People v. Brown , 90 N.E.3d 604 ( 2017 )


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    2017 IL App (1st) 150132
    Fourth Division
    November 16, 2017
    No. 1-15-0132
    THE PEOPLE OF THE STATE OF ILLINOIS,                            )   Appeal from the
    )   Circuit Court of
    Plaintiff-Appellee,                                   )   Cook County.
    )
    v.                                                         )   No. 01 CR 15671
    )
    PERNELL BROWN,                                                  )   Honorable
    )   Jorge Luis Alonso,
    Defendant-Appellant.                                  )   Judge, presiding.
    JUSTICE MCBRIDE delivered the judgment of the court, with opinion.
    Justice Burke concurred in the judgment and opinion.
    Justice Ellis dissented, with opinion.
    OPINION
    ¶1        Petitioner, Pernell Brown, who was found guilty of first degree murder and sentenced to
    50 years’ imprisonment, appeals from the Cook County circuit court’s order denying him leave
    to file a successive pro se postconviction petition under the Post-Conviction Hearing Act (Act)
    (725 ILCS 5/122-1 et seq. (West 2014)). He maintains that he set forth a colorable claim of
    actual innocence based on affidavits that he argues identify someone else as the shooter. Because
    the affidavits do not raise the probability that it is more likely than not that no reasonable juror
    would have found petitioner guilty, we affirm.
    ¶2        In denying petitioner leave to file his successive postconviction petition, the trial court
    summarized the relevant trial evidence, which we repeat here due to the nature of petitioner’s
    claims.
    No. 1-15-0132
    ¶3      Petitioner’s conviction stems from the January 16, 2001, shooting of Robert Byrd, known
    as “Rah-Rah,” who was killed in the Super Sub Shop on North Cicero Avenue in Chicago,
    Illinois.
    ¶4      At trial before Judge Lawrence Fox, Walter Thomass 1 testified that he was 48 years old
    and lived in the neighborhood where the offense occurred. On the evening of the shooting,
    Thomass went to the sub shop with some friends. About 1:15 a.m., Thomass was standing by the
    glass front door of the sub shop when he observed a small red Buick pull up in front of the shop.
    There were two people in the car. The driver got out, reached under the driver’s seat, and pulled
    out a gun. He walked into the sub shop and fired the gun twice. Thomass fled the shop, then
    heard several more shots after he left. Thomass testified that petitioner was the driver and
    shooter. He stated that he recognized petitioner from the neighborhood and had seen him
    approximately 10 or 15 times before the shooting. He also testified that he identified petitioner as
    the driver and shooter in a photo array on the day after the shooting and in a subsequent police
    lineup on May 26, 2001. Thomass also testified that he accompanied detectives, who walked him
    through a parking garage, to see if he could identify the vehicle that was used in the offense.
    Thomass spotted the vehicle and identified it for the detectives.
    ¶5      Venice Blackburn testified that she was 47 years old, that she had four children who were
    between 15 and 28 years old, and that she lived in the area where the shooting occurred.
    Blackburn was with some friends at the sub shop shortly before 1 a.m. on January 16, 2001, and
    she was still there, laughing and joking, when someone came in shooting. She testified that, after
    being shot three or four times, Byrd fell to the floor and reached toward Blackburn’s leg.
    1
    Throughout the record, the last name of this witness is spelled either Thomas or Thomass. We
    will refer to this witness as “Thomass” with the spelling used by the witness during his testimony.
    -2­
    No. 1-15-0132
    Blackburn testified that petitioner was the shooter. She also testified that she had previously
    identified petitioner as the shooter in a photo array later in the morning of January 16, 2001.
    ¶6       Blackburn testified that she had lived in the neighborhood where the shooting occurred
    for 13 or 14 years and that she had seen petitioner in the neighborhood for the same length of
    time. Although Blackburn testified that she did not personally know petitioner, she also stated
    that he used to play basketball with her children.
    ¶7       Both Thomass and Blackburn admitted to using narcotics on the day of the shooting.
    Blackburn stated that she was still high at the time of the shooting but that neither her memory
    nor perception were impaired. Blackburn testified that she had two drug convictions, for which
    she received a sentence of probation. Blackburn completed probation satisfactorily, and at the
    time of her testimony, she had participated in treatment and had not used drugs in over two
    years.
    ¶8       Cory Gilmore testified that he grew up with individuals who went by the nicknames of
    “Rah-Rah” and “Von,” whom he identified as petitioner. The prosecutor asked Gilmore if he
    recalled speaking with the police on February 7, 2001, and Gilmore responded that he did not
    remember because his drug use impaired his memory. Over petitioner’s objection, the trial court
    allowed the prosecutor to present Gilmore’s handwritten statement given to an assistant State’s
    Attorney (ASA).
    ¶9       In the statement, Gilmore stated he had known Byrd his whole life. On January 16, 2001,
    Gilmore was at the Super Sub Shop with Robert Curry when Byrd and two other individuals
    arrived. He went outside, and petitioner pulled up in a two-door maroon or red Regal. Petitioner
    was by himself. Gilmore talked to petitioner at the car window. Petitioner did not say anything
    about Byrd, and Gilmore did not see a gun at that time. Petitioner then pulled off alone in the car.
    -3­
    No. 1-15-0132
    Gilmore then went back inside the sub shop and got Curry so they could leave. Gilmore said they
    went to a strip club and waited for some other people. After waiting 15 minutes, Gilmore called
    his friend to see where he was. Gilmore was told by his friend to come back to the sub shop.
    Gilmore and Curry returned to the sub shop and saw Byrd on the ground with police around him.
    He never saw who shot Byrd.
    ¶ 10   Robert Curry testified that on January 16, 2001, he was in the vicinity of 611 North
    Cicero Avenue with Gilmore. He went into the sub shop and saw Byrd but left because the place
    was too crowded. He left with Gilmore. They went around the neighborhood and came back.
    When they returned, Curry saw an ambulance, and they tried to find out what happened.
    ¶ 11   Kevin Tenard identified petitioner at trial and testified that he knew him by the nickname
    “Von.” Tenard stated that on January 16, 2001, at approximately 1:30 a.m., he was in the vicinity
    of 4817 West Ferdinand Street, which was the home of Iesha Rials, the mother of petitioner’s
    child. Tenard was there with his brother and Rials’s cousin. At that time, petitioner drove up in a
    red car. Petitioner gave Tenard the keys and asked him to give the keys to Rials. Tenard saw
    another person with petitioner, but he did not know who he was. Petitioner and the other person
    then got into another car and left.
    ¶ 12   Detective Michael Delassandro, who investigated Byrd’s shooting, testified that Thomass
    and Blackburn identified petitioner as the shooter in photo arrays on the morning after the
    shooting. Detective Delassandro also met with Iesha Rials at 4817 West Ferdinand Street to get
    Rials’s car, a 1989 red Buick. She took him to the garage behind the building at that address, and
    Detective Delassandro drove the vehicle to area 4. Detective Delassandro asked Thomass and
    Gilmore to view the vehicle. Both witnesses identified the vehicle as the one they saw petitioner
    driving. On February 8, 2001, Detective Delassandro met with Tenard, who told him that he was
    -4­
    No. 1-15-0132
    sitting on the porch at 4718 West Ferdinand Street at approximately 1 a.m. on January 16, 2001.
    Tenard said that he observed a red Buick driven by petitioner, which he parked in front of that
    address. Petitioner waved Tenard over and gave Tenard the car keys to give to Rials. Petitioner
    then got into a car that had pulled up behind the Buick and left.
    ¶ 13   In his defense, petitioner attempted to show that his deceased brother, David Payton, was
    the actual shooter. Petitioner’s mother, Tawana Brown, testified that she had two prior
    convictions for drug offenses, for which she received four years’ imprisonment for each. Brown
    testified that petitioner was living in Indianapolis at the time of the shooting. She further testified
    that Payton had once identified himself as petitioner while seeking medical treatment and that
    Payton had been living in Chicago at the time of the shooting. She did not, however, testify that
    petitioner and Payton looked alike. Elaine Jefferson, a friend of petitioner’s mother, testified that
    petitioner was staying with her in Indianapolis on the night of the shooting.
    ¶ 14   Petitioner’s trial counsel recalled Blackburn, and counsel presented her with photographs
    of petitioner and Payton. Blackburn admitted that she had previously been shown the
    photographs by the defense investigator. She indicated that she did not know who in the
    photographs was the shooter and that they “favor[ed]” each other. On cross, the State asked
    Blackburn why she could not identify the shooter from the photographs, and she responded that
    “you can’t see them. I mean, they look alike on there. You can’t hardly tell.” The State then
    asked if there was anything in particular about the photographs that prevented her from being
    able to tell who the shooter was, and Blackburn responded that “Well, one thing, you can’t see
    them clearly, so you really can’t [identify them.]”
    ¶ 15   The trial court entered extensive factual findings, spanning almost 14 pages of the record.
    Regarding some of petitioner’s challenges to the eyewitnesses, the court considered both
    -5­
    No. 1-15-0132
    Thomass’s and Blackburn’s ability to view petitioner at the time of the shooting and subsequent
    identifications to police, either by photo array or lineup, as well as their credibility, including
    their admitted drug use. The trial court further reviewed their testimony alongside the videotape
    of the shooting, which provided corroboration of their accounts. Specifically, when considering
    their opportunity to view the shooter, the trial court noted, “Thomass was standing by the door
    looking out as the car pulls up outside and the shooter exits and walks into the sub shop.”
    Further, “[t]he shooter is basically right in front of Thomass when he starts shooting and
    continues to walk forward, shooting as he walks.” Although neither one of the eyewitnesses
    appeared to have had more than a few seconds to see the shooter’s face while he was actually in
    the sub shop, the court noted that “[a]t different times the shooter comes within a couple of feet
    of both witnesses.” The court also noted that “[b]oth Thomass and Blackburn testified that they
    recognized defendant from the neighborhood.”
    ¶ 16   The trial court stated:
    “While there’s some minor inconsistency in impeachment in their
    testimony, what strikes me most about Thomas [sic] and Blackburn is that neither
    one of them really has any reason to want to be involved in this case as a witness,
    which was apparent in their manner and demeanor on the witness stand.
    While Blackburn knew Rah Rah, which is the victim’s nickname, from the
    neighborhood and appears to be joking around with him before he is shot, Thomas
    [sic] only knew who he was and there isn’t any evidence of a close relationship
    with him or any other relationship with the defendant who is known by the name
    Von which would influence either one of these two people to come in here and
    falsely accuse the defendant or say it was him if they weren’t certain it was.
    -6­
    No. 1-15-0132
    Wouldn’t it be much easier for both of them to say I’m not sure, I didn’t
    get a good look at the guy, or something like that?
    On the other hand, doesn’t it make more sense that they’re just two people
    from the neighborhood who happened to be in the sub shop at the time of the
    shooting, get hauled into the police station, and rather than lie to the police to
    avoid responsibility they cooperate and tell the truth and identify defendant
    because they did get a good enough look at him and they had seen him before in
    the neighborhood.”
    ¶ 17   The court found petitioner guilty of first degree murder, then sentenced him to 50 years’
    imprisonment.
    ¶ 18   On appeal, petitioner maintained that (1) the State failed to prove him guilty beyond a
    reasonable doubt because the testimony of identification witnesses was not credible, (2) he was
    denied his sixth amendment right to confrontation, and (3) the trial court improperly admitted the
    prior inconsistent statements of a witness pursuant to section 115-10.0 of the Code of Criminal
    Procedure of 1963 (725 ILCS 5/115-10.1 (West 2000)). People v. Brown, No. 1-04-2048 (2006)
    (unpublished order under Illinois Supreme Court Rule 23). We affirmed petitioner’s conviction,
    specifically finding that “[t]he trial judge completely discussed all the evidence presented at trial
    by both parties. Clearly, the trial court considered the credibility of both Thomas[s] and
    Blackburn and their drug histories as well as any inconsistencies in their testimony.” 
    Id. at 18.
    ¶ 19   In December 2006, petitioner filed a pro se postconviction petition, alleging multiple
    claims, including ineffective assistance of trial and appellate counsel. Judge Fox, who had
    presided over petitioner’s trial, summarily dismissed the petition at the first stage of
    postconviction proceedings, and petitioner appealed, arguing that the trial court erred in
    -7­
    No. 1-15-0132
    dismissing his petition because he presented the gist of a claim of ineffective assistance of trial
    counsel based on counsel’s failure to present evidence as to the effect of narcotics on the
    observational abilities of the key identification witnesses, and the gist of a claim of ineffective
    assistance of appellate counsel for failing to raise trial counsel’s ineffectiveness. We held that
    petitioner had failed to support his claims with any affidavits, records, or other evidence and had
    failed to explain the absence of supporting documentation, and we concluded that summary
    dismissal was proper. People v. Brown, No. 1-07-0406 (2008) (unpublished order under Supreme
    Court Rule 23).
    ¶ 20   In June 2009, petitioner sought leave to file his first successive pro se postconviction
    petition, which alleged his actual innocence based on his own affidavit and an affidavit from
    Martell Halbert. Petitioner asserted that he was innocent and his deceased brother Payton was the
    actual shooter. In his affidavit, petitioner stated that in early 2007, he learned of two witnesses to
    the shooting, Martell Halbert and Mario Nixon. Both were present in the sub shop at the time of
    the shooting but had not been interviewed by the police. Petitioner stated that he was unable to
    procure an affidavit from Nixon but that Nixon would be willing to sign one. Halbert stated in
    his affidavit that early on the morning of the shooting, he and Nixon had been walking to the
    sandwich shop where the incident occurred. Payton offered to give the men a ride, drove them to
    the sandwich shop, and left. About 10 or 15 minutes later, Payton returned to the shop with a
    pistol and fired several gunshots at the victim “without hesitation.” “Halbert was never
    interviewed by police and was unaware that he had been captured on the surveillance camera in
    the store.” People v. Brown, 
    2012 IL App (1st) 092597-U
    , ¶ 8.
    ¶ 21   Judge Fox denied petitioner leave to file the petition, and we affirmed, finding there was
    no legal basis to consider the purported testimony from Nixon, where petitioner had failed to
    -8­
    No. 1-15-0132
    attach an affidavit from him. Halbert’s affidavit was not newly discovered evidence because both
    Halbert and Nixon were visible in the surveillance video of the sub shop. The record showed that
    the surveillance footage in question was available to petitioner before trial, and it was played at
    trial on at least two occasions. Further, petitioner acknowledged in his petition that the two
    witnesses “were captured *** on the surveillance videotape,” and thus, we found that petitioner
    should have discovered Halbert at or before trial through the exercise of minimal due diligence.
    
    Id. ¶¶ 17-18.
    We also found that petitioner’s claim failed because the evidence was not of such a
    conclusive character that it would probably change the result on retrial, given the strong evidence
    at trial. We concluded that the proffered evidence raised a similar set of facts (i.e., that Payton
    was the actual shooter and that petitioner was living out of state) that had been previously heard
    and rejected by the fact finder. Accordingly, we found that Halbert’s affidavit did not “raise the
    probability that it is more likely than not that no reasonable juror would have convicted him in
    the light of the new evidence.” (Internal quotation marks omitted.) 
    Id. ¶¶ 17,
    19 (quoting People
    v. Edwards, 
    2012 IL 111711
    , ¶ 24, quoting Schlup v. Delo, 
    513 U.S. 298
    , 327 (1995)).
    ¶ 22    On September 24, 2014, petitioner sought leave to file a second successive pro se
    postconviction petition, alleging actual innocence based on the sworn affidavits of Terrell Austin
    and Randy Norwood. Petitioner contended that he first learned of this evidence in the summer of
    2014.
    ¶ 23    Austin’s April 8, 2014, affidavit states, in relevant part, that he was a lookout for heroin
    dealers on the 600 block of Cicero Avenue and on January 16, 2001, he was looking for “an
    associate” named Robert Byrd, also known as “Rah Rah.” While next door to the sub shop at his
    “security post” between 12:30 and 1 a.m., he “saw another one of [his] associate[s] name[d]
    David Payton ‘DP’ drive up in his car and jump[ ] out with a gun in his hand.” Austin called out
    -9­
    No. 1-15-0132
    “What you on man[?]” to Payton, who told Austin to “fall back” and then continued into the sub
    shop. Austin was a few steps behind Payton when “out of nowhere [he] heard 2 [to] 3 gun shots
    then a man ran out the sub shop. [Austin] took a quick look in the sub shop while [he] ran for
    cover, [he] heard afew [sic] more shots and saw [Payton] run back to his car and drive off.”
    When Austin looked inside the sub shop after Payton left, he saw Byrd “on the floor shot up”
    and then left the scene.
    ¶ 24    Austin further averred that earlier on the day of the shooting, he was with Byrd when he
    and Payton “got into it” about whose “drops should be sold on certain nights.” Austin “was
    forced to leave the hood” to avoid being killed because “some of the Vice Lords close to [Byrd]
    *** claimed [Austin] had a role in [Payton] ambushing [Byrd].” Austin then went back to his
    “old neighborhood.” In 2014, Austin reconnected with “Ms. Rawls” who he “used to mess with.”
    She told him she had a child with petitioner and that he was in prison for killing Byrd. After
    Austin explained that petitioner did not kill Byrd and that Payton did that “crazy stuff,” she
    asked him to inform the State’s Attorney’s office. Austin declined, so she asked him to prepare
    an affidavit.
    ¶ 25    Randy Norwood’s affidavit states, in relevant part, that at around 12:30 a.m. on January
    16, 2001, he was in an apartment at Ferdinand Street and Lawler Avenue with Cedric Redmond.
    After he heard a knock at the door, Redmond let Payton in, and Norwood overheard “Payton ask
    [Redmond] if he had a gun that he could borrow for a few minutes.” Payton said he “needed a
    gun real fast, since he just seen [Byrd] at the sub shop on Cicero, when Payton was dropping off
    Mario Nixon and Martel [sic] Halbert.” Payton told Redmond “that he was just going to scare
    [Byrd] so he can stay off his turf and stop him from playing games” and Redmond gave “Payton
    a black revolver maybe a .38 or .32 type of gun.”
    - 10 ­
    No. 1-15-0132
    ¶ 26   Norwood further averred that when Payton did not return with the gun, they heard that
    Payton had shot Byrd at the sub shop that morning and that Byrd was dead. “This all started an
    all out war” between Byrd’s crew and Payton’s crew. “[T]he word on the street” was that Byrd’s
    “crew finally caught up with Payton sometime in late 2003 in revenge for [Byrd’s] death,” and
    “they also found out that [Redmond] gave [sic] the gun that killed [Byrd].” According to “rumors
    on the street,” Redmond “was killed because of this but nobody knows who killed them.” When
    Norwood heard what happened to Redmond, he “didn’t want to get involved” out of concern for
    his safety. “[He] knew [Payton’s] younger brother [petitioner] was locked up for [Byrd’s] murder
    and didn’t want to get involved.”
    ¶ 27   In addition, Norwood averred that he viewed the video surveillance tape of the shooting
    and he was “positive” that Payton was “the man on the surveillance tape” because he was the
    same height and weight and “had on the same exact clothes” that Payton was wearing when
    Norwood saw him earlier that morning.
    ¶ 28   This time, the petition for leave to file a successive postconviction petition was heard by
    Judge Jorge Luis Alonso, who has since been appointed to the federal bench in 2014. Although
    Judge Alonso found that the affidavits were newly discovered evidence, he concluded that they
    were not of such a conclusive character as would probably change the result on retrial. In its
    written order denying petitioner leave to file, the trial court found:
    “This evidence is not ‘of such conclusive character’ that it
    would ‘probably change the result on retrial.’ Neither witness
    states that he actually saw Payton commit the shooting or that
    [petitioner] was not at the scene. Nothing in either affidavit might
    explain why two eyewitnesses from the sub shop positively
    - 11 ­
    No. 1-15-0132
    identified the shooter as [petitioner]. The theory that Payton
    committed the murder remains directly rebutted by the record, as
    [petitioner] was convicted based on positive eyewitness testimony
    that [petitioner] was the shooter.” (Emphasis in original.)
    ¶ 29   On appeal, petitioner maintains that the trial court erred in denying his second motion for
    leave to file a successive postconviction petition. He contends that the Austin and Norwood
    affidavits show that he made a colorable claim of actual innocence that should be tested at the
    second stage of a postconviction proceeding.
    ¶ 30   However, before turning to our analysis of petitioner’s issue on appeal, we note that this
    court has become aware that petitioner has been pursuing the same claim as part of proceedings
    on a federal habeas corpus petition, which petitioner initially filed in 2010 in the federal district
    court for the Northern District of Illinois before Judge Virginia Kendall. Brown v. Gaetz, No. 10
    C 1463, 
    2015 WL 1976366
    , at *1 (N.D. Ill. May 1, 2015) (certificate of appealability denied 7th
    Cir. No. 15-2156 (Feb. 4, 2016)); see People v. Davis, 
    65 Ill. 2d 157
    , 161 (1976) (a court may
    take judicial notice of facts capable of immediate and accurate demonstration by resort to easily
    accessible sources of indisputable accuracy). Petitioner was appointed counsel in those
    proceedings in February 2011 and supplemented his petition. Those proceedings were stayed
    twice, due to petitioner’s proceedings in state court. The stay was lifted after our previous
    appellate judgment, briefing was completed in the federal court, and petitioner requested a stay,
    again, based on the proceedings on this second successive petition.
    ¶ 31   In 2015, Judge Kendall refused petitioner’s request to stay the habeas proceedings,
    finding that those proceedings had “already been stayed twice to allow [him] to resolve pending
    state law claims and a third stay is not warranted.” Among other claims made before the federal
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    No. 1-15-0132
    court, petitioner contended that he was actually innocent based on the affidavits of “Terrell
    Austin, Randy Norwood, and Martell Halbert *** essentially claiming that Brown’s now-
    deceased half-brother, [sic] David Payton, was the shooter in this case.” The federal court
    utilized the “fundamental miscarriage of justice” actual innocence standard also used in Illinois
    to review the totality of the evidence presented at trial and petitioner’s proffered evidence. It
    questioned the timeliness of petitioner’s proffered evidence but found that it “need not rely
    exclusively upon such dilatoriness” because petitioner’s evidence “d[id] not sufficiently rebut the
    evidence presented by the state at trial.” The court noted that the “only ‘new’ eyewitness of the
    shooting is Martell Halbert,” that Austin was only present outside of the sub shop, and that
    Norwood was not present at or immediately near the scene of the crime. The federal court
    concluded, “Against the state’s six witnesses and corroborating surveillance video, the affidavits
    of these four witnesses simply do not warrant the application of the miscarriage of justice
    exception or an evidentiary hearing. [Citations.] After reviewing the evidence, old and new, of
    Brown’s guilt, this Court cannot conclude that ‘no juror, acting reasonably, would have voted to
    find him guilty beyond a reasonable doubt.’ ” Brown, 
    2015 WL 1976366
    , at *10 (N.D. Ill. May
    1, 2015) (certificate of appealability denied 7th Cir. No. 15-2156 (Feb. 4, 2016) (quoting
    Coleman v. Lemke, 
    739 F.3d 342
    , 254 (7th Cir. 2014)).
    ¶ 32   In light of the fact that another court has already considered the issue that petitioner
    currently brings before this court, this court ordered the parties to brief the issue of whether
    petitioner’s claim is barred by res judicata, collateral estoppel, or law of the case—preclusion
    doctrines that prevent a litigant “from ‘taking two bites out of the same appellate apple.’ ”
    People v. Tenner, 
    206 Ill. 2d 381
    , 395-97 (2002) (quoting People v. Partee, 
    125 Ill. 2d 24
    , 37
    (1988)). Petitioner contends that the denial of his federal habeas petition has no preclusive effect
    - 13 ­
    No. 1-15-0132
    because the question before this court is not identical to the one before the habeas court.
    Petitioner alternatively requests that this court reach the merits of his claim “in the interest of
    fundamental fairness.” The State contends that petitioner’s claim has already been decided
    against him in a final judgment by the federal habeas court, and accordingly, this court should
    apply collateral estoppel to bar his claim.
    ¶ 33   Although we would be inclined to find petitioner’s claim precluded, we need not reach
    this issue. Even assuming that collateral estoppel does not apply or bar petitioner’s claim, or if
    we were to accept petitioner’s request to reach the merits of his claim based on fundamental
    fairness, we would reach the same conclusion that was reached by both the federal court and the
    circuit court—that petitioner has failed to raise a colorable claim of actual innocence.
    ¶ 34   The Post-Conviction Hearing Act (725 ILCS 5/122-1 et seq. (West 2014)) provides a
    tool by which those under criminal sentence in this state can assert that their convictions were the
    result of a substantial denial of their rights under the United States Constitution or the Illinois
    Constitution or both. 725 ILCS 5/122-1(a)(1) (West 2010); People v. Coleman, 
    183 Ill. 2d 366
    ,
    378-79 (1998). Postconviction relief is limited to constitutional deprivations that occurred at the
    original trial. 
    Coleman, 183 Ill. 2d at 380
    . “A proceeding brought under the [Act] is not an
    appeal of a [petitioner’s] underlying judgment. Rather, it is a collateral attack on the judgment.”
    People v. Evans, 
    186 Ill. 2d 83
    , 89 (1999).
    ¶ 35   Only one postconviction proceeding is contemplated under the Act (Edwards, 
    2012 IL 111711
    , ¶ 22), and a petitioner seeking to file a successive postconviction petition must first
    obtain leave of court (People v. Tidwell, 
    236 Ill. 2d 150
    , 157 (2010)). It is the petitioner’s burden
    to obtain leave before further proceedings on his claims can follow and to “submit enough in the
    way of documentation to allow a circuit court to make that determination.” 
    Id. at 157,
    161.
    - 14 ­
    No. 1-15-0132
    “[L]eave of court should be granted when the petitioner’s supporting documentation raises the
    probability that ‘it is more likely that not that no reasonable juror would have convicted him in
    the light of the new evidence.’ ” Edwards, 
    2012 IL 111711
    , ¶ 24 (quoting 
    Schlup, 513 U.S. at 327
    ).
    ¶ 36    A petitioner faces “immense procedural default hurdles when bringing a successive post-
    conviction petition,” which “are lowered in very limited circumstances,” as successive petitions
    “plague the finality of criminal litigation.” 
    Tenner, 206 Ill. 2d at 392
    . However, our supreme
    court has found “the statutory bar to a successive postconviction petition will be relaxed when
    fundamental fairness so requires.” People v. Lee, 
    207 Ill. 2d 1
    , 5 (2003). The bar against
    successive postconviction proceedings should be relaxed when (1) a petitioner can establish
    “cause and prejudice” for the failure to raise the claim earlier or (2) he can show actual
    innocence under the “fundamental miscarriage of justice” exception. Edwards, 
    2012 IL 111711
    ,
    ¶¶ 22, 23. Well-pleaded factual allegations of a postconviction petition and its supporting
    evidence are taken as true unless they are positively rebutted by the record of the original trial
    proceedings. People v. Sanders, 
    2016 IL 118123
    , ¶ 48 (citing 
    Coleman, 183 Ill. 2d at 382
    ).
    ¶ 37    Whether abuse of discretion or de novo review applies to decisions granting or denying
    leave to file successive postconviction petitions is unclear. Edwards, 
    2012 IL 111711
    , ¶ 30. In
    Edwards, the court pointed out that decisions granting or denying leave of court are generally
    reviewed for abuse of discretion. 
    Id. However, the
    Edwards court recognized that the
    requirement that a successive postconviction petition based on a claim of actual innocence must
    state a colorable claim, as a matter of law, suggests de novo review. 
    Id. Although our
    supreme
    court has not resolved the question, we need not address the issue here because petitioner’s claim
    fails under either standard. See id.; People v. Calhoun, 
    2016 IL App (1st) 141021
    , ¶ 32.
    - 15 ­
    No. 1-15-0132
    ¶ 38   A petitioner is not entitled to an evidentiary hearing on a postconviction petition as a
    matter of right; rather, a hearing is required only when the allegations of the petition, supported
    by the trial record and accompanying affidavits, make a substantial showing of a violation of a
    constitutional right. People v. Jones, 
    191 Ill. 2d 354
    , 361 (2000). Because “[c]redibility
    determinations may be made only at a third-stage evidentiary hearing,” all well-pleaded factual
    allegations of a postconviction petition and its supporting evidence must be taken as true unless
    they are positively rebutted by the record of the original trial proceedings. Sanders, 
    2016 IL 118123
    , ¶¶ 42, 48.
    ¶ 39   “Actual innocence” does not involve an analysis of whether a petitioner had been proved
    guilty beyond a reasonable doubt. People v. Savory, 
    309 Ill. App. 3d 408
    , 414 (1999) (citing
    People v. Washington, 
    171 Ill. 2d 475
    , 479 (1996)). Actual innocence is not the same as
    sufficiency of the evidence or reasonable doubt, nor mere impeachment of trial witnesses, but a
    claim of vindication or exoneration. Id.; People v. House, 
    2015 IL App (1st) 110580
    , ¶¶ 41, 46.
    The requirements of an actual innocence claim are “extraordinarily difficult to meet” (People v.
    Coleman, 
    2013 IL 113307
    , ¶ 94), and “[c]ourts rarely grant postconviction petitions based on
    claims of actual innocence.” People v. Wallace, 
    2015 IL App (3d) 130489
    , ¶ 14.
    ¶ 40   “The evidence of actual innocence must be (1) newly discovered, (2) not discoverable
    earlier through the exercise of due diligence, (3) material and not merely cumulative, and (4) of
    such conclusive character that it would probably change the result on retrial.” Sanders, 
    2016 IL 118123
    , ¶ 24. The conclusiveness of the evidence has been held to be the most important
    requirement of an actual innocence claim. See 
    Washington, 171 Ill. 2d at 489
    .
    - 16 ­
    No. 1-15-0132
    ¶ 41   As an initial matter, the State contends that petitioner did not establish that his proposed
    evidence was newly discovered and that his claim to have recently learned of the affiants is
    insufficient where he could have discovered their testimony with due diligence.
    ¶ 42   We also question whether petitioner’s proposed evidence could be considered newly
    discovered. “Newly discovered evidence is evidence that was unavailable at trial and could not
    have been discovered sooner through due diligence.” People v. Harris, 
    206 Ill. 2d 293
    , 301
    (2002). Evidence is not newly discovered when it presents facts already known to a petitioner at
    or prior to trial, though the source of those facts may have been unknown, unavailable, or
    uncooperative. People v. Wideman, 
    2016 IL App (1st) 123092
    ; People v. Jones, 
    399 Ill. App. 3d 341
    , 364 (2010); People v. Barnslater, 
    373 Ill. App. 3d 512
    , 523 (2007). As the above recitation
    of petitioner’s trial proceedings illustrate, petitioner’s defense is and always has always been that
    his deceased brother, Payton, was the actual shooter. The proposed testimony of these new
    affiants shows that they were known close associates of his brother, and as such, it is doubtful
    that petitioner would not have known or been able to discover their testimony earlier. The
    affiants offer only vague explanations about their whereabouts and unavailability since the
    offense. Additionally, petitioner previously presented, as part of his prior successive
    postconviction petition, the affidavit of Halbert, who averred that Payton dropped off Halbert
    and Nixon at the sub shop, then returned later with a gun. In these circumstances, petitioner’s
    proposed evidence, showing that Payton picked up a gun and was later outside the sub shop
    before the shooting, would not be considered newly discovered.
    ¶ 43   Nonetheless, even assuming that the proposed evidence is newly discovered, we conclude
    that petitioner’s claim fails because he is unable to establish “the most important element of an
    actual innocence claim”—specifically, that it is “so conclusive that it is more likely than not that
    - 17 ­
    No. 1-15-0132
    no reasonable juror would find him guilty beyond a reasonable doubt.” Sanders, 
    2016 IL 118123
    , ¶ 47 (citing Edwards, 
    2012 IL 111711
    , ¶ 40); 
    Washington, 171 Ill. 2d at 489
    .
    ¶ 44   This standard has been recognized to be stronger than the showing necessary to establish
    prejudice under Strickland v. Washington, 
    466 U.S. 668
    (1984). Edwards, 
    2012 IL 111711
    , ¶ 40
    (citing Morales v. Johnson, 
    659 F.3d 588
    , 605 (7th Cir. 2011)). In making this determination, a
    court must “make a probabilistic determination about what reasonable, properly instructed jurors
    would do.” 
    Schlup, 513 U.S. at 329
    . “It must be presumed that a reasonable juror would consider
    fairly all of the evidence presented. It must also be presumed that such a juror would
    conscientiously obey the instructions of the trial court requiring proof beyond a reasonable
    doubt.” 
    Id. ¶ 45
      The United States Supreme Court, whose standard this state has adopted in Edwards,
    
    2012 IL 111711
    , has said that the “fundamental miscarriage of justice” standard required to show
    actual innocence:
    “does not merely require a showing that a reasonable doubt exists in the light of
    the new evidence, but rather that no reasonable juror would have found the
    defendant guilty. It is not the district court’s independent judgment as to whether
    reasonable doubt exists that the standard addresses; rather the standard requires
    the district court to make a probabilistic determination about what reasonable,
    properly instructed jurors would do. Thus, a petitioner does not meet the threshold
    requirement unless he persuades the district court that, in light of the new
    evidence, no juror, acting reasonably, would have voted to find him guilty beyond
    a reasonable doubt.” 
    Schlup, 513 U.S. at 329
    .
    - 18 ­
    No. 1-15-0132
    ¶ 46    The above standard “ ‘ensures that petitioner’s case is truly “extraordinary” [citation]
    while still providing petitioner a meaningful avenue by which to avoid a manifest injustice.’ ”
    See People v. English, 
    2014 IL App (1st) 102732-B
    , ¶ 44 (quoting 
    Schlup, 513 U.S. at 327
    ). This
    court has also noted that “the supreme court did not intend for the colorable claim standard to be
    ‘a mere pleading standard,’ but a standard that restricts review of successive postconviction
    petitions only to those that truly relate to an unjust incarceration of the defendant. Those cases
    that are truly ‘extraordinary.’ ” (Internal quotation marks omitted.) Id. (citing 
    Schlup, 513 U.S. at 327
    ).
    ¶ 47    With these principles in mind, we turn to petitioner’s proffered evidence in this case.
    Petitioner contends that he has raised a colorable claim of actual innocence based on the
    affidavits of Halbert, Austin, and Norwood. We examine each affidavit in turn.
    ¶ 48    In Halbert’s affidavit, which was attached to petitioner’s first successive postconviction
    petition, he alleged that he was in the sub shop and saw that Payton was the actual shooter.
    Halbert further stated that he was never interviewed by police and was unaware that he had been
    captured on the surveillance camera in the store.
    ¶ 49    Petitioner, however, did not attach Halbert’s affidavit to his second successive
    postconviction petition, which is at issue here, and made no argument or reference to the
    affidavit in his petition. Nevertheless, even if this affidavit were properly before us, this court has
    previously considered whether Halbert’s affidavit supported an actual innocence claim and
    resolved that question against petitioner. In concluding that petitioner “should have discovered
    Halbert at or before trial through the exercise of minimal due diligence,” we reasoned that the
    surveillance footage “was available to [petitioner] before trial, and was played at trial on at least
    two occasions.” Brown, 
    2012 IL App (1st) 092597-U
    , ¶ 17. We also found that Halbert’s
    - 19 ­
    No. 1-15-0132
    affidavit was not of such a conclusive character that it was likely to change the result on retrial
    based on the strong trial evidence and the fact that the court rejected a similar set of facts at trial.
    We thus concluded that the proffered evidence did not raise “ ‘the probability that “it is more
    likely than not that no reasonable juror would have convicted him in the light of the new
    evidence.” ’ ” 
    Id. ¶ 19
    (quoting Edwards, 
    2012 IL 111711
    , ¶ 24, quoting 
    Schlup, 513 U.S. at 327
    ). In these circumstances, we find that collateral estoppel precludes petitioner from
    relitigating his actual innocence claim as it relates to Halbert’s affidavit. See 
    Tenner, 206 Ill. 2d at 396
    (“The collateral estoppel doctrine bars relitigation of an issue already decided in a prior
    case.”). Moreover, even if we were to conclude that petitioner could raise Halbert’s affidavit
    again, in spite of our earlier rejection of it, we would continue to conclude that it does not
    support an actual innocence claim for the same reasons stated previously.
    ¶ 50    Next, in Austin’s affidavit, he contended that around the time of the offense he saw
    Payton drive up to the sub shop “and jump[ ] out with a gun in his hand.” After Payton went into
    the sub shop, Austin heard gunshots, then saw “[Payton] run back to his car and drive off.”
    Austin also contended that he was present when Byrd and Payton had a disagreement earlier that
    day about drug sales.
    ¶ 51    Austin, however, was not present at the shooting and only heard the gunshots.
    Accordingly, Austin did not, and cannot, exonerate petitioner, since he did not actually observe
    what happened inside the sub shop. See House, 
    2015 IL App (1st) 110580
    , ¶ 41 (“A claim of
    actual innocence is not a challenge to whether the defendant was proved guilty beyond a
    reasonable doubt, but rather an assertion of total vindication or exoneration.”).
    ¶ 52    Moreover, even if we could construe Austin’s affidavit as implicating Payton in the
    shooting, we conclude that the new account is directly rebutted by the evidence at trial, which
    - 20 ­
    No. 1-15-0132
    included actual eyewitness testimony from two witnesses who saw the shooter and identified him
    as petitioner, whom they knew from the neighborhood. Accordingly, this court need not construe
    such allegations as true. See Sanders, 
    2016 IL 118123
    , ¶ 48 (“Well-pleaded factual allegations of
    a postconviction petition and its supporting evidence must be taken as true unless they are
    positively rebutted by the record of the original trial proceedings.”); 
    Coleman, 183 Ill. 2d at 382
    (“this court has consistently upheld the dismissal of a post-conviction petition when the
    allegations are contradicted by the record from the original trial proceedings”).
    ¶ 53   Norwood’s affidavit fares no better. In his affidavit, Norwood states that around 12:30
    a.m. on January 16, 2001, he was in an apartment when Payton arrived, borrowed a gun from
    someone else at the apartment, and said that he was going to go scare Byrd. Norwood further
    averred that he later heard that Payton shot Byrd.
    ¶ 54   Norwood is also not an eyewitness to the offense at issue and is even more removed than
    Austin from the actual crime scene. He merely contends that Payton received a gun shortly
    before the shooting. However, like Austin, Norwood did not and cannot say that petitioner did
    not commit the crime because he has no personal knowledge of what happened in the sub shop.
    Additionally, while Norwood subsequently “heard” that Payton shot Byrd, Norwood does not
    claim to have any personal knowledge of this fact and does not even say from whom he “heard”
    this information.
    ¶ 55   Neither Austin nor Norwood stated that petitioner was not present at the sub shop, where
    he was identified at trial by eyewitnesses who were actually present at the scene and who
    testified that it was petitioner who shot the victim. Neither affiant refuted the testimony at trial
    that petitioner was seen in the red Buick before, during, and after the shooting, or that the car
    used in the shooting belonged to petitioner’s child’s mother. At trial, Detective Delassandro
    - 21 ­
    No. 1-15-0132
    testified that the car was recovered from petitioner’s child’s mother and subsequently identified
    by Thomass, Gilmore, and Tenard. Since the affiants have no personal knowledge from which to
    aver that petitioner was not the shooter, the affidavits do not raise the probability that “it is more
    likely than not that no reasonable juror would find him guilty beyond a reasonable doubt.”
    Sanders, 
    2016 IL 118123
    , ¶ 47.
    ¶ 56   We also reject the idea that Norwood is now an “eyewitness” to the shooting, simply
    because he viewed the video surveillance tape of the shooting and was “positive” that Payton
    was “the man on the surveillance tape.” Norwood is not an eyewitness to the crime. There is
    absolutely no question that Norwood was not in or near the sub shop when the shooting
    occurred. Norwood’s review of a surveillance tape more than a decade after a shooting, cannot
    make him an eyewitness to a crime he never observed.
    ¶ 57   Moreover, Norwood does not claim to be able to identify Payton based on any facial
    recognition; instead, he contends that he can identify Payton based on his height, weight, and
    clothing. However, this court has also repeatedly reviewed the surveillance tape and has
    observed that it is grainy, in black and white, and noticeably distorted on the sides of the frame
    as if it was taken with a wide-angle lens. Additionally, Norwood’s statement that the shooter in
    the video was identifiable as Payton because of his height and weight is particularly lacking in
    character given that petitioner is arguing that he was misidentified because he and his brother
    look alike.
    ¶ 58   We thus conclude that petitioner has not asserted a colorable claim of actual innocence
    and the trial court did not err in denying him leave to file his successive postconviction petition.
    ¶ 59   Unlike the circuit court, the federal district court, and this majority opinion, the dissent
    contends that the new proposed evidence is not rebutted by the record. However, in doing so, the
    - 22 ­
    No. 1-15-0132
    dissent overstates the proposed evidence at issue. Specifically, the dissent describes the witnesses
    as “swearing under oath that the wrong person was convicted of this crime.” (Emphasis in
    original.) Infra ¶ 98. However, as stated above, the two affiants that are at issue here are not
    eyewitnesses to the crime. They did not see what happened inside the sub shop, and accordingly,
    their proposed testimony is rebutted by the trial witnesses who were actual eyewitnesses to the
    offense.
    ¶ 60    Additionally, although the dissent focuses on the requirement that we take all well-
    pleaded factual allegations as true, we believe that it misconstrues that concept and relies upon it
    so heavily that it effectively does away with the requirement that the new evidence be “so
    conclusive in character as would probably change the result on retrial.”
    ¶ 61    On this issue, we find the supreme court’s decision in Sanders, 
    2016 IL 118123
    ,
    instructive. 2 In Sanders, our supreme court considered the successive postconviction petition of
    the petitioner, who had been convicted of first degree murder and aggravated kidnapping and
    claimed that he was actually innocent of those crimes. In his successive postconviction petition,
    the petitioner submitted evidence purporting to show that Bingham, a co-offender, had acted
    alone and that Bingham’s trial testimony was perjured.
    ¶ 62    At trial, Bingham had testified that he, petitioner, and a co-offender were in partnership
    selling cocaine. On the day of the murder, he purchased cocaine from the victim, and, later, they
    2
    Although we recognize that Sanders arose from a slightly different procedural posture than this
    case, in that it was an appeal from a second-stage dismissal of a successive postconviction petition (and it
    was unclear whether the trial court in Sanders recognized that it was a successive petition before
    docketing it for further proceedings), the requirement that all well-pleaded factual allegations are taken as
    true applies equally in this case as in Sanders, and it is thus helpful to our analysis of this issue.
    - 23 ­
    No. 1-15-0132
    discovered that “the amount of the cocaine was six grams short.” 
    Id. ¶ 8.
    Bingham testified that
    the petitioner retrieved three guns and the three men went to the victim’s house to confront him.
    They put the victim in the trunk of a car and drove him to an abandoned building, and the
    petitioner brought the victim inside and shot him while the other two men waited outside. Three
    other witnesses testified to seeing the petitioner, Bingham, and the co-offender during the drug
    buy and/or when the men returned and took the victim from the house.
    ¶ 63   In his successive postconviction petition, the petitioner attached a transcript of testimony
    that Bingham had given during an evidentiary hearing on the co-offender’s postconviction
    petition. In that testimony, Bingham recanted his prior testimony identifying the petitioner and
    the other man as participating in the murder. He also denied being in the drug business with the
    petitioner or co-offender. Bingham testified that he purchased cocaine from the victim and
    discovered that the cocaine was “no good.” Bingham then went back to the victim, picked him
    up by himself, and put him in the trunk of Bingham’s car. Bingham then drove to an abandoned
    building, alone, and shot him. Bingham further claimed the State told him he would receive a 20­
    year sentence for his testimony and that that he “tried to tell the truth in the beginning but the
    State wanted [the petitioner and the co-offender] for some reason.” 
    Id. ¶ 16.
    ¶ 64   The petitioner also attached affidavits from two witnesses who claimed that Bingham had
    admitted to killing the victim and another affidavit from Patricia DeRamus, who claimed to be
    present with the victim when Bingham bought the cocaine and when Bingham returned, alone,
    and “ ‘march[ed]’ ” the victim out the back door at gunpoint. 
    Id. ¶ 15.
    DeRamus testified that she
    never saw the victim again and that Bingham returned later that evening and said that he had
    killed him. 
    Id. - 24
    ­
    No. 1-15-0132
    ¶ 65   In affirming the trial court’s dismissal of the petitioner’s successive postconviction
    petition, the supreme court reaffirmed that “[a]ll well-pleaded factual allegations not positively
    rebutted by the trial record must be taken as true for purposes of the State’s motion to dismiss.”
    
    Id. ¶ 42.
    Accordingly, it concluded that the trial court’s consideration of its own credibility
    determination it had made previously upon hearing the recantation testimony at issue at the co­
    offender’s evidentiary hearing was improper. Nonetheless, the supreme court found that the
    petition was properly dismissed. 
    Id. ¶ 55.
    ¶ 66   The court noted that Bingham’s “recantation conflicts with much of the evidence at [the
    petitioner’s] trial.” 
    Id. ¶ 48.
    The supreme court outlined the testimony of several witnesses at
    trial who testified regarding the petitioner’s presence and involvement in kidnapping the victim
    and stated:
    “Bingham’s recantation is contrary not only to his own testimony at petitioner’s
    trial, but also to the testimony of [two witnesses], who positively identified
    petitioner as being with Bingham and May at Barfield’s house the night of the
    murder and as having participated in the events leading up to Cooks’ murder. It is
    also contradicted by the pathologist’s testimony that Cooks was shot twice in the
    head, not once, as Bingham claimed in his recantation. Bingham’s recantation
    testimony merely adds conflicting evidence to the evidence adduced at the trial.
    Even taking the well-pleaded facts as true, we conclude that the recantation is not
    of such conclusive character as would probably change the result on retrial.” 
    Id. ¶ 52.
    ¶ 67   The supreme court also found that DeRamus’s “statements merely contradict the
    testimony of other occurrence witnesses” and that her “statement that Bingham ‘marched’ Cooks
    - 25 ­
    No. 1-15-0132
    out the back door *** directly contradicts Bingham’s recantation testimony when he said that he
    picked up Cooks, threw him over his shoulder, and took him out the back door.” 
    Id. ¶ 53.
    The
    supreme court thus concluded that her “proposed testimony would merely add to the evidence
    the jury heard at petitioner’s trial. It is not so conclusive in character as would probably change
    the result on retrial, either by itself or in conjunction with Bingham’s recantation.” 
    Id. ¶ 68
      By our reading of Sanders, the supreme court did not take the above allegations as true.
    They were not required to do so because they were not well-pleaded facts that were unrebutted
    by the record. Although Bingham had testified that his earlier trial testimony was perjured, that
    he acted alone, and that the State was pressuring Bingham to implicate the petitioner, the
    supreme court did not take those allegations as true. Likewise, although DeRamus contended that
    she saw Bingham, acting alone, purchase drugs then return and take the victim away at gunpoint,
    and that she heard Bingham admit to killing the victim, the supreme court did not take those
    allegations as true either. Instead, the court considered the trial record and the character of the
    petitioner’s proposed new evidence and concluded that the new evidence was rebutted by the
    evidence at the petitioner’s trial. Additionally, the court stated that, even taking the proposed
    evidence as true, it was “not so conclusive in character as would probably change the result on
    retrial.” 
    Id. We reach
    the same conclusion here.
    ¶ 69   The dissent in this case appears to assume that we take all allegations as true, and
    accordingly, because petitioner presented some proposed evidence tending to show that he was
    not the actual offender, his petition must continue for further proceedings. We believe that the
    dissent’s analysis misconstrues our supreme court’s decision in Sanders and turns the
    requirement that the evidence must be “so conclusive that it is more likely than not that no
    reasonable juror would have found him guilty” into a question of whether the proposed evidence
    - 26 ­
    No. 1-15-0132
    could possibly create reasonable doubt in any juror, effectively doing away with the
    conclusiveness standard altogether. It is for this reason that the dissent attacks the credibility of
    the trial witnesses, essentially rehashing a reasonable doubt question as to petitioner’s underlying
    conviction. However, a postconviction petition is not, and should not be, based on the reasonable
    doubt standard. 
    Savory, 309 Ill. App. 3d at 414
    (citing 
    Washington, 171 Ill. 2d at 479
    ). As stated
    previously, actual innocence is not the same as sufficiency of the evidence or reasonable doubt,
    nor mere impeachment of trial witnesses, but a claim of vindication or exoneration. Id.; House,
    
    2015 IL App (1st) 110580
    , ¶¶ 41, 46.
    ¶ 70   Moreover, the credibility of the witnesses at trial is no longer before this court. As much
    as the dissent characterizes the witnesses and their testimony as “flaw[ed],” (infra ¶ 89), their
    credibility has already been resolved by the fact finder, which concluded that they had no
    motivation to lie and that they were “just two people from the neighborhood who happened to be
    in the sub shop at the time of the shooting *** and rather than lie to the police[,] *** they
    cooperate[d] and [told] the truth and identif[ied] [petitioner] because they did get a good enough
    look at him and they had seen him before in the neighborhood.”
    ¶ 71   The dissent also mischaracterizes the testimony at trial regarding an allegedly “striking
    resemblance” between petitioner and Payton. Infra ¶¶ 89, 91. No one testified at trial, not even
    petitioner’s own mother, that petitioner and Payton bore a “striking resemblance” to each other.
    Moreover, there was no testimony showing that Payton used petitioner’s photo identification at
    the hospital, or otherwise that it was because they looked alike that Payton was able to identify
    himself as petitioner when seeking medical treatment. Although Blackburn did testify that she
    could not identify the shooter in the two photographs provided by the defense attorney, she later
    clarified that it was because the photographs were not clear. Following this clarification, the
    - 27 ­
    No. 1-15-0132
    defense attorney did not attempt to show those photographs to anyone else, including Thomass,
    who also identified petitioner as the shooter, and all of the other witnesses who placed petitioner
    at the scene, and in the car, before, during, and after the shooting.
    ¶ 72   In People v. Rivera, 
    2016 IL App (1st) 132573
    , the First Division of the First District of
    this court considered a petitioner’s postconviction claim of actual innocence. There, the
    petitioner had been convicted of first degree murder as the shooter in a gang-related shooting. In
    his postconviction petition, the petitioner raised a claim of actual innocence based on an affidavit
    from his codefendant. 
    Id. ¶ 1.
    The codefendant had pleaded guilty to first degree murder under a
    theory of accountability, and, in the affidavit, the codefendant stated for the first time that he was
    the shooter in the murder, not the petitioner. 
    Id. ¶¶ 6-7.
    ¶ 73   The reviewing court found that the codefendant’s affidavit was not of such conclusive
    character that it would probably change the result on retrial. The court noted that the supreme
    court on direct appeal described the evidence of the petitioner’s guilt as “ ‘overwhelming.’ ” 
    Id. ¶ 31
    (quoting People v. Rivera, 
    227 Ill. 2d 1
    , 26 (2007)). The court pointed out that the evidence
    at trial consisted of witnesses who were with the petitioner before, during, and after the shooting
    and that the petitioner was seen with a gun immediately after the shooting. 
    Id. Moreover, although
    the court observed that the codefendant’s affidavit did not say that the petitioner “was
    present in the van, he does not say [the petitioner] was not present” during the shooting.
    (Emphasis in original.) 
    Id. ¶ 32.
    ¶ 74   As these cases clarify, this court can, and should, in our de novo review, consider the
    character of the proposed evidence. Only by doing so can we determine whether the evidence is
    so conclusive that it is more likely than not that no reasonable juror would have found him guilty
    beyond a reasonable doubt. As the United States Supreme Court has emphasized, actual
    - 28 ­
    No. 1-15-0132
    innocence claims “must be supported ‘with new reliable evidence—whether it be exculpatory
    scientific evidence, trustworthy eyewitness accounts, or critical physical evidence—that was not
    presented at trial.’ ” Edwards, 
    2012 IL 111711
    , ¶ 32 (quoting 
    Schlup, 513 U.S. at 324
    ). Although
    neither the United States Supreme Court nor our Illinois Supreme Court has specifically limited
    the type of evidence available to support an actual innocence claim to those delineated
    categories, it is clear that the evidence here is so far removed in character from this type of “new
    reliable evidence” that it could never support such a claim.
    ¶ 75   In this case, petitioner’s proffered evidence comes from two affiants who did not see the
    actual shooting and whose statements came long after the offense at issue. The gist of their
    statements—that petitioner’s brother Payton was seen picking up a gun and driving to and
    entering the sub shop shortly before the shooting—does not exonerate petitioner from having
    committed this crime.
    ¶ 76   Moreover, even if we excused the fact that these witnesses did not see the actual
    shooting, we conclude, like the federal and circuit courts, that their statements are directly
    rebutted by the evidence at trial. The proposed evidence does not explain why petitioner was
    identified by two witnesses to the shooting, both of whom recognized him from the
    neighborhood, and neither of whom have recanted their trial testimony. It also does not explain
    why the car that was used in the offense belonged to petitioner’s child’s mother or why petitioner
    was seen driving the car to the sub shop and returning it to his child’s mother shortly after the
    offense. Petitioner’s proposed evidence merely impeaches or contradicts the trial testimony and,
    accordingly, does not support a claim of actual innocence. See People v. Williams, 2016 IL App
    (1st) 133459, ¶ 57 (“at best the evidence contained in the affidavit merely affects the issue of the
    sufficiency of the evidence and therefore does not totally vindicate defendant”).
    - 29 ­
    No. 1-15-0132
    ¶ 77    In Wideman, 
    2016 IL App (1st) 123092
    , ¶ 31, the petitioner, who had been previously
    convicted of murder and armed robbery of the victim, sought leave to file a successive
    postconviction petition claiming actual innocence based on the recantation of a trial witness,
    Anton Williams, who submitted an affidavit saying that others were attacking the victim and that
    the petitioner was “only standing there” and “didn’t do anything at all” to the victim. This court
    noted that the petitioner had been found guilty, in part based on a confession, and that the
    proposed testimony was not of such conclusive character that it would probably change the result
    on retrial. The court stated that:
    “The defendant essentially asks us to find that it is more likely than not that the
    jury would choose to entirely disregard the defendant’s detailed confession and
    acquit the defendant, had the jury heard Williams testify that the defendant was
    merely ‘standing there’ and ‘didn’t do anything’ to Thomas. The defendant does
    not explain why the jury would completely disregard his own words detailing his
    participation in the crime in favor of Williams’ testimony to the contrary. Such a
    proposition is unreasonable. Clearly, even if the jury were presented with such
    conflicting evidence, it could easily conclude that the defendant’s detailed, self-
    incriminating statements were entitled to more weight and (along with the other
    trial evidence) supported a finding of guilt. We certainly cannot say that an
    acquittal on either the murder or armed robbery charge would be ‘probable’ had
    Williams testified to the statements in his May 2010 affidavit. Thus, we do not
    find that the defendant set forth evidence ‘of such conclusive character that it
    would probably change the result on retrial’ as is required to allow leave to file a
    - 30 ­
    No. 1-15-0132
    successive petition on the basis of actual innocence.” 
    Id. ¶ 67
    (quoting Edwards,
    
    2012 IL 111711
    , ¶ 32).
    ¶ 78   So too here, we conclude that, even if a jury were presented with the testimony proposed
    by Austin and Norwood, a juror “could easily conclude” that the evidence presented at
    petitioner’s trial—which included unimpeached and uncontradicted eyewitness identifications
    and other testimony that placed petitioner at or near the scene, and in the car that was used in the
    offense—was “entitled to more weight and *** supported a finding of guilt.” 
    Id. “We certainly
    cannot say that an acquittal *** would be ‘probable’ had” Austin and Norwood testified
    consistently with their affidavits. 
    Id. We thus
    conclude, like in Wideman, that the proposed
    evidence was not “ ‘of such conclusive character that it would probably change the result on
    retrial’ as is required to allow leave to file a successive petition on the basis of actual innocence.”
    
    Id. ¶ 79
      The dissent, however, appears to believe that considering the character of the evidence
    amounts to an improper credibility assessment. We disagree. Although some of the same
    considerations may come into account when considering the character of the evidence and the
    credibility of witnesses, we are explicitly required to consider the evidence’s character to
    determine whether the proposed evidence “raises the probability that ‘it is more likely than not
    that no reasonable juror would have convicted him in the light of the new evidence.’ ” Edwards,
    
    2012 IL 111711
    , ¶ 24 (quoting 
    Schlup, 513 U.S. at 327
    ).
    ¶ 80   Nonetheless, even taking petitioner’s proposed evidence as true, it would be absurd to
    think that, in light of that proposed non-eyewitness testimony, there is no reasonable juror who
    would have convicted petitioner, when two other eyewitnesses inside the sub shop identified him
    as the shooter, the car involved in the offense belonged to his child’s mother, and he was seen in
    - 31 ­
    No. 1-15-0132
    that car before, during, and after the offense. We thus find that petitioner’s proposed evidence is
    not so conclusive that it is more likely than not that no reasonable juror would have found him
    guilty beyond a reasonable doubt. Sanders, 
    2016 IL 118123
    , ¶ 47.
    ¶ 81    The cases that the dissent relies on to support its position are clearly distinguishable from
    the case at bar, most importantly because the postconviction petitions in those cases were
    supported by new eyewitness testimony.
    ¶ 82    In People v. Adams, 
    2013 IL App (1st) 111081
    , the petitioner had been convicted of the
    murder of his former girlfriend, who had been beaten to death on the street in Chicago. In
    support of a successive postconviction petition, the petitioner presented affidavits from three
    individuals who claimed to have seen the beating, who said that the petitioner was not the
    perpetrator, and who either identified or described the actual perpetrator. In those circumstances,
    the proposed affidavits, if believed, directly refuted the trial testimony of witnesses who
    identified petitioner as the perpetrator, and accordingly, the new evidence “add[ed] to what was
    previously before the jury in that the jury had heard [the petitioner]’s testimony that he left the
    scene before the victim was killed, but had heard no evidence pointing to the identity of an
    alternate perpetrator.” 
    Id. ¶ 35.
    ¶ 83    In People v. Ortiz, 
    235 Ill. 2d 319
    , 322 (2009), and People v. Ortiz, 
    385 Ill. App. 3d 1
    , 2­
    4 (2008), the petitioner filed a successive postconviction petition challenging his murder
    conviction based on actual innocence. At an evidentiary hearing, the petitioner presented
    testimony from eyewitnesses who claimed to have seen the shooting and who identified other
    individuals as the shooters. Additionally, the State’s witnesses who had previously identified the
    petitioner as the shooter had recanted that testimony at trial. As the dissent notes, this court found
    that these witnesses allowed the petitioner to “attack the credibility of the State’s eyewitnesses
    - 32 ­
    No. 1-15-0132
    directly with his own eyewitnesses” instead of “rel[ying] solely on alibi testimony” 
    (Ortiz, 385 Ill. App. 3d at 13
    ), and the supreme court affirmed, finding that the new eyewitness testimony
    “supplied a first-person account of the incident that directly contradicted the prior statements of
    the two eyewitnesses for the prosecution” 
    (Ortiz, 235 Ill. 2d at 335
    ).
    ¶ 84    Unlike in Adams and Ortiz, the affidavits here are not from eyewitnesses to the offense at
    issue because the affiants did not see the shooting or who pulled the trigger. Instead, the
    proposed affidavits are from one person who saw Payton outside of the sub shop before the
    shooting and another who saw Payton picking up a gun earlier that night. These proposed
    affidavits do not “directly contradict[ ] the prior statements of the two eyewitnesses for the
    prosecution” 
    (Ortiz, 235 Ill. 2d at 335
    ), namely Thomass and Blackburn, who were the actual
    eyewitnesses to the shooting and who identified petitioner as the perpetrator. In these
    circumstances, we find Adams and Ortiz unpersuasive.
    ¶ 85    We reiterate that, by our decision, we are not making credibility determinations regarding
    the proposed evidence. We have, however, using a de novo review, examined the character of
    that evidence and determined that it is not “so conclusive that it is more likely than not that no
    reasonable juror would find him guilty beyond a reasonable doubt.” Sanders, 
    2016 IL 118123
    ,
    ¶ 47.
    ¶ 86    For all the reasons stated, we affirm the judgment of the circuit court of Cook County.
    ¶ 87    Affirmed.
    ¶ 88    JUSTICE ELLIS, dissenting.
    ¶ 89    Defendant was convicted of murder, not based on an accountability theory but on the
    allegation that he shot Robert Byrd. Two witnesses, with all their flaws, testified at trial that
    defendant was the shooter. Three witnesses have now testified through affidavits that he was
    - 33 ­
    No. 1-15-0132
    not—that instead, the shooter was defendant’s half-brother David Payton, who bears a striking
    resemblance to defendant and who would qualify as the first suspect in this case with a
    demonstrable motive to kill Byrd. The majority holds that defendant should not even be given
    leave to present this argument, to have an attorney appointed so that he can make a case for a
    third-stage evidentiary hearing on his innocence, where the credibility and strength of this
    evidence could be evaluated by a judge.
    ¶ 90   Defendant was convicted largely on the testimony of two longtime drug addicts, Walter
    Thomas and Venice Blackburn, both of whom admitted to consuming narcotics and alcohol on
    the day of the shooting and one of whom (Blackburn) admitted to being high on heroin and
    vodka at the time of the shooting. These witnesses were familiar with defendant from around the
    neighborhood but did not know him. Beyond that, the State presented evidence that defendant
    was seen, before and after the fact, in the vehicle involved in the shooting. There was no physical
    evidence tying defendant to the shooting. Defendant did not confess or make any inculpatory
    statements. And the State conceded at trial that defendant could not be positively identified from
    the sub shop’s surveillance video.
    ¶ 91   Defendant’s theory of defense, besides an alibi, was misidentification—specifically, that
    his half-brother, David Payton, was the shooter. The evidence showed that defendant and Payton
    bore a striking resemblance to each other, so much so that, at trial, Blackburn admitted that she
    could not tell the difference between the two when shown photos of each. (And so much so that
    Payton, on at least one occasion, had passed himself off as defendant when treated at a hospital.)
    ¶ 92   Since his conviction, defendant has put forward the following evidence to demonstrate
    that Payton, not he, was the shooter:
    - 34 ­
    No. 1-15-0132
    (i) Terrell Austin swore in an affidavit that Payton, not defendant, drove up to the
    sub shop, got out of the car with a gun in his hand, and entered the sub shop. After
    gunshots were fired, Payton left the sub shop, gun still in hand, and drove away in
    the Buick. Austin was a “lookout” for drug dealers—for Payton and the victim,
    Robert Byrd, who shared drug turf and each used Austin to watch out for police.
    Earlier that day, before the shooting, Austin was present when Payton and Byrd
    argued over their drug turf. After the shooting, Austin left the neighborhood,
    fearing for his safety—fearing that he would be lumped in with Payton for Byrd’s
    murder.
    (ii) Randy Norwood swore in an affidavit that, earlier that day, Payton showed up at
    an apartment and borrowed a gun from his friend because, Payton said, Robert
    Byrd was at the sub shop, and Payton wanted to scare Byrd to keep him “off his
    turf.” Norwood also viewed the restaurant’s surveillance video of the shooting
    and swore that he was “positive” that the shooter captured on the video was
    Payton, not defendant. He refused to come forward earlier out of fear, as the
    murder of Byrd had spawned what he described as an “all out war” between the
    “Payton crew” and “[Byrd] crew.”
    (iii) Martell Halbert swore, years ago, that he was in the sub shop at the time of the
    shooting, and that it was Payton, not defendant, who shot and killed Robert Byrd.
    ¶ 93   If a jury heard and accepted this evidence as true, as we must assume at this first stage, it
    is unfathomable that the jury would still convict defendant of this crime. There is simply no way
    a reasonable factfinder could believe both that (1) David Payton walked into the sub shop with a
    gun and shot Robert Byrd and (2) defendant walked into the sub shop with a gun and shot Robert
    - 35 ­
    No. 1-15-0132
    Byrd. One of those two options must be false. Because we are required to accept option (1) as
    true at this stage, option (2)—defendant’s guilt—must be false. A reasonable juror could not
    possibly convict defendant under those circumstances.
    ¶ 94   Of the three affidavits listed above, the majority would hold that the third one—the
    Martell Halbert affidavit—cannot be considered, because it was not “newly discovered” at the
    time it was offered by defendant years ago and was previously rejected by this court back then.
    But even if we limited our focus to the new information defendant has proffered in his latest
    petition—the Austin and Norwood affidavits—defendant has established a more than sufficient
    basis for advancing this case to the second stage of postconviction proceedings, to have his
    pro se claims investigated and presented to the circuit court by competent counsel.
    ¶ 95   Putting aside the contested Martell Halbert affidavit, the affidavits of Austin and
    Norwood, when taken as true, establish the following key facts. Payton and Byrd were rival drug
    dealers engaged in a turf war, including having engaged in an argument on the day of Byrd’s
    murder. Shortly before the shooting, Payton borrowed a gun from Cedric Redmond. Payton said
    that he had seen Robert Byrd at the sub shop on Cicero, and he needed the gun to scare Byrd into
    “stay[ing] off his turf.” Later, Payton drove up to the sub shop, got out of the car, and walked
    into the sub shop with the gun in his hand. After gunshots were fired, Payton left the restaurant,
    ran back to his car, and drove away. And Norwood is “positive that the man on the surveillance
    tape is David Payton.”
    ¶ 96   Neither Austin nor Norwood was inside the sub shop when Byrd was shot there, but that
    does not mean these witnesses could not identify Payton as the shooter. Norwood, as just noted,
    watched the surveillance video of the shooting inside the restaurant and positively identified
    David Payton as the shooter. And Austin narrated precisely the same sequence of events as the
    - 36 ­
    No. 1-15-0132
    State’s witnesses at trial—the shooter drove up; left the car; entered the sub shop, gun in hand;
    and ran back out to the car after the shooting stopped—except that Austin identified Payton, not
    defendant, as the actor in this story. Austin and Norwood, in short, plainly identify Payton as the
    shooter and, in doing so, exonerate defendant.
    ¶ 97   The circuit court discredited Austin’s affidavit, as does the majority, noting that Austin
    did not actually see Payton shoot Byrd—he only saw Payton enter the shop with the gun and
    later exit the shop with the gun, after the shooting. But we can see the shooting, because it was
    captured on surveillance video. And we know from that video that the same person who entered
    the restaurant with a gun in his hand proceeded to pull the trigger multiple times and kill Byrd,
    and then walk out with the gun. There was no handoff or exchange of the gun. The video does
    not tell us much, but it does tell us that one person, and one person only, walked in with the gun,
    shot Robert Byrd, and left with the gun. So when Austin swore that Payton walked in and out
    with the gun, with gunshots fired during his time inside, the only thing it could possibly mean (in
    conjunction with the video) is that Payton also shot and killed Robert Byrd—if Austin’s affidavit
    is to be believed.
    ¶ 98   And if Norwood is to be believed when he swears that he is “positive” that the shooter on
    the video is Payton, not defendant, he would be the second witness swearing under oath that the
    wrong person was convicted of this crime.
    ¶ 99   Martell Halbert, who was inside the restaurant when the shooting occurred, also swore
    that David Payton, not defendant, shot Robert Byrd, but his affidavit was previously rejected by
    this court in 2010, so the State’s and the majority’s position is that we should ignore his affidavit
    in conjunction with the two new ones we have now.
    - 37 ­
    No. 1-15-0132
    ¶ 100 We are required to accept the Austin and Norwood affidavits as true. People v. Sanders,
    
    2016 IL 118123
    , ¶ 42. If taking these allegations “as true” means anything at all, it must mean
    that a juror at a hypothetical retrial, hearing from Austin and Norwood, would believe their
    testimony—that is, would accept it “as true.” We then ask whether it is more likely than not that
    no reasonable juror, hearing and believing this new evidence, in conjunction with all the other
    evidence presented at trial, could convict defendant. People v. Edwards, 
    2012 IL 111711
    , ¶ 24.
    ¶ 101 There can only be one answer to that question: If a reasonable juror believed Austin and
    Norwood, that juror could only believe that David Payton, not defendant, shot and killed the
    victim. No reasonable juror could convict defendant in that scenario.
    ¶ 102 The majority looks at the Austin and Norwood affidavits and determines that a
    reasonable juror could still convict defendant, based on the evidence of the two intoxicated
    eyewitnesses in the restaurant and the evidence of defendant’s association with the vehicle
    involved in the crime. But that is not taking the Austin and Norwood affidavits “as true.” That
    may be taking “as true” that Norwood and Austin would testify at a hypothetical retrial
    consistent with their affidavits, but that is not taking “as true” the substance of their testimony.
    The majority does not assume that a reasonable juror would believe Austin and Norwood.
    Rather, the majority lines up the evidence from Norwood and Austin—that David Payton was
    the shooter—against the evidence from the trial implicating defendant and determines that a
    reasonable juror might not believe Austin and Norwood, in light of the other evidence.
    ¶ 103 There is simply no way that the majority’s analysis could be viewed as taking the
    substance of the Norwood and Austin affidavits “as true.” But it is hard to imagine what taking
    the affidavits as true could mean, other than assuming that the hypothetical juror would believe
    - 38 ­
    No. 1-15-0132
    the new testimony at a retrial and then analyzing what effect that new, believed evidence would
    have on the outcome.
    ¶ 104 Take, for example, the decision in Schlup v. Delo, 
    513 U.S. 298
    (1995), the case that our
    supreme court cited for the adoption of its test for first-stage successive petitions on actual-
    innocence claims. See Edwards, 
    2012 IL 111711
    , ¶ 24. Schlup was convicted of murdering
    another prison inmate. 
    Schlup, 513 U.S. at 301-02
    . The State’s case was based on testimony by
    two corrections officers who witnessed the killing. 
    Id. at 302.
    Schlup’s defense included a video
    showing him in the prison dining room, far from where the murder took place, 65 seconds before
    a distress call sounded. 
    Id. at 303.
    But there was conflicting evidence about whether the distress
    call was delayed, and thus about whether Schlup would have had enough time to get from the
    dining room to the murder scene. 
    Id. at 303-05.
    ¶ 105 In his habeas proceeding, Schlup presented new evidence that another guard saw him
    elsewhere in the prison right around the time of the murder, and statements of multiple
    eyewitnesses who swore that Schlup did not commit the crime. 
    Id. at 307-10.
    The Supreme Court
    explained, “Those new statements may, of course, be unreliable. But if they are true *** it surely
    cannot be said that a juror, conscientiously following the judge’s instructions requiring proof
    beyond a reasonable doubt, would vote to convict.” 
    Id. at 331.
    ¶ 106 The Supreme Court did not simply throw Schlup’s new evidence into the mix at a
    hypothetical retrial and ask whether a reasonable juror would believe it in light of the evidence
    from the original trial. The Supreme Court assumed that the jury in a hypothetical retrial would
    believe the new evidence—it would believe the new witnesses who said Schlup didn’t do it—and
    reasoned that, in that event, there was no way a reasonable juror could still convict Schlup,
    notwithstanding the other evidence demonstrating Schlup’s guilt.
    - 39 ­
    No. 1-15-0132
    ¶ 107 So too here. If a reasonable juror believed Austin’s and Norwood’s affidavit testimony
    that David Payton is the shooter, there is no way it could still convict defendant as the shooter,
    notwithstanding other evidence in this case suggesting defendant’s guilt.
    ¶ 108 The citation to Schlup is important here for more than one reason. First, as just stated, it
    shows how the Supreme Court interpreted the mandate to take the new evidence “as true,” which
    is not how the majority has analyzed defendant’s new affidavits. But second, it also highlights
    the difference between how Illinois analyzes successive postconviction petitions of actual-
    innocence claims versus how federal courts analyze gateway-innocence claims on habeas
    review—which also highlights the difference between the majority and this dissent.
    ¶ 109 Federal courts do more than simply ask the first question that the Supreme Court asked in
    Schlup. They go further—they make threshold determinations about the trustworthiness,
    credibility, and likely weight a reasonable juror would assign the new evidence, even without an
    evidentiary hearing. 
    Id. at 330-32.
    Look no further than the federal habeas decision concerning
    our defendant; the federal judge expressly made threshold determinations of reliability in
    rejecting defendant’s affidavits. See Brown v. Gaetz, No. 10 C 1463, 
    2015 WL 1976366
    , at * 9­
    10 (N.D. Ill. May 1, 2015).
    ¶ 110 But in Illinois, our supreme court has been clear that we do not engage in credibility or
    reliability determinations of any kind at the initial stages of a successive postconviction petition.
    Sanders, 
    2016 IL 118123
    , ¶¶ 37, 42. In Sanders, the State argued that the trial court, at the initial
    stages of a successive postconviction petition, could engage in a threshold determination of
    whether the evidence was “reliable” and whether new eyewitness accounts were “trustworthy,”
    based on language from Edwards that quoted Schlup (language that the majority here includes in
    its analysis as if it were settled law in Illinois). 
    Id. ¶ 32.
    But our supreme court emphatically
    - 40 ­
    No. 1-15-0132
    rejected that argument. 
    Id. ¶ 37.
    The court emphasized that, when it adopted the Schlup test (i.e.,
    that it is more likely than not that no reasonable juror could convict based on the newly-
    discovered evidence) in Edwards, it had not intended to adopt the federal analysis part and parcel
    and never meant to leave the door open to credibility determinations at the initial stages of a
    successive postconviction petition. 
    Id. (Which is
    why the federal habeas decision rejecting this
    defendant’s affidavits, Brown, 
    2015 WL 1976366
    , decided as it was under a different standard,
    does not collaterally estop defendant from presenting his claims to this court.)
    ¶ 111 The majority’s analysis here falls comfortably under the federal standard, but not under
    the Illinois standard. The majority holds that a reasonable juror might choose to believe the
    eyewitnesses who identified defendant at the original trial over the new affiants, who identify
    David Payton as the shooter. The majority is saying, without saying it, that a reasonable juror
    could find the original eyewitnesses more credible than defendant’s new ones, that a reasonable
    juror could place more weight on the original eyewitnesses than the new ones. At the risk of
    repetition, that is not taking the new evidence “as true.”
    ¶ 112 The trial court’s stated reason for rejecting this petition was that the new evidence was
    “directly rebutted by the record, as [defendant] was convicted based on positive eyewitness
    testimony that [defendant] was the shooter.” While it is true that newly-discovered evidence will
    not be taken as true if it is affirmatively rebutted by the record (Sanders, 
    2016 IL 118123
    , ¶ 42),
    the fact that Norwood and Austin would testify inconsistently with Thomas and Blackburn does
    not render this new testimony “rebutted” by the record. If it did, then no newly-discovered
    evidence would ever satisfy a successive postconviction hearing. Every conviction is supported
    by some evidence of guilt, and evidence of innocence, by definition, will directly or indirectly
    contradict evidence of guilt. If a contradiction between eyewitnesses were enough by itself to
    - 41 ­
    No. 1-15-0132
    derail an actual-innocence petition, our postconviction proceedings for actual-innocence claims
    would be a dead letter, something out of a Kafka novel. Contrary to the trial court’s reasoning,
    the stark contradiction between the new eyewitnesses, identifying David Payton as the shooter,
    and the old ones, implicating defendant, is not a reason to reject defendant’s claims—it is a
    reason to give them a fair and complete airing.
    ¶ 113 Schlup, discussed above, should be a clear enough example of this point. The district
    court there said what the trial court here said—that the eyewitness testimony at trial, implicating
    the defendant, rebutted the defendant’s new witness testimony demonstrating innocence. 
    Schlup, 513 U.S. at 309
    n.19. As already noted, the Supreme Court, recognizing that the “new statements
    may, of course, be unreliable,” remanded for further consideration because “if they are true,” it
    “cannot be said that a juror *** would vote to convict.” 
    Id. at 331.
    ¶ 114 As another example, in People v. Adams, 
    2013 IL App (1st) 111081
    , ¶¶ 36-38, we found
    that affidavits from two new eyewitnesses, attesting that Adams was not the perpetrator and
    either identifying or describing someone else who was, supported a colorable claim of
    innocence. Adams’s conviction, like defendant’s, was based on the testimony of two
    eyewitnesses who identified him as the perpetrator, with no physical evidence or confession to
    corroborate it. 
    Id. ¶¶ 36-38.
    In these circumstances, we reasoned, “[w]here the statement of a
    witness is both exonerating and contradicts a State witness, it can be capable of producing a
    different outcome on retrial.” 
    Id. ¶ 36.
    That is equally true here, where Austin and Norwood
    would contradict the State’s witnesses with exculpatory evidence that was not available at
    defendant’s trial.
    ¶ 115 Likewise, in People v. Ortiz, 
    385 Ill. App. 3d 1
    , 2-4 (2008), the State’s case was based on
    testimony from two witnesses who identified Ortiz as the shooter; and like defendant here,
    - 42 ­
    No. 1-15-0132
    Ortiz’s defense at trial was an alibi. At a bench trial, the State’s witnesses recanted, though the
    trial court did not find those recantations credible, and defendant was convicted. 
    Id. at 3,
    12. In a
    successive postconviction petition, new eyewitnesses came forward, attesting that Ortiz did not
    shoot the victim and positively identifying the people who did. 
    Id. at 5.
    After a third-stage
    evidentiary hearing in the successive postconviction proceeding, the trial court denied the
    petition. We reversed and remanded for a new trial, because the new eyewitnesses contradicted
    the original inculpatory testimony of the State’s witnesses. 
    Id. at 12.
    Among other reasons, we
    found that the evidence in favor of Ortiz’s innocence would be much stronger on retrial, and the
    evidence of his guilt would be much weaker, because he could “attack the credibility of the
    State’s eyewitnesses directly with his own eyewitnesses” instead of “rel[ying] solely on alibi
    testimony.” 
    Id. at 13.
    ¶ 116 Our supreme court affirmed. Noting that the new eyewitness testimony “supplied a first-
    person account of the incident that directly contradicted the prior statements of the two
    eyewitnesses for the prosecution,” and recalling that “[n]o physical evidence linked defendant to
    the murder,” the supreme court reasoned that “the evidence of defendant’s innocence would be
    stronger when weighed against the recanted statements of the State’s eyewitnesses.” People v.
    Ortiz, 
    235 Ill. 2d 319
    , 335, 337 (2009).
    ¶ 117 Likewise, here, defendant would no longer have to rely solely on Jefferson’s alibi
    testimony, because Austin and Norwood would identify Payton as the shooter, directly
    contradicting the eyewitness testimony implicating defendant. It is hard to understand how our
    supreme court would grant Ortiz a new trial, yet we deny defendant here a chance to merely file
    his petition, when each petitioner’s new witnesses would bolster the defense case in essentially
    the same way.
    - 43 ­
    No. 1-15-0132
    ¶ 118 In addition to identifying Payton as the shooter, Austin and Norwood would also testify
    that Payton had a plausible motive to shoot Byrd: the two rival heroin dealers were feuding over
    drug turf. At trial, the State did not offer any explanation for the shooting or any evidence that
    defendant had a reason to shoot Byrd. Of course, motive is not an element of the State’s case, but
    it is at least worth noting that on retrial, the only plausible account of why Byrd was shot in the
    first place would come from the defense, and it would point squarely toward Payton as the
    shooter.
    ¶ 119 To be sure, the State presented evidence linking defendant to the car that the shooter
    drove to and from the sub shop. Thomas identified that car as a red Buick that belonged to Iesha
    Rials, the mother of defendant’s child. In his pretrial statement to prosecutors, Corey Gilmore
    said that, as he left the sub shop prior to the shooting, he saw defendant drive up, alone, in the
    same car. Gilmore and defendant talked for a few minutes in front of the shop; defendant then
    drove away, and Gilmore went to a strip club. Defendant did not mention Byrd, and Gilmore did
    not see a gun in the car. Kevin Tenard testified that defendant drove up to Rials’s house in a red
    car, not long after the shooting, and gave him the keys to return to Rials.
    ¶ 120 No doubt, this is circumstantial evidence of defendant’s guilt. But if we assume that a
    rational trier of fact will believe the witnesses who implicate Payton as the shooter (which we
    must, if we take their affidavits as true at this stage), the State’s case boils down to the evidence
    provided by Gilmore and Tenard that defendant was seen driving Rials’s car shortly before and
    shortly after the shooting. Assuming that Gilmore and Tenard reliably identified defendant, that
    evidence might support an inference that defendant was accountable for the shooting—either by
    casing the scene or by providing a getaway car for the shooter.
    - 44 ­
    No. 1-15-0132
    ¶ 121 But the State’s theory of guilt was not accountability; the State charged defendant as the
    shooter. Had defendant been convicted under an accountability theory, the majority’s citation to
    Edwards, 
    2012 IL 111711
    , might be more persuasive. There, defendant was convicted of murder
    under an accountability theory. The new postconviction affidavit claimed that the petitioner
    “ ‘had nothing to do with’ ” the shooting but did not assert “that petitioner was not present when
    the shooting took place,” and thus the defendant still could have been culpable under an
    accountability theory. (Emphasis in original.) 
    Id. ¶¶ 10,
    39. The new evidence was not likely to
    change the outcome.
    ¶ 122 But here, given the State’s direct-shooter theory, and the new, direct evidence implicating
    Payton as the shooter that we must take as true and reliable, I would have no “confidence in the
    factual correctness of [a] guilty verdict” (People v. Coleman, 
    2013 IL 113307
    , ¶ 97) based
    entirely on the circumstantial evidence that placed defendant in Rials’s car before and after, but
    not at the time of, the shooting.
    ¶ 123 Understandably, the first stage of a successive postconviction procedure on an actual-
    innocence claim is designed to screen out petitions that will obviously fail before expending
    further judicial resources on them. Courts dismiss successive postconviction petitions when the
    new evidence presented is not new at all—it was or should have been known to the defendant
    earlier, or it may come from a new source but is cumulative to something the trier of fact already
    heard at the original trial. See 
    Ortiz, 235 Ill. 2d at 335
    . If a defendant can continually raise and
    re-raise the same evidence, or essentially the same evidence with a different coat of paint, our
    system would drown in “ ‘piecemeal post-conviction litigation.’ ” 
    Id. at 332
    (quoting People v.
    Tenner, 
    206 Ill. 2d 381
    , 398 (2002)); see also People v. Davis, 
    2014 IL 115595
    , ¶ 14 (noting that
    “successive petitions impede the finality of criminal litigation”).
    - 45 ­
    No. 1-15-0132
    ¶ 124 And once a defendant establishes that the evidence is new and noncumulative, the first
    stage is further designed to screen out cases that are so deficient that we can be confident that an
    evidentiary hearing on the new evidence is unnecessary. Unnecessary, because even if the
    evidence is true, it is not conclusive—it does not directly negate the evidence of guilt and, thus,
    would not likely change the outcome of a retrial. See, e.g., People v. Smith, 
    177 Ill. 2d 53
    , 83
    (1997) (new evidence merely served to impeach main witness and was “insufficient to warrant a
    new trial”). Or unnecessary, because we know conclusively that the new evidence is not true, as
    it is positively rebutted by the record. See, e.g., Sanders, 
    2016 IL 118123
    , ¶ 48 (witness’s new
    claim that he shot victim once, in back of head, was positively rebutted by trial record, where
    pathologist demonstrated victim was shot twice in back of head and died of “multiple gunshot
    wounds”).
    ¶ 125 That procedure, as interpreted by our supreme court, separates those petitions that afford
    a defendant no meaningful chance of success from those that bear further scrutiny—not a new
    trial, not even an evidentiary hearing, but merely the appointment of a lawyer to help the
    defendant make the case for an evidentiary hearing.
    ¶ 126 This case is not one that should be screened out before determining the truth of the
    factual allegations by Austin and Norwood. There is nothing cumulative or collateral about
    defendant’s new evidence. It speaks directly to whether defendant did or did not shoot Robert
    Byrd. And there is nothing in the record that affirmatively rebuts what Austin and Norwood are
    saying.
    ¶ 127 I have no idea if defendant is actually innocent. Neither does the majority. That is not the
    point. The point is that Austin and Norwood swear that he is. If they are telling the truth, the
    wrong man is in prison. If they are not, then let’s find that out—let a judge hear from them and
    - 46 ­
    No. 1-15-0132
    decide if their testimony is credible. Then we will know the answer, as best we can in our
    adversarial system. But we should not close the courtroom door to defendant without even trying
    to learn that answer.
    - 47 ­