Usinor Industeel, S.A. v. United States , 26 Ct. Int'l Trade 467 ( 2002 )


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  •                                   Slip Op. 02-39
    UNITED STATES COURT OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE
    :
    USINOR INDUSTEEL, S.A., DUFERCO             :
    CLABECQ, S.A., AG der DILLINGER HÜTTENWERKE,:
    SALZGITTER AG STAHL und TECHNOLOGIE, and    :
    THYSSEN KRUPP STAHL AG,                     :
    :
    Plaintiffs,                     :
    :                   Consolidated Court
    v.                              :                   No. 01-00006
    :
    THE UNITED STATES,                          :                   Public Version
    :
    Defendant,                      :
    :
    and                             :
    :
    BETHLEHEM STEEL CORPORATION and             :
    U.S. STEEL GROUP, A UNIT OF USX CORP.,      :
    :
    Defendant-Intervenors.          :
    :
    [ITC sunset review determination remanded.]
    Dated: April 29, 2002
    Barnes, Richardson, & Colburn (Gunter von Conrad and Stephen W. Brophy) for plaintiff
    Usinor Industeel, SA.
    White and Case LLP (Walter J. Spak, Lyle B. Vander Schaaf, Joseph H. Heckendorn, and
    Caleb W. Sullivan) for plaintiff Duferco Clabecq, S.A.
    DeKieffer and Horgan (J. Kevin Horgan and Marc E. Montalbine) for plaintiffs AG der
    Dillinger Hüttenwerke, Salzgitter AG Stahl und Technologie and Thyssen Krupp Stahl AG.
    Lyn M. Schlitt, General Counsel, James M. Lyons, Deputy General Counsel, United
    States International Trade Commission (Rhonda M. Hughes), for defendants.
    CONSOL. COURT NO . 01-00006                                                                PAGE 2
    Dewey Ballantine LLP (Alan Wm. Wolff, Kevin M. Dempsey, and Rory F. Quirk) and
    Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom LLP (Robert E. Lighthizer, John J. Mangan, and James
    C. Hecht) for defendant-intervenors Bethlehem Steel Corporation, U.S. Steel Group, a unit of
    USX Corporation.
    OPINION
    RESTANI, Judge: This consolidated matter is before the court on a motion for
    judgment based upon the agency record pursuant to USCIT Rule 56.2. The motion has been
    brought by Usinor Industeel, S.A., Duferco Clabecq, S.A., AG der Dilllinger Hüttenwerke,
    Salzgitter AG Stahl und Technologie and Thyssen Krupp Stahl AG (collectively “Plaintiffs”),
    respondents in the underlying antidumping investigation. Plaintiffs challenge certain aspects of
    the final determination of the U.S. International Trade Commission (“Commission” or “ITC”) in
    its five-year sunset review of antidumping and countervailing orders in Certain Carbon Steel
    Products From Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Finland, France, Germany, Japan, Korea,
    Mexico, Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, and United Kingdom, 
    65 Fed. Reg. 75,301
     (Int’l Trade Comm’n 2000) (“Final Determination”). Plaintiffs primarily challenge
    the Commission’s decision to cumulate subject imports from Belgium and Germany with those
    from other countries on the ground that conditions of competition in European Community
    (“E.C.”) changed substantially between the initial investigation and this sunset review. Plaintiffs
    also challenge the Commission’s affirmative competition overlap determination, arguing that the
    Commission applied an improper statutory standard and, generally, that the Commission’s
    finding of likely material injury was not supported by substantial evidence.
    CONSOL. COURT NO . 01-00006                                                                   PAGE 3
    JURISDICTION
    This action commenced under section 516A(a)(2)(A)(i)(I) and (B)(iii) of the Tariff Act of
    1930, as amended (the “Act”). 19 U.S.C. §§ 1516a(a)(2)(A)(i)(I) and (B)(iii) (1999). The court
    has jurisdiction pursuant to 
    28 U.S.C. § 1581
    (c) (1994).
    BACKGROUND
    On September 1, 1999, the Commission instituted five-year sunset reviews, pursuant to
    section 751 of the Act, to determine whether revocation of antidumping and countervailing duty
    orders on certain carbon steel products1 from various countries would likely lead to continuation
    or recurrence of material injury to the domestic industry. See Certain Carbon Steel Products
    From Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Finland, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico,
    Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, and United Kingdom, 
    64 Fed. Reg. 47,862
     (Int’l Trade Comm’n 1999) (institution of five year reviews). On December 21, 1999, the
    Commission decided to conduct full five-year reviews for all orders. See Certain Carbon Steel
    Products from Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Finland, France, Germany, Japan, Korea,
    Mexico, Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, and United Kingdom, 
    64 Fed. Reg. 71,494
     (Int’l Trade Comm’n 1999) (notice of Commission determination to conduct full
    five-year reviews).
    On December 1, 2000, the Commission published notice of its final affirmative
    determination. Final Determination, 
    65 Fed. Reg. 75,301
    . The Commission unanimously found
    1
    The reviews covered three separate products: (1) cut-to-length carbon steel plate; (2)
    cold-rolled carbon steel flat products; and (3) corrosion-resistant carbon steel plate. Plaintiffs’
    challenge is limited to cut-to-length carbon steel plate.
    CONSOL. COURT NO . 01-00006                                                                     PAGE 4
    that revocation of the antidumping and countervailing duty orders on cut-to-length carbon steel
    plate (“CTL plate”) from Belgium, Brazil, Finland, Germany, Mexico, Poland, Romania, Spain,
    and Sweden would likely lead to a continuation or recurrence of material injury to the domestic
    industry. Id.2 Plaintiffs’ challenge here is directed at retention of the antidumping orders.
    The determinations at issue reviewed a 1979 antidumping duty order on carbon steel plate
    from Taiwan3 and a 1993 antidumping duty order on CTL plate from various countries including
    Belgium and Germany.4 
    Id.
     Plaintiffs Usinor Industeel, SA (“Usinor”) and Duferco Clabecq,
    S.A. (“Duferco”) are Belgian producers and exporters of CTL plate. Plaintiffs AG der Dilllinger
    Hüttenwerke, Salzgitter AG Stahl und Technologie and Thyssen Krupp Stahl AG (collectively,
    the “German Producers”) are German producers and exporters of CTL plate. Usinor, Duferco,
    and the German Producers (collectively “Plaintiffs”) participated in the review proceedings and
    contest the Final Determination here. The U.S. producers participating in the review were
    Bethlehem Steel Corp. (“Bethlehem”), U.S. Steel Group, a Unit of USX Corp. (“U.S. Steel”),
    2
    The Commission voted 6-0 that revocation of orders on CTL plate from Canada would
    not likely lead to continuation or recurrence of material injury to the domestic industry. 
    Id.
     By a
    vote of 4-2, the Commission determined that revocation of the orders CTL plate from the United
    Kingdom would likely lead to continuation or recurrence of material injury. By a vote of 5-1, the
    Commission determined that revocation of the orders on CTL plate from Taiwan would likely
    lead to a continuation or recurrence of material injury.
    3
    On May 12, 1979 the Commission determined that imports of plate from Taiwan
    injured or were likely to injure a regional industry in the United States. See Carbon Steel Plate
    from Taiwan, USITC Pub. 970, AA1921-197 (May 1979).
    4
    The 1993 period of review (“POR”) was 1990 to 1992. See Certain Flat-Rolled Carbon
    Steel Products from Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Finland, France,
    Germany, Italy, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Poland,
    Romania, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom, USITC Pub. 2664, INV. Nos. 701-TA-319
    to 332, 334, 336 to 342, 344, and 347 to 353 (final); and 731-TA-573 to 579, 581-592, 594 to
    597, 599 to 609, and 612 to 619 (final) (Aug. 1993) (hereinafter “1993 ITC Determination”).
    CONSOL. COURT NO . 01-00006                                                                 PAGE 5
    Gulf States Steel, Inc., U.S. Denro Steel, Inc., and IPSCO Steel, Inc. (collectively the “Domestic
    Producers”). Bethlehem and U.S. Steel are Defendant-Intervenors in the present action.
    Pursuant to 19 U.S.C. § 1675a(a)(7), the Commission elected to cumulate likely volume
    and price effects from all countries except Canada.5 Final Determination at 29. In support of
    cumulation, the Commission found that: (1) subject imports from all countries except Canada
    were likely to have a discernible adverse impact on the domestic industry if orders were revoked;
    (2) there would be reasonable overlap of competition between subject imports from all countries
    and the domestic like product if orders were revoked; and (3) except for Canada, no significant
    differences in the conditions of competition existed between the remaining countries. Id. at 29-
    37.
    Upon cumulation, the Commission determined that material injury was likely if orders
    were revoked. In support, the Commission found that volume of cumulated subject imports
    would likely be significant if orders were revoked.6 Id. at 40-42. The Commission found that
    5
    With respect to Canada, only one of the three major Canadian producers to which the
    antidumping duty order applied, Stelco, remained subject to the order. IPSCO was excluded
    pursuant to a remand determination in 1995 that lowered its margin to de minimis and
    Commerce revoked the order on Algoma in 1999. Staff Report at PLATE-IV-3. The
    Commission determined that likely future levels of subject imports from Canada would not be
    significant, that the probable volumes would likely be too small to affect domestic prices
    significantly and, in the absence of significant volume or price effects, that the likely impact of
    subject imports from Canada on the domestic plate industry, in the event of revocation, would
    not be significant. Accordingly, the Commission found that subject imports from Canada would
    not lead to continuation or recurrence of material injury within a reasonably foreseeable time if
    the order were revoked. Final Determination at 48-49.
    6
    The Commission’s volume analysis was ostensibly based on significant foreign
    production capacity and excess capacity to produce both subject and non-subject plate products,
    foreign plate inventories, significant exports by most producers of subject plate (indicating that
    exporting is an important part of these producers’ businesses), and barriers to exporting to third
    countries. Id. at 40-42. In addition, the Commission found that the incentive for foreign
    CONSOL. COURT NO . 01-00006                                                                 PAGE 6
    increased volume of CTL plate would undersell domestic like products and have significant price
    suppressing and depressing effects within a reasonably foreseeable time. Id. at 43. Finding that
    revocation of orders would likely lead to increases in volume with significant adverse price
    effects, the Commission determined that, because of the vulnerability of the domestic industry,
    the cumulated effects would likely have a significant adverse impact on the domestic industry
    and would likely cause the domestic industry to lose market share. Id. at 47.
    The Commission concluded that if orders were revoked, subject imports from Belgium,
    Brazil, Finland, Germany, Mexico, Poland, Romania, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, and the United
    Kingdom would be likely to enter the U.S. market in sufficient quantities and at prices below
    those of the domestic like product so as to have a significant adverse impact on the domestic
    industry within a reasonably foreseeable time. Id. at 46-48. In light of these conclusions, the
    Commission found that revocation of the orders would likely lead to a continuation or recurrence
    of material injury to the domestic industry within a reasonably foreseeable time. Id. at 49-50.
    Plaintiffs challenge the Commission’s decision to cumulate Belgian and German imports with
    those of the remaining countries, as well as the Commission’s affirmative determination upon
    cumulation.
    producers to increase sales to maximize the use of available capacity, the role of increasingly
    consolidated service centers in seeking out sources of low-cost supplies, as well as the price-
    sensitive nature of the domestic plate market and the weakened condition of the domestic
    industry indicated that the volume of subject imports would likely be significant. Id.
    CONSOL. COURT NO . 01-00006                                                               PAGE 7
    STANDARD OF REVIEW
    The Commission’s determinations in five-year sunset reviews will be upheld unless the
    court determines that they are “unsupported by substantial evidence on the record, or otherwise
    not in accordance with law.” 19 U.S.C. § 1516a(B)(1)(b)(1).
    DISCUSSION
    I. Cumulation
    Plaintiffs challenge the Commission’s decision to cumulate imports from Belgium7 and
    Germany with imports from other countries. Cumulation is discretionary in sunset reviews. See
    19 U.S.C. § 1675a(a)(7); see also Eveready Battery Co. v. United States, 
    77 F. Supp. 2d 1327
    ,
    1331 (Ct. Int’l Trade 1999); Statement of Administrative Action, (“SAA”) accompanying
    H.R.Rep. No. 103-826(I), at 887, reprinted in 1994 U.S.C.C.A.N. 4040, 4212. Section
    1675a(a)(7) provides that:
    [T]he Commission may cumulatively assess the volume and effect of imports of the
    subject merchandise from all countries with respect to [sunset reviews that] were initiated
    on the same day, if such imports would be likely to compete with each other and with
    domestic like products in the United States market.
    
    Id.
     (emphasis added). The statute prohibits cumulation if the Commission determines that
    subject imports are likely to have “no discernible adverse impact” on the domestic industry. 
    Id.
    In order to satisfy this provision, the Commission must also determine that “a reasonable overlap
    of competition” exists between imports from different countries. Wieland Werke, AG v. United
    States, 
    13 CIT 561
    , 563, 
    718 F. Supp. 50
    , 52 (1989). In addition to these statutory requirements,
    7
    There were two CTL plate producers in Belgium during the POR, Duferco and
    Fabrique de Fer de Charleroi, S.A. (now Usinor). Staff Report at PLATE-IV-1.
    CONSOL. COURT NO . 01-00006                                                                   PAGE 8
    the Commission analyzes the “overall similarities in the conditions of competition that would
    prevail if the finding and orders are revoked.” Certain Steel Wire Rope from Japan, Korea, and
    Mexico, USITC Pub. 3259, INV. Nos. 731-TA-547, at 11 (Dec. 1999) (five-year review).
    Plaintiffs challenge the Commission’s affirmative determinations with respect to each.
    A. Discernible Impact
    The Commission may not cumulatively assess the volume and effects of subject imports
    if it determines that such imports are “likely to have no discernible adverse impact on the
    domestic industry.” 19 U.S.C. § 1675a(a)(7). Citing the absence of any guidance in the statute
    or SAA, the Commission states that it “generally considers the likely volume of the subject
    imports and the likely impact of those imports on the domestic industry within a reasonably
    foreseeable time.” Final Determination at 22. In terms of product mix, the Commission found
    “a reasonable overlap” between the types of plate products manufactured in each subject country
    and those produced in the United States and, therefore, imports are likely to be substitutable for
    and competitive with domestic plate. Id. at 31 (citing Domestic Producer Questionnaire
    Responses, C.R. Doc. 236, Tables CTL-SUPP-13 through 24). Focusing primarily on foreign
    excess capacity8 and the ability of the foreign producers to produce all types of plate products, the
    Commission found that volume of subject imports was likely to increase significantly if orders
    were revoked. Relying heavily upon the weakened condition of the domestic industry, the
    Commission determined that this increased volume would have a discernible adverse impact on
    8
    The Commission calculated that capacity in each country was equivalent to over five
    percent of U.S. consumption, except with regard to Canada. Final Determination at 30 n.98
    (citing Staff Report, Tables PLATE-IV-3 through 13 (summarizing capacity and capacity
    utilization for subject countries)). The Commission found the size of the industry in each
    country significant when compared to U.S. consumption. Final Determination at 30.
    CONSOL. COURT NO . 01-00006                                                                   PAGE 9
    the domestic industry. Plaintiff Usinor challenges this determination arguing that: (1) the
    Commission’s discernible impact methodology lacks a consistent analytical framework; and (2)
    Belgium was entitled to a country-specific analysis.
    1. Differing Analytical Frameworks
    In lieu of explaining individual Commissioner’s discernible adverse impact
    methodologies, the Final Determination referred to prior sunset reviews for a discussion of the
    various analytical frameworks used by Chairman Koplan and Commissioners Hillman, Miller
    and Bragg in applying the “no discernible adverse impact” provision.9 Final Determination at 22,
    nn.73-74. Usinor claims that Chairman Koplan and Commissioner Bragg improperly analyzed
    the sunset review cumulation provision as a negligibility provision. Usinor misstates Chairman
    Koplan’s position. In the decisions cited, the commissioners read the “no discernible adverse
    impact” provision “to be largely a negligibility provision without the use of a strict numerical test
    of the sort now required by the statute in original antidumping and countervailing duty
    investigations.” Malleable Cast Iron Pipe Fittings, Sep. Views of Comm’rs Miller & Hillman at
    12, Sep. Views of Comm’r Koplan at 25-26 n.3. The Commissioners interpreted the provision to
    require a focus on the total volume of imports that would likely occur in the event of revocation
    of the orders rather than the change in volumes of such imports, Malleable Cast Iron Pipe
    Fittings, Sep. Views of Comm’rs Miller & Hillman at 12; Iron Metal Castings, Views of Comm’r
    9
    Chairman Koplan and Commissioner Miller referred to their discussion of cumulation in
    their separate views in Malleable Cast Iron Pipe Fittings from Brazil, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and
    Thailand, USITC Pub. 3274, Inv. Nos. 731-TA-278-280 (Review), 731-TA-347-348 (Review)
    (Feb. 2000). Chairman Koplan also cited his individual discussion of cumulation in Iron Metal
    Castings from India; Heavy Iron Construction Castings from Brazil; and Iron Construction
    Castings from Brazil, Canada and China, USITC Pub. 3247, Inv. Nos. 303-TA-13 (Review);
    701-TA-249 (Review); and 731-TA-262, 263 & 265 (Review) (Oct. 1999).
    CONSOL. COURT NO . 01-00006                                                                 PAGE 10
    Koplan at 28, and an evaluation of the likely conditions of competition as well. Malleable Cast
    Iron Pipe Fittings, Sep. Views of Comm’rs Miller & Hillman at 12-13; Iron Metal Castings,
    Views of Comm’r Koplan at 28. That interpretation is consistent with the methodology
    employed here and is not contrary to the discretionary cumulation standard.
    Commissioner Bragg referred to her discussion of cumulation in Potassium Permanganate
    from China and Spain,USITC Pub. 3245, Inv. Nos. 731-TA-125 to 126 (Review) (Oct. 1999)
    and Brass Sheet and Strip from Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Korea, the
    Netherlands, and Sweden, USITC Pub. 3290, Inv. Nos. 701-TA-269 & 270 (Review), 731-TA-
    311-317 & 379-380 (Review) (Apr. 2000). Commissioner Bragg first determines: (1) whether
    the reviews were initiated on the same day, and (2) whether there is a likely reasonable overlap in
    competition if orders are revoked. If so, Commissioner Bragg then examines whether such
    imports are likely to have no discernible adverse impact on the domestic industry. Potassium
    Permanganate, Sep. Views of Comm’r Bragg at 27; Brass Sheet and Strip, Sep. Views of
    Comm’r Bragg at 27.
    Usinor argues that under19 U.S.C. § 1675a(a)(7), the Commission must make an
    affirmative determination that discernible adverse impact is likely before analyzing competition
    overlap. Usinor’s objection fails here for two reasons. First, Commissioner Bragg ultimately
    determined that subject imports from Belgium alone would likely have a discernible adverse
    impact if orders were revoked.10 Final Determination, Sep. Views of Comm’r Bragg at 27.
    10
    Consistent with the majority methodology, Commissioner Bragg based her discernible
    adverse impact determination on excess capacity noting that Belgium possessed approximately [
    ] tons of excess capacity to produce subject plate and [         ] tons of excess capacity to
    produce all plate. Belgian producers’ inventories of subject merchandise were [           ] tons at
    the end of the interim period, and that total unused capacity plus end-of-period inventories were
    CONSOL. COURT NO . 01-00006                                                                  PAGE 11
    Second, a majority of the Commission employed other uncontested analyses. Therefore, the
    court need not remand even if Commissioner Bragg’s analysis were faulty. See Ad Hoc Comm.
    of Domestic Uranium Producers v. United States, 
    162 F. Supp. 2d 649
    , 654 (Ct. Int’l Trade
    2001) (not reaching the issue of significance of different production capacities and inventories
    where other factors cited by the Commission were deemed adequate). Differing methodologies
    by individual commissioners is not, by itself, sufficient to require remand. See, e.g., Neenah
    Foundry Co. v. United States, 
    155 F. Supp. 2d 766
     (Ct. Int’l Trade 2001) (upholding distinct
    approaches on discernible adverse impact); Cemex, S.A. v. United States, 
    16 CIT 251
    , 252, 
    790 F. Supp. 290
    , 292 (1992) (ITC’s determination affirmed when two majority commissioners
    utilized different analyses).
    2. Country-Specific Analysis
    Usinor next argues that the Commission did not analyze each country individually in
    making its findings, and specifically failed to discuss its analysis with respect to Belgium. In
    support of its discernible impact determination, the Commission specifically referred to that
    portion of the Staff Report analyzing the Belgian CTL plate industry. Final Determination at 30
    n.101. The Staff Report analyzes the facts specific to subject imports from Belgium. Staff
    Report at PLATE-IV-1 through 3. While citation to the staff report is not ideal, the court can
    deduce from the Commission’s reference that: (1) CTL plate accounts for a substantial portion
    of Belgian sales;11 (2) that Usinor itself reported that [
    equivalent to approximately [    ] percent of domestic production during 1999, and [            ]
    percent of apparent domestic consumption that year.
    11
    The Staff Report states that CTL plate accounted for between [               ] percent of
    the Belgian Mills’ total sales in the most recent fiscal year. Staff Report at PLATE-IV-1, 2.
    CONSOL. COURT NO . 01-00006                                                                 PAGE 12
    ]; and (3) that Belgium exports the majority of
    CTL plate produced.12 The Belgium specific analysis in the Staff Report is consistent with the
    Commission’s general finding in the Final Determination. Id. at 30 (noting size of industry,
    capacity to produce all types of plate products, and export orientation in support of general
    finding).
    B. Competition Overlap
    The Commission states that it generally considers four factors to determine whether
    competition overlap is likely: (1) the degree of fungibility between the imports from different
    countries and between imports and the domestic like product; (2) the presence of sales or offers
    to sell in the same geographical markets of imports from different countries and the domestic like
    product; (3) the existence of common or similar channels of distribution for imports from
    different countries and the domestic like product; and (4) whether the imports are simultaneously
    present in the market. Final Determination at 23, n.76; see also Wieland Werke, AG v. United
    States, 
    13 CIT 561
    , 563 (1989). These factors are neither exclusive nor determinative. See Goss
    Graphics Sys. v. United States, 
    33 F. Supp. 2d 1082
    , 1086 (Ct. Int’l Trade 1998). In finding that
    competition overlap is likely, the Commission made affirmative determinations as to each factor.
    Final Determination at 31-33. Duferco contests each finding, arguing that the Commission did
    not apply the proper statutory standard and that the determinations are not supported by
    substantial evidence.
    12
    The Staff Report notes that, in 1999, over [ ] percent of Duferco’s sales were to
    other European countries. Staff Report at PLATE-IV-2; Table PLATE-IV-3. Duferco and
    Usinor are the only producers of CTL plate in Belgium.
    CONSOL. COURT NO . 01-00006                                                                  PAGE 13
    1. “Likely”
    Plaintiff Duferco argues that the Commission failed to properly construe the phrase
    “likely” under 
    19 U.S.C. § 1675.13
     The Act does not expressly define the term likely.
    “[U]ndefined terms in a statute are deemed to have their ordinary meaning.” Koyo Seiko Co. v.
    United States, 
    36 F.3d 1565
    , 1571 n.9 (Fed. Cir. 1994). Webster’s Dictionary and Black’s Law
    Dictionary define “likely” as probable. See Webster’s Ninth New Collegiate Dictionary, at 692
    (1990); Black’s Law Dictionary (6th ed., 13th reprint) at 834 (1998). Under Chevron U.S.A., Inc.
    v. Natural Resources Defense Council, Inc., 
    467 U.S. 837
    , 842-43 (1984), the court must (1)
    determine whether the statute is ambiguous; and, if so (2) determine whether the agency’s
    construction of the statute is reasonable. The court determines that the statute is clear and,
    therefore, does not reach step two. “Likely” means “likely” – that is, probable. “Likely” is
    nowhere defined as merely “possible”.
    While the Final Determination does not provide a contrary construction, Duferco argues
    that the Commission implicitly interprets and applies the term “likely” to mean possible, not
    probable. Plaintiffs argue that by emphasizing excess capacity without explaining why producers
    from Belgium would shift exports to United States, the Commission has, without more, only
    determined that imports are possible.14 Counsel for Defendant confuses the matter by arguing
    that likely does not mean probable. Defendant cites the SAA which reads:
    The determination called for in these types of reviews is inherently predictive and
    speculative. There may be more than one likely outcome following revocation or
    13
    Plaintiff Usinor incorporates Duferco’s argument by reference.
    14
    Plaintiffs suggest that, among other things, recent changes in the European Community
    have made exporting to E.C. members more attractive than exporting to the U.S.
    CONSOL. COURT NO . 01-00006                                                                  PAGE 14
    termination. The possibility of other likely outcomes does not mean that a determination
    that revocation or termination is likely to lead to continuation or recurrence of dumping
    or countervailable subsidies, or injury, is erroneous, as long as the determination of
    likelihood of continuation or recurrence is reasonable in light of the facts of the case. In
    such situations, the order or suspended investigation will be continued.
    SAA at 883. (emphasis added). The SAA cannot change the words of the statute. In any case,
    the SAA is not necessarily inconsistent with the statute. It may simply mean that different
    conclusions as to likelihood by commissioners or the court do not destroy a substantially
    supported conclusion as to likelihood. In the Final Determination, the Commission does not
    expressly address its understanding of the term “likely” or explain its application under the
    statute. Given counsel’s argument and the Commission’s emphasis on potential future volume of
    subject imports and the weakened state of the domestic industry, the court cannot determine
    whether the Commission determined competition overlap to be likely. As discussed, a
    determination based on a mere possibility would be counter to the clear meaning of the statute.15
    The court, therefore, remands the matter to the Commission to determine whether injury is likely,
    not just possible, and for further explanation of its findings.
    2. Fungibility
    Duferco argues that Belgian products are not fungible because it exported only [
    ] during the period of review and because no other subject country shipped [                 ].
    When asked about the interchangeability of Belgian plate with plate from the other subject
    countries, no U.S. producer reported a lack of interchangeability; importers responded similarly.
    Staff Report at PLATE-II-5. Only one U.S. producer out of ten responding reported any
    15
    It is an overall determination of likely injury that is required. Certain subsidiary
    findings may be negative or neutral, but competition overlap is key.
    CONSOL. COURT NO . 01-00006                                                                    PAGE 15
    differences other than price between Belgian plate and other subject imports. 
    Id.
     at PLATE-II-
    23. The Commission noted that responding importers reported similarly. 
    Id.
     at PLATE-II-6.16
    The court finds that the Commission cited ample support on fungibility.
    3. Channels of Distribution
    The Commission found that both domestic producers and importers ship plate to end
    users, distributors and service centers/processors. Final Determination at 32; Staff Report at
    PLATE-II-1. Duferco contends that the ITC erred because it never explicitly stated that there is
    likely to be overlap in channels of distribution, and never addressed the overlap with respect to
    Belgium specifically. Duferco concedes, however, that it exports to end users.17 The other
    Belgian producer concedes that it shipped the majority of its plate to distributors, processors, and
    service centers.18 Thus, there appears to be no error in regard to channels of distribution.
    16
    In addition to [              ], Belgian producers manufacture standard, or commodity,
    plate. Presently, a significant percentage of the plate products that Duferco manufactures are
    standard products. Final Determination at 32 n.108. [          ] percent of Belgium’s plate
    production in 1999 was subject plate. See Supplementary Material IV, C.R. Doc. 235, at CTL-
    SUPP-1. Moreover, [                 ] represented only [     ] percent of Belgium’s total plate
    shipments in 1999. 
    Id.
     at CTL-SUPP-13.
    17
    Duferco’s affiliated company, which is the exclusive importer of its products in the
    United States, shipped [        ] short tons of plate in 1997, [     ] short tons in 1998 and [
    ] short tons in 1999. See Duferco Importer Questionnaire Response, C.R. Doc. 334, at 8.
    18
    Usinor stated that [   ] percent of its U.S. shipments went to
    distributors/processors/service centers in 1997, [ ] percent went to them in 1998 and [   ]
    percent went to them in 1999. See Fabrique de Fer’s Importer Questionnaire Response, C.R.
    Doc. 335, at 7.
    CONSOL. COURT NO . 01-00006                                                                PAGE 16
    4. Simultaneous Market Presence and Geographical Overlap
    Duferco argues that the Commission’s findings regarding simultaneous market presence
    and geographical overlap are pure speculation. The Commission stated that:
    [t]he record is mixed regarding current market presence and geographic overlap with the
    orders in place. However, in light of the importance of sales to steel service centers,
    which are dispersed throughout the United States and hold sizable plate inventories, we
    find it likely that subject imports from each subject country would be simultaneously
    present in the U.S. market as a whole and in the same geographical markets as other
    subject imports and the domestic like product.
    Final Determination at 32-33 (footnote omitted).
    With regard to market presence, the Commission cited to the Staff Report which states
    that subject plate imports from nine of the twelve countries at issue were present in the market
    throughout the period of review. For two of the remaining three countries, Spain and Sweden,
    subject plate imports were present in two out of the three years comprising the period of review.
    Subject imports from Taiwan were present in one year. Staff Report at PLATE-IV-1. With
    respect to geographic overlap, the Commission again cited the Staff Report and noted that both
    U.S. producers and importers reported nationwide sales. Final Determination at 33 n.112 (citing
    Staff Report at PLATE-II-1). According to the Staff Report, these producers and importers
    reported nationwide sales as a whole, although most individual firms reported a concentration of
    sales in particular regions. 
    Id.
     The court finds that the Commission provided sufficient support
    for its findings in this regard.
    CONSOL. COURT NO . 01-00006                                                                PAGE 17
    C. Conditions of Competition
    In addition to competition overlap analysis, the Commission reviews the conditions of
    competition.
    [The] cumulation analysis in a five-year [sunset] review encompasses more than an
    examination of whether there would likely be a reasonable overlap of competition of the
    products in the U.S. market. To aid us in our decision whether to exercise our discretion
    to cumulate, we have also examined the overall similarities in the conditions of
    competition that would prevail if the finding and orders are revoked.
    Certain Steel Wire Rope from Japan, Korea, and Mexico, USITC Pub. 3259 at 11. As discussed,
    sunset review analyses are inherently prospective, therefore, the Commission attempts to predict
    future conditions of competition. As with ordinary injury determinations, the statute does not
    enumerate what factors the Commission should consider in analyzing conditions of competition
    in sunset reviews.
    Plaintiffs attack the affirmative competition overlap determination and conditions of
    competition analysis by arguing that the Commission did not fully explain why it was “likely”
    that Belgian and German producers would shift sales from Europe to the U.S. Both here and in
    the investigation below, Plaintiffs argued that the recent changes in the European Community
    have made it unlikely that Belgian and German producers would shift sales to the U.S.
    In 1993, the European Community19 created the European Single Market (“ESM”), which
    consolidated all of the Community’s customs legislation into a single text and created a free trade
    19
    The European Community presently has fifteen member states: Austria, Belgium,
    Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands,
    Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. At the time of this opinion, the E.C. is
    preparing for the accession of thirteen (13) eastern and southern European countries: Bulgaria,
    Czech Republic, Cyprus, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovenia,
    Slovakia, and Turkey. Europa: The European Union On-Line, http://europa.eu.int/abc-en.htm
    (last visited on April 22, 2002).
    CONSOL. COURT NO . 01-00006                                                              PAGE 18
    zone among member countries. On January 1, 1999, the euro became the single currency for
    most member states in an attempt to further reduce the barriers to intra-community trade by
    eliminating the risk of exchange rate volatility. 20 The German Producers suggest that the ESM
    and euro effectively transformed the E.C. into one large “home market” for E.C. producers.
    In the investigation below, the German Producers submitted extensive evidence that,
    because of developments in the E.C., the German CTL plate sales to other member countries had
    increased substantially since the investigation in 1993. See Prehearing Brief on Behalf of AG der
    Dillinger Hüttenwerke, Salzgitter AG Stahl und Technologie, Stahlwerke Bremen GmbH and
    Thyssen Krupp Stahl AG at 2-12 (Aug. 28, 2000), Pl. App. Tab 5 (hereinafter Prehearing Brief]).
    Between 1993 and 1999, the percentage of German CTL plate sales made to other E.C. members
    increased from 16.92% to 27.74%. Prehearing Brief at 20-21; see also Written Testimony of
    Klaus Heller Concerning German Cut-to-Length Plate Market at Figure 3 (Sept. 15, 2000). By
    1999, almost 90% of German CTL plate sales were E.C. sales (combining sales to both Germany
    and other E.C. members). Id. at 21.
    At roughly the same time, the U.S. producers’ domestic market share grew from 84.1%
    (1992) to 93.2% (first quarter of 2000) during a period where U.S. consumption of CTL plate
    also grew significantly. Compare 1993 ITC Determination at C-3, Pl. App. Tab 1, with Revised
    Staff Report to the Commission at C-3 (Oct. 18, 2000) (hereinafter Revised Staff Report) (from
    4,965,000 short tons in 1992 to over 6,000,000 by 1999). The German Producers attribute these
    20
    On January 1, 1999, the euro became the currency for Belgium, Germany, Spain,
    France, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal and Finland.
    CONSOL. COURT NO . 01-00006                                                                     PAGE 19
    changes in the E.C. and U.S. to “an ever decreasing reliance [by the German Producers] on
    export sales outside of the European Community.”
    Although plaintiffs raised this argument below, the Commission dismissed these changes
    stating simply that “we are not convinced that there has been a shift of such fundamental nature
    as to make significant exports to the United States unlikely.” Final Determination at 40, n. 155
    (emphasis added). The Commission did not cite to any evidence in the Staff Report or elsewhere
    to support this finding. Plaintiffs argues that the Commission has improperly placed the burden
    on Plaintiffs to establish that future imports, and therefore future material injury, is not likely.
    Given the lack of clarity as to the Commission’s definition of “likely,” this may be so. In any
    case, the Commission has not addressed the material arguments of plaintiffs with respect to
    likelihood of competition overlap. See ALTX, Inc. v. United States, 
    167 F. Supp. 2d 1353
    , 1360
    n.6 (Ct. Int’l Trade 2001) (stating that 19 U.S.C. § 1677f(i)(3)(B) requires that the Commission
    properly respond in the Final Determination to all relevant arguments raised by interested
    parties).
    “In order to reach a judgment on the administrative record, the Court must have a basis
    for understanding the reasons for the Commission’s actions.” The Timken Co. v. United States,
    
    20 CIT 1115
    , 1118 (1996). The court may not substitute its judgment for that of the agency. See
    Acciai Speciali Terni, S.p.A. v. United States, 
    19 CIT 1051
    , 1054 (1995). The court must,
    however, be able to reasonably discern that the Commission conducted its analysis in accordance
    with statutory requirements. See, e.g., Taiwan Semiconductor Indus. Ass’n v. United States, 
    59 F. Supp. 2d 1324
    , 1328 n. 7 (Ct. Int’l Trade 1999). “[W]here an explanation is lacking on the
    record, post hoc rationalization for the [Commission’s] actions is insufficient” and remand may
    CONSOL. COURT NO . 01-00006                                                                  PAGE 20
    be appropriate for further explanation. Timken, 20 CIT at 1118, 937 F. Supp. at 955. In view of
    the changes occurring in Europe since the 1993 investigation, the Commission should at
    minimum analyze the effects of those changes. On remand, the Commission should address
    Plaintiffs’ arguments as to whether E.C. changes have affected conditions of competition
    significantly. In so doing, the Commission must determine whether, despite these changes,
    imports to the U.S. are likely to occur, and explain its reasons therefor. To the extent that these
    issues also affect the non-cumulation portion of the determination discussed infra, the same
    considerations apply.
    II. Other Aspects of the Likely Continuation or Recurrence of Material Injury Analysis
    In sunset reviews, the Commission is required to determine whether revocation of
    antidumping or countervailing duty orders is likely to lead to a continuation or recurrence of
    material injury to the domestic industry. 19 U.S.C. § 1675a(a)(1). Pursuant to § 1675a(a)(1), the
    Commission analyzes the likely volume, price effect and impact of subject imports if the orders
    are revoked. Id. The German Producers challenge the Commission’s affirmative determinations
    with respect to each.
    A. Volume
    In finding that volume would likely be significant, the Commission noted that the excess
    capacity of the subject countries “greatly exceed[ed]” the volume of total subject imports in the
    1993 investigations.21 Final Determination at 39. The Commission found that foreign producers
    21
    In 1992, the cumulated volume of all subject imports was 787,626 short tons. The
    German Producers argue that this amount is inflated and that 1992 imports from the cumulated
    countries amounted to 430,618. The Commission was, however, clearly referring to all
    cumulated imports. The point of this comparison was that the excess capacity of the cumulated
    CONSOL. COURT NO . 01-00006                                                                PAGE 21
    have an incentive to increase sales to maximize the use of available capacity. Id. at 42. In 1999,
    cumulated capacity to produce subject plate in ten of the subject countries was 11.5 million short
    tons, and excess subject capacity was 1.8 million short tons. Cumulated capacity to produce both
    subject and nonsubject plate was 13.4 million short tons, with excess total capacity being 1.9
    million short tons. Id. at 39. The Commission noted that all producers of the cumulated subject
    imports, except those in Mexico, export substantial quantities of their production. Id. at 39-40
    (citing Staff Report at PLATE-IV-3-4, 6-13). The Commission found it significant that a number
    of foreign producers were subject to antidumping and countervailing duty findings in other
    countries.22 Final Determination at 40-41. The Commission discussed foreign plate inventories
    in making its finding on likely volume, noting that although importers reported no inventories of
    subject product, the cumulated subject foreign producers reported significant end-of-period
    inventories.23 Id. at 40 n.154, 42. It explained that service centers were becoming increasingly
    consolidated and sought sources of low-cost supplies. Id. at 42.
    The German Producers argue that the Commission’s analysis “ignore[d] the fact that
    several countries, including Germany, were operating at very high levels of capacity utilization.”
    countries was greater than the sum of imports from all countries subject to cumulation in 1992.
    The ITC stated that it obtained this figure from official Commerce statistics. Staff Report at
    PLATE-I-1.
    22
    Brazilian plate was subject to antidumping findings in Canada and Mexico and a
    countervailing duty finding in Mexico; Finnish plate was then subject to an ongoing antidumping
    investigation in Canada; Romanian plate was subject to an antidumping finding in the European
    Union; Spanish plate was subject to antidumping and countervailing duty findings in Canada.
    Final Determination at 41.
    23
    Excluding Poland, there were 1,097,642 short tons in subject foreign producers’
    inventories in 1997, 1,009,785 short tons in 1998 and 949,568 short tons in 1999. Staff Report at
    PLATE-IV-3-4, 6-13.
    CONSOL. COURT NO . 01-00006                                                                   PAGE 22
    German Producers Br. at 26. Between 1993 and 2000, German capacity for all cut-plate
    products, subject and non-subject, decreased greatly. Response to Posthearing Questions, Pl.
    App. Tab 9, Exh. 8.24 Between 1992 and 1999, the German Producers reduced CTL plate
    production by over one million short tons. Staff Report at PLATE-II-5. During roughly the same
    period, German capacity utilization rates increased from 69.18% (1993)25 to 95.36% (2000).26
    The German Producers calculate that unused capacity decreased very significantly between 1993
    and 2000 .27 Id. The German Producers argue that, because of the reduction in unused capacity,
    Germany had virtually no excess capacity for U.S. exports.
    Defendant responds that the Commission did consider these changes but ultimately found
    the present excess subject capacity of the cumulated countries to be significant, especially when
    coupled with the ease with which product mix adjustments could occur, and afforded that fact
    more weight than it gave to the reduction in unused capacity. Final Determination at 39-40. In
    the Final Determination, the Commission acknowledged plaintiffs’ argument that “demand
    conditions in a number of the subject countries may suggest a decreased level of cumulated
    imports,” but went on to rely more heavily upon other factors.28 Id. at 42. The Commission may
    24
    Capacity decreased from [            ] to [              ] short tons during this period.
    25
    Unused capacity in 1993 was [           ] metric tons.
    26
    Unused capacity in 2000 was [          ] metric tons.
    27
    The German Producers calculate that unused capacity decreased from [                      ]
    between 1993 and 2000 from [                     ] to [                   ].
    28
    The Commission relied upon “significant capacity, and excess capacity, to produce
    both subject and non-subject plate products, foreign plate inventories, significant exports by most
    subject producers (sic)and barriers to exporting to third countries.” Final Determination at 42.
    CONSOL. COURT NO . 01-00006                                                                   PAGE 23
    weigh evidence as it sees fit. The same evidence may support a variety of findings. The court
    finds no error in this finding in isolation.
    B. Price Effect
    The German Producers contest the Commission’s determination with respect to the
    likelihood of adverse price effects claiming that German CTL plate consistently exceeded the
    price of domestically produced plate. The German Producers rely on pricing information from
    the industry publication Metal Bulletin regarding U.S. import prices for heavy plate, which is
    outside the scope of the orders.29 Defendant responds that only one importer provided usable
    pricing data to the Commission, and those data accounted for 37.5 percent of imports and such
    imports were from Belgium only. Defendant argues that it would be unreasonable for the
    Commission to extrapolate from data regarding non-commodity plate that is outside the scope of
    the orders in order to draw conclusions regarding the prices of the commodity plate that is within
    the scope. The court agrees with Defendant that it was reasonable for the Commission to afford
    little weight to such incomplete pricing data and to rely instead on data from the original
    investigation.
    C. Impact
    The German Producers argue that the Commission’s impact determination was erroneous
    because, they claim, it was based solely on the Commission’s affirmative findings on volume and
    price effects. In short, plaintiffs argue that the Commission conducted no analysis whatsoever
    and that the affirmative determination was a foregone conclusion. Defendant responds by
    29
    Germany manufactures [
    ]. Supplementary Material IV at CTL-SUPP-17.
    CONSOL. COURT NO . 01-00006                                                                  PAGE 24
    recounting the Commission’s analysis, emphasizing the Commission’s determination that the
    domestic industry was in a weakened state. Final Determination at 46. The Commission found
    that by the end of the review period, operating income had fallen, capacity utilization was low,
    production had decreased, inventories had increased, and that the number of production and
    related workers had decreased, along with their hours worked. Id. The Commission also found
    that capital expenditures had steadily declined. Based on the foregoing, the Commission found
    that the volume and price effects of the cumulated subject imports would likely have a significant
    adverse impact on the domestic industry and would likely cause the domestic industry to lose
    market share in the reasonably foreseeable future. Final Determination at 46-47. The court finds
    that the Commission did not err by analyzing potential impact in the context of likely volume and
    price effects. Of course, as with the Commission’s findings on cumulation, these factors must be
    reviewed in the context of the proper standard, discussed supra Part I.
    III. Facts Available
    The German Producers’ final argument challenges the Commission’s reliance upon a
    limited number of questionnaire responses from U.S. producers. Plaintiffs argue that the
    Commission’s information was incomplete because only twenty-two (22) of the one hundred and
    five (105) producers surveyed submitted responses to ITC questionnaires. Plaintiffs compare this
    return to that in Certain Cut-to-Length Plate From France, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, and
    Korea, in which 29 producers submitted information. USITC Pub. 3273 at III-1. Arguing that
    the majority of producers failing to respond were service centers, plaintiffs suggest that the
    domestic industry under-reported capacity, production, and shipment information. Plaintiffs
    CONSOL. COURT NO . 01-00006                                                                   PAGE 25
    specifically point to a discrepancy between this review, in which reported U.S. consumption in
    1998 was 8,222,194 short tons, and Certain Cut-to-Length Plate from France, in which reported
    U.S. consumption was 9,692,346 short tons for the same year. Plaintiffs argue that the
    difference, almost 1.5 million short tons, is illustrative of overall under-reporting by the domestic
    industry. Plaintiffs argue that the Commission should have resorted to other information as facts
    available pursuant to 19 U.S.C. § 1677e(a).
    Although the Commission must obtain all accessible or obtainable information respecting
    the economic factors it uses for its analysis, this does not require “a level of diligence beyond that
    required by statute or the substantial evidence test.” Allegheny Ludlum Corp. v. United States,
    
    116 F. Supp.2d 1276
    , 1296 n.37 (2000). Nonetheless, because this potentially significant
    discrepancy was pointed out by the parties, the Commission must make an effort to analyze it
    and weigh the evidence accordingly in conjunction with its overall remand analysis.
    CONCLUSION
    For the reasons discussed, the court cannot sustain the Commission’s Final
    Determination. Because sunset reviews are prospective, the Act’s statutory analyses require the
    Commission to predict whether future events are “likely.” With regard to the definition of
    “likely,” the court finds that the statute is clear. On remand, the Commission must apply the
    common meaning of “likely” – that is, probable – in conducting the relevant sunset review
    analyses (cumulation and non-cumulation). In support of any affirmative determinations, the
    Commission must cite to substantial evidence showing that its predictions are not only possible,
    but probable. The Commission must specifically address Plaintiffs’ argument that recent
    CONSOL. COURT NO . 01-00006                                                                PAGE 26
    developments in the European Community will deter German and Belgian producers from
    shipping subject imports to the U.S. To support an affirmative determination, the Commission
    must cite substantial evidence showing that injury from subject imports to the U.S. are likely
    despite these changes. The United States International Trade Commission shall issue its Remand
    Determination on or before July 1, 2002. Objections may be made within 20 days thereafter.
    Parties may submit comments on those objections within 10 days after objections are due.
    ____________________________
    Jane A. Restani
    JUDGE
    Dated: New York, New York
    This 29th day of April, 2002