v. Genrich , 2019 COA 132 ( 2019 )


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  •      The summaries of the Colorado Court of Appeals published opinions
    constitute no part of the opinion of the division but have been prepared by
    the division for the convenience of the reader. The summaries may not be
    cited or relied upon as they are not the official language of the division.
    Any discrepancy between the language in the summary and in the opinion
    should be resolved in favor of the language in the opinion.
    SUMMARY
    August 29, 2019
    2019COA132
    No. 16CA0651, People v. Genrich — Topical subject
    keywords
    In the wake of a report funded by Congress and published by
    the National Academy of Science that calls into question the
    scientific method underlying toolmark identification, a division of
    the court of appeals considers whether a defendant is entitled to an
    evidentiary hearing based on newly discovered evidence.
    A majority of the division, including a special concurrence,
    holds that the report — coupled with an affidavit of an expert
    witness applying the report to the toolmark evidence sustaining the
    defendant’s conviction — is sufficient to warrant an evidentiary
    hearing under Crim. P. 35(c).
    However, the dissent disagrees, concluding that the report and
    accompanying affidavit are not newly discovered evidence, but
    rather unapplied academic theories — the content of which the
    defense essentially presented at trial, long before the report’s
    publication.
    The majority also concludes that the supreme court’s decision
    in Farrar v. People, 
    208 P.3d 802
    (Colo. 2009), did not announce a
    heightened standard for ordering a new trial based on newly
    discovered evidence. The special concurrence takes it a step further
    to state that, even if Farrar imposed a heightened standard, it
    applies only to victim recantation cases. The dissent counters these
    conclusions, asserting that Farrar declared that newly discovered
    evidence must be material such that it is affirmatively probative of
    innocence, and that the supreme court did not indicate that
    recantation should be treated differently than any other type of
    newly discovered evidence.
    Finally, the special concurrence concludes, but the dissent
    disagrees, that due process concerns also entitle the defendant to
    an evidentiary hearing.
    COLORADO COURT OF APPEALS                                     2019COA132
    ______________________________________________________________________________
    Court of Appeals No. 16CA0651
    Mesa County District Court No. 92CR95
    Honorable Richard T. Gurley, Judge
    ______________________________________________________________________________
    The People of the State of Colorado,
    Plaintiff-Appellee,
    v.
    James Genrich,
    Defendant-Appellant.
    ______________________________________________________________________________
    ORDER AFFIRMED IN PART, REVERSED IN PART,
    AND CASE REMANDED WITH DIRECTIONS
    Division I
    Opinion by JUDGE TAUBMAN
    Berger, J., specially concurs
    Tow, J., concurs in part and dissents in part
    Announced August 29, 2019
    ______________________________________________________________________________
    Philip J. Weiser, Attorney General, Matthew S. Holman, First Assistant
    Attorney General, Denver, Colorado, for Plaintiff-Appellee
    Cummins Krulewitch, Beth L. Krulewitch, Aspen, Colorado; Weil, Gotshal &
    Manges, LLP, Irwin H. Warren, Edward Soto, New York, New York; M. Chris
    Fabricant, Dana M. Delger, New York, New York, for Defendant-Appellant
    ¶1    Defendant, James Genrich, appeals the district court’s denial
    of his Crim. P. 35(c) motion for postconviction relief. He contends
    that the district court erred in denying him an evidentiary hearing
    to prove allegations set forth in his motion and incorporated
    affidavit. In support of his argument, he points to a 2009 report,
    commissioned by Congress and published by the National Academy
    of Sciences, Nat’l Research Council of the Nat’l Acads.,
    Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States: A Path Forward
    (2009), https://perma.cc/8H3Q-S9SU (hereinafter NAS Report),
    that found toolmark identification evidence — which served as a
    linchpin in the prosecution’s case against him — had not been
    scientifically validated. He also alleges that the district court
    violated his right to due process by admitting such evidence to
    support his conviction. In addition, he contends that the opinions
    of a forensic scientist, premised on extensive scholarship, review of
    the evidence, knowledge of contemporary scientific consensus, and
    authorship of the NAS Report, constitute newly discovered evidence
    that undermines confidence in the jury’s verdicts. We agree in part
    and remand for a new evidentiary hearing.
    1
    ¶2    Following oral arguments, we requested that the parties file
    supplemental briefs addressing (1) whether Farrar v. People, 
    208 P.3d 702
    (Colo. 2009), establishes a new standard for granting a
    new trial based on a claim of newly discovered evidence; and, if so,
    (2) whether the proffered newly discovered evidence set forth in the
    petition for postconviction relief is affirmatively probative of
    Genrich’s innocence.
    I. Law of this Case
    ¶3    Based on my opinion, Judge Berger’s concurring opinion, and
    Judge Tow’s partially dissenting opinion, we believe that the law of
    this case is as follows:
    • The postconviction court’s order denying Genrich’s Crim.
    P. 35(c) motion is affirmed in part and reversed in part.
    It is affirmed as to all of Genrich’s convictions other than
    his convictions for class 1 felonies. It is reversed as to
    the class 1 felonies, and the case is remanded to the
    postconviction court for an evidentiary hearing and for
    findings of fact and conclusions of law following the
    hearing.
    2
    • Farrar v. People, 
    208 P.3d 702
    , 706-07 (Colo. 2009), did
    not establish a heightened standard for Genrich’s Crim.
    P. 35(c) newly discovered evidence claim. Instead, on
    remand the postconviction court should apply the
    supreme court’s holdings in People v. Rodriguez, 
    914 P.2d 230
    , 292 (Colo. 1996); People v. Gutierrez, 
    622 P.2d 547
    , 559 (Colo. 1981); People v. Scheidt, 
    187 Colo. 20
    ,
    22, 
    528 P.2d 232
    , 233 (1974); and Digiallonardo v.
    People, 
    175 Colo. 560
    , 568, 
    488 P.2d 1109
    , 1113 (1971).
    • This division has not made a determination whether the
    exclusion of O’Neil’s testimony would likely result in an
    acquittal; that determination is for the postconviction
    court to make following the evidentiary hearing.
    ¶4    This division expresses no view as to whether Genrich
    ultimately is entitled to a new trial.
    II. Background
    ¶5    Genrich was convicted of two counts of first degree murder,
    and multiple other felonies, arising from a series of pipe bombs
    detonated in Grand Junction, Colorado, in 1991.
    3
    ¶6    In April 1989, law enforcement officers launched an
    investigation in connection with a pipe bomb discovered and
    disarmed in the parking lot of the La Court Motor Lodge in Grand
    Junction. Investigators did not identify the perpetrator, and the
    case lay dormant until three pipe bombs exploded within months of
    each other in the spring of 1991. The bombs — set off at the Two
    Rivers Convention Center, a residence, and the Feedlot Restaurant
    — left one injured and two dead, spurring terror in Grand Junction
    and a joint investigation by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco,
    Firearms and Explosives (ATF) and local police.
    ¶7    ATF investigators connected the bombings to a serial bomber,
    with Genrich as their primary suspect. They based their suspicions
    on reports of his unusual behavior, including his former
    employment at the convention center and his presence near the
    area of the explosion hours before the detonation of the first of the
    three 1991 bombs. Investigators learned that Genrich had inquired
    at a local bookstore about the Anarchist Cookbook — a book that,
    among other things, contained instructions for manufacturing
    explosives.
    4
    ¶8    Officer Robert Russell and ATF Agent Larry Kresl spoke with
    Genrich twice during the summer of 1991. On both occasions,
    Genrich invited them into his one-room apartment in a boarding
    house and voluntarily answered their questions. During the first
    conversation, Genrich indicated that he was aware of the bombs at
    the convention center and the Feedlot Restaurant, stating that he
    had heard the explosion at the Feedlot from his apartment, but that
    he did not know any details about the incidents. Genrich also
    shared his background with Officer Russell and Agent Kresl. He
    said he had studied electronics at DeVry Technical Trade Institute
    in Phoenix, Arizona, after he graduated from high school and
    continued to live in Phoenix for a time (including during April 1989,
    when the first pipe bomb was discovered). Genrich explained that
    he had worked at the convention center but quit because there was
    not much work. He denied ordering the Anarchist Cookbook but
    admitted that he was familiar with it because he had seen it in a
    Phoenix bookstore where he had worked. When Officer Russell
    asked about his relationship with women, he said that he “gets
    upset with women easy.”
    5
    ¶9     During Genrich’s second conversation with Officer Russell,
    and ATF Agents Kresl and Jeffrey Brouse, Genrich allowed the
    agents to search his room. The agents discovered two electrical
    Buss-type fuses and a handwritten note expressing anger,
    frustration, and threatening violence against women. Genrich
    admitted writing the note.
    ¶ 10   Based on this investigation, Officer Russell obtained and
    executed a search warrant for Genrich’s apartment. During this
    formal search, he found a second note, similar to the first, also
    threatening to kill unspecified persons, as well as an electrical fuse,
    a pair of yellow-handled needle-nose pliers with wire cutters, metal
    wires, a plastic toolbox containing a soldering iron and green-
    handled pliers, a second toolbox containing yellow-handled pliers
    and other tools, a home and auto electrical repair kit, wire
    strippers, and an electrical circuit board. However, investigators
    did not find traces of gunpowder or other explosives; mercury
    switches; bombmaking instructions; or diagrams, drawings, or
    prototypes of plans to construct bombs.
    ¶ 11   While Officer Russell conducted his search of Genrich’s
    apartment, Genrich agreed to speak with ATF Agent Debra Dassler.
    6
    She testified that he told her he had moved back to Grand Junction
    two and a half years earlier and that, since he had been back, he
    often walked around alone late at night. He also told her that he
    had attempted to order the Anarchist Cookbook at a bookstore to
    “piss the lady off at the bookstore.”
    ¶ 12   During their conversation, he volunteered that he would not
    blow up the convention center because he had two friends who
    worked there. When she asked him what he thought the agents
    were looking for in their search of his apartment, he replied that
    they would probably take his electronics tools because they could
    be used to make a bomb.
    ¶ 13   He also said he knew that a bomb had exploded at a
    residence. He recognized the address but indicated that because he
    did not own a car, “it would be a long way for him to walk.”
    Following the search, the items seized were sent to labs and ATF
    agents commenced round-the-clock, covert surveillance. However,
    at some point, Genrich realized that he was being watched and
    engaged ATF agents in conversation, insisting that he was not the
    bomber.
    7
    ¶ 14   Meanwhile, Agent Brouse visited twenty-five hardware stores
    in the Grand Junction area to determine which stores carried pipe
    fittings, specifically “Coin brand end caps,” which were used in the
    construction of the bombs. Agent Brouse found only one store
    carrying that brand of end caps, Surplus City; it was located five
    blocks from Genrich’s apartment. An employee recalled having
    seen Genrich wandering the aisles where the galvanized pipe,1
    ammunition, and guns were stocked.
    ¶ 15   The surveillance of Genrich did not result in any inculpatory
    evidence. Further, no crime lab tests showed any trace of
    gunpowder or other explosive residue on Genrich’s seized
    belongings, and no fingerprints were found on the bombs.
    ¶ 16   In an effort to obtain a confession, agents asked Genrich’s
    parents to wear an electronic recording device to allow them to
    listen in on a rehearsed conversation with Genrich, which invited
    Genrich to admit that he had committed the crimes. However,
    Genrich denied involvement and instead expressed dismay that his
    1Jerry Hill, the prosecution’s expert witness in crime scene analysis
    and explosives analysis, testified that all three of the 1991 pipe
    bombs were made with galvanized steel.
    8
    mother and stepfather could believe he was capable of carrying out
    the bombings.
    ¶ 17   Based on the evidence described above, a grand jury indicted
    him on two counts of murder and related felonies.
    ¶ 18   The trial at which he was convicted took place in 1993. The
    prosecution called two principal expert witnesses at trial, John
    O’Neil — an ATF expert in firearms and, as relevant here, toolmark
    identification — and Agent Jerry Taylor — an expert in bomb
    technology and explosives analysis.
    ¶ 19         O’Neil was qualified as an expert based on his on-the-job
    training as a firearms and toolmark examiner during lengthy
    employment with the ATF. Although he lacked an advanced degree,
    he had testified as an expert approximately 465 times and used
    scientific techniques accepted at the time to identify toolmarks. 2
    O’Neil testified regarding the basis for his analysis of toolmarks,
    telling the jury that all tools possess unique identifiers at a
    microscopic level, and these unique characteristics imprint a
    signature mark on other substances, such as wire, that come into
    2“Toolmarks are generated when a hard object (tool) comes into
    contact with a relatively softer object.” NAS Report, at 150.
    9
    contact with the tool. According to O’Neil, these signature marks
    enabled him to determine whether a particular tool made a
    particular mark. He explained that, during his examination, he
    must “figure out how that tool was used, how it was applied to the
    object. If it’s a cutting type of tool, was it cut at an angle? Was it
    perpendicular to the object? Did he move it as he cut through the
    wire?”
    ¶ 20   He also told the jury that he was the first person in his field to
    distinguish the characteristics3 for “cutting type” tools and
    “gripping type” tools. He further testified that, after determining to
    what class a tool belongs and how it was used, an examiner can
    microscopically determine whether a “suspect tool” was responsible
    for the striations made on a wire that are caused by the unique
    manufacturing marks left on the tool.
    ¶ 21   He further opined that he had never encountered a situation
    in which the mark left by a tool was not unique. He based this
    opinion on an experiment he had conducted by examining two tools
    3 O’Neil explained that certain observable characteristics of
    toolmarks, including the type, shape, and dimension of the
    impression, allow him to determine what type of tool was used to
    make the impression.
    10
    manufactured consecutively on the same assembly line. He
    observed that “although there [were] similarities between [the] two
    tools, it was very easy to determine that [the] marks that were left
    behind were entirely different.”
    ¶ 22   He admitted that he had no background in statistical theory,
    inferential statistics, mathematical statistics, probability theory,
    experiment design, sampling methods, sampling techniques, quality
    control, or bias in experiment design. Nevertheless, he told the jury
    that he had identified three tools seized from Genrich’s room — to
    the exclusion of any other tool — as the tools used in the creation of
    one or more of the bombs. The prosecution relied on O’Neil’s
    testimony about “individualization” — the unique marks made by
    each cutting tool — to support its theory that Genrich constructed
    each of the bombs.
    ¶ 23   After O’Neil’s testimony, Agent Taylor testified, based on his
    analysis of the unexploded 1989 bomb and reconstructions of the
    other three, that a serial bomber was responsible for all four bombs
    found in 1989 and 1991. Agent Taylor testified that, in his
    experience in examining 10,000 bombs, the four bombs in question
    11
    were unlike any he had seen, which led him to conclude they were
    made by the same person.
    ¶ 24   He further recounted that Surplus City — the store located a
    few blocks from Genrich’s residence — carried all the items required
    to construct the bombs.
    ¶ 25   During closing arguments, the People focused on the
    interconnectedness of the detonations, relying on O’Neil’s expert
    testimony:
    • all four bombs were identically constructed;
    • three specific tools — [Genrich’s] needle-nose wire
    cutters, his wire strippers with the chip in the blade, and
    his yellow-handled pliers — were used to build the
    bombs; and
    • Genrich was the only person who had possession of or
    access to those tools; he never loaned them to anyone.
    ¶ 26   The prosecutor added, “If you need further proof that all three
    of these are linked together, you get that from John O’Neil . . .
    [n]one of the 700 people who were in the Association of Firearms
    and Toolmark Examiners will say he’s wrong.”
    12
    ¶ 27   To counter this expert testimony, the defense presented
    evidence that two of the four bombings appeared to have been
    aimed at specific targets apparently unknown to Genrich; law
    enforcement officials had not investigated alternate suspects who,
    unlike Genrich, had experience with explosives; Genrich lived in
    Phoenix at the time of the first explosion in 1989 and so could not
    have placed a bomb in Grand Junction then; and Genrich did not
    drive or own a car, making it difficult to transport and place the
    volatile explosive devices without detonation.
    ¶ 28   The jury returned guilty verdicts after four days of
    deliberation, convicting Genrich of two counts of first degree
    murder, three counts of use of an explosive or incendiary device in
    the commission of a felony, and one count of third degree assault.
    ¶ 29   Genrich directly appealed, and a division of this court
    affirmed. The division specifically held that toolmark identification
    evidence was widely accepted by courts across the country and that
    the admission of O’Neil’s opinions did not constitute error. People
    v. Genrich, 
    928 P.2d 799
    (Colo. App. 1996).
    ¶ 30   In February 2016, nearly two decades after the supreme court
    denied certiorari, Genrich moved under Crim. P. 35(c) for a new
    13
    trial based on newly discovered evidence. He supported his motion
    with an affidavit of a scientist who opined that years after Genrich’s
    trial, scientists had concluded that there was no scientific basis for
    most of O’Neil’s opinions. The expert relied on the 2009 NAS
    Report, which concluded that there was no scientific underpinning
    for the types of opinions given by O’Neil. Specifically, the report
    determined, among other things, that conclusions reached on the
    foundational theory of toolmark identification (used by O’Neil) —
    especially the association of evidence to a known source — had no
    basis in scientifically validated principles.
    ¶ 31   A sworn affidavit from Dr. Jay Siegel, a member of the
    committee that authored the NAS Report, explained that he could
    provide expert testimony to explain the relevance of the NAS Report
    to Genrich’s case and relate it to the toolmark identification relied
    on by the prosecution. Dr. Siegel’s affidavit stated that the NAS
    Report “calls into question whether the conclusion of
    individualization — the exclusive sourcing of a tool mark to one
    particular tool — is ever justified.”
    ¶ 32   In his motion for a new trial, Genrich alleged that, because the
    sole evidence (Dr. Siegel’s tool characterization) tying him to the
    14
    pipe bombs was faulty science now condemned nationally by
    forensic science experts, his conviction had been based on false
    evidence and was invalid. Genrich requested an evidentiary hearing
    on these issues, but by written order the district court denied his
    motion without a hearing.
    ¶ 33   In its order, the district court relied on several cases in which
    courts outside of Colorado had concluded that toolmark evidence,
    at least the marks left by a firearm, remained sufficiently reliable to
    justify its admission in a criminal trial. In applying the test for a
    new trial based on newly discovered evidence, the court concluded
    that Genrich’s claims did not satisfy the third and fourth prongs of
    People v. Muniz, 
    928 P.2d 1352
    (Colo. App. 1996). Applying People
    v. Shreck, 
    22 P.3d 68
    (Colo. 2001), which established Colorado’s
    test for the admission of expert testimony, the court concluded that
    both at the time of Genrich’s trial and at the time the court decided
    Genrich’s Crim. P. 35(c) motion, O’Neil’s testimony remained
    sufficiently reliable to be presented to a jury. According to the
    court, the NAS Report and Dr. Siegel’s opinions merely impeached
    O’Neil’s opinions, and newly discovered evidence that is merely
    impeaching does not warrant a new trial under Muniz. Genrich
    15
    moved for reconsideration of the order denying his motion for a new
    trial, presenting a second affidavit from Dr. Siegel. In that affidavit
    Dr. Siegel distinguished firearm identification from toolmark
    identification, explaining that
    [s]ince there is only one way for a bullet to
    travel down the barrel of a gun, so long as the
    same weapon is used with the same type of
    ammunition, the markings on a bullet or
    cartridge will be relatively reproducible
    through many consecutive firings. Thus . . .
    there is some basis to express opinions
    regarding the probability that the subject gun
    fired the recovered evidence. The same is not
    true . . . where the tool at issue is . . . a
    common hand tool, such as a wire cutter. The
    marks made by a wire cutter are impacted by
    numerous variables that include the
    examiner’s ability to replicate the exact
    manner in which the tool was used . . . .
    The court, noting that nothing in Crim. P. 35(c) permits a
    motion for reconsideration, treated the motion for
    reconsideration as a C.R.C.P. 60(b) motion, and denied it,
    concluding that it was merely a reiteration of the original
    Crim. P. 35(c) motion.
    III. Preliminary Preservation Matters
    ¶ 34   Section 16-5-402, C.R.S. 2018, imposes a three-year time
    limitation for collateral attacks on felonies other than class 1
    16
    felonies. (No time limit applies to challenges to convictions of class
    1 felonies.) If a defendant files a motion after the applicable time
    limit runs, he or she must assert justifiable excuse or excusable
    neglect. Id.; People v. Wiedemer, 
    852 P.2d 424
    , 428 (Colo. 1993). If
    no such exception is alleged, our review is limited to claims and
    allegations presented to the district court in the original Crim. P.
    35(c) motion. Therefore, we may not consider claims or allegations
    in a Rule 35(c) motion raised for the first time on appeal. People v.
    Stovall, 
    2012 COA 7M
    , ¶ 3, 
    284 P.3d 151
    , 153.
    ¶ 35   With this standard in mind, we agree with the People that
    Genrich failed to set forth an exception to the time limitation
    imposed on his three convictions for the use of an explosive or
    incendiary device in the commission of a felony and his conviction
    for third degree assault. Accordingly, we limit his challenge to his
    murder convictions.
    ¶ 36   We also agree that his argument regarding a 2016 report,
    President’s Council of Advisors on Sci. & Tech., Exec. Office of the
    President, Forensic Science in Criminal Courts: Ensuring Scientific
    Validity of Feature-Comparison Methods (2016),
    https://perma.cc/J3EA-QP7V, that purportedly undermines the
    17
    “degree of certainty to the exclusion of any other tool” and that
    O’Neil asserted in support of his theory of individualization was not
    preserved. Stovall, ¶ 
    3, 284 P.3d at 153
    . Therefore, we may not
    consider this report.
    IV. Validity of Expert Testimony Used to Convict
    ¶ 37   Genrich contends that the district court erred in denying him
    an evidentiary hearing. We agree with respect to his murder
    convictions.
    A. Standard of Review
    ¶ 38   We review de novo a postconviction court’s decision to deny a
    Crim. P. 35(c) motion without holding an evidentiary hearing.
    People v. Gardner, 
    250 P.3d 1262
    , 1266 (Colo. App. 2010). A court
    may deny a Crim. P. 35(c) motion without a hearing only if “the
    motion and the files and record of the case” establish that the
    allegations lack merit and do not entitle the defendant to relief.
    Crim. P. 35(c)(3)(IV); Kazadi v. People, 
    2012 CO 73
    , ¶ 17, 
    291 P.3d 16
    , 22.
    18
    B. Applicable Law
    1. Muniz
    ¶ 39   While motions for a new trial based on newly discovered
    evidence are disfavored, in some cases injustice can only be avoided
    by granting a new trial. The bar to prevail on a motion for a new
    trial based on newly discovered evidence is high but not
    insurmountable. “Depending upon such things as the nature of the
    additional evidence, the circumstances of its discovery, and the
    strength of the existing evidence supporting conviction, we have at
    times highlighted different considerations in making the
    determination and have articulated the applicable standards in a
    variety of terms.” 
    Farrar, 208 P.3d at 706
    .
    ¶ 40   The traditional standard applied by Colorado courts to a
    motion for a new trial based on newly discovered evidence requires
    a defendant to show that (1) the evidence was discovered after trial;
    (2) the defendant and his attorney exercised due diligence to
    discover all possible favorable evidence prior to and during trial; (3)
    the newly discovered evidence is material to the issues involved and
    not merely cumulative or impeaching; and (4) the newly discovered
    19
    evidence is of such character as probably to bring about an
    acquittal if presented at another trial. 
    Muniz, 928 P.2d at 1357
    .
    2. Farrar
    ¶ 41   In Farrar, a case involving the recantation of testimony by a
    sexual assault victim, the supreme court stated that newly
    discovered evidence
    must be consequential in the sense of being
    affirmatively probative of the defendant’s
    innocence, whether that is accomplished by
    helping to demonstrate that someone else
    probably committed the crime; that the
    defendant probably could not have committed
    the crime; or even that the crime was probably
    not committed at all.
    
    Farrar, 208 P.3d at 707
    .
    ¶ 42   In his supplemental brief, the Attorney General argues that
    whatever the reach of the allegations in Genrich’s postconviction
    motion, they are not affirmatively probative of his innocence.
    ¶ 43   We conclude that the above-quoted language in Farrar did not
    establish a new test for granting a motion for a new trial based on
    newly discovered evidence and that the test announced in Muniz
    remains the law.
    20
    a. Farrar Did Not Announce a New Test
    ¶ 44   While the Farrar court stated that the new evidence must be
    affirmatively probative of the defendant’s innocence, a careful
    reading of Farrar reveals that the court did not apply any such
    heightened test. The court actually applied the Muniz test set forth
    in Digiallonardo v. People, 
    175 Colo. 560
    , 567-68, 
    488 P.2d 1109
    ,
    1113 (1971), and People v. Scheidt, 
    187 Colo. 20
    , 22, 
    528 P.2d 232
    ,
    233 (1974).
    ¶ 45   Supporting this reading of Farrar is the following statement:
    “In addition to probably being believed by reasonable jurors, the
    witness’s new version of events must be of such significance in its
    own right as to probably cause reasonable jurors to acquit the
    defendant.” 
    Farrar, 208 P.3d at 708
    . This language mirrors the
    traditional standard set forth in Muniz — “the newly discovered
    evidence is of such character as probably to bring about an
    acquittal verdict if presented at another 
    trial.” 928 P.2d at 1357
    .
    Further, the dissent in Farrar did not interpret the majority’s
    opinion as articulating a new standard displacing Muniz; instead, it
    argued that the evidence there was of such significance as to
    probably bring about Farrar’s acquittal on retrial. Farrar, 
    208 P.3d 21
      at 710 (Bender, J., dissenting) (“The majority states that new
    impeachment evidence can justify a new trial only when it is of
    such significance that it would probably bring about an acquittal
    before a new jury.”).
    b. Application of Farrar by Other Divisions
    ¶ 46   Since Farrar, divisions of our court have consistently applied
    the Muniz test. See People v. Gee, 
    2015 COA 151
    , ¶ 73, 
    371 P.3d 714
    , 725-26 (citing Muniz as the applicable standard to analyze
    whether newly discovered evidence warrants a new trial). Though
    two divisions of our court have cited the above-quoted language in
    Farrar, neither applied its “actual innocence” language.
    ¶ 47   In People v. Hopper, 
    284 P.3d 87
    (Colo. App. 2011), the
    defendant was charged with two counts of possession of a
    controlled substance, two special offender sentencing counts, and
    one count of possession of a dangerous weapon in connection with
    a search of the vehicle in which the defendant was riding that
    uncovered firearms, drug paraphernalia, and drugs. 
    Id. at 89.
    At
    trial, he argued that the other men he was riding with planted the
    illegal items in the vehicle — unbeknownst to him — and
    repositioned them to implicate him in the crime. 
    Id. In a
    motion for
    22
    a new trial, the defendant offered newly discovered witness
    testimony from two inmates housed in the same facility as the men
    who purportedly framed the defendant for the crimes. 
    Id. at 92-93.
    The inmates were prepared to testify that the other men had
    admitted allowing the defendant to “go[] down for something [one of
    the men] had done,” one of the other men had transferred the guns
    and drugs into the vehicle, and the guns and drugs belonged to one
    of the other men. 
    Id. at 93.
    The division concluded that none of the
    testimony offered was material or affirmatively probative of the
    defendant’s innocence because, along with part of it being
    cumulative, the defendant’s possession and ownership of the
    weapons and drugs were not at issue in the trial. Thus, the
    proffered evidence was not material under any standard because it
    would not have undermined the conviction.
    ¶ 48   Significantly, the Hopper division did not address whether the
    above-quoted Farrar language set forth a new standard. 
    Id. at 92-
    93. Although the division cited the above-quoted Farrar language,
    it does not appear that it actually relied on it. Instead, it relied on
    three other grounds to dismiss the defendant’s petition — the
    23
    proffered new evidence was cumulative, not probative of a matter at
    issue, and lacked any potential to undermine the conviction.
    ¶ 49     Similarly, in People v. Poindexter, the division cited the above-
    quoted language in Farrar, but ultimately applied the standard
    articulated in Muniz. 
    2013 COA 93
    , ¶¶ 44, 51, 
    338 P.3d 352
    , 360,
    361.
    ¶ 50     Accordingly, we conclude that Farrar did not establish a new
    standard for motions for a new trial based on newly discovered
    evidence.
    C. Analysis: Muniz Applies Here
    ¶ 51     Concluding that the standard articulated in 
    Muniz, 928 P.2d at 1357
    , applies here, I must first determine what constitutes new
    evidence. Academic theories may form the basis for an expert to
    interpret existing evidence. See People v. Bonan, 
    2014 COA 156
    ,
    ¶ 31, 
    357 P.3d 231
    , 236 (explaining that, while academic theories
    applied to existing evidence may form the basis for interpreting
    evidence, unapplied academic theories do not constitute evidence at
    all). The new evidence must demonstrate sufficient materiality to
    suggest that, when considered with all evidence presented at trial,
    “a reasonable jury would probably conclude that there existed a
    24
    reasonable doubt as to defendant’s guilt and thereby bring about an
    acquittal verdict.” People v. Tomey, 
    969 P.2d 785
    , 787 (Colo. App.
    1998); see also Mason v. People, 
    25 P.3d 764
    , 768 (Colo. 2001). We
    must consider this standard through the lens of the district court’s
    threshold determination in a Crim. P. 35(c) motion: Can the
    defendant’s petition for postconviction relief be denied without the
    benefit of an evidentiary hearing? It is the trial court’s
    responsibility to determine the weight of the proffered evidence, and
    based on that, to conclude whether the evidence would probably
    result in acquittal if presented at another trial. Thus, if the facts
    alleged in the Crim. P. 35(c) motion, taken as true, may entitle the
    defendant to a new trial, the court must conduct an evidentiary
    hearing.
    ¶ 52   Scientific advances in forensic evidence have been the basis
    for new evidentiary hearings and new trials throughout the country.
    See Andrea Roth, Safety in Numbers? Deciding When DNA Alone Is
    Enough to Convict, 85 N.Y.U. L. Rev. 1130 (2010). Significantly, the
    United States Supreme Court has relied on the NAS Report’s
    findings and analysis by other legal scholars, observing that
    “[s]erious deficiencies have been found in the forensic evidence used
    25
    in criminal trials.” Melendez-Diaz v. Massachusetts, 
    557 U.S. 305
    ,
    319 (2009). Writing for the majority in Melendez-Diaz, Justice
    Scalia quoted the report’s conclusion that “[t]he forensic science
    system, encompassing both research and practice, has serious
    problems that can only be addressed by a national commitment to
    overhaul the current structure that supports the forensic science
    community in this country.” 
    Id. (quoting NAS
    Report, at xx). The
    Court also pointed out that “[o]ne study of cases in which
    exonerating evidence resulted in the overturning of criminal
    convictions concluded that invalid forensic testimony contributed to
    the convictions in 60% of the cases.” 
    Id. (citing Brandon
    L. Garrett
    & Peter J. Neufeld, Invalid Forensic Science Testimony and Wrongful
    Convictions, 
    95 Va. L
    . Rev. 1, 14 (2009)).
    ¶ 53   In State v. Behn, a New Jersey court recognized that a study
    calling into question an expert witness’s opinion as to the
    uniqueness and source of bullet lead, conducted after the
    defendant’s conviction, constituted new evidence entitling the
    defendant to a new trial. 
    868 A.2d 329
    , 344 (N.J. Super. Ct. App.
    Div. 2005).
    26
    ¶ 54      I next turn to the question of whether the evidence could have
    been discovered prior to or during trial with due diligence. 
    Muniz, 928 P.2d at 1357
    . However, for our purposes, a report issued
    nineteen years after a defendant’s conviction indisputably could not
    have been discovered prior to or during the trial. Though Genrich
    proffered his own expert to rebut O’Neil’s testimony, the toolmark
    identification methods used by O’Neil were generally accepted at the
    time.
    ¶ 55      Turning to the third and fourth prongs of the Muniz analysis, I
    address the questions of materiality and magnitude.
    ¶ 56      In Farrar, the supreme court declared that a witness’s
    recantation necessarily impeaches the recanting witness’s
    credibility; thus, witness recantation justifies a new trial only when
    it contradicts the prior testimony with a different and more credible
    
    account. 208 P.3d at 708
    . Similarly, in Tomey, a division of our
    court concluded that newly discovered evidence consisting of a
    victim’s hearsay statement that was inconsistent with the victim’s
    former testimony necessitated a new 
    trial. 969 P.2d at 787
    . The
    division reasoned that the statement presented more than mere
    27
    impeachment evidence because, if believed, it would mean that the
    victim had lied about key facts at trial. 
    Id. ¶ 57
      The Behn court applied an analysis similar to that required by
    Muniz and determined that the report at issue there demonstrated
    sufficient materiality because it called into question key evidence
    relied on at 
    trial. 868 A.2d at 344
    . In deciding whether the report
    was mere impeachment evidence, the court considered the test
    concerning materiality of undisclosed exculpatory evidence
    established in Brady v. Maryland, 
    373 U.S. 83
    (1963). 
    Id. “Under the
    Brady standard, ‘withheld evidence that is material may be that
    which impeaches a witness where the issue of the witness’
    reliability and credibility is crucial.’” 
    Id. at 345
    (quoting State v.
    Henries, 
    704 A.2d 24
    , 35 (N.J. Super. Ct. App. Div. 1997)).
    Concluding that the results of the study would have effectively
    neutralized the testimony of a key expert in the prosecution’s case,
    the court determined that the study probably could have changed
    the jury’s verdict. 
    Id. It reasoned
    that “[w]hile the State’s case,
    although circumstantial, was strong, it was ‘far from
    overwhelming.’” 
    Id. (quoting State
    v. Ways, 
    850 A.2d 440
    , 453 (N.J.
    28
    2004)). Thus, the court granted a new trial based on the newly
    discovered evidence. 
    Id. at 346.
    ¶ 58   The Third and Ninth Circuits have also allowed a defendant to
    seek relief from convictions based on flawed forensic evidence by
    alleging a constitutional violation. Gimenez v. Ochoa, 
    821 F.3d 1136
    , 1144 (9th Cir. 2016); Han Tak Lee v. Houtzdale SCI, 
    798 F.3d 159
    , 162 (3d Cir. 2015); Albrecht v. Horn, 
    485 F.3d 103
    , 124 n.7 (3d
    Cir. 2007). The Han Tak Lee court granted habeas corpus relief to a
    defendant based on new developments in the field of fire science
    that undermined the reliability of expert testimony about arson
    provided at the defendant’s 
    trial. 798 F.3d at 167
    . There, the Third
    Circuit determined that the expert testimony on arson “constituted
    the principal pillar of proof tying [the defendant] to th[e] arson fire
    and the death of [the victim],” and the remaining evidence at his
    trial was insufficient to prove the defendant’s guilt beyond a
    reasonable doubt. 
    Id. at 167-69.
    ¶ 59   Though we need not conclude here that forensic evidence later
    deemed flawed violates a defendant’s constitutional rights, we find
    it instructive in connection with our analysis of whether newly
    discovered evidence based on the motion, files, and record, taken as
    29
    true, entitles a defendant to a new evidentiary hearing. See Crim.
    P. 35(c); cf. 
    Farrar, 208 P.3d at 706
    (stating that newly discovered
    evidence upsetting a guilty verdict does not implicate the
    constitutionality of a conviction, and declaring that the decision to
    grant a new trial based on new evidence instead rests on the
    “balance between the need for finality and the state’s interest in
    ensuring the fairness and accuracy of its proceedings”).
    ¶ 60   The affidavit based on the NAS Report, satisfies the first and
    second prongs of the Muniz test. The affidavit, applying the report
    to the facts of the case, provides relevant evidence that would be
    helpful to the jury, and the report’s publication followed Genrich’s
    convictions by almost two decades. 4
    4 We recognize that the NAS Report does not render false all
    toolmark identification evidence; however, we conclude that its
    determination that the lack of precisely defined processes and
    specified standards sufficiently undermines the reliability of
    toolmark identification evidence to warrant an evidentiary hearing.
    The NAS Report concluded that more rigorous scientific studies to
    understand the reliability and the repeatability of these methods is
    required to “make the process of individualization more
    precise . . . .” NAS Report, at 154. Similarly, we do not conclude
    that at a hearing on Genrich’s motion the trial court would or
    should determine that none of O’Neil’s testimony would be
    admissible in the event of a retrial. The extent to which O’Neil
    could testify would be determined by the trial court.
    30
    ¶ 61   Though Genrich’s petition satisfies the first two prongs of the
    test for a motion for a new trial, the third and fourth prongs
    encompass the crux of the dispute. The district court ruled that
    Genrich’s proffered evidence was merely impeaching. However, we
    conclude that the evidence offered bears similarity to the evidence
    alleged in Behn. Though it may serve to impeach O’Neil’s
    testimony, the proffered evidence, if believed, is of the sort that calls
    into question the reliability and credibility of a key witness.
    Genrich’s newly discovered evidence, as in Behn, may effectively
    neutralize the testimony of O’Neil, a key prosecution witness.
    ¶ 62   We also consider the test, announced in 
    Shreck, 22 P.3d at 82
    -
    83, to determine the admissibility of expert testimony. Specifically,
    we look to CRE 702 and the focus of the inquiry set forth in Shreck
    — whether the scientific principles underlying the expert’s
    testimony are reliable. See People v. Wilkerson, 
    114 P.3d 874
    , 877
    (Colo. 2005). The trial court may consider a multitude of factors in
    its consideration.5 Here, the evidence is akin to that proffered in
    5 The supreme court emphasized that a trial court may consider the
    nonexclusive list of factors set forth in Daubert v. Merrell Dow
    Pharmaceuticals, Inc., 
    509 U.S. 579
    , 597 (1993): (1) whether the
    technique can and has been tested; (2) whether the theory or
    31
    Han Tak Lee and Behn. Dr. Siegel’s affidavit applying the NAS
    Report offers peer-reviewed, scientifically accepted evidence that
    counters O’Neil’s testimony that furnished the principal evidence
    connecting Genrich to the pipe bombs at trial.
    ¶ 63   Finally, I conclude that Genrich’s allegations entitle him to an
    evidentiary hearing to establish the fourth element of Muniz — that
    his evidence is likely to bring about an acquittal if presented at a
    new trial. Without a developed record, we cannot hold that
    Genrich’s allegations, if true, are likely to bring about an acquittal,
    but we conclude that they dramatically increase his chances of
    obtaining an acquittal. Once again, this is for the trial court to
    determine following an evidentiary hearing.
    ¶ 64   Despite the People’s reliance on Bonan to contend that
    unapplied academic theories do not constitute evidence, let alone
    newly discovered evidence under Crim. P. 35(c), we conclude that
    Bonan is distinguishable. There, a division of our court determined
    technique has been subjected to peer review and publication; (3) the
    scientific technique’s known or potential rate of error, and the
    existence and maintenance of standards controlling the technique’s
    operation; and (4) whether the technique has been generally
    accepted. People v. Shreck, 
    22 P.3d 68
    , 77-78 (Colo. 2001).
    32
    that the defendant’s presentation of an academic theory, without
    having proffered an expert witness to testify as to the theory and
    relate it to the defendant’s case, was not newly discovered evidence
    warranting a new trial. Bonan, ¶ 
    31, 357 P.3d at 236
    . Dr. Siegel’s
    assertions in his affidavit apply the findings of the NAS Report to
    the circumstances of Genrich’s case, thus differentiating the
    present facts from those of Bonan.
    ¶ 65   Moreover, it is probable that, as in Han Tak Lee, O’Neil’s
    testimony tying Genrich’s tools to the marks on the pipe bombs
    served as the prosecution’s pillar of proof, and the other evidence
    presented at trial cannot, alone, sustain a conviction. In fact, the
    prosecutor’s heavy reliance on O’Neil’s toolmark identification
    during closing arguments demonstrates its significance to Genrich’s
    murder convictions.
    ¶ 66   Most of the other evidence against Genrich was arguably
    insufficient to establish his guilt. 6 That evidence — including the
    6 We disagree with Genrich’s statement that “the sole evidence
    connecting him to the deadly pipe bombs was the same type of
    faux-expert opinions discussed and condemned in the NAS report.”
    As noted in the text, some circumstantial evidence supported his
    convictions.
    33
    notes and tools seized from his home, the locations of the bombs,
    his proximity to the hardware store that carried the bombmaking
    components, his familiarity with the Anarchist Cookbook, and his
    late-night walks around town — placed Genrich as a suspect but
    may not have sufficiently proved his guilt beyond a reasonable
    doubt. Here, Dr. Siegel’s testimony could counter the prosecution’s
    expert witness testimony that provided the only direct connection
    between Genrich and the pipe bombs. Genrich’s Rule 35(c)
    allegations and proffered scientific evidence have the potential to
    weaken O’Neil’s testimony about individualization, which the trial
    court could conclude would likely lead to an acquittal, given the
    lack of other direct evidence presented at trial. However, we need
    not determine the precise effect the newly discovered evidence
    would have on a jury in a new trial for us to remand to the trial
    court for an evidentiary hearing.
    ¶ 67   Given the proffered expert testimony presented in Genrich’s
    Rule 35(c) motion, which, if true, would undermine the cornerstone
    of the prosecution’s case, we conclude that Genrich is entitled to an
    evidentiary hearing.
    34
    V. Genrich’s Due Process Argument
    ¶ 68   Because I conclude that Genrich is entitled to an evidentiary
    hearing under Crim. P. 35(c), I need not reach the question of
    whether the trial court deprived him of due process in denying his
    motion without a hearing.
    VI. Conclusion
    ¶ 69   Accordingly, the order is reversed, and we remand to the
    district court for an evidentiary hearing.
    JUDGE BERGER specially concurs.
    JUDGE TOW concurs in part and dissents in part.
    35
    JUDGE BERGER, specially concurring.
    ¶ 70   I agree that James Genrich is entitled to an evidentiary
    hearing on his Crim. P. 35(c) motion. But I cannot join Judge
    Taubman’s opinion in full. Therefore, I write separately to explain
    why Genrich is entitled to a hearing.
    ¶ 71   Genrich was convicted of multiple felonies, including murder,
    in connection with the detonations of three pipe bombs in Grand
    Junction, Colorado. Years later, he moved for a new trial under
    Crim. P. 35(c), arguing that scientific developments since his trial
    demonstrated that expert testimony against him, which concluded
    that Genrich’s tools were the only tools that could have made
    certain toolmarks left on the pipe bombs, was scientifically
    baseless.
    ¶ 72   The district court denied his motion without an evidentiary
    hearing. Relying on cases from other jurisdictions, the court held
    that the weight of authority supported the admissibility of the
    toolmark identification testimony at the time of Genrich’s trial, as
    well as today.
    ¶ 73   Because I conclude that, taking Genrich’s factual allegations
    as true, the record does not clearly establish that Genrich was not
    36
    entitled to a new trial, I agree with the reversal of the postconviction
    court’s denial of Genrich’s Crim. P. 35(c) motion and the remand for
    an evidentiary hearing.
    I.    Background
    ¶ 74   In April 1989, a pipe bomb was discovered in a motel parking
    lot in Grand Junction and disarmed by police. The ensuing
    investigation did not identify the bomb maker.
    ¶ 75   In 1991, three pipe bombs were detonated in Grand Junction
    –– the first in February, the second in April, and the third in June
    — killing two and injuring another. Investigators recovered pieces
    of the detonated pipe bombs and concluded that there were
    multiple similarities between the 1989 bomb and each of the 1991
    bombs, including that each detonator was powered by an electric
    battery and that each bomb’s wiring was soldered to the battery. 1
    ¶ 76   The investigators identified Genrich as a suspect based on a
    tip. Investigators contacted Genrich twice, and on both occasions
    he invited them into his apartment. During the second visit, with
    1
    Investigators in this case included both local police officers and
    agents of the Federal Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and
    Explosives (ATF).
    37
    Genrich’s permission, the investigators conducted a search and
    recovered a handwritten note in which Genrich expressed his
    frustration with his interactions with women, stating, among other
    things, “[i]f I end up killing some stuckup bitch don’t blame me,”
    and “[t]hese bitches still won’t even talk to me. If I can’t be happy, I
    might as well kill one.”
    ¶ 77   After this visit, investigators obtained and executed a search
    warrant for Genrich’s apartment. From the apartment,
    investigators took into evidence various tools and equipment,
    including a pair of needle-nose pliers, a pair of wire strippers, a pair
    of slip-joint pliers, assorted wires, a soldering iron, two Buss-type
    fuses of the type used in the 1989 bomb, and a home and auto
    electrical repair kit.
    ¶ 78   Genrich was arrested and charged with first degree murder,
    use of explosives to commit a felony, and other related charges.
    ¶ 79   At trial, the prosecution presented, among other evidence,
    expert testimony from John O’Neil, a firearms toolmark examiner
    for ATF. O’Neil testified that based on general characteristics of
    toolmarks left on components of the pipe bombs, Genrich’s tools
    were capable of making certain of those marks. O’Neil then went
    38
    further, testifying that based on his microscopic analysis and “to
    the exclusion of any other tool,” a pair of needle-nose pliers taken
    from Genrich’s apartment cut two of the wires used in the 1989
    bomb, a pair of wire strippers taken from Genrich’s apartment cut a
    wire used in the February 1991 bomb, and a pair of slip-joint pliers
    taken from Genrich’s apartment were applied to fragments of the
    end caps from the April 1991 and June 1991 bombs (the
    individualization testimony). Prompted by the prosecutor, O’Neil
    clarified that “to the exclusion of any other tool” meant that “no
    other . . . tool could have made those toolmarks.”
    ¶ 80   As the underlying basis for the individualization testimony,
    O’Neil stated that he had once examined two tools of the same make
    and model from the same assembly line and concluded that there
    were differences between the two. He also stated that in his many
    years as a toolmark examiner, he had never come across, or heard
    of, two tools being identical at a microscopic level so that they
    would leave the same marks.
    ¶ 81   The defense presented, among other evidence, expert
    testimony of Don Searls, a professor with a Ph.D. in statistics and
    expertise in experimental design, to rebut O’Neil’s testimony. Searls
    39
    testified that the toolmark analysis conducted by O’Neil did “not
    have a scientific basis,” and that, for the testing to be reliable,
    O’Neil would have needed to test multiple tools of the same make
    and wear without knowing which one belonged to Genrich, and
    have three other investigators perform the same blind test.
    ¶ 82   The jury convicted Genrich of two counts of first degree
    murder, multiple counts of use of an explosive or incendiary device
    in the commission of a felony, and third degree assault.
    ¶ 83   Genrich appealed on multiple grounds, and a division of this
    court affirmed, concluding that “experts in the use and analysis of
    tools have long been permitted to testify concerning the marks left
    by those instruments” and that Genrich’s concerns regarding the
    reliability of O’Neil’s testimony went to its weight rather than its
    admissibility. People v. Genrich, 
    928 P.2d 799
    , 802 (Colo. App.
    1996) (Genrich I). The supreme court denied certiorari.
    ¶ 84   In 2016, Genrich moved for a new trial under Crim. P. 35(c)
    and requested an evidentiary hearing. He alleged that, after his
    trial, the relevant scientific community had concluded that
    toolmark individualization testimony was scientifically baseless
    because the underlying science had not been sufficiently tested and
    40
    validated. To support this claim, Genrich attached an affidavit from
    Dr. Jay Siegel, a former professor of forensic science and one of the
    authors of a 2009 report issued by the National Research Council,
    Nat’l Research Council of the Nat’l Acads., Strengthening Forensic
    Science in the United States: A Path Forward (2009),
    https://perma.cc/8H3Q-S9SU (NAS Report), assessing the
    reliability of, among other forensic evidence, firearms and toolmark
    identification. In the affidavit, Dr. Siegel stated that a conclusion
    that a specific tool made a toolmark to the exclusion of all other
    tools was “unprovable” and had “no scientific support,” citing the
    NAS Report to support his claims.
    ¶ 85   Genrich argued that this new understanding of the reliability
    of toolmark individualization testimony (1) demonstrated that he
    was convicted on the basis of unreliable forensic evidence in
    violation of the United States and Colorado Constitutions’ Due
    Process Clauses and (2) constituted new evidence that required a
    new trial.
    ¶ 86   The district court denied the motion without a hearing, noting
    the division’s holding in Genrich I and concluding that multiple
    courts outside of Colorado had considered the admissibility of
    41
    toolmark and firearms identification analysis in light of the NAS
    Report and had admitted that evidence.
    ¶ 87    Genrich moved for reconsideration, which the postconviction
    court also denied. He then filed this appeal.
    II.    Analysis
    ¶ 88    Genrich argues that the court erred when it denied his motion
    for a new trial based on newly discovered evidence and due process
    violations without holding an evidentiary hearing. I agree.
    A.     Preliminary Matters
    1.     Genrich’s Challenges to Convictions for Felonies That Are Not
    Class 1 Felonies Are Time Barred
    ¶ 89    I agree with Judge Taubman’s conclusion and analysis that
    Genrich’s challenges to his convictions for felonies that are not
    class 1 felonies are time barred under section 16-5-402(1), C.R.S.
    2018.
    2.    Genrich’s Motion for a New Trial Can Be Dismissed Without an
    Evidentiary Hearing Only If the Record Clearly Establishes
    That He Is Not Entitled to Relief
    ¶ 90    It is important that we limit our focus to the question before
    us — whether the district court erred in denying Genrich’s motion
    without an evidentiary hearing — rather than considering whether
    42
    Genrich’s motion and affidavit, standing alone, entitle him to a new
    trial.
    ¶ 91       We review de novo a postconviction court’s decision denying a
    Crim. P. 35(c) motion without holding an evidentiary hearing.
    People v. Gardner, 
    250 P.3d 1262
    , 1266 (Colo. App. 2010). “A court
    may deny a defendant’s Crim. P. 35(c) motion without an
    evidentiary hearing ‘only where the motion, files, and record in the
    case clearly establish that the allegations presented in the
    defendant’s motion are without merit and do not warrant
    postconviction relief.’” People v. Chalchi-Sevilla, 
    2019 COA 75
    , ¶ 7
    (emphasis added) (quoting Ardolino v. People, 
    69 P.3d 73
    , 77 (Colo.
    2003)). “But where the defendant alleges sufficient facts that, if
    true, may warrant relief, the court must conduct an evidentiary
    hearing.” 
    Id. (emphasis added).
    ¶ 92       Thus, the threshold for Genrich to establish that he is entitled
    to an evidentiary hearing is lower than the threshold to establish
    that he is entitled to a new trial. I conclude he meets that lower bar
    with respect to both claims.
    43
    B.     Genrich Is Entitled to an Evidentiary Hearing Based on his
    Newly Discovered Evidence Claim
    ¶ 93        Expert testimony constitutes potent evidence. The imprimatur
    of the trial court in qualifying a witness to give expert testimony is
    powerful medicine and gives experts an “aura of trustworthiness
    and reliability” that few lay witnesses enjoy. People v. Cook, 
    197 P.3d 269
    , 277 (Colo. App. 2008). When later developments in
    science demonstrate convincingly that so-called expert opinions
    were nothing more than uninformed guesses or junk science,
    serious miscarriages of justice are possible.
    ¶ 94        Accordingly, to the extent that the partial dissent contends
    that advances in science can never be the basis for a new trial, I
    disagree. The difficult question, however, is when such scientific
    advances rise to the level that requires a court to reassess a prior
    conviction rendered on such faulty evidence. This case well
    illustrates the problem.
    ¶ 95        The partial dissent cites two cases in which courts rejected
    newly discovered evidence claims on the grounds that courts cannot
    retry cases every time a defendant is able to “find a credible expert
    with new research results,” Commonwealth v. LeFave, 
    714 N.E.2d 44
      805, 813 (Mass. 1999), or there is a new “‘advancement’ in scientific
    research,” State v. Gillispie, Nos. 22877, 22912, 
    2009 WL 2197052
    ,
    at *26 (Ohio Ct. App. July 24, 2009) (unpublished opinion). But
    those cases involved experts testifying based on new academic
    studies, of which there are presumably thousands produced each
    year.
    ¶ 96      The new evidence in this case is markedly different. It involves
    an alleged scientific consensus — evidenced by a federally
    mandated report representing the conclusions of dozens of experts
    in the field — and the application of that consensus to the evidence
    in this case by one of the report’s authors. While there will always
    be new studies and scientific advances, the new evidence alleged in
    this case goes many degrees further.
    ¶ 97      So while I agree with the partial dissent that not every advance
    in science will justify a new trial decades after the conviction (and
    most advances certainly will not), this is not one of those cases that
    can be dismissed so easily.
    45
    1.    The Evidence Alleged by Genrich Constitutes New Evidence for
    Purposes of Crim. P. 35(c)
    ¶ 98    The partial dissent would affirm the denial of Genrich’s motion
    without an evidentiary hearing because the NAS Report is not new
    evidence for purposes of Crim. P. 35(c). I agree with the partial
    dissent that, standing alone, the NAS Report does not constitute
    new evidence. However, that is not the evidence at issue here.
    ¶ 99    Crim. P. 35(c)(2)(V) states that a convicted defendant may
    apply for postconviction review if
    there exists evidence of material facts, not
    theretofore presented and heard, which, by the
    exercise of reasonable diligence, could not
    have been known to or learned by the
    defendant or his attorney prior to the
    submission of the issues to the court or jury,
    and which requires vacation of the conviction
    or sentence in the interest of justice.
    ¶ 100   The “material fact[]” alleged by Genrich is that there is a
    consensus in the relevant scientific community that
    individualization testimony, like O’Neil’s individualization
    testimony, is scientifically baseless. Crim. P. 35(c)(2)(V). The
    “evidence of [that] material fact[]” is an affidavit from one of the
    authors of the NAS Report, an indisputably well-qualified expert
    46
    witness, applying the NAS Report’s conclusions to the
    individualization testimony in Genrich’s case. 
    Id. ¶ 101
      That evidence is “new” because, although Genrich’s lawyers
    vigorously attacked the reliability of O’Neil’s individualization
    opinions and called their own expert (though not a toolmark expert)
    to attack the scientific basis and reliability of toolmark
    individualization opinions during trial in 1992, the alleged scientific
    consensus regarding the scientific validity of O’Neil’s
    individualization testimony did not exist at that time.
    ¶ 102   Under the circumstances presented, even skilled cross-
    examination pointing out purported weaknesses in the underlying
    basis for an expert opinion and counter expert opinions challenging
    the scientific validity of expert opinions are hardly the same as the
    opinions (evidence) of one of the authors of a congressionally
    mandated study addressing forensic evidence.
    ¶ 103   Contrary to the partial dissent’s and the Attorney General’s
    position, the evidence at issue is not an unapplied academic theory
    like that in People v. Bonan, 
    2014 COA 156
    . In that case, the
    division stated that “[a]cademic theories merely form the basis for
    interpreting evidence when they are applied to existing evidence.”
    47
    
    Id. at ¶
    31. “Unapplied, academic theories do not constitute
    evidence” that would support a motion for a new trial. 
    Id. The division
    concluded that four academic studies did not, in and of
    themselves, merit a new trial under Crim. P. 35(c) because Bonan
    “proffered no expert who ha[d] applied the theories he identified to
    the evidence presented at his trial.” 
    Id. at ¶
    33. I do not dispute
    Bonan’s holding.
    ¶ 104   Genrich, on the other hand, does not rely solely on the NAS
    Report; rather, he relies on the application of the NAS Report to the
    evidence in this case. He submitted an affidavit by one of the
    authors of the NAS Report specifically applying the conclusions of
    the NAS Report to the type of toolmark individualization testimony
    presented against Genrich. 2 In the affidavit, Dr. Siegel stated his
    understanding that an expert had testified that Genrich’s tools were
    the tools used on certain pieces of the pipe bombs to the exclusion
    of all other tools in the world. Dr. Siegel opined that this
    2
    I do not consider the second affidavit of Dr. Siegel, filed with
    Genrich’s motion for reconsideration, because it was not included
    with the Crim. P. 35(c) motion, and because motions for
    reconsideration of a denied Crim. P. 35(c) motion are not authorized
    by law. People v. Thomas, 
    195 P.3d 1162
    , 1164 (Colo. App. 2008).
    48
    conclusion is “unprovable” and has “no scientific support.” Thus,
    Dr. Siegel’s opinion is not an unapplied academic theory.
    2.    Standard for Prevailing on a Motion for a New Trial Based on
    Newly Discovered Evidence
    ¶ 105   The supreme court has, on multiple occasions, articulated
    what a defendant must show to warrant a new trial based on newly
    discovered evidence:
    (1)   “that the evidence was discovered after the trial;”
    (2)   “that defendant and his counsel exercised diligence to
    discover all possible evidence favorable to the defendant
    prior to and during the trial;”
    (3)   “that the newly discovered evidence is material to the
    issues involved, and not merely cumulative or
    impeaching; and”
    (4)   “that on retrial the newly discovered evidence would
    probably produce an acquittal.”
    
    Rodriguez, 914 P.2d at 292
    (quoting 
    Gutierrez, 622 P.2d at 559
    ).
    ¶ 106   Contrary to the partial dissent’s position, 
    Farrar, 208 P.3d at 706
    -07, did not modify this standard by adding a requirement that
    the newly discovered evidence be “affirmatively probative of the
    49
    defendant’s innocence.” Farrar described the third and fourth
    prongs of the existing standard as follows:
    We have also required that the newly
    discovered evidence must not only be relevant
    to material issues at trial but that it must also
    be of consequence to the outcome. Moreover,
    the newly discovered evidence must be of
    sufficient consequence for reasons other than
    its ability to impeach, or cast doubt upon, the
    evidence already presented at trial. It must be
    consequential in the sense of being
    affirmatively probative of the defendant’s
    innocence, whether that is accomplished by
    helping to demonstrate that someone else
    probably committed the crime; that the
    defendant probably could not have committed
    the crime; or even that the crime was probably
    not committed at all. We have described the
    required materiality of newly discovered
    evidence, or the extent to which it must be
    consequential to the outcome, in various
    terms, with varying degrees of precision, but at
    least since Digiallonardo, we have specified
    that it must be such that it would probably
    produce an acquittal.
    
    Id. (citations omitted).
    ¶ 107   A requirement that newly discovered evidence be affirmatively
    probative of the defendant’s innocence (an actual innocence
    standard) significantly narrows the types of evidence that merit a
    new trial. For instance, consider a scenario in which a defendant
    was convicted of robbery solely on the basis of a video showing him
    50
    committing the robbery, and, after the conviction, new evidence was
    discovered demonstrating that the video was entirely fake. That
    evidence would not meet the partial dissent’s affirmatively probative
    of innocence standard because, while it demonstrates that there
    was no basis for the conviction, it does not demonstrate that the
    defendant did not commit the crime.
    ¶ 108   There is no indication in Farrar that this was the court’s
    intent. The Farrar court did not state that it was modifying the
    existing standard; rather, it repeatedly cited (and applied)
    Rodriguez, Gutierrez, Scheidt, and Digiallonardo –– the cases setting
    out the existing standard that I (and Judge Taubman) rely on here.
    The Farrar court went on to discuss the existing standard’s
    materiality requirement in greater detail, but did not restate or
    apply the “affirmatively probative” language. The opinion does not
    mention it again.
    ¶ 109   Not only does Farrar cite the existing standard and then apply
    it without reference to an actual innocence standard, it explicitly
    recognizes that it imposes no heightened requirement that the
    charges against the defendant actually be false or unfounded.
    Farrar contrasts the test it applies with the test applied when a
    51
    defendant who has pleaded guilty moves for withdrawal of that plea
    based on newly discovered evidence. That test differs from the
    existing standard applied in Farrar only because it applies an actual
    innocence standard. In order for such a defendant to successfully
    withdraw a guilty plea, the defendant must demonstrate that
    (1) the newly discovered evidence was
    discovered after the entry of the plea, and, in
    the exercise of reasonable diligence by the
    defendant and his or her counsel, could not
    have been earlier discovered; (2) the charges
    that the People filed against the defendant, or
    the charge(s) to which the defendant pleaded
    guilty were actually false or unfounded; and (3)
    the newly discovered evidence would probably
    bring about a verdict of acquittal in a trial.
    People v. Schneider, 
    25 P.3d 755
    , 762 (Colo. 2001) (emphasis
    added).
    ¶ 110   The first and third prongs of the Schneider test parallel prongs
    of the Gutierrez test applied in Farrar. The distinguishing factor is
    Schneider’s requirement that the charges against the defendant who
    has pleaded guilty actually be false or unfounded. By recognizing
    that Schneider set out a new standard “applicable only to
    convictions resulting from guilty pleas,” the Farrar court established
    52
    that there is no similar requirement for defendants who, like
    Genrich, went to trial. 3
    ¶ 111   The partial dissent contends that the difference highlighted by
    Farrar between the two tests is instead that Schneider requires proof
    of actual innocence, whereas Farrar only requires that the evidence
    support actual innocence. I think this makes too fine a distinction.
    ¶ 112   Furthermore, although we are typically reluctant to rely on a
    dissenting opinion’s interpretation of a majority opinion, the dissent
    in Farrar is instructive because it makes the same distinction
    between the standard applied by the majority and the standard
    applicable in a case in which a defendant seeks to withdraw a guilty
    plea based on new evidence, recognizing that such a defendant
    bears a “higher burden.” 
    Farrar, 208 P.3d at 711
    (Bender, J.,
    dissenting) (quoting 
    Schneider, 25 P.3d at 761
    ).
    3
    Two later Colorado Court of Appeals cases cite the “affirmatively
    probative of . . . innocence” language from Farrar v. People, 
    208 P.3d 702
    , 707 (Colo. 2009). One, People v. Poindexter, 
    2013 COA 93
    , does not apply that language. The other, People v. Hopper, 
    284 P.3d 87
    , 92-93 (Colo. App. 2011), does so without needing to.
    Without considering whether the testimony at issue was
    affirmatively probative of innocence, that testimony was not
    material because it lacked any potential to undermine the
    conviction.
    53
    ¶ 113   In addition, facts and context matter. The Farrar court
    engaged in extensive discussion regarding the unique nature of
    victim recantations as the basis for newly discovered evidence
    claims, noting “the concerns inherent in the recantation of an
    alleged incest or child sexual assault victim,” “the suspicion with
    which recantations should be examined,” and “the court’s role in
    making an objective assessment of the recanting witness’s
    credibility.” 
    Farrar, 208 P.3d at 707
    . The Farrar court went on to
    describe in detail the materiality standard applicable in victim
    recantation cases. To the extent Farrar imposed a heightened
    materiality standard requiring an actual innocence claim, that
    heightened standard only applies in victim recantation cases.
    3.    The Record Does Not Clearly Establish That Genrich’s Newly
    Discovered Evidence Motion Would Fail
    ¶ 114   Taking Genrich’s factual allegations as true, the record does
    not “clearly establish” that Genrich has not met the standard set
    out in Rodriguez, Gutierrez, and earlier precedent, and therefore
    those allegations, if true, “may warrant relief.” Chalchi-Sevilla, ¶ 7.
    ¶ 115   First, the new evidence alleged was discovered after trial
    because the scientific consensus alleged by Genrich did not emerge
    54
    until years after his conviction. Second, for the same reason, no
    amount of due diligence on the part of Genrich and his counsel
    could have discovered this evidence before trial.
    ¶ 116   Third, the new evidence alleged is material to the issues
    involved because it would gut the strongest evidence supporting
    Genrich’s conviction –– the individualization testimony. It is not
    cumulative because, although Genrich did present the testimony of
    a statistician at his trial that O’Neil’s methods were not scientifically
    reliable, the testimony of a single defense expert with admittedly no
    experience in toolmarks is decidedly different in character and
    impact than a report of the National Research Council that
    represents the conclusions of dozens of experts in the field and the
    testimony of one of its authors applying those conclusions
    specifically to the evidence in this case.
    ¶ 117   The alleged new evidence does more than impeach O’Neil’s
    individualization testimony because it is relevant not only to
    credibility, but also reliability. Credibility determinations are a
    function of the jury. Hildebrand v. New Vista Homes II, LLC, 
    252 P.3d 1159
    , 1166 (Colo. App. 2010). Reliability determinations are
    at least initially a function of the court, and for expert testimony to
    55
    be admissible, the court must conclude the scientific principles
    underlying it are reliable under CRE 702. Kutzly v. People, 
    2019 CO 55
    , ¶¶ 10-12. This determination is separate and apart from
    any attempt by a party to impeach a witness. If the trial court
    determines under CRE 702 that the opinions are unreliable, the
    jury would not hear them at all.
    ¶ 118        Fourth, because, taking the allegations in Genrich’s motion as
    true, the alleged new evidence would likely result in the exclusion of
    O’Neil’s individualization testimony, it would significantly increase
    the probability of an acquittal.
    a.     Based on the Alleged New Evidence, the Individualization
    Testimony Would Not Be Admissible
    ¶ 119        To determine whether scientific or other expert testimony is
    admissible under CRE 702, the court should “focus on the
    reliability and relevance of the proffered evidence” and must make
    determinations as to “(1) the reliability of the scientific principles,
    (2) the qualifications of the witness, and (3) the usefulness of the
    testimony to the jury.” People v. Shreck, 
    22 P.3d 68
    , 70 (Colo.
    2001).
    56
    ¶ 120   First, accepting Genrich’s allegations as true, there were at the
    time of trial, and there are now, no scientific principles underlying
    O’Neil’s individualization testimony. Therefore, based on a
    straightforward application of CRE 702, O’Neil’s individualization
    opinions are not reliable, and that testimony is inadmissible.4
    ¶ 121   I disagree with the district court’s conclusion that “the weight
    of authority from other jurisdictions holds that toolmark
    identification testimony is reliable despite the criticisms stated in
    the NAS Report.” Each of the cases relied upon by the district court
    dealt with matching bullets and cartridge casings to a specific
    firearm. United States v. Adams, No. 15-CR-0106 (PJS/FLN), 
    2016 WL 424967
    (D. Minn. Feb. 3, 2016); United States v. Ashburn, 88 F.
    Supp. 3d 239, 243-44 (E.D.N.Y. 2015); United States v. Otero, 
    849 F. Supp. 2d 425
    , 438 (D.N.J. 2012), aff’d, 557 F. App’x 146 (3d Cir.
    2014); People v. Robinson, 
    2 N.E.3d 383
    , 395-402 (Ill. App. Ct.
    4
    I do not address, because it is not implicated by the evidence
    alleged by Genrich, whether some form of less conclusive testimony
    as to the relationship between the tools and the marks, such as, “I
    cannot conclude, based on this evidence, that these tools did not
    make these marks,” would be admissible.
    57
    2013); Commonwealth v. Pytou Heang, 
    942 N.E.2d 927
    , 937-38
    (Mass. 2011).
    ¶ 122   With respect to ballistics opinions, numerous courts have
    prohibited experts from testifying that bullets or cartridge casings
    were fired from a specific firearm to the exclusion of all other
    firearms in the world. E.g., 
    Ashburn, 88 F. Supp. 3d at 249
    ; United
    States v. Taylor, 
    663 F. Supp. 2d 1170
    , 1180 (D.N.M. 2009); United
    States v. Glynn, 
    578 F. Supp. 2d 567
    (S.D.N.Y. 2008); United States
    v. Monteiro, 
    407 F. Supp. 2d 351
    , 372 (D. Mass. 2006) (“Because an
    examiner’s bottom line opinion as to an identification is largely a
    subjective one, there is no reliable statistical or scientific
    methodology which will currently permit the expert to testify that it
    is a ‘match’ to an absolute certainty, or to an arbitrary degree of
    statistical certainty.”). The courts in those cases concluded that
    such testimony lacked scientific reliability.
    ¶ 123   More importantly, none of the cases relied on by the district
    court involved marks left by a hand tool, and the Attorney General
    has cited no cases since the release of the NAS Report involving
    marks left by a hand tool. Similarly, while Genrich I previously
    concluded that the analysis of marks left by hand tools was reliable
    58
    based on existing precedent from other jurisdictions, the division’s
    opinion predated the alleged scientific consensus damning toolmark
    individualization evidence.
    ¶ 124   Opinions from other jurisdictions concluding that firearms
    identification testimony is admissible bear little weight here because
    of the differences between toolmark identification analysis for
    firearms and hand tools. The analysis of toolmarks left on a surface
    by a hand tool is inherently more subjective than the analysis of
    toolmarks left by a gun on bullets or cartridge casings. While a gun
    fires in the same manner each time, there is significantly more
    variability in the application of a hand tool, including the angle at
    which it is applied, the portion of the blade used, and the force with
    which it is applied.
    ¶ 125   Examiners of toolmarks created by hand tools, as opposed to
    those examining bullets and cartridge casings, set out to recreate
    the particular way in which a tool was applied to a surface. While a
    gun need only be fired once to recreate the markings it would leave
    on a bullet, a toolmark examiner might need to make dozens of test
    cuts (as was the case here) in order to create a cut that the
    59
    examiner believes matches, introducing further layers of
    subjectivity and variability.
    ¶ 126   Continued reliance on precedents that predate the
    development of an alleged scientific consensus regarding the
    reliability of toolmark individualization testimony runs the risk of
    “grandfathering in irrationality.” United States v. Green, 405 F.
    Supp. 2d 104, 123-24 (D. Mass. 2005) (excluding expert testimony
    that a specific gun fired a bullet to “the exclusion of all other guns”).
    I decline the Attorney General’s invitation to do so.
    ¶ 127   Second, again accepting Genrich’s allegations as true, there
    are no expert qualifications that would render someone competent
    to testify that only one tool in the world could have made a certain
    mark. And finally, expert testimony that is unreliable has no
    probative value, and therefore would not be useful to a jury.
    b.    I Cannot Conclude That Genrich Would Be Convicted Without
    the Individualization Testimony
    ¶ 128   On the present record, it is impossible for us to determine
    whether exclusion of the toolmark individualization testimony
    would likely result in an acquittal. O’Neil testified over a period of
    several days, expressing multiple opinions. Some of those opinions
    60
    undoubtedly would withstand the attack made by Genrich, while
    the individualization opinions probably would not. Without a full
    analysis of all of O’Neil’s testimony (as well as the other toolmark
    expert who testified at trial), I cannot reach a conclusion whether
    the exclusion of some or all of this testimony likely would have
    resulted in an acquittal. This determination must be made, at least
    in the first instance, by the postconviction court after an evidentiary
    hearing.
    ¶ 129   The determination of whether newly discovered evidence would
    probably bring about an acquittal “should be premised on whether
    the new evidence, as developed in trial, when considered with all
    the other evidence, is such that a reasonable jury would probably
    conclude that there existed a reasonable doubt as to defendant’s
    guilt and thereby bring about an acquittal verdict.” 
    Rodriguez, 914 P.2d at 292
    .
    ¶ 130   Turning to the evidence here and excluding the
    individualization testimony, the prosecutor introduced the following
    evidence:
    (1)   there were numerous similarities between the four pipe
    bombs, including that each lacked a safety mechanism,
    61
    was a booby-trap device triggered by movement, was
    powered by a battery with wires soldered to it, used the
    same type of powder, and used Coin brand end caps;
    (2)   Genrich lived within easy walking distance of the
    locations where two of the three 1991 pipe bombs were
    detonated;
    (3)   Genrich had been seen near some of the areas where the
    1991 bombs were detonated;
    (4)   Genrich had threatened in the past to kill people out of
    frustrations with women and a perceived lack of respect;
    (5)   Genrich was familiar with the Anarchist Cookbook, which
    includes descriptions of how to make bombs;
    (6)   Genrich lived five blocks from, and was seen in, Surplus
    City, the only hardware store of twenty-five in the area to
    carry the type of Coin brand end caps used in the
    bombs; 5
    5
    Law enforcement agents who conducted the search testified to
    this. The Coin brand end caps recovered were not in evidence at
    trial.
    62
    (7)   two Buss-type fuses were recovered from Genrich’s
    apartment, and that is the type of fuse used in the 1989
    bomb;
    (8)   the bombs employed an electronic detonation system,
    and Genrich was familiar with electronics from
    coursework at DeVry Technical Trade Institute; and
    (9)   Genrich had tools capable of making the marks that
    appeared on certain of the wires and caps used in the
    bombs.6
    ¶ 131    Countering the prosecutor’s case, Genrich introduced evidence
    that
    (1)   he was in Phoenix working at a bookstore when the 1989
    bomb was placed; 7
    6
    I am concerned that Genrich’s attorney ignores virtually all this
    evidence. His contention that the only evidence of guilt was O’Neil’s
    opinion testimony is demonstrably untrue.
    7
    Evidence included testimony of Genrich’s coworkers in Phoenix at
    the time, a timesheet from his place of employment with
    handwritten entries from the bookstore’s employees, and a record of
    books returned to the publisher filled out by Genrich on April 14,
    1989, the date the first pipe bomb was discovered in Grand
    Junction.
    63
    (2)   he was at his mother and stepfather’s house when each
    of the 1991 bombs detonated;8
    (3)   there was no gunpowder residue found at Genrich’s
    apartment or his mother and stepfather’s house, and
    Genrich did not rent a storage unit in the area;
    (4)   two other toolmark examiners reviewed O’Neil’s work and
    were able to confirm only one of the matches identified by
    O’Neil, agreeing that the other purported matches were
    inconclusive;
    (5)   the highly hazardous nature of the bombs (detonated by
    movement without a safety switch) suggested that the
    maker had bombmaking expertise, which, beyond
    testimony that Genrich was familiar with the Anarchist
    Cookbook, there is no evidence Genrich had;
    8
    Both Genrich’s mother and stepfather testified to this and
    provided documentary evidence corroborating portions of their
    testimony.
    64
    (6)   the only end caps available at Surplus City from a period
    in 1990 through the time the bombs were detonated were
    not Coin brand;9
    (7)   there were multiple alternate suspects familiar with
    building explosives; and
    (8)   there was a white vehicle seen at each of the 1991
    bombings, and Genrich did not own or have access to a
    vehicle.
    ¶ 132      I conclude that in light of all the evidence, if O’Neil’s
    individualization testimony were excluded as the result of the new
    evidence alleged, the record does not clearly establish that Genrich
    would probably still be convicted.
    C.    Genrich Is Entitled to an Evidentiary Hearing on the Basis of
    His Due Process Claim
    ¶ 133      In his motion for a new trial, Genrich contended that the
    “jury’s verdicts were based on what we now know to be unreliable
    forensic evidence, in violation of both the Colorado and United
    9
    The Surplus City employee responsible for ordering this kind of
    part testified that the end caps were slow sellers, and therefore he
    knew from his records that the only end caps in stock from the time
    he ordered them in 1990 until after the bombings were the non-
    Coin brand type.
    65
    States Constitutions.” I conclude that Genrich has alleged facts
    that warrant an evidentiary hearing because the record does not
    “clearly establish,” Chalchi-Sevilla, ¶ 7 (quoting 
    Ardolino, 69 P.3d at 77
    ), the absence of a due process violation, and his allegations “may
    warrant relief,” 
    id. ¶ 134
      Crim. P. 35(c)(2)(I) authorizes postconviction review when “the
    conviction was obtained or sentence imposed in violation of the
    Constitution or laws of the United States or the constitution or laws
    of this state.”
    ¶ 135   Colorado appellate courts have not previously considered
    whether the admission of scientifically unreliable expert testimony
    results in a due process violation. However, in Han Tak Lee v.
    Houtzdale SCI, 
    798 F.3d 159
    , 166 (3d Cir. 2015) (quoting Han Tak
    Lee v. Glunt, 
    667 F.3d 397
    , 403 (3d Cir. 2012)), the Third Circuit
    Court of Appeals held that the admission of scientifically unreliable
    expert testimony would violate due process guarantees if the “expert
    testimony undermined the fundamental fairness of the entire trial
    because the probative value of [that] evidence, though relevant,
    [was] greatly outweighed by the prejudice to the accused from its
    66
    admission.” The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals adopted this
    approach in Gimenez v. Ochoa, 
    821 F.3d 1136
    (9th Cir. 2016).
    ¶ 136   Habeas relief for a due process violation is not available,
    however, if there was “ample other evidence of guilt.” 
    Glunt, 667 F.3d at 407
    n.13 (quoting Albrecht v. Horn, 
    485 F.3d 103
    , 126 (3d
    Cir. 2007)).
    ¶ 137   I conclude that Colorado law recognizes the due process
    claims recognized by both the Third and Ninth Circuits.
    ¶ 138   Given the significant potential for O’Neil’s expert
    individualization testimony to have swayed the jury to convict
    Genrich, I consider the elements of the Han Tak Lee test and
    conclude that Genrich’s due process claims warrant an evidentiary
    hearing.
    1.   Han Tak Lee
    ¶ 139   In Han Tak 
    Lee, 798 F.3d at 161
    , a jury convicted a father of
    first degree murder and arson after his daughter died in a house
    fire. At trial, the prosecutor relied heavily on “fire-science and gas-
    chromatography evidence” introduced through expert testimony.
    
    Id. at 161-62.
    Years later, the father filed a petition for habeas
    corpus arguing that his conviction violated due process because the
    67
    expert testimony had been based on what he claimed was
    unreliable science. 
    Id. at 162.
    ¶ 140   The federal district court denied the petition, but the Third
    Circuit reversed. 
    Id. The father
    then prevailed on remand following
    an evidentiary hearing. 
    Id. The district
    court concluded that “the
    admission of the fire expert testimony undermined the fundamental
    fairness of the entire trial” because the verdict “rest[ed] almost
    entirely upon scientific pillars which have now eroded.” 
    Id. (quoting Han
    Tak Lee v. Tennis, No. 4:08-CV-1972, 
    2014 WL 3894306
    , at
    *15-16 (M.D. Pa. June 13, 2014)).
    ¶ 141   The district court also concluded, despite the fact that the
    Commonwealth of Pennsylvania had introduced evidence that the
    father had strangled his daughter before the fire, had shown little
    grief after the incident, and had provided conflicting accounts of the
    fire, that the Commonwealth had failed to demonstrate that there
    was ample other evidence of guilt. 
    Id. The Third
    Circuit affirmed.
    2.    Due Process Violation
    ¶ 142   Assuming the truth of Genrich’s allegations in his Crim. P.
    35(c) motion, the prejudicial effect of the individualization testimony
    significantly outweighs its probative value. The individualization
    68
    testimony was allegedly scientifically baseless and therefore, as
    discussed above, had no probative value. It was highly prejudicial
    because (1) it was the strongest piece of evidence against Genrich;
    (2) it was offered by an expert witness whose opinion, as an expert
    witness for the State, bore an “aura of trustworthiness and
    reliability” not typically afforded that of lay witnesses, 
    Cook, 197 P.3d at 277
    ; and (3) the prosecutor relied heavily on the
    individualization testimony in opening statement and closing
    argument.
    3.   Ample Other Evidence of Guilt
    ¶ 143   As discussed above, I disagree with Genrich that the “sole
    evidentiary basis” for his conviction was the individualization
    testimony. However, whether there was ample other evidence of his
    guilt such that he would not be entitled to, at the very least, an
    evidentiary hearing is a closer question. As detailed above, both the
    prosecutor and Genrich introduced significant evidence apart from
    the individualization testimony.
    ¶ 144   The partial dissent takes the position that because there is
    some other evidence of Genrich’s guilt, his due process claim must
    be rejected. But that is not the test. There must be “ample other
    69
    evidence of guilt.” Han Tak 
    Lee, 798 F.3d at 166
    (emphasis added)
    (quoting 
    Glunt, 667 F.3d at 407
    n.13). Further, in order to reject
    the due process claim without an evidentiary hearing, the record
    must “clearly establish” that there is ample evidence of guilt.
    Chalchi-Sevilla, ¶ 7 (emphasis added) (quoting 
    Ardolino, 69 P.3d at 77
    ). I conclude it does not. The ultimate determination of whether
    ample other evidence of guilt was presented is for the postconviction
    court on remand after an evidentiary hearing.
    ¶ 145   Finally, the partial dissent seems to contend that Genrich has
    not alleged deficiencies in the expert testimony that would
    constitute a due process violation. I disagree because Genrich’s
    undeniable base contention is that the individualization testimony
    is scientifically unreliable, and multiple courts have concluded that
    the admission of such unreliable testimony can constitute a due
    process violation. 
    Gimenez, 821 F.3d at 1145
    ; Han Tak Lee, 798 at
    161. Such a due process claim, unlike a new evidence claim under
    the partial dissent’s reading of Farrar, “does not require a showing
    of innocence.” Han Tak 
    Lee, 798 F.3d at 162
    . Thus, Genrich’s due
    process claim entitles him to an evidentiary hearing.
    70
    III.    Conclusion
    ¶ 146   I vote to reverse the postconviction court’s order in part and to
    remand to that court for an evidentiary hearing on Genrich’s Crim.
    P. 35(c) motion as it pertains to his class 1 felony convictions.
    71
    JUDGE TOW, concurring in part and dissenting in part.
    ¶ 147   A quarter century after his conviction for multiple counts of
    murder and other crimes stemming from a bombing spree, James
    Genrich seeks a new trial, asserting newly discovered evidence. His
    motion for a new trial, filed in 2016, is based on a 2009 report of
    the National Academy of Sciences, Nat’l Research Council of the
    Nat’l Acads., Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States: A
    Path Forward (2009), https://perma.cc/8H3Q-S9SU (the NAS
    Report) — which concluded that much of the forensic science relied
    upon by law enforcement officials throughout the country lacked
    sufficient scientific validation studies — and a proffered expert
    witness’s opinion purporting to explain the impact of the NAS
    Report on Genrich’s case. The majority concludes that Genrich’s
    allegations are sufficient to warrant a hearing on his motion for a
    new trial on the class 1 felony charges. Because I believe that
    Genrich’s proffered evidence, as a matter of law, is neither new nor
    of sufficient consequence to the outcome to meet the threshold for
    obtaining a new trial, I respectfully dissent in part. 1
    1
    I agree with both of my colleagues that any claim for a new trial on
    the lesser felonies is time barred. § 16-5-402, C.R.S. 2018. See
    72
    I.   Background and Applicable Law
    ¶ 148   As a threshold matter, I agree with, and adopt without
    repeating, Judge Berger’s recitation of the factual and procedural
    background in this matter. Supra ¶¶ 75-84 (Berger, J., specially
    concurring). I also agree with both of my colleagues’ recitations of
    the four elements a defendant must show to obtain a new trial
    based on newly discovered evidence. Supra ¶ 41 (majority opinion);
    ¶ 106 (Berger, J., specially concurring). This, however, is where I
    part company with my colleagues, because in my view, Genrich has
    failed to sufficiently set forth allegations that entitle him to a
    hearing on his motion for new trial.
    II.   The NAS Report
    ¶ 149   The NAS Report was the result of a study commissioned in
    2005 by Congress, which had recognized the need for significant
    improvements in the nation’s forensic science system. NAS Report,
    at xix. Specifically, by statute, Congress “direct[ed] the Attorney
    General to provide [funds] to the National Academy of Sciences to
    People v. Stovall, 
    2012 COA 7M
    , ¶ 37. Thus, I concur in that
    portion of the decision.
    73
    create an independent Forensic Science Committee.” S. Rep. No.
    109-88, at 46 (2005); see Act of Nov. 22, 2005, Pub. L. No. 109-108,
    119 Stat. 2290. That committee then studied numerous forensic
    science disciplines, including biological evidence, analysis of
    controlled substances, friction ridge analysis, hair and fiber
    analysis, shoe print and tire track impressions, forensic odontology,
    bloodstain pattern analysis, and (relevant to this dispute) firearms
    and toolmark identification. After a lengthy study, the committee
    issued the NAS Report.
    ¶ 150   The report describes toolmarks as follows: “Toolmarks are
    generated when a hard object (tool) comes into contact with a
    relatively softer object. Such toolmarks may occur in the
    commission of a crime when an instrument such as a screwdriver,
    crowbar, or wire cutter is used . . . .” NAS Report, at 150.
    Toolmark identification focuses on both “class characteristics” and
    “individual characteristics” of tools. The former are “distinctive
    features that are shared by many items of the same type.” 
    Id. at 152.
    This would include things like “the width of the head of a
    screwdriver or the pattern of serrations in the blade of a knife . . .
    common to all screwdrivers or knives of a particular manufacturer
    74
    and/or model.” 
    Id. Individual characteristics,
    on the other hand,
    are “the fine microscopic markings and textures that are said to be
    unique to an individual tool.” 
    Id. ¶ 151
      The committee studied how the process of toolmark
    identification is undertaken and reported on the shortcomings in
    the interpretation of toolmarks. For example, the committee noted
    that it was “not able to specify how many points of similarity are
    necessary for a given level of confidence in the result.” 
    Id. at 154.
    Further, the committee expressed concern regarding the “heavy
    reliance on the subjective findings of examiners rather than on the
    rigorous quantification and analysis of sources of variability.” 
    Id. at 155.
    Ultimately, the committee concluded that “[s]ufficient studies
    have not been done to understand the reliability and repeatability of
    the methods.” 
    Id. at 154.
    ¶ 152   Notably, however, the committee did not opine that the
    discipline could never or would never be established as reliable.
    Indeed, the committee acknowledged that “class characteristics are
    helpful in narrowing the pool of tools that may have left a distinctive
    mark,” and that “[i]ndividual patterns from manufacture or from
    wear might, in some cases, be distinctive enough to suggest one
    75
    particular source.” 
    Id. Rather, the
    NAS Report merely concluded
    that “additional studies should be performed to make the process of
    individualization more precise and repeatable.” 
    Id. III. The
    Motion for a New Trial
    ¶ 153   Genrich argues that the NAS Report is new evidence, was not
    obtainable prior to his trial, is material and not merely cumulative
    or impeaching, and would probably produce an acquittal. In my
    view, even taking his factual allegations as true, Genrich’s motion
    fails to establish that he is entitled to a new trial, or even to an
    evidentiary hearing.
    A. The NAS Report Is Not New Evidence
    ¶ 154   Implicit in the first two prongs of the test — that the evidence
    was discovered after trial, and not before trial despite the exercise of
    due diligence by a defendant and his or her counsel — is the
    requirement that the evidence must actually be new. The
    information in the NAS Report is neither evidence nor new.
    ¶ 155   As a division of this court has previously held in another
    context, “[a]cademic theories merely form the basis for interpreting
    evidence when they are applied to existing evidence.” People v.
    Bonan, 
    2014 COA 156
    , ¶ 31. “Unapplied, academic theories do not
    76
    constitute evidence.” 
    Id. Genrich has
    not proffered any testimony
    or evidence that would apply the purportedly new scientific
    information in the NAS Report to the circumstances of this case.
    Instead, he proffers an affidavit from Jay Siegel (a member of the
    committee that wrote the 2009 NAS Report), in which Siegel merely
    recites the conclusion of the report: that the forensic science of
    toolmark identification “has not been sufficiently studied nor
    scientifically validated.” At no point in the affidavit does Siegel
    opine that Genrich’s tools did not make the marks on the bomb
    parts. 2
    ¶ 156   The affidavit attached to Genrich’s motion for new trial is not
    evidence. See Commonwealth v. LeFave, 
    714 N.E.2d 805
    , 813
    (Mass. 1999) (holding that to treat expert testimony relying on
    studies released after trial as evidence “would provide convicted
    defendants with a new trial whenever they could find a credible
    2
    Though Genrich submitted a supplemental affidavit to the trial
    court as part of a motion to reconsider, neither the trial court nor
    this court is required to consider information first presented in a
    motion to reconsider. See Fox v. Alfini, 
    2018 CO 94
    , ¶ 36. In fact,
    where, as here, the motion to reconsider merely advanced the same
    arguments in the original postconviction petition, it is essentially a
    successive petition and will not be considered. See People v.
    Thomas, 
    195 P.3d 1162
    , 1165 (Colo. App. 2008).
    77
    expert with new research results supporting claims that the
    defendant made or could have made at trial”); State v. Gillispie, Nos.
    22877, 22912, 
    2009 WL 2197052
    , at *26 (Ohio Ct. App. July 24,
    2009) (unpublished opinion) (“A case cannot be retried based on
    every ‘advancement’ in scientific research.”). Notably, both LaFave
    and Gillespie were cited with approval in Bonan, ¶ 35.
    ¶ 157   Nor is the information new. Again, the gravamen of the report
    is that “[s]ufficient studies have not been done to understand the
    reliability and repeatability of the methods.” NAS Report, at 154.
    In other words, the report concludes that the science of toolmark
    identification lacks a sufficient scientific method and basis. In his
    motion for new trial and the accompanying affidavit, Genrich and
    his expert, Siegel, parrot this conclusion, arguing that the forensic
    science of toolmark identification “has not been sufficiently studied
    nor scientifically validated.”
    ¶ 158   Significantly, the jury heard this exact evidence during
    Genrich’s trial. Genrich presented an expert witness in scientific
    methods. The defense expert pointed out that there were no data
    banks supporting the assumption that each tool is unique, there
    had been no experiments conducted to determine the probability of
    78
    misidentification of a tool, the toolmark examiner’s opinion was
    subjective, the toolmark analysis process has no scientific basis,
    and the fact that the test was not conducted in a blind fashion
    exposed the conclusion to confirmation bias by the examiner. The
    prosecution offered no evidence to the contrary.
    ¶ 159   Because Genrich’s motion offers only unapplied academic
    theories, and in any event the jury heard and had the opportunity
    to consider essentially the same information as that presented in
    the NAS Report, Genrich has not presented any new evidence.
    Thus, because he has failed to sufficiently allege that new evidence
    exists, he cannot be entitled to a hearing on whether this
    information would warrant a new trial.
    ¶ 160   Indeed, for the same reason, he has failed to sufficiently allege
    facts that, if true, would establish the second prong. In one
    iteration of the second prong, our supreme court has stated that
    the evidence must be “unknown to the defendant and his counsel in
    time to be meaningfully confronted at trial and unknowable through
    the exercise of due diligence.” Farrar v. People, 
    208 P.3d 702
    , 706
    (Colo. 2009). Genrich’s purportedly new evidence was not only
    knowable, but known to Genrich’s counsel, who developed and
    79
    presented it to the jury in a meaningful confrontation of the
    prosecution’s expert. Thus, again, even taking the allegations as
    true, the motion fails to set forth sufficient grounds to warrant a
    hearing.
    B. The Evidence Is Merely Cumulative and Impeaching
    ¶ 161   Even if the NAS Report constitutes new evidence, Genrich
    must show that it is “material to the issues involved, and not merely
    cumulative or impeaching.” People v. Rodriguez, 
    914 P.2d 230
    , 292
    (Colo. 1996).
    1. Farrar and the Definition of Material
    ¶ 162   In Farrar, the supreme court explained that to be material,
    new evidence “must be of sufficient consequence for reasons other
    than its ability to impeach, or cast doubt upon, the evidence
    already presented at trial.” 
    Farrar, 208 P.3d at 707
    . To be
    consequential, the court continued, the evidence must be
    “affirmatively probative of the defendant’s innocence, whether that
    is accomplished by helping to demonstrate that someone else
    probably committed the crime; that the defendant probably could
    not have committed the crime; or even that the crime was probably
    not committed at all.” 
    Id. 80 ¶
    163   Both of my colleagues conclude that Farrar has no application
    here. Specifically, they conclude that though the supreme court
    announced this language, it did not apply it. I respectfully disagree.
    ¶ 164   After providing this guidance on what materiality means in the
    context of new evidence, the court reiterated, “we have for some
    time emphasized that a defendant can be entitled to a new trial as
    the result of newly discovered evidence only if that evidence would
    be likely to result in acquittal for reasons beyond simply
    impeaching the earlier conviction.” 
    Id. In the
    context of that case,
    which involved a witness recantation, the court stated that a new
    trial would not be warranted “[u]nless the victim’s testimony that
    the defendant did not commit the sexual assault will probably be
    believed.” 
    Id. at 708
    (emphasis added). Clearly, this is an
    invocation of the “affirmatively probative of innocence” test the
    court had announced appearing just moments before. The court
    further stated that the district court “properly evaluated the effect of
    the victim’s recantation apart from its impeachment value.” 
    Id. at 709.
    And finally, the court reiterated that a new trial may only be
    granted “upon the discovery of meaningfully contradictory evidence.”
    
    Id. (emphasis added).
    There is simply no reason to believe that
    81
    “meaningfully contradictory” was meant to be read in the context of
    the test for “sufficient consequence” or materiality appearing just
    three pages earlier in the court’s decision.
    ¶ 165   Judge Berger seeks to distinguish Farrar on two additional
    grounds, both of which I disagree with. First, he posits that Farrar
    itself disavows any effort to impose a heightened standard when it
    discusses the test for withdrawing a guilty plea based on new
    evidence set forth in People v. Schneider, 
    25 P.3d 755
    (Colo. 2001).
    Supra ¶¶ 110-111 (Berger, J., specially concurring). Judge Berger
    states that the existing standard for obtaining a new trial differs
    from the test for withdrawal of a guilty plea based on new evidence
    only because the latter requires proof that the charges be “actually
    false or unfounded.” 
    Schneider, 25 P.3d at 762
    . However, I do not
    believe the Farrar standard is an “actual innocence” test. To
    require a defendant to prove — as a threshold to being permitted to
    withdraw a plea — that the charges were actually false is far
    different than to require a defendant to prove — as a threshold for
    obtaining a new trial — that evidence is “affirmatively probative of
    innocence.” The latter only requires a threshold showing that the
    charges might actually be false or unfounded. Thus, Schneider does
    82
    not necessitate any limitation on the clarification of the materiality
    test announced in Farrar.
    ¶ 166   Next, Judge Berger asserts that to the extent Farrar imposes a
    new test for materiality, that test is limited to recantations. I do not
    believe this is a fair reading of the case.
    ¶ 167   When the supreme court set forth its clarification of what is
    required for new evidence to be consequential, it had not yet turned
    to the analysis of the specific facts of the case; rather, it was setting
    forth the applicable law. 
    Farrar, 208 P.3d at 706
    -07. In doing so,
    the court discussed the historical treatment of the materiality prong
    of the test by referring to two cases, neither of which is a
    recantation case. 
    Id. (first citing
    People v. Scheidt, 
    187 Colo. 20
    , 22,
    
    528 P.2d 232
    , 233 (1974); then citing Digiallonardo v. People, 
    175 Colo. 560
    , 567, 
    488 P.2d 1109
    , 1113 (1971)).
    ¶ 168   The new evidence in Scheidt involved an allegation that before
    the defendant’s trial, the prosecution possessed but did not disclose
    a statement by a different person confessing to the killing for which
    the defendant had been 
    convicted. 187 Colo. at 21
    , 528 P.2d at
    233. No witness recanted any testimony.
    83
    ¶ 169   The new evidence in Digiallonardo involved a post-trial
    statement from the victim of a robbery by two men he had just been
    introduced to, in which the victim stated that at some point after
    the trial, he had seen the defendant and another man at a social
    event, and “in viewing the two men he now feels that his absolute
    identification of defendant . . . is doubtful and that his testimony
    may have been 
    mistaken.” 175 Colo. at 567
    , 488 P.2d at 1113.
    While this statement might be classified as a recantation, even the
    court was hesitant to do so, stating that the witness “merely states
    that he may have been mistaken.” 
    Id. at 569,
    488 P.2d at 1114.
    Such a statement does not amount to the witness withdrawing or
    renunciating his testimony. See Black’s Law Dictionary 1521 (11th
    ed. 2019) (defining recant).3
    ¶ 170   Finally, after setting forth the law in this area, the supreme
    court in Farrar noted that “[n]ewly discovered evidence in this sense
    can, and often does, arise from the recantation of a witness who
    testified at trial.” 
    Farrar, 208 P.3d at 707
    (emphasis added). The
    court further explained that “some jurisdictions treat recantations
    3
    Interestingly, in both cases, the supreme court affirmed the trial
    court’s denial of a new trial.
    84
    as a distinct ground for ordering a new trial, subject to different
    standards of proof altogether.” 
    Id. However, the
    court stated that it
    has “never singled out recantation for this kind of special
    treatment.” 
    Id. In short,
    nothing in the court’s discussion suggests
    that recantation is to be treated differently than any other type of
    new evidence.
    2. The Materiality of the NAS Report
    ¶ 171   Nothing in the NAS Report demonstrates, or even suggests,
    that Genrich did not commit the crimes, or that someone else
    probably did. 4 The evidence demonstrates nothing more than that,
    after Genrich’s trial, a consensus has developed in a significant
    portion of the scientific community that agrees with Genrich’s
    expert’s view of the state and quality of the forensic science of
    toolmark identification. Similarly, nowhere in Siegel’s original
    affidavit does he state that the examiner’s opinion in this case was
    definitively wrong. Rather, Siegel only opines that there is no
    scientific support for the examiner’s opinion — a point
    unequivocally made to the jury by Genrich’s trial expert.
    4
    Of course, there can be no argument in this case that the crime
    did not actually occur.
    85
    ¶ 172   In other words, the NAS Report shows nothing more than that
    additional experts would support Genrich’s trial expert and refute
    the prosecution’s. Therefore, the information in the report is not
    material — i.e., not sufficiently consequential; rather, the evidence
    is merely cumulative of Genrich’s trial expert’s testimony and serves
    only to impeach the prosecution’s expert. Genrich’s allegations,
    taken as true, fail to establish the third prong of the test as well.
    Thus, because he would not be entitled to relief, he is not entitled to
    a hearing.
    C.    The Record Clearly Demonstrates that the Evidence
    Would Probably Not Produce an Acquittal
    ¶ 173   Finally, again assuming the NAS Report qualifies as new
    evidence, the record as a whole clearly demonstrates that the
    evidence would probably not produce an acquittal. First, unlike my
    colleagues, I am not convinced that the NAS Report would
    necessarily exclude much, if any, of the toolmark examiner’s
    testimony, the vast majority of which was informed by his own
    extensive personal experience from sixteen years examining
    toolmarks. See Kutzly v. People, 
    2019 CO 55
    , ¶ 17 (holding that
    experience-based expert testimony need not always be based on
    86
    statistical analysis). Indeed, Judge Harry Edwards, the co-chair of
    the committee that authored the NAS Report, has made it clear that
    “nothing in the Report was intended to answer the ‘question
    whether forensic evidence in a particular case is admissible under
    applicable law.’” United States v. Rose, 
    672 F. Supp. 2d 723
    , 725
    (D. Md. 2009) (quoting Hon. Harry T. Edwards, Statement before
    U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee (Mar. 18, 2009)).
    ¶ 174   Yet, even if the individualization testimony were excluded, the
    jury would nevertheless have heard testimony from a very
    experienced toolmark examiner that the toolmarks on the bomb
    parts were consistent with marks made by Genrich’s tools. (It bears
    repeating that nothing in the NAS Report or Genrich’s motion
    refutes the accuracy of that testimony.) Combined with the weighty
    circumstantial evidence of Genrich’s guilt, the probability that the
    individualization testimony was the linchpin of the jury’s
    deliberation appears quite low.5
    5
    I note that Genrich has not identified any case in which the 2009
    NAS Report was determined to be sufficiently material new evidence
    regarding toolmark analysis that a new trial was ordered. And,
    despite a nationwide search, I have discovered no such case.
    87
    IV.   Genrich’s Due Process Claim
    ¶ 175   Genrich also claims that permitting a conviction to stand
    despite the fact that some of the scientific testimony supporting
    that conviction has fallen out of favor would run afoul of his due
    process rights. While I do not necessarily disagree with his
    premise, I do not believe he has sufficiently pleaded facts to warrant
    a hearing on the issue.
    ¶ 176   Some federal courts have considered a defendant’s due
    process claim based on subsequently debunked scientific
    testimony.
    ¶ 177   In Han Tak Lee v. Houtzdale SCI, 
    798 F.3d 159
    (3d Cir. 2015),
    the defendant was convicted of murder and arson, based in part on
    the testimony of an expert in fire science. 
    Id. at 161.
    During a
    postconviction hearing, the defendant presented “evidence about
    developments in the field of fire science that . . . ‘provided ample
    reason to question the reliability of the arson investigation.’” 
    Id. (quoting Han
    Tak Lee v. Glunt, 
    667 F.3d 397
    , 401 (3d Cir. 2012)).
    The defendant then filed a habeas corpus petition, claiming that his
    conviction violated due process because it was based on inaccurate
    and unreliable evidence. 
    Id. at 162.
    The Third Circuit Court of
    88
    Appeals held that, to prevail, the defendant “must show that the
    admission of the fire expert testimony undermined the fundamental
    fairness of the entire trial because the probative value of [the fire
    expert] evidence, though relevant, is greatly outweighed by the
    prejudice to the accused from its admission.” 
    Id. (quoting Glunt,
    667 F.3d at 403). However, habeas relief is not available where
    there is “ample other evidence of guilt.” Id. (quoting 
    Glunt, 667 F.3d at 407
    n.13).
    ¶ 178   In Gimenez v. Ochoa, 
    821 F.3d 1136
    (9th Cir. 2016), the Ninth
    Circuit Court of Appeals reviewed a challenge to a child abuse
    conviction based on testimony regarding the connection between a
    specific triad of injuries (subdural hematoma, brain swelling, and
    retinal hemorrhage) and a diagnosis of Shaken Baby Syndrome
    (SBS). 
    Id. at 1143.
    The defendant pursued habeas relief, asserting
    that numerous scientific articles published following his conviction
    had altered the reliance of the forensic pathology community on
    this triad, and that now the medical community requires some
    evidence of impact injuries before diagnosing SBS. 
    Id. The Ninth
    Circuit Court of Appeals adopted the test adopted by the Third
    89
    Circuit in Han Tak Lee. 
    Id. at 1145.
    However, the court denied
    habeas relief based on the strength of the remaining evidence. 
    Id. ¶ 179
      I note that neither the Colorado Supreme Court nor the Tenth
    Circuit Court of Appeals has adopted the Han Tak Lee test.
    However, even if I assume that a due process challenge to a
    conviction based on subsequently discredited science is cognizable
    in theory, such a claim would not be applicable here.
    ¶ 180   The flaw in Genrich’s proposition is not in its premise, but in
    the applicability of that premise to his situation. He formulates the
    issue in his opening brief: “Is Due Process violated where the sole
    evidentiary basis for conviction is expert testimony that is later
    revealed to be patently false and contrary to science?” (Emphasis
    added.) As both Judge Berger and I have pointed out, the
    individualization testimony at trial is far from the sole evidentiary
    basis for the conviction. Supra ¶ 131 & n.6 (Berger, J., specially
    concurring). While the weight and sufficiency of the circumstantial
    evidence of Genrich’s guilt might be subject to debate, its existence
    is not, notwithstanding Genrich’s counsels’ refusal to acknowledge
    it. Further, as I have discussed, nothing in either the NAS Report
    or the Siegel affidavit supports the allegation that the toolmark
    90
    analysis testified to at trial is either “patently false” or “contrary to
    science.” Again, the only conclusion of the report is that more
    testing is needed to ensure reliability.
    ¶ 181   Again, I do not reject the premise underlying Han Tak Lee —
    that a conviction that rests exclusively, or even primarily, on
    scientific testimony that is later determined to be demonstrably
    false cannot stand. This, however, is not that case. Even if the Han
    Tak Lee test were applicable, Genrich fails to satisfy it, or even
    sufficiently invoke it to be entitled to a hearing. He has not alleged
    facts that would demonstrate that the admission of the
    individualization testimony at trial undermined the fundamental
    fairness of the trial, particularly in light of (1) the fact that his
    expert witness exposed all of the same flaws in the testing that the
    NAS Report later identified and (2) the strength of the remaining
    evidence against him.
    V. Conclusion
    ¶ 182   I concur in the decision affirming the district court’s denial of
    the request for a new trial on the non-class-1 felony charges. But
    because — taking as true all of Genrich’s factual allegations — I do
    91
    not believe he has brought forth new material evidence that would
    likely result in acquittal, I respectfully dissent from the decision to
    require the district court to conduct a hearing on Genrich’s motion
    for new trial.
    92