lawsuit. (§ 21167, subd. (e); Guidelines,
    § 15094, subd. (g).)
    7.
    PROCEEDINGS
    In October 2014, plaintiffs filed a verified petition for writ of mandate against
    County that alleged CEQA violations involving (1) the use of an improper baseline
    reflecting conditions in 2007, (2) an inaccurate project description, (3) a failure to
    adequately disclose the project’s significant environmental effects, (4) a failure to provide
    information upon which conclusions were based, and (5) a failure to discuss and adopt
    mitigation measures. About a week later, plaintiffs filed a first amended petition for writ
    of mandate, which alleged the same five CEQA violations and which is the operative
    pleading in this appeal. The amended pleading referred to “Alon USA Energy, Inc.”
    instead of “Alon U.S.A.”
    On December 18, 2015, and February 5, 2016, the trial court held hearings on the
    petition. On April 1, 2016, the court issued a minute order and ruling denying plaintiffs’
    petition. Later that month, a final judgment denying writ of mandate was entered. In
    June 2016, plaintiffs filed a notice of appeal.
    DISCUSSION
    I.     STANDARD OF REVIEW*
    Appellate review in a CEQA proceeding is governed by the abuse of discretion
    standard set forth in section 21168.5. Consequently, our “inquiry shall extend only to
    whether there was a prejudicial abuse of discretion. Abuse of discretion is established if
    the agency has not proceeded in a manner required by law or if the determination or
    decision is not supported by substantial evidence.” (§ 21168.5.)
    Under this abuse of discretion standard, we independently review claims that a
    public agency committed legal error (i.e., did not proceed in the manner required by law)
    in conducting the environmental review required by CEQA. (Vineyard Area Citizens for
    Responsible Growth, Inc. v. City of Rancho Cordova (2007) 
    40 Cal.4th 412
    , 426-427.)
    *      See footnote, ante, page 1.
    8.
    As to claims that an agency committed factual errors, we apply the substantial evidence
    standard of review. (Id. at p. 426.)
    II.    BASELINE FOR PROJECT’S AIR POLLUTION IMPACTS
    A.     Contentions of the Parties
    Plaintiffs contend County failed to proceed in the manner required by law when it
    chose 2007 as the baseline for the refinery’s air pollution emissions instead of the
    conditions that existed in 2013 when County published the notice of preparation.4
    Plaintiffs rely on Guidelines section 15125, subdivision (a) and argue the physical
    conditions existing when the notice of preparation is published normally constitute the
    baseline and that norm should have been used in this case. Plaintiffs argue County’s use
    of a 2007 baseline for air pollution emissions was gamesmanship designed to conceal or
    understate the project’s air pollution emissions and did not improve the informational
    value of the EIR to decision makers and the public.
    County contends its choice of the 2007 baseline is supported by substantial
    evidence and relevant case law. County argues it had to resolve the question of what the
    existing refinery contributed to the project’s baseline. County asserts the 2007 baseline
    brings the project’s impacts into focus and avoids confusing (1) the impacts resulting
    from the changes caused by the project with (2) impacts resulting from operating the
    existing refinery—operations that already are approved. In simplified terms, County
    contends: (1) the existing conditions include a refinery with a history of actual operations
    pursuant to governmental authorizations entitling it to process up to 70,000 barrels of
    4       A notice of preparation is a brief notice sent by the lead agency to (1) notify
    responsible agencies that the lead agency plans to prepare an EIR for the project and (2)
    solicit guidance from those agencies as to the scope and content of environmental
    information included in the EIR. (Guidelines, § 15375; see Guidelines, § 15103
    [response to notice of preparation].) The contents of a notice of preparation are described
    in Guidelines section 15082 and a sample notice is provided in Appendix I of the
    Guidelines.
    9.
    crude oil per day; (2) the history of actual operations should be reflected in the baseline;
    and (3) the actual operations from 2007 provide a reasonable measurement of the
    refinery’s historical operations. We agree with these contentions and conclude the
    baseline chosen did not violate CEQA.
    B.     Legal Principles
    1.     General Principles Relating to Baseline Selection
    The purpose of an EIR is to identify the project’s significant effects on the
    environment and indicate the manner in which those significant effects can be mitigated
    or avoided. (§ 21002.1, subd. (a).) CEQA considers this information to be part of the
    public disclosure intended to be “meaningful and useful to decisionmakers and to the
    public.” (§ 21003, subd. (b); see § 21002.1, subd. (e).)
    “To decide whether a given project’s environmental effects are likely to be
    significant, the agency must use some measure of the environment’s state absent the
    project, a measure sometimes referred to as the ‘baseline’ for environmental analysis.”
    (Communities for a Better Environment, supra, 48 Cal.4th at p. 315, italics added.) The
    baseline used in an EIR “delineate[s] environmental conditions prevailing absent the
    project” and it is these conditions “against which predicted effects can be described and
    quantified.” (Neighbors for Smart Rail v. Exposition Metro Line Construction Authority
    (2013) 
    57 Cal.4th 439
    , 447 (Neighbors for Smart Rail).) More specifically, the potential
    physical changes to the environment generally are “identified by comparing existing
    physical conditions [(i.e., the baseline)] with the physical conditions that are predicted to
    exist at a later point in time, after the proposed activity has been implemented. [Citation.]
    The difference between these two sets of physical conditions is the relevant physical
    change” to the environment, part of which may be allocated to the project and part of
    which may be allocated to other causes. (Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. v. City of Turlock (2006)
    
    138 Cal.App.4th 273
    , 289.) After the project’s predicted environmental effects have been
    10.
    quantified, the agency then determines whether those environmental effects are
    “significant” for purposes of CEQA. Thus, the baseline is a fundamental component of
    the analysis used to determine whether a proposed project may cause environmental
    effects and, if so, whether those effects are significant.
    2.      Specific Text of the Statute and Guidelines
    CEQA does not use or define the term “baseline.” Nevertheless, the idea of a
    baseline is embedded in CEQA’s definition of the environment. “‘Environment’ means
    the physical conditions which exist within the area which will be affected by a proposed
    project.” (§ 21060.5, italics added; see Guidelines, § 15360 [regulatory definition of
    “environment”].) The importance of existing physical conditions is repeated in CEQA
    provisions addressing the preparation of an EIR by state and local agencies. For instance,
    when such agencies prepare an EIR, “any significant effect on the environment shall be
    limited to substantial, or potentially substantial, adverse changes in physical conditions
    which exist within the area.” (§§ 21100, subd. (d), 21151, subd. (b), italics added.)
    These references to physical conditions that exist provide the statutory foundation for the
    Guidelines provision that uses the term “baseline.” Guidelines section 15125,
    subdivision (a) provides in part:
    “An EIR must include a description of the physical environmental
    conditions in the vicinity of the project, as they exist at the time the notice
    of preparation is published, or if no notice of preparation is published, at
    the time environmental analysis is commenced, from both a local and
    regional perspective. This environmental setting will normally constitute
    the baseline physical conditions by which a lead agency determines
    whether an impact is significant.” (Italics added.)
    In sum, the text of CEQA and the Guidelines identify existing conditions as the
    starting point (i.e., baseline) for determining and quantifying the proposed project’s
    11.
    changes to the environment. Furthermore, the Guidelines amplify the statutory text by
    specifying the point in time normally used to identify existing physical conditions. 5
    3.     Baseline for a Petroleum Refinery
    The application of the provisions from CEQA and the Guidelines relating to
    baselines is relatively simple in this case because the California Supreme Court has
    discussed the appropriate baseline for a project involving modification to a petroleum
    refinery. In Communities for a Better Environment, supra, 
    48 Cal.4th 310
    ,
    ConocoPhillips proposed modifying the refinery to enable it to produce ultralow sulfur
    diesel fuel. (Id. at p. 316.) The plans “involved replacing or modifying hydrotreater
    reactors, a cooling tower, storage tank, and compressor; installing new pipelines and
    pumps; and substantially increasing operation of the existing cogeneration plant and four
    boilers, which provide steam for refinery operations.” (Id. at p. 317.) ConocoPhillips
    had permits to operate the cogeneration plant and boiler and those permits specified the
    maximum rate of heat production for each piece of equipment. (Id. at pp. 317-318.)
    ConocoPhillips applied to the regional air quality management district for a permit
    to construct the proposed modifications to its refinery. (Communities for a Better
    Environment, supra, 48 Cal.4th at p. 317.) The district approved the permits after
    concluding in a negative declaration that (1) the proposed project would cause increased
    operation of the steam generating equipment; (2) the increased steam generation and
    other new activities would create additional NOx emissions; and (3) the proposed project
    5       The regulatory term “normally” and the point-in-time references are repeated in
    Guidelines section 15126.2, subdivision (a), which states: “In assessing the impact of a
    proposed project on the environment, the lead agency should normally limit its
    examination to changes in the existing physical conditions in the affected area as they
    exist at the time the notice of preparation is published, or where no notice of preparation
    is published, at the time environmental analysis is commenced.” (Italics added.) This
    regulatory text takes the mandatory phrase “shall be limited” used in sections 21100 and
    21151 and changes it to “should normally limit” and adds point-in-time references that do
    not appear in CEQA. (See Guidelines, § 15005, subd. (b) [definition of “should”].)
    12.
    could not have a significant effect on the environment because the increase in NOx
    emissions from the increased operation of the existing steam generation equipment were
    not attributable to the project because those operations did not exceed the maximum rate
    of heat production allowed under the existing permit. (Id. at p. 318.) Restated using the
    concept of a baseline, “the District treated any additional NOx emissions stemming from
    increased plant operations within previously permitted levels as part of the baseline
    measurement for environmental review, rather than as part of the proposed Diesel
    Project.” (Ibid.)
    The district’s choice of the existing maximum permitted operations as the baseline
    was rejected by the Supreme Court. (Communities for a Better Environment, supra, 48
    Cal.4th at p. 316 [district abused its discretion by comparing project’s effects “to a
    baseline of maximum permitted capacity”].) The court relied on Guidelines section
    15125 and CEQA case law for the principle that the baseline for an agency’s primary
    environmental analysis under CEQA must ordinarily be the actually existing physical
    conditions rather than hypothetical conditions that could have existed under applicable
    permits or regulations. (Communities for a Better Environment, supra, at pp. 320–322.)
    Applying this principle, the court determined the air pollution effects of the proposal to
    modify the petroleum refinery’s operations were to be measured against the existing
    emission levels, rather than against the levels that would have existed had all the
    refinery’s boilers operated simultaneously at their maximum permitted capacities. (Id. at
    pp. 322–327.) Thus, the Supreme Court concluded the district used an erroneous
    baseline.
    The Supreme Court did not take the further step of identifying the baseline that
    was required to be used. Instead, the court stated: “We leave for the District on remand,
    however, to resolve exactly how the existing physical conditions—assertedly subject to
    operational variation over time—should be measured.” (Communities for a Better
    Environment, supra, 48 Cal.4th at p. 316.) The court reiterated that it would “not attempt
    13.
    here to answer any technical questions as to how existing refinery operations should be
    measured for baseline purposes in this case or how similar baseline conditions should be
    measured in future cases.” (Id. at p. 327.) Nevertheless, the court addressed the problem
    of defining an existing conditions baseline in circumstances where the existing conditions
    themselves change or fluctuate over time, as ConocoPhillip’s refinery operations and
    emissions had. (Id. at pp. 327–328.) “A temporary lull or spike in operations that
    happens to occur at the time environmental review for a new project begins should not
    depress or elevate the baseline.” (Id. at p. 328.) The court concluded that despite the
    Guidelines’ reference to “the time the notice of preparation is published, or if no notice of
    preparation is published, ... the time environmental analysis is commenced” (Guidelines,
    § 15125, subd. (a)), “[n]either CEQA nor the CEQA Guidelines mandates a uniform,
    inflexible rule for determination of the existing conditions baseline. Rather, an agency
    enjoys the discretion to decide, in the first instance, exactly how the existing physical
    conditions without the project can most realistically be measured, subject to review, as
    with all CEQA factual determinations, for support by substantial evidence.”
    (Communities for a Better Environment, supra, at p. 328.)
    The foregoing sentence sets forth the legal principle applicable to the parties’
    dispute about how the existing physical conditions should be measured. Consequently,
    we consider whether substantial evidence supports County’s finding that existing
    physical conditions are realistically measured by the volume the refinery processed in
    2007.
    4.     EIR’s Discussion of the Choice of Baseline
    Section 3.3.2 of the EIR is labeled “Baseline/Existing Environmental Setting.”
    That section provides a history of the refinery and its operations from 1932 to the present
    and then states:
    “Here, the refinery was established over 80 years ago, and environmental
    review has been conducted for numerous upgrades and modifications since
    14.
    the adoption of CEQA. The refinery has temporarily suspended most
    refining operations, but the new owner has consistently stated its intention
    to continue refining at the site. To bring the project impacts into clearest
    focus and avoid confusing the impacts of the project changes with the
    operation of the existing refinery, the baseline for purposes of
    environmental review is considered to be the physical environmental
    conditions as of 2013, adjusted where necessary to include refinery
    operations and related activities in 2007.”
    The EIR reiterates that it “generally uses a baseline consisting of the physical
    environmental conditions as of September 19, 2013, the date of the Notice of Preparation
    (NOP) was issued for the project, adjusted to the extent necessary to reflect an operating
    refinery.” The operating refinery is represented in the EIR by data from 2007 (where
    available), which was the last full year of operations.
    The draft EIR supports the choice of 2007 as representing the existing refinery
    operations by providing data for the refinery’s throughput for 12 years (2001 to 2012,
    inclusive) in Table 3-3. Average barrels per calendar day were:
    62,164    (2001);
    67,426    (2002);
    66,849    (2003);
    65,144    (2004);
    56,238    (2005);
    51,842    (2006);
    60,389    (2007);
    57,900    (2008);
    0         (2009);
    0         (2010);
    10,915    (2011); and
    4,751     (2012).
    15.
    These figures combine crude oil and other hydrocarbons. In 2011 and 2012, there
    was no crude oil refined at the existing refinery. The figures for those years reflect the
    further refining of gas oil received from the Paramount refinery.
    The EIR states the refinery is capable of processing 70,000 barrels per day and
    asserts a baseline of the 60,389 average barrels per day from 2007 is conservative. The
    EIR also states it was reasonable to include the operating refinery in the baseline because
    many aspects of the refinery and its operations were reviewed in prior CEQA documents.
    Those CEQA documents were summarized in Table 3-4 of the EIR.
    5.     Substantial Evidence Supports the Choice of Baseline
    Our analysis of County’s treatment of the baseline question breaks the County’s
    approach into two factual components. The first inquiry considers the basic question of
    whether County has a sufficient evidentiary basis for finding existing conditions included
    an operating refinery. If that finding is upheld, the second inquiry addresses whether
    substantial evidence supports County’s choice of 2007 as a realistic measure of the
    baseline physical conditions created by the refinery’s operations.
    We conclude substantial evidence supports County’s finding that existing physical
    conditions included an operating refinery, despite the fact the operations were shut down
    shortly after Flying J and its subsidiary filed bankruptcy in December 2008. First, the
    evidence establishes that refinery operations of up to 70,000 barrels per day have been
    approved by the issuance of permits or other entitlements that are still in effect. Second,
    information in the EIR, including Table 3-3, shows the refinery actually processed crude
    oil and other hydrocarbons until the bankruptcy filing of Flying J and its subsidiary in
    December 2008, and the processing of other hydrocarbons (i.e., gas oil) resumed in 2011
    and continued in 2012. Third, as demonstrated by Table 3-4 in the EIR, the refinery
    operations have been subject to prior environmental reviews under CEQA. Fourth, the
    processing of crude oil at the refinery could begin again without the approval of the
    16.
    project currently being proposed by Alon USA. These facts provide sufficient support
    for finding that existing conditions included an operating refinery and, therefore, an
    operating refinery was properly included in the project’s baseline.
    Our second factual inquiry considers whether County’s choice of the figure from
    2007 as the baseline is supported by substantial evidence. We conclude substantial
    evidence supports that choice. First, the 2007 figure reflects operations of the refinery
    that actually occurred. The figure is not hypothetical and it is not the maximum
    authorized by existing permits. Use of the maximum of 70,000 barrels per day would
    have been inappropriate because that level was not achieved in any of the years from
    2001 through 2012 and Communities for a Better Environment rejected using the
    maximum permitted amounts in a baseline where that maximum was rarely, if ever,
    reached. Second, the evidence shows the 2007 figure was a reasonable representation of
    the operations actually performed at the refinery. Although the EIR does not calculate
    the average barrels per day for the period from 2001 through 2008 when crude oil was
    being refined, we calculate that average as 60,994 barrels per day, which is 605 barrels
    per day more than the 2007 figure. The comparison of this overall average to the 2007
    figure leads us to conclude the 2007 figure was a reasonable estimate of the operations
    that actually existed. Furthermore, the EIR did not misrepresent the facts or mislead the
    public by stating its use of the 2007 figure was conservative because the 2007 figure is
    slightly less than the overall average.
    The foregoing analysis and conclusions are compatible with North County
    Advocates v. City of Carlsbad (2015) 
    241 Cal.App.4th 94
    , a case addressing the
    appropriate baseline for the traffic analysis performed in connection with proposed
    renovations of a shopping center. (Id. at p. 97.) The project’s EIR adopted a traffic
    baseline that treated a large retail store as being fully occupied, even though it was
    vacated in 2006 and had been only periodically occupied since. (Ibid.) The appellate
    court upheld the lead agency’s determination of the traffic baseline, concluding
    17.
    substantial evidence supported the determination because “it was based on recent
    historical use and was consistent with [project applicant’s] right to fully occupy the
    [retail] space without further discretionary approvals.” (Ibid.)
    In summary, County did not abuse its discretion when it chose the operating
    volume from 2007 to measure for the existing physical conditions created by the
    operation of the refinery.
    6.     Test for a Future Conditions Baseline Does Not Apply
    Plaintiffs contend all deviations from CEQA’s normal baseline—that is, existing
    conditions at the time the notice of preparation is published—must be supported by a
    demonstration in the EIR that analyzing project impacts under the normal baseline would
    be “misleading or without informational value.” (Neighbors for Smart Rail, supra, 57
    Cal.4th at p. 457.) Plaintiffs acknowledge that Neighbors for Smart Rail involved an
    agency’s selection of environmental conditions projected to occur in the future and argue
    “the rationale and holding of the case are phrased broadly, and thus apply to all agency
    decisions to deviate from CEQA’s normal existing conditions baseline.” We disagree
    with plaintiffs’ broad interpretation of Neighbors for Smart Rail. We interpret that case
    as applying only to baselines that use hypothetical future conditions. Consequently, we
    conclude its principles do not apply to an agency’s decision about how to measure
    existing conditions when the activity creating those conditions has fluctuated.
    In our view, the use of an existing conditions baseline is fundamentally different
    from the use of a hypothetical set of physical conditions that might exist in the future.
    Existing physical conditions are referred to in CEQA’s statutory text. (§§ 21060.5,
    21100, subd. (d), 21151, subd. (b).) In contrast, a comparison based on hypothetical
    future conditions is not mentioned in CEQA. Similarly, the Guidelines state existing
    physical conditions at the time the notice of preparation is published are the normal
    baseline and make no reference to the use of hypothetical future conditions. In light of
    18.
    the statutory and regulatory text, it made sense for the Supreme Court to adopt a strict test
    for determining the propriety of deviating from an existing conditions baseline in favor of
    a baseline that uses hypothetical future conditions.
    Furthermore, the court adopted language in Neighbors for Smart Rail that
    acknowledges this distinction:
    “Projected future conditions may be used as the sole baseline for impacts
    analysis if their use in place of measured existing conditions—a departure
    from the norm stated in Guidelines section 15125(a)—is justified by
    unusual aspects of the project or the surrounding conditions. That the
    future conditions analysis would be informative is insufficient, but an
    agency does have discretion to completely omit an analysis of impacts on
    existing conditions when inclusion of such an analysis would detract from
    an EIR’s effectiveness as an informational document, either because an
    analysis based on existing conditions would be uninformative or because it
    would be misleading to decision makers and the public.” (Neighbors for
    Smart Rail, supra, 57 Cal.4th at pp. 451-452.)
    This quoted language clearly shows the court intended a future conditions baseline
    to be subject to a more rigorous judicial scrutiny than the scrutiny applied to the choice of
    measurement for an existing conditions baseline, a choice that is a factual finding
    reviewed under the substantial evidence standard. (Communities for a Better
    Environment, supra, 48 Cal.4th at p. 328.)
    We note that there are two basic ways to deviate from the existing conditions
    baseline normally used. First, a future conditions baseline could be used. In that case,
    the standards set forth in Neighbors for Smart Rail must be satisfied. Second, an existing
    conditions baseline could deviate from the norm identified in Guidelines section 15125,
    subdivision (a) by measuring existing physical conditions at a time other than when the
    notice of preparation is published. This second deviation is easily distinguished from the
    first type because it still measures conditions that actually existed and does not utilize
    hypothetical conditions. In short, the stricter principles applied to future (i.e.,
    hypothetical) conditions baselines are not needed when a baseline using actual conditions
    19.
    at a time other than the publication of the notice of preparation is used to address “the
    problem of defining an existing conditions baseline in circumstances where the existing
    conditions themselves change or fluctuate over time.” (Neighbors for Smart Rail, supra,
    57 Cal.4th at p. 449.) In the latter situation, the principles set forth in Communities for a
    Better Environment establish the substantial evidence standard as the applicable standard
    of judicial review. If the Supreme Court had intended to change that aspect of its
    decision in Communities for a Better Environment, it would have stated it was modifying
    its earlier decision. Therefore, we reject plaintiffs’ argument that the principles adopted
    in Neighbors for Smart Rail for future conditions baselines apply to County’s choice of
    the 2007 figure to measure the refinery’s existing conditions baseline.
    III.   GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
    A.     General Information about Greenhouse Gases
    Greenhouse gases absorb infrared radiation and trap the heat in the Earth’s
    atmosphere, rather than allowing the radiation to escape into space. The most prevalent
    greenhouse gases are water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide,
    hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, and sulfur hexafluoride. The capacity of each gas
    to retain heat varies. To ease comparison, emissions of greenhouse gases are converted
    into a carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e),6 which is the amount of carbon dioxide that
    would have the same global warming potential as the emissions of that particular
    greenhouse gas.
    Fossil fuel combustion is the source of the vast majority of the United States’
    greenhouse gas emissions. In 2011, total greenhouse gas emissions in the United States
    were 6,702 million metric tons of CO2e, which is down from the peak of 7,263 million
    metric tons in 2007. In 2010, California produced 452 million metric tons of CO2e. The
    6     “CO2e” is defined by regulation to mean “the number of metric tons of [carbon
    dioxide] emissions with the same global warming potential as one metric ton of another
    greenhouse gas.” (Cal. Code Regs., tit. 17, § 95802, subd. (a).)
    20.
    transportation sector was the largest contributor to California’s greenhouse gas emissions,
    producing 38 percent of the state’s total. Electrical generation produced 21 percent.
    B.     Regulatory Background
    1.     Supreme Court Decisions
    Two recent decisions of the California Supreme Court provide overviews of
    California’s regulatory scheme addressing greenhouse gas emissions for the purpose of
    slowing climate change. (Cleveland National Forest Foundation v. San Diego
    Association of Governments (2017) 
    3 Cal.5th 497
    , 504-507 [part I] (Cleveland); Center
    for Biological Diversity v. Department of Fish & Wildlife (2015) 
    62 Cal.4th 204
    , 215-217
    [part II.A.1] (Center for Biological Diversity).) Among other things, the overviews
    describe provisions of the California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (Health &
    Saf. Code, § 38500 et seq.) and the climate change scoping plan prepared by the
    California State Air Resources Board (CARB). (Cleveland, supra, at p. 505; Center for
    Biological Diversity, supra, at pp. 215-216.)
    In Center for Biological Diversity, the court explained some of the difficulties
    inherent in determining whether a project’s greenhouse gas emissions will have a
    significant adverse effect on the environment. (Center for Biological Diversity, supra, 62
    Cal.4th at p. 219.) “First, because of the global scale of climate change, any one project’s
    contribution is unlikely to be significant by itself. The challenge for CEQA purposes is
    to determine whether the impact of the project’s emissions of greenhouse gases is
    cumulatively considerable, in the sense that ‘the incremental effects of [the] individual
    project are considerable when viewed in connection with the effects of past projects, the
    effects of other current projects, and the effects of probable future projects.’” (Ibid.,
    quoting § 21083, subd. (b)(2).) “Second, the global scope of climate change and the fact
    that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, once released into the atmosphere, are
    not contained in the local area of their emission means that the impacts to be evaluated
    21.
    are also global rather than local.” (Center for Biological Diversity, supra, at pp. 219–
    220.)
    The principal statutory and regulatory provisions governing CEQA analysis of
    greenhouse gas emissions are section 21083.05 and Guidelines section 15064.4. (Center
    for Biological Diversity, supra, 62 Cal.4th at p. 219.) We take up the description of the
    regulatory scheme by quoting the text of those provisions and then summarize
    California’s cap-and-trade program.
    2.     Section 21083.05
    In 2007, the Legislature amended CEQA to address greenhouse gas emissions by
    requiring the preparation, adoption and periodic update of guidelines for mitigation of
    greenhouse gas impacts. (Stats. 2007, ch. 185, § 1, p. 2330, adding § 21083.05.) The
    present version of section 21083.05 provides in full:
    “The Office of Planning and Research and the Natural Resources Agency
    shall periodically update the guidelines for the mitigation of greenhouse gas
    emissions or the effects of greenhouse gas emissions as required by
    [CEQA], including, but not limited to, effects associated with transportation
    or energy consumption, to incorporate new information or criteria
    established by the State Air Resources Board pursuant to [the California
    Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006].”
    3.     Guidelines Section 15064.4
    In 2010, the Natural Resources Agency complied with the legislative directive and
    promulgated a guideline under CEQA for assessing the significance of greenhouse gas
    emissions impacts. (Cleveland, supra, 3 Cal.5th at p. 512.) Guidelines section 15064.4,
    subdivision (a) provides:
    “The determination of the significance of greenhouse gas emissions calls
    for a careful judgment by the lead agency consistent with the provisions in
    section 15064. A lead agency should make a good-faith effort, based to the
    extent possible on scientific and factual data, to describe, calculate or
    estimate the amount of greenhouse gas emissions resulting from a project.
    A lead agency shall have discretion to determine, in the context of a
    particular project, whether to:
    22.
    “(1) Use a model or methodology to quantify greenhouse gas
    emissions resulting from a project, and which model or methodology to
    use. The lead agency has discretion to select the model or methodology it
    considers most appropriate provided it supports its decision with substantial
    evidence. The lead agency should explain the limitations of the particular
    model or methodology selected for use; and/or
    “(2) Rely on a qualitative analysis or performance based standards.”
    Subdivision (b) of Guidelines section 15064.4 provides a nonexclusive list of
    factors a lead agency should consider when assessing the environmental significance of
    the project’s impacts from greenhouse gas emissions:
    “(1) The extent to which the project may increase or reduce greenhouse gas
    emissions as compared to the existing environmental setting; [¶] (2)
    Whether the project emissions exceed a threshold of significance that the
    lead agency determines applies to the project; [¶] (3) The extent to which
    the project complies with regulations or requirements adopted to implement
    a statewide, regional, or local plan for the reduction or mitigation of
    greenhouse gas emissions.”
    The last factor listed is relevant in this case because County’s assessment of the
    significance of the impacts of the project’s greenhouse gas emissions relied on the
    project’s compliance with the cap-and-trade program. We conclude the cap-and-trade
    program consists of “regulations … adopted to implement a statewide … plan for the
    reduction or mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions” as that phrase is used in Guidelines
    section 15064.4, subdivision (b)(3), and was properly considered by County in its
    evaluation, preparation, and approval of the EIR. (See Cal. Code Regs., tit. 17, §§
    95801-96022 [cap-and-trade program].)
    4.     Cap-and-Trade Regulations
    As required by the California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006, CARB
    pursued a number of strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. One of those
    strategies was a cap-and-trade program, which CARB implemented by promulgating
    regulations in 2011. (Cal. Code Regs., tit. 17, §§ 95801-96022; see Association of
    Irritated Residents v. State Air Resources Bd. (2012) 
    206 Cal.App.4th 1487
    , 1498, fn. 6,
    23.
    [summary of the cap-and-trade program].) The express regulatory purpose was “to
    reduce emissions of greenhouse gases associated with entities identified in this article
    through the establishment, administration, and enforcement of the California Greenhouse
    Gas Cap-and-Trade Program by applying an aggregate greenhouse gas allowance budget
    on covered entities and providing a trading mechanism for compliance instruments.”
    (Cal. Code Regs., tit. 17, § 95801.)
    “‘Compliance Instrument’” is defined as an “allowance” or “offset” issued by
    CARB or by an external trading system to which California’s cap-and-trade program has
    been linked pursuant to the regulations. (Cal. Code Regs., tit. 17, § 95802, subd. (a).)
    “‘Allowance’” is a limited tradable authorization to emit up to one metric ton of CO2e.
    (Cal. Code Regs., tit. 17, § 95802, subd. (a).) An “‘Offset credit’” is a tradable
    compliance instrument issued by CARB that represents a greenhouse gas reduction or
    greenhouse gas removal enhancement of one metric ton of CO2e. (Cal. Code Regs., tit.
    17, § 95802, subd. (a).) The reduction or removal justifying an offset credit “must be
    real, additional, quantifiable, permanent, verifiable and enforceable.” (Ibid.)7
    The EIR described the cap-and-trade program by stating it established “a system
    of market-based declining annual aggregate emission limits for [greenhouse gas]
    emission sources, applicable from January 1, 2013, to December 31, 2020. The cap-and-
    trade program imposes enforceable [greenhouse gas] emission caps for covered facilities
    (refineries, electric power providers, cement production facilities, oil and gas production
    facilities, and other industrial facilities).” Both the refinery and its electrical power
    provider, Pacific Gas and Electric, are subject to California’s cap-and-trade program.
    Capped facilities are required to surrender greenhouse gas emission compliance
    instruments equal to their emissions at the end of each compliance period (i.e., 2013-
    7      The terms “‘[a]dditional,’” “‘[e]nforceable,’” “‘[p]ermanent,’” “‘[q]uantifiable,’”
    “‘[r]eal,’” and “‘[v]erifiable’” are defined by the cap-and-trade regulation. (Cal. Code
    Regs., tit. 17, § 95802, subd. (a).)
    24.
    2014, 2015-2017, and 2018-2020). Over these periods, greenhouse gas emissions from
    capped facilities are expected to be 75 million metric tons per year less than baseline
    conditions, which would represent an 18 percent reduction from the statewide 1990
    greenhouse gas emissions. Pursuant to the cap-and-trade program, in January 2013,
    CARB issued 29.3 million metric tons in free greenhouse gas allowances to California
    refineries, which represented 93 percent of the reported greenhouse gas emissions from
    those same facilities during 2011. Similarly, in September 2012, CARB distributed 97.7
    million metric tons in free 2013-vintage greenhouse gas allowances to California
    electrical distribution utilities.
    C.      EIR’s Discussion of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Cap-and-Trade
    The EIR addressed greenhouse gas emissions in section 4.5, which includes
    subsections on the regulatory setting8 and the project’s impacts. The EIR acknowledges
    that the refinery will produce greenhouse gas emissions and will be subject to the cap-
    and-trade program. Consequently, the EIR states Alon USA will be required to (1)
    reduce greenhouse gas emissions elsewhere in the refinery or (2) surrender greenhouse
    gas allowances, offset credits, or other compliance instruments to counterbalance those
    emissions. Similarly, the EIR states Pacific Gas and Electric will be required to reduce
    greenhouse gas emissions at its facilities or to surrender compliance instruments to
    counterbalance the emission increases associated with increased power usage.
    1.      Quantifying Emissions and Reductions/Offsets
    The project’s greenhouse gas emissions are categorized and quantified in Tables
    4.5-2 and 4.5-3 of the EIR. The tables also show the application of compliance
    instruments to counterbalance the greenhouse gas emissions.
    8      The regulatory setting describes (1) federal legislation and regulations applicable
    to greenhouse gas emissions, (2) California legislation and a 2005 executive order from
    Governor Schwarzenegger, (3) guidance documents adopted by Air District, and (4) the
    Metropolitan Bakersfield General Plan.
    25.
    Table 4.5-2 sets forth the estimated greenhouse gas emissions for the project,
    excluding emissions associated with main line rail activities. The emissions are divided
    into three categories: (1) construction activity, (2) permitted sources, and (3) non-
    permitted sources. Permitted sources are essentially the stationary parts of the refinery’s
    operations. The two permitted source line items with table entries are existing heaters
    (40,439.3 metric tons per year of CO2e) and new boilers (29,288.9 metric tons per year of
    CO2e). The non-permitted sources include mobile sources, such as on-site rail
    transportation, truck transportation, and on-site vehicles and equipment. Non-permitted
    sources also include indirect greenhouse gas emissions from electrical power use
    (14,129.7 metric tons per year of CO2e). The total annual greenhouse gas emissions for
    the project, excluding main line rail activities, are calculated as being 88,248.9 metric
    tons per year of CO2e.
    Table 4.5-2 of the EIR also includes four line items under the heading for
    greenhouse gas emission reductions: (1) offsets of the permitted source greenhouse gas
    increases through cap-and-trade, (2) displaced truck trips from refineries in the San
    Francisco Bay Area to Fresno, (3) greenhouse gas reductions realized by on-site rail by
    using diesel fuel that complies with the federal biomass-based diesel fuel requirements,
    and (4) offsets of electric utility greenhouse gas emissions increases through cap-and-
    trade. These four items totaled 88,737.7 metric tons of CO2e per year, which exceed the
    project’s greenhouse gas emissions by 488.9 metric tons of CO2e per year. As a result,
    the EIR concluded the greenhouse gas emissions after application of emission reductions
    equal a negative 488.9 metric tons of CO2e per year and states greenhouse gas emissions
    are reduced by 100.6 percent.
    Table 4.5-3 of the EIR sets forth the estimated greenhouse gas emissions for the
    project including the emissions associated with main line rail activities, which it lists as
    49,638.0 metric tons of CO2e per year. This addition causes the total greenhouse gas
    emissions to equal 137,886.9 metric tons of CO2e per year. The main line rail activities
    26.
    also changed the total greenhouse gas emission reductions, which rose slightly to
    89,358.4 metric tons of CO2e per year. As a result, the greenhouse gas emissions after
    application of emission reductions equal 48,528.5 metric tons of CO2e per year. The EIR
    states the emission reductions are 64.8 percent of the project’s annual greenhouse gas
    emissions. The EIR characterizes this reduction as meeting the threshold of significance
    defined as 29 percent greenhouse gas mitigation compared to business as usual.9
    2.     Thresholds of Significance
    The EIR stated County had not developed a quantitative threshold of significance
    for greenhouse gas emissions. It also stated a project is presumed to have a less-than-
    significant greenhouse gas emission impact if the project is found (1) to contribute to a
    net decrease in greenhouse gas emissions and (2) to be consistent with the adopted
    implementation of CARB’s climate change scoping plan.
    The EIR stated the Air District adopted guidance documents for assessing and
    mitigating greenhouse gas emissions impacts on global climate change. Air District did
    not establish specific numeric thresholds of significance, but utilized performance based
    standards to assess cumulative impacts on global climate change. Under Air District’s
    May 2012 draft Guidance for Assessing and Mitigating Air Quality Impacts, a project is
    deemed to have a less than significant individual and cumulative impact for greenhouse
    gas emissions if (1) it complies with a statewide, regional, or local plan for reducing or
    mitigating greenhouse gas emissions; (2) it implements Air District’s best performance
    standards; or (3) it achieves a 29 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions
    compared to business as usual, which is the target established by CARB for
    implementation of the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006.
    9     A “‘business-as-usual’” projection “assumes no conservation or regulatory efforts
    beyond what was in place when the forecast was made.” (Center for Biological
    Diversity, supra, 62 Cal.4th at p. 216.)
    27.
    The EIR stated the project’s greenhouse gas emissions were anticipated to be less
    than significant because (1) the project is consistent with CARB’s climate change
    scoping plan and the cap-and-trade program and (2) greenhouse gas emissions reductions
    achieved under cap-and-trade, federal renewable fuels standard, and displacement of fuel
    transport trucks exceed the 29 percent greenhouse gas emissions reductions target
    recommended in Air District’s May 2012 draft Guidance for Assessing and Mitigating
    Air Quality Impacts. The same conclusions regarding significance were reached
    regardless of whether the main rail line activities were included or excluded from the
    calculation of the project’s greenhouse gas emissions.
    3.     CEQA Findings
    The board of supervisors certified the EIR and relied on it to make findings in
    accordance with Guidelines section 15091 about the project’s environmental effects. As
    to greenhouse gas emissions, the board of supervisors found the project (1) would not
    generate emissions, either directly or indirectly, that may have a significant impact on the
    environment and (2) would not conflict with any applicable plan, policy or regulation
    adopted for the purpose of reducing the emission of greenhouse gases. It also found the
    “project’s greenhouse gas emissions are determined to have a less than cumulatively
    significant impact on global climate change.”
    D.     Contentions of the Parties
    Plaintiffs contend the EIR made an erroneous legal conclusion regarding the effect
    of California’s cap-and-trade regulation, which resulted in the additional erroneous legal
    conclusion that compliance with the cap-and-trade regulation would reduce the project’s
    greenhouse gas emissions to zero. In plaintiffs’ view, compliance with California’s cap-
    and-trade regulation will not actually reduce greenhouse gas emissions because
    allowances are authorizations to emit greenhouse gases. Plaintiffs further argue the EIR
    failed to accurately disclose and analyze greenhouse gas emissions (i.e., is misleading),
    28.
    which violated CEQA by precluding informed decision-making and informed
    participation by the public.
    In response, County argues:
    “It is true that much of the [greenhouse gas] reductions associated with the
    Project will come from the Refinery’s participation in the Cap-and-Trade
    program. [Citation.] But [plaintiffs] mischaracterize the Cap-and-Trade
    program and goals, and fail to understand how the program works to reduce
    [greenhouse gas] emissions within California.” (Fn. omitted.)
    County also argues that plaintiffs have cited no authority that shows the EIR’s
    methodology for analyzing the project’s participation in the cap-and-trade program is not
    valid.
    E.     Framing the Issues
    1.     Misleading Disclosure?
    The first issue we consider is whether the EIR’s discussion of greenhouse gas
    emissions is misleading. Plaintiffs have argued the discussion is misleading without
    citing section 21083.05 or Guidelines section 15064.4—“the principal statutory and
    regulatory provisions governing CEQA analysis of greenhouse gas emissions.” (Center
    for Biological Diversity, supra, 62 Cal.4th at p. 219.) Consequently, our analysis of this
    issue is based on CEQA general requirements for EIR’s and is separate from our
    consideration of the related issue about whether the EIR is inaccurate (and thus
    misleading) because of the erroneous application of the cap-and-trade program.
    2.     Applying Cap-and-Trade
    The second issue presented by the contentions of the parties can be framed as
    follows: When determining the significance of a project’s greenhouse gas emissions, can
    the volume of the project’s estimated emissions be decreased to reflect the use of
    compliance instruments (both allowances and offset credits) under the cap-and-trade
    program? The following three points provide context for this issue. First, this issue has
    not been decided in a published opinion and, therefore, presents a question of first
    29.
    impression. Second, the issue is predominantly a question of correct procedure and,
    therefore, it is a legal question subject to de novo review. (Center for Biological
    Diversity, supra, 62 Cal.4th at p. 219.) Third, the cap-and-trade program is a statewide
    regulation designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and, therefore, whether County
    properly applied Guidelines section 15064.4, subdivision (b)(3) is relevant to whether
    County committed legal error. (See pt. III.B.3, ante.)
    F.     Greenhouse Gas Analysis in EIR is Not Misleading
    1.      Basic Principles
    Guidelines section 15140 requires EIR’s to “be written in plain language” and
    allows them to “use appropriate graphics so decisionmakers and the public can rapidly
    understand the documents.” Guidelines section 15144 recognizes that drafting an EIR
    necessarily involves some degree of forecasting and that foreseeing the unforeseeable is
    not possible. Despite this limitation on forecasting, the section still requires a lead
    agency to “use its best effort to find out and disclose all that it reasonably can.”
    (Guidelines, § 15144.)
    Guidelines section 15064.4, subdivision (a) states an “agency should make a good-
    faith effort, based to the extent possible on scientific and factual data, to describe,
    calculate or estimate the amount of greenhouse gas emissions resulting from a project.”
    The reference to a “good-faith effort” also appears in Guidelines sections 15003 and
    15151. For instance, “CEQA does not require technical perfection in an EIR, but rather
    adequacy, completeness, and a good-faith effort at full disclosure.” (Guidelines, § 15003,
    subd. (i).)
    2.      The Disclosure Was Adequate
    Applying the foregoing principles to the EIR’s description of the project’s
    greenhouse gas emissions, we conclude the EIR’s disclosure was not misleading or
    30.
    deceptive, but adequately describes the method, data and conclusions reached about
    greenhouse gas emissions and the impact on global climate warming.
    We recognize that the EIR refers to “emission reductions” and “offsets” through
    cap-and-trade in a way that could be read as suggesting the project’s compliance with the
    cap-and-trade program actually would cause the number of greenhouse gas molecules
    emitted by the project to be reduced. For example, Tables 4.5-2 and 4.5-3 each contain
    headings referring to greenhouse gas “Emission Reductions” and “Emissions After
    Application of Emission Reductions.”
    However, under a standard of objective reasonableness, when the tables are
    considered along with the related narrative provided by the EIR, it is clear that (1) the
    reductions and offsets listed in the EIR’s tables and referred to in the text include the use
    of “allowances” and (2) allowances authorize the refinery to emit greenhouse gases,
    rather than requiring the refinery to eliminate those emissions. The EIR informs the
    reader that the use of an allowance means the allowance is surrendered under the cap-
    and-trade program to authorize emissions by the project. Consequently, the reader is
    informed the surrender of an allowance does not mean the project will emit fewer
    molecules of greenhouse gas than it would have emitted if the allowance had not been
    surrendered. Rather, it means the project has complied with the cap-and-trade program
    by establishing its emissions are authorized by the compliance instrument.
    Accordingly, an objectively reasonable person who has reviewed the tables and
    read the related narrative would understand the references to reductions and offsets did
    not mean fewer molecules of greenhouse gas are being emitted by the project. Instead,
    that person would understand the references meant that the project’s greenhouse gas
    emissions would comply with the cap-and-trade program because those emissions would
    be counterbalanced by the surrender of compliance instruments. In sum, the disclosure in
    the EIR provided an adequate and complete description of how allowances and offset
    credits were used to comply with the cap-and-trade program and, therefore, was not
    31.
    misleading about the actual consequences of the refinery’s compliance with the cap-and-
    trade program. (See Guidelines, §§ 15003, subd. (i), 15151.)
    The conclusion that the EIR was adequate and not misleading in its description of
    greenhouse gas emissions is not undermined by the fact that the EIR could have been
    drafted in a way that used the words “reductions” and “offset” with more precision and
    accuracy. CEQA does not demand an EIR be perfect. (See Guidelines, §§ 15003, subd.
    (i), 15151.) Under the circumstances presented in this case, neither the decision makers
    nor the public would be better informed about the consequences of the refinery’s
    compliance with the cap-and-trade program if a writ of mandate was issued requiring the
    EIR to substitute other words in place of its references to reductions and offsets. Thus,
    requiring an additional disclosure would accomplish little.
    G.     Application of Cap-and-Trade Program to Significance Determination
    Here, the EIR based its determination that the project’s greenhouse gas emissions
    would be less than significant based on the volume of those emissions after the
    application of compliance instruments (both allowances and offset credits) under the cap-
    and-trade program. The question of law presented is whether this application of the cap-
    and-trade program violated CEQA. We conclude it did not violate CEQA. Our
    conclusion is based on Guidelines section 15064.4.
    1.      Estimated Emissions
    County complied with the provision stating “[a] lead agency should make a good-
    faith effort, based to the extent possible on scientific and factual data, to describe,
    calculate or estimate the amount of greenhouse gas emissions resulting from a project.”
    (Guidelines, § 15064.4, subd. (a).) Tables 4.5-2 and 4.5-3 in the EIR clearly set forth the
    proposed project’s total annual greenhouse gas emissions, excluding and including main
    line rail operations. The proposed project’s total annual greenhouse gas emissions,
    excluding main line rail operations, were calculated to be 88,248.9 metric tons of CO2e
    32.
    per year. When main line rail operations were included, the amount was 137,886.9
    metric tons of CO2e per year. We conclude these disclosures constitute “a good-faith
    effort … to describe, calculate or estimate the amount of greenhouse gas emissions
    resulting from [the] project” in accordance with Guidelines section 15064.4, subdivision
    (a). Plaintiffs do not argue the EIR’s estimates of the amount of greenhouse gas
    emissions failed to meet this standard. Instead, plaintiffs challenge the EIR’s use and
    description of compliance instruments to counterbalance the estimated emissions.
    2.       Cap-And-Trade is a Statewide Plan
    The text of Guidelines section 15064.4 also presents the question of whether
    California’s cap-and-trade program constitutes “regulations or requirements adopted to
    implement a statewide … plan for the reduction of mitigation of greenhouse gas
    emissions.” (Guidelines, § 15064.4, subd. (b)(3).) As described in part III.B.4, ante, the
    cap-and-trade program is set forth in regulations promulgated by CARB for all of
    California for the purpose of addressing greenhouse gas emissions. (See Cal. Code
    Regs., tit. 17, §§ 95801-96022 [cap-and-trade program].) In addition, the cap-and-trade
    program was implemented by the adoption of regulations and, therefore, need not comply
    with the criteria in the second sentence of Guidelines section 15064.4, subdivision (b)(3),
    which applies to requirements and omits any reference to regulations.10 Consequently,
    we conclude Guidelines section 15064.4, subdivision (b)(3) directed County to consider
    the project’s compliance with the cap-and-trade program in assessing the significance of
    environmental impacts from the project’s greenhouse gas emissions. The EIR complied
    with this direction.
    10      The sentence provides: “Such requirements must be adopted by the relevant
    public agency through a public review process and must reduce or mitigate the project’s
    incremental contribution of greenhouse gas emissions.” (Guidelines, § 15064.4, subd.
    (b)(3), italics added.)
    33.
    3.     County’s Reliance on the Cap-And-Trade Program was Appropriate
    The next question involving the interpretation and application of the Guidelines
    section 15064.4 is whether its directive to consider the project’s compliance with the cap-
    and-trade program “when assessing the significance of impacts from the greenhouse gas
    emissions on the environment” allows County to determine the environmental impacts of
    the project’s greenhouse gas emissions were less than significant based on the project’s
    compliance with the program. (Guidelines, § 15064.4, subd. (b)(3).) We interpret
    Guidelines section 15064.4, subdivision (b)(3) as authorizing County to determine a
    project’s greenhouse gas emissions will have a less than significant effect on the
    environment based on the project’s compliance with the cap-and-trade program.
    Compliance was a factor to be considered and, in the circumstances presented, is part of
    the substantial evidence supporting the finding that the impact of the emissions was less
    than significant.
    The importance of the overall effect of a statewide plan, rather than the plan’s
    specific effect on the particular project’s emissions was illustrated in Center for
    Biological Diversity. There, our Supreme Court stated the significance of the
    environmental impact of greenhouse gases does not depend on where they are emitted
    because of the global scope of the climate change impact. (Center for Biological
    Diversity, supra, 62 Cal.4th at pp. 219-220.) Thus, examining the amount and location of
    the refinery’s emissions is too narrow of an inquiry when the ultimate question is global
    climate change. The Supreme Court also stated:
    “For projects, like the present residential and commercial development,
    which are designed to accommodate long-term growth in California’s
    population and economic activity, this fact gives rise to an argument that a
    certain amount of greenhouse gas emissions is as inevitable as population
    growth. Under this view, a significance criterion framed in terms of
    efficiency is superior to a simple numerical threshold because CEQA is not
    intended as a population control measure.” (Id. at p. 220.)
    34.
    By comparison, the modification of the refinery is designed to accommodate long-
    term growth in California’s population and economic activity that expresses itself in
    increased demand for petroleum products. This increased demand will exist whether or
    not the project is approved. Therefore, an inquiry into significance that is based on
    compliance with a program that sets limits and requirements for California’s petroleum
    refining industry as a whole is a rational approach to regulating that industry’s
    contribution to global climate change.
    The idea underlying the cap-and-trade program is not that capped facilities relying
    on allowances will decrease their greenhouse gas emissions and help the state achieve its
    target, but that the limited allocation and use of allowances means they are not available
    for use elsewhere, which affects California’s refining industry as a whole. Specifically,
    the use or expenditure of allowances will diminish the supply of allowances, which will
    cause their price to rise and incentivize investment in technologies and equipment that
    reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Consequently, the overall (i.e., cumulative) impact of
    the cap-and-trade program cannot be judged by whether a particular project uses
    allowances, offset credits, or reduces its emissions. Rather, the significance of the
    cumulative impact should be assessed based on the program as a whole. Under the cap-
    and-trade program, the allowances issued for each compliance period decrease and this
    decrease provides the mechanism for meeting the targets for reduced greenhouse gas
    emissions in California. Based on this industry-wide perspective, we conclude it is
    appropriate for a lead agency to conclude a project compliance with the cap-and-trade
    program provides a sufficient basis for determining the impact of the project’s
    greenhouse gas emissions will be less than significant.
    Our conclusion about compliance with the cap-and-trade program is consistent
    with the diagram of the process for determining the significance of greenhouse gas
    emissions set forth in Figure 7 of Air District’s May 2012 draft Guidance for Assessing
    and Mitigating Air Quality Impacts. The diagram “provides for a tiered approach in
    35.
    assessing significance of project specific [greenhouse gas] emission increases.” The first
    tier addresses whether project is exempt from CEQA. If it is, no further analysis is
    required. If the project is not exempt, the lead agency proceeds to the second tier and
    considers whether the project complies with an adopted, statewide, regional or local plan
    for reduction or mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. If the answer is “yes,” then the
    inquiry is completed with the agency concluding the impact of those emissions is less
    than significant. Our interpretation and application of Guidelines section 15064.4,
    subdivision (b)(3) is consistent with the second tier in Air District’s guidance.
    H.     Displaced Truck Trips as an Emissions Reduction
    1.     EIR’s Contents
    One of the line items in Tables 4.5-2 and 4.5-3 under the heading for greenhouse
    gas emission reductions referred to displaced truck trips (San Francisco Bay Area to
    Fresno). The metric tons of CO2e per year for this line item was given as a negative
    4,875.3. The EIR explained this decrease in truck trips and emissions by stating Alon
    USA anticipated that it would more than double shipments of diesel and gasoline to the
    Fresno market by pipeline, which would mean a smaller amount of these fuels would
    need to be delivered by truck from refineries located in the San Francisco Bay Area. The
    EIR estimated the increased volume of fuel delivered by pipeline as approximately
    3,750,000 barrels per year, which would replace 7,400 transport truck trips per year.
    The EIR relied on a December 2013 Air Quality/Global Climate Change Analysis
    prepared by Ashworth Leininger Group, which was attached to the EIR as Appendix B.
    That document (1) stated Alon USA expects to ship by pipeline a total of 19,000 barrels
    per day of diesel and gasoline from the refinery to the Fresno market; (2) compared this
    amount to a baseline figure of 8,736 barrels per day; and (3) concluded approximately
    10,300 fewer barrels per day would need to be delivered to the Fresno area by truck from
    San Francisco Bay Area refineries. When the figure of 10,300 barrels per day is
    36.
    multiplied by 365 days per year, the total is 3,759,500 barrels per year, which supports
    the EIR’s estimate of 3,750,000 fewer barrels of fuel needing to be delivered to Fresno by
    truck each year. The document also stated: “Emissions reductions associated with these
    displaced truck trips were calculated using EMFAC2011 emission factors, based on
    estimated round trip distance between San Francisco Bay Area refineries and Fresno.”
    2.     Plaintiffs’ Contentions
    Plaintiffs contend the EIR’s reliance on emissions reduction from displaced truck
    trips is speculative and unsupported. In plaintiffs’ view, the EIR does not support its
    claimed reduction of 4,875 metric tons of CO2e per year from third-party truck trips
    hundreds of miles away with any data or analysis and, therefore, the claim is not
    supported by substantial evidence. Plaintiffs argue facts are missing from the
    information presented and, as a result, it is mere speculation that Bay Area trucks (1) will
    stop driving to Fresno and (2) will not deliver the fuel that would have gone to Fresno to
    locations a similar distance from the Bay Area.
    3.     No Prejudicial Error Shown
    Based on our earlier conclusion that County correctly relied on compliance with
    the cap-and-trade program to conclude the environmental impact of the project’s
    greenhouse gas emissions was less than significant, it follows that an erroneous
    determination about reductions from displaced delivery truck trips could not have
    resulted in prejudice because that information need not have been disclosed for County to
    have reached its determination about significance. Thus, the information plaintiffs
    contend is missing from the EIR or its supporting documents is insubstantial and not
    grounds for relief. (Neighbors for Smart Rail, supra, 57 Cal.4th at p. 463; see § 21005,
    subd. (b) [prejudice is not presumed].)
    Alternatively, the analysis presented by Ashworth Leininger Group constitutes
    substantial evidence in the record from which County, in its role as trier of fact,
    37.
    reasonably could infer that the number of truck trips from the Bay Area to Fresno would
    decrease as a result of the delivery of fuel from the refinery to the Fresno market by
    pipeline. We recognize conflicting inferences could be drawn from the evidence
    presented, but the substantial evidence standard only requires sufficient evidence from
    which any reasonable trier of fact could find the fact in question. (See California Native
    Plant Society v. City of Rancho Cordova (2009) 
    172 Cal.App.4th 603
    , 639 [under
    substantial evidence standard, plaintiffs have burden of showing lead agency could not
    have reasonably made the factual determination challenged].) Here, that deferential
    standard is met.
    IV.    RAIL TRANSPORT SAFETY*
    A.     Contentions of the Parties
    Plaintiffs assert the project will dramatically increase the amount of crude oil
    shipped into California by rail, a type of transport that involves significant risks.
    Plaintiffs contend the EIR erroneously understated the risk of a rail accident involving the
    release of hazardous materials and relied on the understatement in finding the risk was
    not significant. Plaintiffs also contend the EIR erroneously failed to describe all of the
    project’s rail impacts, such as air pollution emitted by the diesel locomotives, based on
    the mistaken legal conclusion that federal law prevented it from doing so.
    In response, County contends the EIR adequately disclosed and analyzed the
    project’s rail transport impacts, including the probability and impact of a train accident.
    County argues it did not abuse its discretion in calculating the probability of a rail
    accident—a risk the EIR concluded was low. County also argues the board of
    supervisors considered plaintiffs’ position about the probability of a train accident
    resulting in the release of crude oil and the underlying statistical information, which was
    set forth in the administrative record. Thus, County concludes the decision makers and
    *      See footnote, ante, page 1.
    38.
    the public were not misled about the various ways to interpret the federal data for
    accidents and incidents. Furthermore, County argues the EIR evaluated the
    environmental consequences of a rail incident, determined the impacts were “significant
    and unavoidable,” and imposed several mitigation measures to reduce the potential
    impacts.
    B.     The Erroneous Calculation of Risk
    1.     Overview of Federal Regulations and Reporting
    Plaintiffs’ claim of error challenges the EIR’s use of federal data relating to
    railroad safety. The data is reported by railroads to the Federal Railroad Administration,
    which compiles the information and discloses it to the public. To place the railroad
    safety data in context, we begin with a brief overview of the federal regulatory program
    managed by the Federal Railroad Administration.
    “The Federal Railroad Administration is an administration in the Department of
    Transportation.” (
    49 U.S.C. § 103
    , subd. (a).) Congress has directed it to “consider the
    assignment and maintenance of safety as the highest priority.” (
    49 U.S.C. § 103
    , subd.
    (c).) The consideration of safety is addressed in part by part 225 of title 49 of the Code of
    Federal Regulations, which requires the reporting of railroad accidents and incidents to
    the Federal Railroad Administration. The part’s purpose “is to provide the Federal
    Railroad Administration with accurate information concerning the hazards and risks that
    exist on the Nation’s railroads.” (
    49 C.F.R. § 225.1
    .) The agency needs this information
    to effectively carry out the regulatory responsibilities assigned to it by Congress. (Ibid.)
    The agency also “uses this information for determining comparative trends of railroad
    safety and to develop hazard elimination and risk reduction programs that focus on
    preventing railroad injuries and accidents.” (Ibid.)
    The regulations require railroads to submit monthly reports of all railroad
    accidents and incidents to the Federal Railroad Administration. (
    49 C.F.R. § 225.11
    ,
    39.
    subd. (a).) Railroad accidents and incidents are divided into three major groups for
    reporting purposes—train accidents, highway-rail grade crossing incidents, and other
    incidents involving death, injury or occupational illness. (Ibid.; 
    49 C.F.R. § 225.19
    ,
    subd. (a) [primary groups of accidents/incidents].)
    “Train accidents” is the term used in the EIR and administrative record to
    designate safety-related events involving on-track equipment resulting in monetary
    damage to the rail equipment and track above a prescribed amount. (
    49 C.F.R. § 225.19
    ,
    subd. (c) [the amount was $9,900 for 2013 and $10,500 for 2014].) The federal
    regulations use the term “rail equipment accident/incident,” not “train accident,”11 and
    these events are reported on Form FRA F 6180.54, Rail Equipment Accident/Incident
    Report. (
    49 C.F.R. § 225.21
    , subd. (a).)
    Highway-rail grade crossing accidents/incidents are any impact between a rail and
    highway user at a designated crossing site and are reported on Form FRA F 6180.57,
    Highway-Rail Crossing Grade Accident/Incident Report. (
    49 C.F.R. § 225.19
    , subd. (b).)
    The regulations address the possibility that the impact between a rail and a highway user
    results in damages to on-track equipment exceeding the threshold defining a train
    accident. “[W]henever a highway-rail grade crossing accident/incident results in
    damages greater than the current reporting threshold to railroad on-track equipment …
    that accident/incident shall be reported” on the form used for train accidents—that is,
    Form FRA F 6180.54. (
    49 C.F.R. § 225.19
    , subd. (b).) Thus, the first two groups
    overlap, and an accident/incident that satisfies both definitions is reported as a train
    accident.
    The third group—other incidents—covers any death, injury, or occupational
    illness of a railroad employee that is not the result of a train accident or highway-rail
    incident. (
    49 C.F.R. § 225.19
    , subd. (d).) Other incidents, which are about three times
    11     This opinion uses the term “train accident” rather than the regulatory phrase.
    40.
    more frequent than either train accidents or highway-rail incidents, are reported on Form
    FRA F 6180.55a, Railroad Injury and Illness Summary. (
    49 C.F.R. § 225.19
    , subd. (d).)
    2.     Safety Data in the Administrative Record
    The Federal Railroad Administration compiles the reports submitted by railroads
    and makes the data available to the public. The EIR lists the website where the data can
    be found. The administrative record contains the data in a Federal Railroad
    Administration document titled “1.12 – TEN YEAR ACCIDENT / INCIDENT
    OVERVIEW [¶] BY CALENDAR YEAR (January-December),” which covers the period
    from 2003 through 2012. For that period, the total number of train accidents was given
    as 25,434; highway-rail incidents as 25,307; and other accidents/incidents as 78,556. The
    federal document combines the three groups and gives the total number of
    accident/incidents for the 10-year period as 129,297. It also lists the number of
    hazardous material releases for each year, which ranged from a low of 21 to a high of 46.
    The total number of releases over the 10-year period was reported as 287.
    Other information provided in the federal document included total train miles for
    each year and for the 10-year period. Total train mileage for the period was over 7
    billion—specifically, 7,505,663,265. When this total is divided by the number of
    releases of hazardous material for the period (i.e., 287), it produces an average of
    26,152,137 train miles per hazardous material release.
    In September 2014, one of the plaintiffs sent an email to the United States
    Department of Transportation with questions about the Federal Railroad Administration’s
    online safety data. Judy H. Cox of the department’s Office of Safety sent a responding
    email later that month. According to Cox’s email, the term “Accident/Incident” is “used
    to describe the entire list of reportable events” and “[a]ccidents/incidents are divided into
    three major groups for reporting purposes.” Cox listed the groups as “[t]rain accidents,”
    41.
    “[h]ighway-rail grade crossing incidents,” and “[o]ther incidents.”12 Cox also identified
    the reporting form used for each group, which corresponded with the form name and
    number set forth in the Code of Federal Regulations. (See pt. IV.B.1, ante.) Cox’s email
    also stated, with the three groups in mind, “the information that we capture for Hazmat
    releases is done with the information for ‘Train Accidents.’”13
    For purposes of this appeal, we summarize three points about the federal data.
    First, “accidents/incidents” is a broad term that refers to all reportable events. Second,
    the term “accidents/incidents” and the term “train accidents” have different meanings,
    with “train accidents” being a specific type of reportable event that is a subset of
    “accidents/incidents.” Third, hazardous material releases are reported under “train
    accidents.”
    3.     EIR’s Contents
    Chapter 4.6 of the EIR addresses hazards and hazardous materials. The potential
    impacts discussed included hazards “to the public or environment through reasonably
    foreseeable upset and accident conditions involving the release of hazardous materials
    into the environment.” (Boldface omitted.) The EIR separately discussed the potential
    release of hazardous materials associated with (1) construction activities, (2) operations
    of the modified refinery, and (3) rail transport. As to the latter, the EIR stated the
    “project will increase the transport of crude by rail and increase the potential hazards
    12    Consistent with Cox’s explanation, the EIR contains a footnote stating: “Total
    accident/incidents include train accidents, highway-rail accidents, and other incidents.”
    13     Cox described the reportable releases of hazardous materials by stating, “We do
    not capture ALL hazmat accidents, only those that hit the dollar threshold. Hence, the
    number of hazmat accidents [provided in our data] are those that are reportable to the
    F[ederal Railroad Administration].” For purposes of this opinion, we refer to releases of
    hazardous materials as including only reportable accidents, which is the approach used
    by the EIR.
    42.
    associated with crude rail transport.” The transportation hazards were identified as fire,
    explosions and hazardous material releases.
    The Federal Railroad Administration’s data about train accidents, highway-rail
    incidents and other incidents for the 10-year period from January 2003 to December 2012
    were summarized in Table 4.6-3 and also described in the EIR’s text. Table 4.6-3
    provided yearly information, but did not include totals or averages for the 10-year period.
    Table 4.6-3 accurately described the difference between “Total Accidents/Incidents” and
    “Train Accidents.” (See fn. 11, ante.)
    The EIR stated that the yearly train accident rate over the 10-year period varied
    between 2.3 and 4.4 accidents per million miles and averaged 3.4 accidents per million
    miles traveled. It also stated: “Of the train accidents reported during the 10-year period
    (a total of 128,974), about one percent … resulted in a release of hazardous materials
    (287/128,974 = 0.0022 or 0.22%).”14 The EIR then took the 10-year average of 3.4
    accidents per million miles and multiplied it by the estimate of the proposed project’s
    yearly rail miles (874,553). This multiplication resulted in the prediction of 2.97
    accidents per year associated with the project. The 2.97 accidents per year were
    multiplied by 0.0022 (0.22%)—the alleged probability that a train accident would result
    in a release of hazardous materials—which generated an answer of 0.0065 accidents per
    year. The EIR described 0.0065 accidents per year as “the estimated probability of
    hazardous material releases associated with rail transportation of materials to/from the
    refinery.” The EIR converted this figure into the estimate that once every 150 years a
    14      As explained below, this sentence is not accurate because the correct number of
    “train accidents” for the period was 25,434, not 128,974. The latter number corresponds
    to the “total accidents/incidents,” which the Federal Railroad Administration document
    reports as 129,297.
    As to the discrepancy between 128,974 and 129,297, it appears to be the result of
    the EIR’s use of numbers for the years 2009 through 2012 that are slightly different from
    those stated in the Federal Railroad Administration document.
    43.
    release of hazardous material would occur as the result of the rail transport associated
    with the project. The EIR also stated: “The life time of the rail facilities is considered to
    be 30 years, therefore, a rail accident resulting in a release is not expected to occur within
    the life time of the facilities. The hazards associated with rail transport are expected to be
    less than significant.”
    4.     Plaintiffs’ Allegation of Error
    Plaintiffs contend that when the correct data is plugged into the formula (i.e.,
    methodology) used in the EIR, the resulting estimate of the probability of a release of
    hazardous materials from a train accident results in the conclusion that such a release is
    likely to occur during the project’s lifetime. Plaintiffs’ brief sets forth the formula and
    plugs in what plaintiffs contend are the correct figures. Plaintiffs then set forth the
    figures the EIR used in the formula and highlight the differences between those figures
    and what they contend are the correct figures.
    In plaintiffs’ view, 25,434 is the correct number of train accidents for the 10-year
    period and the EIR erroneously used 128,974, which is the total accidents/incidents for
    the period. Plaintiffs further contend the EIR’s division of 287, the total number of
    hazardous material releases reported, by 128,974 instead of 25,434 produced an
    erroneously low estimate of the probability of a hazardous material release from a train
    accident. Consequently, plaintiffs claim the EIR’s estimate of 0.22 percent as the
    probability of a train accident resulting in the release of hazardous materials was too low.
    As explained below, plaintiffs have identified an erroneous use of the federal data
    relating to train accidents and reportable events. The correct number of train accidents
    for the 10-year period was 25,434, not the 128,974 given in the EIR. The EIR’s
    misstatement inflated the number of train accidents about fivefold, which caused the
    estimate of the probability of a hazardous material release per accident to be about one
    fifth of the correct probability.
    44.
    5.    Confirmation of Alleged Errors
    The EIR stated: “Of the train accidents reported during the 10-year period (a total
    of 128,974), about one percent … resulted in the release of hazardous materials
    (287/128,974 = 0.0022 or 0.22%).” (Italics added.) This statement gives the wrong
    number for the train accidents reported during the 10-year period. A Federal Railroad
    Administration document shows that (1) the train accidents reported for the 10-year
    period totaled 25,434 and (2) the total accident/incidents reported for the 10-year period
    was 129,297.
    We rely on the information contained in the Federal Railroad Administration
    document because County does not argue that information is incorrect. Furthermore,
    County does not cite other evidence in the administrative record showing train accidents
    for the period actually were the 128,974 given in the EIR and not the 25,434 stated in the
    Federal Railroad Administration document. Therefore, we conclude the EIR’s use of the
    128,974 figure as the number of train accidents for the 10-year period was a factual error.
    In other words, the EIR’s statement that the total number of train accidents for the period
    was 128,974 is not supported by any evidence, much less substantial evidence. Thus, the
    use of 128,974 as the total number of train accidents constitutes an abuse of discretion
    pursuant to section 21168.5.
    Furthermore, the factual error about the number of train accidents infected the
    EIR’s calculation of the historical average of the hazardous materials releases per train
    accident for the 10-year period. This historical average was used as an estimate of the
    probability of a hazardous materials release from a train carrying crude oil to the project.
    Consequently, the estimated probability also was tainted by the error in calculating the
    historical average. Also, the reciprocal of the estimated probability was used to predict
    the frequency with which the project’s rail traffic would result in a train accident that
    releases hazardous materials. It necessarily follows that the predicted frequency also was
    tainted by the error. In sum, the EIR misstated the federal data when it stated “about one
    45.
    percent of the train accidents resulted in a release of hazardous materials (287/128,974 =
    0.0022 or 0.22%)” and perpetuated the error by using the figure of 0.22 percent to
    calculate the proposed project’s probability of causing a hazardous material release.
    To further explain the error, we describe two ways to correct the EIR’s erroneous
    presentation of the federal data. First, the EIR’s use of the term “train accidents” could
    be changed to “total accidents/incidents” or its equivalent, “reportable events.” With that
    textual change, the calculation of 0.22 percent would have accurately stated the rate at
    which accidents/incidents resulted in the release of hazardous materials and that rate
    would have been an adequate estimate of that probability that a future accident/incident
    would result in a release.
    Second and alternatively, the error in the EIR could have been corrected by using
    the correct number of train accidents, which would have led to an accurate calculation of
    the probability that a train accident would result in the release of hazardous materials.
    Such a calculation would have divided the number of releases (287) by the number of
    train accidents (25,434), not by the total accidents/incidents (129,297). A calculation
    using the correct figures would have estimated the probability that a train accident
    resulted in a release of hazardous materials at 1.13 percent, which is about five times
    higher than the erroneous estimate of 0.22 percent stated in the EIR.
    Assuming the second type of correction had been made, the EIR’s erroneous
    estimate of the probability of a hazardous material release associated with rail
    transportation to and from the refinery as 0.0065 (0.65%) per year would have been
    corrected as follows. Using 874,553 as the project’s annual rail miles traveled and a train
    accident rate of 3.4 accidents per million miles traveled produces an estimate that the
    trains going to and from the project would experience about 2.97 accidents per year.
    Plaintiffs do not contest this calculation and, therefore, we conclude the EIR properly
    estimated the project would result in about 2.97 train accidents per year. Multiplying the
    2.97 accidents per year by the correct estimate of the probability a train accident would
    46.
    result in the release of hazardous material (1.13%) yields an estimate that the probability
    of a hazardous material release is 0.0336 (3.36%) per year, not the 0.0065 (0.65%) stated
    in the EIR.
    The EIR’s errors tainted its statement that the project would increase the frequency
    of a rail accident resulting in a hazardous materials release to once every 150 years.
    Using the proper estimate of the probability of a hazardous material release, the EIR
    should have stated the frequency was increased to once every 29.7 years, which is one
    year divided by the probability of 0.0336 accidents per year.
    6.     Checking the Answer Using a Simplified Approach to the Data
    At an early age, math students are taught to check their work. One way is simply
    to redo the calculations a second time. Another way—a way that is encouraged because
    it reduces the chances of repeating an earlier error—is to check the result by adopting a
    different mathematical route to arrive at the answer. When the same answer is reached
    by two different routes, the confidence that the answer is correct is higher than when the
    same answer is obtained by retracing the original calculations. Here, we check our
    answers by employing a different mathematical route and see if the answers generated by
    each approach are the same. The mathematical formula used in the EIR is more
    complicated than necessary, which means we can check our answers using a simpler
    approach—that is, a shorter route for arriving at an estimate of the probability the project
    will result in the release of hazardous materials.
    The simplest formula for estimating the likelihood the project will result in a
    hazardous material release focuses on total releases and total mileage. The formula
    includes the following steps:
    Step One. Identify the total number of hazardous material releases over the
    10-year period. That number is 287 releases.
    Step Two. Identify the total number of rail miles logged in the United
    States for the 10-year period. That number is 7,505,663,265 miles.
    47.
    Step Three. Calculate the number of miles per release for the period by
    dividing the total miles (7,505,663,265) by the total number of releases
    (287). The result is 26,152,137 miles per release. This number means that,
    on average over the 10-year period, slightly over 26 million rail miles were
    traveled for each hazardous material release.
    Step Four. Identify the number of rail miles per year associated with the
    proposed project. That number is 874,553 miles per year.
    Step Five. Assume the likelihood of a release from the trains delivering
    crude oil to the refinery is the same as the historical average calculated in
    Step Three. Compare that average to the 874,553 miles of rail traffic
    associated with the project for one year. There are two ways to make this
    comparison.
    One way divides the average of 26,152,137 miles per release by the
    project’s 874,553 miles per year. The miles cancel out and the answer of
    29.9 is expressed in years per release. In other words, the project is
    predicted to result in one release of hazardous materials every 29.9 years.
    A second way to make the comparison is to switch the dividend and
    divisor—that is, divide 874,553 miles per year by 26,152,137 miles per
    release. Again, the miles cancel out. The answer of 0.0334 is expressed in
    releases per year. This answer estimates that an average of 0.0334 releases
    will occur per year, which is the same as stating there is a 3.34 percent
    chance of a release in a given year.
    We performed these alternate calculations to check the figures generated when we
    plugged the correct numbers into the formulas used in the EIR. Our calculations under
    the EIR’s approach estimated the probability of a hazardous material release from the rail
    traffic associated with the project at 0.0336 (3.36%) releases per year or 29.7 years per
    release. (See pt. IV.B.5, ante.) The slight difference in the answers produced by the
    simplified approach and answers generated by plugging the correct numbers into the
    EIR’s approach is due to rounding off numbers. Therefore, the simplified formula
    confirms the results we achieved by plugging the correct numbers into County’s formula
    and, thus, corroborates our conclusion that the EIR contains factual error.
    48.
    C.      County’s Attempts to Justify Its Calculations
    1.     Methodology
    County’s appellate brief boldly asserts: “There is no math error, just a difference
    in methodology.” County contends the issue is one of factual interpretation and it
    interprets the federal data to mean “any potential reportable event (i.e.,
    ‘Accident/Incident’) has the potential to result in a hazmat release—not just ‘Train
    Accidents.’”
    County’s argument has a number of flaws that render it unconvincing. First, the
    assertion of fact that any reportable event has the potential to result in a release of
    hazardous materials is not supported by a citation to evidence. Ordinarily, a factual
    assertion set forth in an appellate brief is supported “by a citation to the volume and page
    number of the record where the matter appears.” (Cal. Rules of Court, rule
    8.204(a)(1)(C); see Sky River LLC v. County of Kern (2013) 
    214 Cal.App.4th 720
    , 741,
    [rule applies to matters referenced at any point in the brief, not just the brief’s statement
    of facts].) This court cannot treat such alternative facts as true simply because a party’s
    brief has asserted those facts were true. Such an expectation is not only illogical, but
    contrary to the rules of appellate practice that govern this court. “Contentions based on
    factual assertions that are not supported by references to the record violate rule
    8.204(a)(1)(C) of the California Rules of Court and may be disregarded.” (In re
    Marriage of Ruelas (2007) 
    154 Cal.App.4th 339
    , 344.)
    Second, the assertion of fact is contradicted by evidence in the record. The Cox
    email of September 2014 explained the federal data by stating “the information that we
    capture for Hazmat releases is done with the information for ‘Train Accidents.’” Thus,
    County’s statement that any reportable event has the potential to result in a release of
    hazardous materials, even if possible in some abstract sense, is not how hazardous
    material releases are actually reported to the Federal Railroad Administration and is not
    49.
    how the data is presented to the public.15 Consequently, the EIR attempts to use the data
    in a way that contradicts how it was compiled and published.
    Third and most important, County fails to recognize that the error in the EIR
    involved the mislabeling of federal data. The mislabeling is not addressed by its factual
    claim that any reportable event could result in a hazardous material release. If reportable
    events actually provided the best foundation for analyzing the probability of a hazardous
    material release, then the EIR could have correctly labeled the figure of 128,974 as the
    number of reportable events and then calculated hazardous material releases per
    reportable event, rather than per train accident. Next the EIR could have calculated the
    reportable events that were likely to occur as a result of the rail mileage associated with
    the project and multiplied that number by the estimate of releases per reportable event.
    Such an approach would have used the data in an internally consistent manner—that is, it
    would have made comparisons of apples to apples. Instead, the EIR erroneously applied
    the label “train accidents” to the number of reportable events, which tainted its
    subsequent calculations probabilities and risks related to train accidents.
    In summary, we reject the argument that the EIR contains no math error and the
    difference is one of methodology. The EIR clearly misstated the federal data when it
    stated (1) “the train accidents reported during the 10-year period [was] a total of 128,974”
    and (2) the percentage of train accidents resulting in a release of hazardous materials
    could be calculated by dividing 287 releases by 128,974. A properly labeled, internally
    consistent use of the federal data would have stated the “accidents/incidents” (i.e.,
    reportable events) for the 10-year period totaled 129,297 and calculated the percentage of
    15     An additional flaw in the statement is that County offers no rationale for including
    “other incidents” with the events that might cause a hazardous materials release. In
    particular, County offers no evidence showing a death, injury or occupational illness of a
    railroad employee that is not the result of the train accident or a highway-rail incident
    could have been caused by a release of hazardous materials.
    50.
    accidents/incidents resulting in a release of hazardous material by dividing 287 by
    129,297. To apply the result of this calculation to the project in a logically consistent
    way, the EIR should have calculated the accident rate for the project using data about the
    “accidents/incidents” (i.e., reportable events) rather than the 3.4 “train accidents” per
    million rail miles.16
    2.        Full Disclosure to the Decision Makers
    County asserts all of the statistical information on which it and plaintiffs based
    their calculations and each side’s method of calculation were presented and became part
    of the administrative record. Based on this view of the facts, County argues the decision
    makers and public were not misled by the EIR and all interested parties were fully
    informed of plaintiffs’ interpretation of the data before the board of supervisors certified
    the EIR and approved the project.
    County makes these assertions of fact and arguments without citing any provision
    in CEQA or the Guidelines or any principle adopted in the case law. (See Cal. Rules of
    Court, rule 8.204(a)(1)(B) [brief must support each point, if possible, by citation of
    authority].) However, the arguments were made to support County’s broader position
    that the EIR adequately analyzed and disclosed the probability and impact of a train
    accident. Thus, it appears County is contending the EIR complied with the standard for
    adequacy set forth in Guidelines section 15151, which states courts look “for adequacy,
    completeness, and a good faith effort at full disclosure.” Guidelines section 15151 also
    states the “EIR should be prepared with a sufficient degree of analysis to provide
    decisionmakers with information which enables them to make a decision which
    intelligently takes account of environmental consequences.” It also states “the
    sufficiency of an EIR is to be reviewed in the light of what is reasonably feasible.”
    16     There were 17.2 accidents/incidents per million rail miles (129,297 reportable
    events divided by 7,505.6 million rail miles).
    51.
    (Guidelines, § 15151.) “Feasible” is defined as “capable of being accomplished in a
    successful manner within a reasonable period of time, taking into account economic,
    environmental, legal, social, and technological factors.” (Guidelines, § 15364.)
    To the extent that County is arguing the EIR is adequate, complete and represents
    a good faith effort by County at full disclosure and, therefore, has complied with CEQA
    and Guidelines section 15151, we reject that argument. First, there is no evidence in the
    record showing it was not “reasonably feasible” for the EIR to use the federal safety data
    in a consistent manner when calculating the probability the rail traffic associated with the
    project would result in a release of hazardous materials. To the contrary, the federal
    safety data was contained in the administrative record and was summarized in Table 4.6-
    3 of the EIR. Thus, the data was readily available and no apparent economic,
    environmental, legal, social, or technological factors justified misstating the total number
    of reportable events as the total number of train accidents. (See Guidelines, §§ 15151,
    15364.)
    Second, the discussion in the EIR that incorrectly presented 128,974 as the total
    number of train accidents cannot be said “to provide decisionmakers with information
    which enables them to make a decision which intelligently takes account of
    environmental consequences.” (Guidelines, § 15151.) Rather, this goal is accomplished
    by providing accurate information in the EIR and the misstatement of data undercuts the
    EIR’s effectiveness as an informational document. This is particularly true when the
    decision makers adopt a statement of overriding considerations, effectively finding that
    the benefits of the project outweigh the adverse environmental consequences. When an
    EIR understates an environmental risk by fivefold, it has provided skewed information
    directly relevant to the balancing of the benefits of the project against its risks. As a
    result, that balancing process was tainted by EIR’s erroneous statement of the project’s
    risks. Consequently, the approval of the project also was tainted by the factual error.
    52.
    More generally, County’s argument about full disclosure in the administrative
    record implies that the EIR is not what’s important for purposes of CEQA, but it is the
    administrative record that determines whether the decision makers were adequately
    informed. This implication is contrary to CEQA principles and, therefore, we reject
    County’s argument. The central role of the EIR (not the administrative record) is evident
    from many principles adopted under CEQA. For instance, Guidelines section 15003
    expresses the policy that the EIR (1) is the heart of CEQA, (2) serves to protect the
    environment and to demonstrate to the public that it is being protected, (3) informs other
    governmental agencies and the public generally of the environmental impact of a
    proposed project, and (4) demonstrates to the public to the citizenry that the agency
    actually analyzed and considered the ecological implications of approving the project.
    (Guidelines, § 15003, subds. (a)-(d).) These policies support the view that the EIR
    should provide correct information and are contrary to the view that errors in the EIR are
    unimportant so long as the administrative record shows all sides of the issue were
    addressed at some point in the record.
    In addition, County’s argument fails to consider the consequences of its decision
    to certify the EIR without correcting its factual errors. Guidelines section 15090,
    subdivision (a)(3) states that prior to approving a project the lead agency shall certify that
    “[t]he final EIR reflects the lead agency’s independent judgment and analysis.”
    Accordingly, when a draft EIR contains errors, those errors should be corrected in the
    final EIR. If they are not corrected, the lead agency’s certification of the final EIR is the
    equivalent of the lead agency adopting the errors as its own. County’s argument that
    there is no CEQA problem with errors in the final EIR so long as the arguments about the
    existence of the errors have been presented to the decision makers fails to appreciate (1)
    the various functions performed by a final EIR and (2) the inference that the decision
    makers believed no error exists because they have certified the final EIR without
    correcting the error. In short, the fact the decision makers certified the EIR demonstrates
    53.
    they were misled and incorrectly believed there was no error. Accordingly, we reject
    County’s position that the EIR was adequate and the decision makers were not misled.
    V.     FEDERAL PREEMPTION AND OFF-SITE RAIL IMPACTS
    A.     Contentions of the Parties
    Plaintiffs contend the EIR erroneously excluded an analysis of some (but not all)
    of the environmental impacts resulting from the off-site main line rail operations that will
    deliver crude oil to the refinery. Plaintiffs argue this omission was caused by the
    incorrect legal conclusion that Interstate Commerce Commission Termination Act of
    1995 (ICCTA; 
    49 U.S.C. § 10101
     et seq.) preempted CEQA review. In plaintiffs’ view,
    federal law does not preempt an analysis of the environmental impacts of the project’s
    rail transport aspects and does not bar all mitigation measures that might address the off-
    site rail impacts to the environment.
    As to mitigation measures that affect train movement on the railroad’s main line,
    County argues the ICCTA prevents it from adopting that type of mitigation. As to CEQA
    review, County presents two arguments. First, County contends “the EIR disclosed and
    analyzed the impacts associated with mainline rail activities.” Second, County contends
    “the information disclosure aspect of CEQA may be preempted by ICCTA.”17
    Plaintiffs’ reply acknowledges the “ICCTA may preempt the County’s ability to
    impose certain mitigation measures on mainline rail operations,” but argues federal law
    17      County supports this contention by citing Assn. of American Railroads v. South
    Coast Air Quality Management Dist. (9th Cir. 2010) 
    622 F.3d 1094
    . In that case, the
    court concluded the ICCTA preempted the regional agency’s rules that attempted to
    reduce air pollution emitted by idling trains, imposed reporting requirements, and listed
    penalties for noncompliant railyard operators. (Assn. of American Railroads, 
    supra, at p. 1096
    .) We conclude a rule that imposes a reporting requirement on rail carriers is
    distinguishable from a CEQA requirement that a nonrailroad disclose and analyze
    indirect environmental impacts of a project, such as the impacts of increased rail traffic.
    Preparing a document that completes a CEQA review would not interfere with the rail
    carrier or its operations.
    54.
    does not prevent or excuse the EIR from disclosing and assessing the significance of
    impacts caused by the rail activities associated with the project. Plaintiffs note that the
    project proponent, Alon USA, is not a rail carrier and requiring Alon USA to
    acknowledge the impacts of the rail operations and evaluate the significance of those
    impacts would not interfere with the federal regulation of rail carriers.
    B.     Legal Principles
    1.      Overview of the ICCTA
    In 1995, Congress enacted the ICCTA and established the Surface Transportation
    Board (the successor to the Interstate Commerce Commission) to administer the federal
    regulatory scheme. A recent decision of the California Supreme Court addresses whether
    the ICCTA preempted application of CEQA to a railroad project undertaken by a state
    public entity. (Friends of Eel River v. North Coast Railroad Authority (2017) 
    3 Cal.5th 677
    , 690-691 (Eel River).) Here, the off-site rail activity will be undertaken by a private
    railroad (BNSF Railway), not a public entity.18 Consequently, Eel River is not directly
    controlling in this appeal, but does provide useful insights and principles. For instance,
    our Supreme Court set forth “the text of the ICCTA preemption provision, the overall
    function of the ICCTA, and the unifying and deregulatory purpose disclosed by
    legislative history of the federal law” in part II.C of its opinion. (Eel River, 3 Cal.5th at
    pp. 702, 706-711 [pt. II.C].) Moreover, the court addressed the preemptive effect of the
    ICCTA on state regulation, particularly its effect on CEQA, in part II.D of the opinion.
    (Eel River, supra, at pp. 711-720.)
    Generally speaking, the ICCTA requires rail carriers to establish reasonable rates,
    rules, and practices related to transportation or services; prohibits discriminatory pricing;
    and establishes common carrier obligations requiring provision of transportation or
    18     A project undertaken directly by a public entity is distinguishable from a project
    undertaken by a private party after receiving the approval of a state or local agency. (§
    21065, subds. (a), (c).)
    55.
    services on reasonable request. (
    49 U.S.C. §§ 10702
    , 10741, 11101.) Also, the ICCTA
    prohibits rail carriers from improper obstruction of through traffic or freight, and
    prohibits state or local tax discrimination against rail property. (
    49 U.S.C. §§ 10744
    ,
    11501.)
    The ICCTA assigns administrative and regulatory duties to the Surface
    Transportation Board. (
    49 U.S.C. §§ 1301
    - 1302.) A variety of transactions require its
    approval, such as railroad construction and operations, the abandonment of a rail line, or
    the discontinuation of service. (
    49 U.S.C. §§ 10901
    , 10903.) The Surface Transportation
    Board also has authority to prescribe routes and certain rates and to adjudicate claims of
    unreasonable rates arising from market dominance. (
    49 U.S.C. §§ 10705
    , 10707.)
    The statutory provisions most relevant to the preemption arguments presented in
    this appeal explicitly address the Surface Transportation Board’s jurisdiction and
    preemption. The Surface Transportation Board has exclusive jurisdiction over
    transportation by rail carriers and the construction and operation of tracks, yards and
    other facilities. (
    49 U.S.C. § 10501
    (b).) As to federal preemption, the ICCTA provides:
    “Except as otherwise provided in this part …, the remedies provided under this part …
    with respect to regulation of rail transportation are exclusive and preempt the remedies
    provided under Federal or State law.” (
    49 U.S.C. § 10501
    (b)(2).)
    The scope of (1) the ICCTA’s preemption of state regulations and (2) the Surface
    Transportation Board’s exclusive jurisdiction is determined in part by the definitions of
    “rail carrier” and “transportation.” The term “rail carrier” means a person providing
    common carrier rail transportation. (
    49 U.S.C. § 10102
    (5).) The term “transportation”
    includes services related to the movement of goods, including the delivery, handling and
    interchange of goods. (
    49 U.S.C. § 10102
    (9).)19 Our Supreme Court summarized the
    19     Under these definitions, BNSF Railway is a “rail carrier” and its delivery of tank
    cars containing crude oil to the refinery constitutes “transportation” for purposes of the
    56.
    jurisdiction and preemption provisions by stating that “under 49 U.S.C. section 10501,
    the [Surface Transportation Board] has exclusive jurisdiction over transportation by rail
    carrier, including the movement of goods and all services related to that movement. Its
    remedies are exclusive and expressly preempt state remedies ‘with respect to regulation
    of rail transportation.’ (Id., § 10501(b).)” (Eel River, supra, 3 Cal.5th at p. 711.)
    2.      Categorical Preemption
    In Eel River, the Supreme Court’s discussion of the relationship between the
    ICCTA’s preemption provision and CEQA identified two types of preempted state
    actions or regulations. (Eel River, supra, 3 Cal.5th at pp. 714-720 [pt. II.D.2].) The first
    type refers to state actions and regulations that are facially (i.e., categorically) preempted.
    (Id. at p. 716.) Categorical preemption is subdivided into two kinds. The first is any
    form of state or local permitting or preclearance that, by its nature, could be used to deny
    a rail carrier the ability to conduct some part of its operations or to proceed with activities
    authorized by the Surface Transportation Board. (Id. at pp. 716-717.) The second kind
    of categorical preemption invalidates state or local regulation of matters directly
    regulated by the Surface Transportation Board, such as the construction and operation of
    rail lines and the railroad’s rates and service. (Id. at p. 717.) A state action or regulation
    of this type is invalid as a per se unreasonable interference with interstate commerce.
    (Ibid.) Thus, both kinds of categorical preemption address the state action or regulation
    itself and the reasonableness of the state action or regulation is irrelevant. (Ibid.)
    3.      As Applied Preemption
    The second type of federal preemption covers state actions and regulations on an
    “as applied” basis. (Eel River, supra, 3 Cal.5th at p. 717.) Whether a particular state
    action or regulation is preempted depends on the degree of interference the action or
    ICCTA. In contrast, Alon USA is not a rail carrier and the refinery’s operations are not
    subject to the jurisdiction of the Surface Transportation Board.
    57.
    regulation has on railroad operations. (Ibid.) Thus, this type of preemption analysis
    requires an assessment of whether the state or local action, regulation or remedy would
    have the effect of preventing or unreasonably interfering with railroad transportation.
    (Ibid.) The phrase “preventing or unreasonably interfering with” is equated with having
    “‘the effect of foreclosing or unduly restricting a railroad’s ability to conduct any part of
    its operations or otherwise unreasonably burdening interstate commerce.’” (New Orleans
    & Gulf Coast Ry. Co. v. Barrois (5th Cir. 2008) 
    533 F.3d 321
    , 332.) More specifically,
    the ICCTA preempts state and local environmental regulation requiring private railroad
    companies to acquire permits or preclearance as a condition to operating the railroad, as
    well as remedies that would prohibit the conduct of railroad business pending compliance
    with environmental requirements imposed by state or local agencies pursuant to CEQA.
    (Eel River, supra, 3 Cal.5th at p. 717.)
    4.     ICCTA Preemption and CEQA Review
    Here, we are concerned with how the foregoing principles governing federal
    preemption under the ICCTA apply to the requirements of CEQA. In Eel River, our
    Supreme Court tangentially addressed preemption of CEQA’s information provisions
    (which we regard as distinct from CEQA provisions addressing the adoption of
    mitigation measures or feasible alternatives) by stating:
    “The [Surface Transportation Board] has recognized, too, that a state law
    simply requiring, for example, the development of information concerning
    a railroad project would not necessarily be preempted. In Boston & Maine,
    for example, the [Surface Transportation Board] stated, ‘While a locality
    cannot require permits prior to construction, . . . a railroad can be required
    to notify the local government “when it is undertaking an activity for which
    another entity would require a permit” and to furnish its site plan to the
    local government’ (Boston & Maine [Corp. and Town of Ayer, MA, Petition
    (STB, Apr. 30, 2001, No. FD 33971)], 
    2001 WL 458685
    , p. * 5), adding
    that ‘[l]ike any citizen or business, railroads have some responsibility to
    work with communities to seek ways to address local concerns in a way
    that makes sense and protects the public health and safety’ with pragmatic
    solutions. (Id., p. * 7.) ‘Examples of solutions that appear . . . reasonable
    58.
    include conditions requiring railroads to (1) share their plans with the
    community, when they are undertaking an activity for which another entity
    would require a permit, (2) use state or local best management practices
    when they construct railroad facilities; (3) implement appropriate
    precautionary measures . . . ; (4) provide representatives to meet
    periodically with citizen groups or local government entities to seek
    mutually acceptable ways to address local concerns; and (5) submit
    environmental monitoring or testing information to local government
    entities for an appropriate period of time after operations begin.’ (Ibid., fns.
    omitted.)” (Eel River, supra, 3 Cal.5th at p. 722.)
    We interpret our Supreme Court’s statement that the development of information
    concerning such a railroad project20 would not necessarily be preempted to mean the
    development of information pursuant to CEQA is not preempted categorically, but might
    be preempted on an as applied basis. Extending this interpretation to a refinery project
    serviced by a rail carrier, we conclude the development of information pursuant to CEQA
    is not preempted categorically, but is subject to scrutiny under the rules for as-applied
    preemption.
    C.     Analysis
    Our analysis of the preemption questions presented begins by describing what the
    EIR said about federal preemption and then separately addresses the federal preemption
    of (1) CEQA’s informational requirements and (2) CEQA’s requirements relating to the
    adoption of mitigation measures.
    1.     Contents of the EIR
    Chapter 3 of the EIR described the project. Section 3.4.1 of the EIR addressed the
    proposed improvements to on-site rail facilities, the off-site train movements, and the
    transport of Bakken crude oil. The EIR reported that the operation of unit trains to and
    20      The project in Eel River involved the resumption of freight service on a state-
    owned rail line between Lombard and Willits by Northwestern Pacific Railroad
    Company, a private entity that entered an agreement and lease with the state designating
    it as the state’s franchisee. (Eel River, supra, 3 Cal.5th at pp. 691, 692, 694.)
    59.
    from the project site would be performed by BNSF Railway on its property using BNSF
    trains operated by BNSF employees. The EIR addressed preemption by stating:
    “The movements of those trains within Kern County, to and from the
    project site, while described in this section of the EIR, may be preempted
    from local and state environmental regulations by federal law under the
    [ICCTA]. [¶] While the potential impacts of those train movements along
    the BNSF mainline within Kern County are described in appropriate
    chapters of this EIR, the County as CEQA Lead Agency, and other state
    and local responsible agencies could be preempted from imposing
    mitigation measures, conditions or regulations to regulate or mitigate
    potential impacts of BNSF train movements on the mainline.” (Italics
    added.)
    The EIR then stated the activities involving the expanded rail facilities at the
    project site were not protected by federal preemption because those activities would not
    occur on BNSF property and would not be performed by BNSF employees. Therefore,
    the EIR concluded County and the responsible agencies had the authority to impose
    mitigation measures or conditions to reduce potential impacts within the project site.
    Section 4.1 of the EIR, Air Quality, included a more definitive statement about
    preemption as it related to off-site rail activity. That statement did not use the indecisive
    phrases “may be” and “could be” preempted. Instead, it asserted “the ICCTA specifically
    preempts CEQA review of unit train movements to and from the proposed … project.”
    This interpretation of the ICCTA was used to justify the EIR’s omission of an analysis of
    criteria pollutant emissions from the unit train locomotives operating off-site on the main
    lines. However, the EIR stated unit train locomotive emissions were presented in one of
    the attachments to the Air Quality/Global Climate Change Analysis prepared by
    Ashworth Leininger Group. The document and its attachments were designated
    Appendix B of the EIR.
    2.     CEQA Disclosure and Analysis
    First, we consider whether the EIR was correct in its legal conclusion that the
    ICCTA preempts CEQA review (i.e., disclosure and analysis) of the unit train
    60.
    movements to and from the project site. In our view, this legal conclusion about
    preemption was wrong. The two types of preemption, categorical and as-applied, do not
    preclude CEQA review of the project’s reasonably foreseeable indirect physical changes
    to the environment caused by the movement of unit trains to and from the project site.
    Previously, we interpreted Eel River to mean CEQA’s informational requirements
    were not categorically preempted. (See pt. V.B.4, ante.) As an alternative to that broad
    legal conclusion, we will consider whether categorical preemption applies to the specific
    circumstances of this case.
    The first kind of categorical preemption involves state permitting and preclearance
    regulations that would have the effect of delaying or preventing railroad operations. (Eel
    River, supra, 3 Cal.5th at pp. 703, 716.) We conclude the completion of a CEQA review
    that includes an analysis of the significance of indirect environmental effects arising from
    the train activity on the main line would impose no permitting or preclearance by a state
    or local agency upon the delivery of crude oil to the project site by a rail carrier. Thus,
    CEQA review could not be used to deny a rail carrier the ability to conduct operations
    and transport crude oil to the refinery. Therefore, the first kind of categorical preemption
    that invalidates permitting and preclearance does not apply in this case. As a result, that
    kind of categorical preemption does not justify the EIR’s omission of a description and
    analysis of environmental effects associated with off-site rail activity such as the
    emission of criteria pollutants by train locomotives.
    The second kind of categorical preemption invalidates state and local regulation of
    matters directly regulated by the Surface Transportation Board, such as the operation of
    rail lines or railroad rates. (Eel River, supra, 3 Cal.5th at p. 717.) Here, a CEQA
    environmental review of Alon USA’s proposed project and its indirect environmental
    effects would not control or influence matters directly regulated under federal law. As a
    result, conducting a CEQA review would not create the possibility of a rail carrier being
    subject to state or locally imposed requirements that address a matter within the Surface
    61.
    Transportation Board’s exclusive jurisdiction. Therefore, we conclude the second kind of
    categorical preemption does not preclude CEQA review of the environmental effects of
    off-site rail activities.
    The as-applied type of preemption is “based on the degree of interference the
    particular state action has on railroad operations” and requires a factual assessment of
    whether the effect of the state action would be to prevent or unreasonably interfere with
    railroad operations. (Eel River, supra, 3 Cal.5th at p. 717.) Here, the preparation and
    publication of an EIR that discloses and analyzes the environmental impacts of off-site
    rail activities would not prevent, burden or interfere with BNSF Railway’s operation.
    The words set down in an EIR would have no actual effect on the actions taken by a rail
    carrier or how or when those actions were taken. Therefore, we conclude as-applied
    preemption does not preclude CEQA review of the reasonably foreseeable environmental
    effects that may be caused by the off-site rail activities associated with the project.
    3.      CEQA Mitigation Measures
    Plaintiffs acknowledge the “ICCTA may preempt the County’s ability to impose
    certain mitigation measures on mainline rail operations.” Taking a more emphatic view,
    County asserts it “is preempted by the [ICCTA] from imposing mitigation measures to
    reduce potential impacts of train movements on the mainline.” We agree with the
    parties’ assertions to the extent that they overlap—that is, we conclude some mitigation
    measures that address the environmental impacts of mainline rail operations may be
    preempted by federal law.
    Under CEQA, a public agency is required to mitigate or avoid significant
    environmental effects of a project if it is feasible to do so. (§ 21002.1, subd. (b).)
    Mitigation measures adopted by the agency must be “fully enforceable.” (§ 21081.6,
    subd. (b).) A mitigation measure that is preempted by federal law is not “fully
    enforceable” and, in addition, it is not “feasible” because the concept of feasibility takes
    62.
    account of legal factors when assessing whether a particular mitigation measure is
    “capable of being accomplished in a successful manner.” (Guidelines, § 15364
    [definition of feasible].) Federal preemption is a legal factor affecting feasibility.
    The procedural posture of this case does not allow us to provide a definitive
    statement about which mitigation measures will or will not be preempted. For example,
    plaintiffs contend preemption would not apply to a voluntary emission reduction
    agreement requiring Alon USA to pay an emission reduction fee to Air District.
    Plaintiffs argue the ICCTA did not prevent the use of such an agreement to mitigate on-
    site rail emissions and, therefore, the ICCTA would not preempt an agreement requiring
    Alon USA to mitigate the 240 tons of smog-causing pollution resulting each year from
    off-site rail operations. We, however, cannot conclude that requiring a project proponent
    who is not a rail carrier to pay a fee would never amount to an unreasonable burden on
    interstate commerce. Instead, County must decide in the first instance whether a
    particular mitigation measure is or is not feasible, a decision that includes determining
    whether the ICCTA preempts the imposition of such a measure because the burden,
    imposed on a rail carrier’s customer, indirectly imposes an unreasonable burden on or
    interference with rail transportation. As stated in Eel River, whether an action
    unreasonably interferes with railroad transportation requires a factual assessment. (Eel
    River, supra, 3 Cal.5th at p. 717.) The tests for the different kinds of preemption are
    discussed in parts V.B.2. and V.B.3., ante. Those tests should be used by County on
    remand when it determines whether a particular mitigation measure is preempted by the
    ICCTA.
    4.     Conclusion
    The EIR incorrectly stated “the ICCTA specifically preempts CEQA review of
    unit train movements to and from the proposed … Project.” This error prejudicially
    affected the contents of the EIR and its adequacy as an informational document. In
    63.
    particular, the EIR did not disclose and analyze the significance of the criteria air
    pollutants emitted by the off-site rail activities associated with the project. If any impacts
    are found to be significant, then the EIR must address the feasibility of mitigating any
    significant impacts. (§ 21100, subd. (b)(3).) “An EIR that incorrectly disclaims the
    power and duty to mitigate identified environmental effects based on erroneous legal
    assumptions is not sufficient as an informative document.” (City of Marina v. Board of
    Trustees of California State University (2006) 
    39 Cal.4th 341
    , 356.)
    In addition, the omission from CEQA review of the reasonably foreseeable
    physical changes to the environment, caused by emission of air pollutants associated with
    the movement of unit trains to and from the project site, rendered statements in the EIR
    about the project’s environmental impact incomplete and thus inadequate. For example,
    the EIR addressed project’s criteria pollutant emissions (Table 4.1-13) without including
    the emissions resulting from increased off-site rail traffic. Thus, the forecast that the
    project will reduce annual emissions of reactive organic gases (ROG), nitrogen oxides
    (NOx), carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, and particulate matter does not account for all
    of the project’s direct and indirect air quality impacts. As a result, the information
    provided in the EIR is misleading.
    The EIR’s erroneous legal conclusions regarding federal preemption must be
    corrected. Also, County must correct the EIR’s failure to disclose and analyze the
    reasonably foreseeable environmental effects resulting from the off-site rail activities
    associated with the project.
    VI.    FORMULATING APPELLATE RELIEF*
    A.     Requests of the Parties
    Plaintiffs’ opening brief asked this court to reverse the judgment and direct the
    issuance of a writ of mandate requiring “County to set aside the EIR and enjoin any
    *      See footnote, ante, page 1.
    64.
    Project activity unless and until the EIR is revised to comply with CEQA.” In response,
    County assumed it would prevail on all the issues raised and, as a result, simply requested
    us to affirm the trial court’s decision to deny the petition for writ of mandate. Plaintiffs’
    reply brief slightly modified their request, asking us to “reverse the superior court’s
    judgment and remand this case with directions to issue a peremptory writ of mandate
    ordering the County to set aside its certification of the EIR and its approval of the Project
    pending full compliance with CEQA.” Plaintiffs did not repeat the request for project
    activity to be enjoined.
    B.     Statutory Provisions
    Section 21168.9 requires courts to issue a writ of mandate to remedy a failure to
    comply with CEQA. (POET, LLC v. State Air Resources Bd. (2013) 
    218 Cal.App.4th 681
    , 756-757 (POET I).) The writ of mandate must include one or more of the types of
    relief identified in subparagraphs (1) through (3) of subdivision (a) of section 21168.9.
    Specifically, the court may direct the lead agency (1) to void, in whole or in part, a
    determination, finding or decision, (2) to “‘suspend any or all specific project activity or
    activities’” if certain statutory conditions are met, or (3) to take specific action necessary
    to bring the determination, finding or decision tainted by the CEQA violation into
    compliance with CEQA. (POET I, supra, at p. 757.)
    C.     Relief Typically Granted
    “In most cases, when a court finds an agency has violated CEQA in approving a
    project, it issues a writ of mandate requiring the agency to set aside its CEQA
    determination, to set aside the project approvals, and to take specific corrective action
    before it considers reapproving the project.” (2 Kostka & Zischke, Practice Under the
    Cal. Environmental Quality Act (Cont.Ed.Bar 2d ed. 2017) § 23.124, p. 23–140 (rev.
    3/15).) For example, in Ukiah Citizens for Safety First v. City of Ukiah (2016) 
    248 Cal.App.4th 256
    , the First District determined an EIR’s analysis of the project’s energy
    65.
    impacts was inadequate. The First District’s disposition instructed the trial court “to
    grant [the] petition for a writ of mandate directing the city to set aside its certification of
    the final EIR and approval of the project and to bring the energy section of the EIR into
    compliance with CEQA before redetermining whether to approve the project.” (Id. at p.
    267; cf. Chawanakee Unified School Dist. v. County of Madera (2011) 
    196 Cal.App.4th 1016
    , 1029; Nelson v. County of Kern (2010) 
    190 Cal.App.4th 252
    , 285; San Joaquin
    Raptor Rescue Center v. County of Merced (2007) 
    149 Cal.App.4th 645
    , 673.)
    County has not argued it would be inappropriate to grant the appellate relief
    typically implemented when an EIR fails to comply with CEQA. Accordingly, pursuant
    to section 21168.9, subdivision (a)(1), we will direct the trial court to issue a writ of
    mandate instructing County to set aside (i.e., vacate) its certification of the final EIR and
    its approval of the project. Also, in the event that Alon USA seeks reapproval of the
    project, County shall not consider such a reapproval until the EIR has been brought into
    compliance with CEQA. (§ 21168.9, subd. (a)(3).)
    D.     Enjoining Project Activity
    Plaintiffs’ opening brief requested that we enjoin any project activity until the EIR
    is revised to comply with CEQA. This request was not reiterated in plaintiffs’ reply
    brief. The initial request to enjoin project activity appears to be a request that this court
    exercise the discretionary authority set forth in subdivision (a)(2) of section 21168.9 to
    “mandate that the public agency and any real parties in interest suspend any or all
    specific project activity … until the public agency has taken any actions that may be
    necessary to bring [the project approval] into compliance with [CEQA].”
    We will not exercise this discretionary authority because plaintiffs have not
    addressed and established the two statutory conditions that must be satisfied before any
    project activity is suspended. Under the statute, suspension is authorized only if (1) there
    has been a finding “that a specific project activity or activities will prejudice the
    66.
    consideration or implementation of particular mitigation measures or alternatives to the
    project” (§ 21168.9, subd. (a)(2)) and (2) the suspension is limited to project activity
    “that could result in an adverse change or alteration to the physical environment.” (Ibid.)
    If plaintiffs intend to request the suspension of project activity on remand, the trial court
    has the authority to consider and decide the appropriateness of that type of relief in the
    first instance, after the parties have had an opportunity to present argument and evidence.
    DISPOSITION
    The judgment is reversed and the matter remanded for further proceedings. The
    superior court is directed (1) to vacate the order denying the petition for writ of mandate
    and (2) to enter a new order granting the petition for writ of mandate. The superior court
    shall issue a peremptory writ of mandate compelling County (1) to set aside its
    certification of the final EIR and its approval of the project and (2) to bring the EIR into
    compliance with CEQA before taking any action relying upon the EIR, such as adopting
    another resolution approving the project.
    Plaintiffs shall recover their costs on appeal.
    _____________________
    FRANSON, J.
    WE CONCUR:
    _____________________
    GOMES, Acting P.J.
    _____________________
    PEÑA, J.
    67.