People v. Nelson , 2020 IL App (1st) 151960 ( 2021 )


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    Appellate Court
    People v. Nelson, 
    2020 IL App (1st) 151960
    Appellate Court    THE PEOPLE OF THE STATE OF ILLINOIS, Plaintiff-Appellee, v.
    Caption            GERALD NELSON, Defendant-Appellant.
    District & No.     First District, Third Division
    No. 1-15-1960
    Filed              March 31, 2020
    Decision Under     Appeal from the Circuit Court of Cook County, No. 06-CR-25136; the
    Review             Hon. Allen F. Murphy, Judge, presiding.
    Judgment           Reversed and remanded.
    Counsel on         James E. Chadd, Patricia Mysza, and S. Emily Hartman, of State
    Appeal             Appellate Defender’s Office, of Chicago, for appellant.
    Kimberly M. Foxx, State’s Attorney, of Chicago (Alan J. Spellberg
    and Marci Jacobs, Assistant State’s Attorneys, of counsel), for the
    People.
    Panel              PRESIDING JUSTICE ELLIS delivered the judgment of the court,
    with opinion.
    Justices McBride and Cobbs concurred in the judgment and opinion.
    OPINION
    ¶1       In January 2001, seven-month-old Gerelle Nelson suffered a catastrophic neurological
    collapse. The attending pediatricians concluded that he must have been violently shaken by the
    caregiver who was with him at the onset of his symptoms. Confronted with this classic
    diagnosis of “shaken baby syndrome” (the forerunner of “abusive head trauma”), Gerelle’s
    father, defendant Gerald Nelson, confessed that he shook Gerelle—not in malice but in
    frustration—when Gerelle would not stop crying.
    ¶2       Defendant pleaded guilty to aggravated battery of a child. As the charge implies, Gerelle
    had survived the trauma. But his injuries and resulting motor deficits were profound and largely
    irreversible. Gerelle suffered from spastic quadriplegic cerebral palsy.
    ¶3       In April 2006—more than five years after he sustained his injuries, and while defendant
    was in prison—Gerelle was found facedown in a pillow. He had suffocated to death. As for
    how Gerelle wound up in these fateful circumstances, an event no witness claimed to see, the
    State took the position that he must have rolled over while sleeping.
    ¶4       The State charged defendant with Gerelle’s murder. On the issue of causation, the State’s
    theory was that defendant’s conduct over five years earlier of shaking the baby caused the
    injuries that left Gerelle unable to lift his head from the pillow and thus vulnerable to
    suffocation, in what would have been fairly benign circumstances for a normally developed
    near-six-year-old child. In this way, defendant’s conduct was a contributing cause of Gerelle’s
    death.
    ¶5       A key defense argument at trial was that the State’s own evidence gave rise to a question
    of supervening causation. Specifically, the State’s theory of how Gerelle wound up in this
    compromised position—he rolled over in his sleep—was contradicted by his mother’s
    testimony that he was unable to roll over (or walk, or crawl, or sit up) on his own. Thus, the
    State now had to prove, beyond a reasonable doubt, that no supervening cause was responsible
    for Gerelle’s tragic death. And the State failed to carry that burden. Or so the defense argued.
    ¶6       On appeal, defendant argues (among other things) that the trial court misunderstood the
    law of supervening causation. We agree. In our view, what the trial court failed to grasp was
    precisely the point that defense counsel tried to hammer home during closing argument: that it
    was the State’s burden to prove the absence of a supervening cause of death beyond a
    reasonable doubt. Our review of the record convinces us that this error was not harmless. We
    reverse and remand for a new trial.
    ¶7                                       BACKGROUND
    ¶8                                                I
    ¶9       In late January 2001, Gerelle Nelson was a seemingly healthy seven-month-old baby. He
    lived in Sauk Village with his father, defendant Gerald Nelson; his mother, Belinda Michelle
    Nelson (following the parties’ general practice in the trial court, we will call her Michelle);
    and his half-sister, Brianna Simpson, Michelle’s daughter from a past relationship. Michelle
    worked day shifts, and defendant worked night shifts. They divided responsibility for Gerelle’s
    care accordingly, leaving him in the care of six-year-old Brianna, for a time, when Michelle
    would have to leave for work in the morning before defendant returned home.
    -2-
    ¶ 10       Such were the circumstances on the morning of January 29, 2001. Michelle left for work
    around 6:30 a.m. Gerelle was asleep in his crib. Defendant came home from work about an
    hour later, took Brianna to school, shoveled the driveway, and went inside to change Gerelle’s
    diaper. Around 9:30 a.m., he called 911 to report that Gerelle was not breathing. The first
    responders found defendant holding a listless Gerelle in his arms. They revived Gerelle with
    cardiopulmonary resuscitation and took him to St. Margaret Mercy Hospital in Indiana.
    ¶ 11       Defendant initially told the police, in sum, that he woke Gerelle and put him down on the
    floor to change his diaper. The phone rang, and defendant left Gerelle’s room to answer it. In
    the kitchen, defendant decided not to take the call after all; instead, he prepared a bottle and a
    bowl of baby cereal for Gerelle. But all the while, Gerelle had been crying, so defendant went
    back to check on him. He found Gerelle with a plastic bag over his face. Defendant had put
    that bag on the floor, alongside the other supplies for changing Gerelle, to use as a receptacle
    for the dirty diaper. Defendant took the bag off Gerelle’s face and saw that he was not
    breathing. Defendant tried to revive him for about 15 minutes, to no avail, and then called 911.
    ¶ 12       While Gerelle was being treated in the hospital, the police investigated the scene. On the
    floor in Gerelle’s room, they found a fresh diaper and clothing, wipes and baby powder, and a
    plastic bag with “some kind of substance spot” on it that looked like saliva. (There is no
    evidence that the substance was ever tested.) In the kitchen, they found a prepared bottle of
    formula and a cup of baby cereal. The caller identification showed that the last incoming call
    was received at 9:21 a.m. Defendant’s 911 call was received at 9:37 a.m., 16 minutes later.
    ¶ 13       Dr. Troy Shaffer, an emergency physician at St. Margaret Mercy Hospital, treated Gerelle
    for hypoxia and acute respiratory failure. This diagnosis was based on the history conveyed by
    defendant and on Gerelle’s presenting symptoms—minimal spontaneous respirations and a
    need for mechanical ventilation, unreactive pupils, and a lack of purposeful movements. In
    short, he was unresponsive but with no external signs of trauma. Of particular concern,
    however, was his decerebrate posturing, meaning that his muscles were locked in a position
    that could indicate a severe brain injury. Dr. Shaffer recognized that Gerelle would need a
    higher level of care than a local hospital could provide. When Gerelle was stabilized—that is,
    in critical condition but likely to survive transport—he was taken by ambulance to Children’s
    Memorial Hospital in Chicago.
    ¶ 14       There, Gerelle was examined and treated by an interdisciplinary team of physicians, led by
    Dr. Amy Goldberg, a fellow in child abuse pediatrics working under the supervision of Dr.
    Emily Flaherty. Between January 29 and February 1, 2001, the team performed a battery of
    neurological, ophthalmic, radiological, and other tests on Gerelle. Many of the salient findings
    were presented at defendant’s trial, in extensive, often technical, and sometimes contested
    expert testimony. Suffice it to say, for our purposes here, that those findings included a parietal
    fracture in Gerelle’s skull, a subdural hematoma, and bilateral cerebral and retinal
    hemorrhaging.
    ¶ 15       These injuries, Dr. Goldberg and the other treating physicians believed, could not be
    explained by a hypoxic event like suffocating on a plastic bag. After considering and ruling
    out several differential diagnoses, they concluded that Gerelle had “shaken baby syndrome,”
    the prevailing diagnosis of exclusion at the time.
    ¶ 16       On February 1, 2001, Dr. Goldberg told Detective Cates that Gerelle’s injuries were the
    result of being shaken. Detective Cates confronted defendant about Gerelle’s skull fracture and
    retinal hemorrhaging. Defendant held fast to his account of events. He denied that he shook
    -3-
    Gerelle and insisted that he would never intentionally hurt his son. But he could not explain
    how Gerelle’s skull was fractured. Defendant was taken into custody. Later that day, he agreed
    to give a written statement.
    ¶ 17       Defendant said in his statement that Gerelle would not stop crying. While changing his
    diaper, defendant lifted him by the arms and shook him back and forth for 30 seconds. Gerelle’s
    eyes rolled back in his head, and he stopped breathing. Defendant tried at first to resuscitate
    Gerelle and then called 911 after his efforts were unsuccessful. He never meant to hurt Gerelle
    and was sorry for shaking him so hard. Defendant also said that he lied about finding a plastic
    bag over Gerelle’s face because he was scared.
    ¶ 18       More than four years later, on August 15, 2005, defendant pleaded guilty to aggravated
    battery of a child. The stipulated factual basis of the plea, which was admitted into evidence at
    defendant’s murder trial, stated that defendant “admitted that he was watching the baby alone,
    the baby was crying. He was frustrated, he shook the baby for approximately 30 seconds, and
    the baby’s eyes rolled back in its head.”
    ¶ 19       While the aggravated battery case was pending, the judge concluded that he “didn’t see
    [defendant] as a threat” and thus allowed him supervised visitation with Gerelle and Michelle.
    This ongoing “family structure” and other substantial mitigating factors convinced the judge
    to impose the minimum prison sentence of six years.
    ¶ 20                                                 II
    ¶ 21       Meanwhile, Gerelle had been diagnosed with cerebral palsy as a result of his injuries. In
    mid-February 2001, he was discharged from Children’s Memorial Hospital into the care of Dr.
    Charles Sisung at the Rehabilitation Institute of Chicago. After Gerelle returned home with his
    mother, Dr. Sisung continued to provide outpatient therapy to Gerelle.
    ¶ 22       In his stipulated testimony, Dr. Sisung stated that Gerelle suffered from quadriplegia,
    muscle spasticity and contracture, seizures, and very limited motor control and cognitive
    function. Dr. Sisung last saw Gerelle in March 2006. He was at his “most improved state” at
    that time, but he still “lacked significant motor control and had decreased mobility.” He could
    not walk or crawl on his own, but he could hold a toy in his right hand. Dr. Sisung prescribed
    muscle relaxers for Gerelle’s spasticity. Another physician prescribed seizure medication.
    ¶ 23       Michelle elaborated in her testimony on Gerelle’s physical and intellectual abilities. In
    early 2006, as he approached his sixth birthday, Gerelle could not walk, crawl, or even sit up
    on his own. He was limited in what he could do with his arms or legs. He could express himself
    through sounds but otherwise had a minimal vocabulary. Michelle described Gerelle’s seizures
    as mild and not violent: Gerelle would “extend his arms out a little bit and just retract them
    back. And his eyes would roll back a little bit.” In any event, Gerelle was no longer taking
    seizure medication, but he was still taking the muscle relaxers prescribed by Dr. Sisung for
    spasticity.
    ¶ 24       Gerelle was also prescribed braces for his arms and legs. Dr. Scott Denton, the medical
    examiner who conducted Gerelle’s autopsy, described the leg braces as orthopedic braces used
    to prevent flexure contractures of the legs. They consisted of a pair of inner braces, worn day
    and night, each running the length of one leg and helping to keep that leg straight, and one
    outer foam brace, worn only at night, that wrapped around both legs and bound them tightly
    together, further restricting any movement. Dr. Denton explained that the purpose of the
    -4-
    braces, and of keeping Gerelle’s legs straight, was to prevent additional muscle atrophy, which
    would have further dimmed Gerelle’s prospects for recovering some use of his limbs.
    ¶ 25       Michelle described the arm braces as foam braces that went around the elbow, with a steel
    plate inside. Gerelle’s arms were typically locked at 90-degree angles, and the braces were
    meant to straighten his arms and prevent him from putting his hands in his mouth. Unlike the
    leg braces, the arm braces are not depicted in any of the autopsy or crime-scene photos.
    ¶ 26       Defense counsel asked Michelle, “When [Gerelle] had those leg braces and arm braces on,
    did he have the ability to roll over in any way,” and “Did you ever see him with the ability to
    roll over when he had those braces on?” Both times, Michelle answered “no.”
    ¶ 27       It was against this backdrop that Michelle put Gerelle to bed on April 22, 2006. Michelle
    had recently purchased a wood-framed bed for Gerelle, which she described as a “toddler bed,”
    but she had not yet assembled it. Michelle initially testified, on direct examination, that she
    was not sure whether she “had any bed rails” for it. On cross-examination, she testified that
    the bed came with rails but they were still in the box and that the function of the rails, when
    installed on the side of the bed, was to keep anyone in the bed from rolling off. Instead of the
    bed rails, Michelle put a large body pillow next to the bed. That way, she said, “If [Gerelle]
    did scoot out of the bed, so it would brace his fall so he wouldn’t hurt himself.”
    ¶ 28       Michelle testified that she put Gerelle to bed around 8 p.m. She gave him his muscle
    relaxer, put his arm and leg braces on, and laid him on his back, in the center of the bed. She
    returned to check on him the next day, sometime around 10 a.m., she thought—or so she
    testified. The timing of her daughter’s 911 call suggested that she checked on Gerelle closer to
    noon, or about 16 hours after she had put him to bed.
    ¶ 29         Michelle found Gerelle “[f]ace down on the pillow” next to the bed. She could not recall
    where his legs were, but she “assume[d]” they were “on the side of him like alongside the bed.”
    And she described his body as “just kind of layed [sic] on the side.” His body was cold.
    Michelle screamed, pulled him up, and set him down again on the bed. The rest was a “blur,”
    as Michelle described herself as a “wreck” at the time.
    ¶ 30       Michelle surmised that Brianna must have called 911 after hearing her scream. That call
    was received at 12:27 p.m. Then-sergeant Rebecca Sailsbery was the first to respond. Brianna,
    then around 11 years old, showed her to Gerelle’s bedroom, where Michelle was sitting on the
    bed, next to Gerelle, and crying.
    ¶ 31       Gerelle was on his back and wearing a leg brace. His body was cold, he had no pulse, and
    he did not appear to be breathing. His arms—as also depicted in the crime-scene photos—were
    raised, stiff, and locked in a flexed position. He was not wearing his arm braces.
    ¶ 32       The crime-scene photos also depict Gerelle’s mattress. It is evidently an adult-sized (most
    likely a full-size) mattress, laid on the floor, without bed rails or a frame. There is a pillow
    centered at the head of the mattress, in the usual place, for Gerelle’s head. One side of the
    mattress is pushed against the wall; the other side has a large pillow, made of velour or some
    similar material, abutting it. The autopsy report lists its dimensions as 37 by 14 by 11 inches.
    ¶ 33       One spot in the pillow caught Sgt. Sailsbery’s attention because it looked “different than
    the rest.” It was an “oval” indentation, in “[t]he shape of a mouth,” with an apparent
    “substance” on it. Dr. Denton, who examined the pillow at Gerelle’s autopsy, described the
    “substance” as dried mucus, saliva, or fluid (of some sort) that accompanied an “impression
    -5-
    mark of someone’s face.” The crime-scene photos depict the oval; no other indentations on the
    pillow are evident.
    ¶ 34       Gerelle’s autopsy revealed no bed sores or similar evidence of neglect in his care. Dr.
    Denton testified that Gerelle died with his elbows flexed and locked in the “abnormal position”
    already described, and with his fingers tightly clenched. This position could have been the
    result of his muscle atrophy and, thus, the typical position of his arms, or if his arms were not
    usually in this position, it could have resulted from a seizure or asphyxia. Gerelle was tested
    for traces of his prescribed muscle relaxer; the autopsy report, which was received into
    evidence, indicates that none were detected.
    ¶ 35       Based on his physical findings alone, Dr. Denton explained, it would have been “very
    difficult” to determine the cause of Gerelle’s death. For that purpose, he had to rely heavily on
    “history and context,” especially Michelle’s statements to investigators about the
    circumstances in which Gerelle’s body was found.
    ¶ 36       As conveyed to Dr. Denton, Michelle told investigators that Gerelle was “face down” and
    “off the edge of a bed on [a] body pillow that was next to the bed.” Dr. Denton inferred that
    Gerelle was “at an angle with his face in [the] area” of the pillow that had an impression and
    dried fluid. In other words, he must have been “face down with basically the contact of his
    face, mouth and nose against the body pillow and his legs were up on the bed which were in a
    brace.”
    ¶ 37       Based on these circumstances and physical findings, Dr. Denton ruled that the immediate
    cause of death was positional asphyxia: Gerelle suffocated to death in the pillow. But a child
    of Gerelle’s age could normally “roll over” and remove his face from a pillow to avoid
    suffocating. Dr. Denton thus inquired as to “what would cause [Gerelle] to go from the bed to
    being in this compromised position where he can’t free himself or breathe.”
    ¶ 38       In the first instance, Dr. Denton concluded, Gerelle could not free himself from the body
    pillow because his legs were locked in place by his braces: “So if the history is he’s sleeping
    and these are used at night and he rolls off the bed and he would be fixed with this device on
    his legs, he could not extricate himself from that position.”
    ¶ 39       Dr. Denton then took the cause-of-death inquiry one step further. The autopsy revealed that
    Gerelle had sustained significant “older injuries” to his brain, which themselves required an
    explanation; that explanation, in turn, might help to explain his lack of mobility and resulting
    vulnerability to suffocation in these circumstances.
    ¶ 40       To this end, Dr. Denton removed and examined Gerelle’s brain in collaboration with a
    neuropathologist. He also reviewed Gerelle’s extensive medical history, including the findings
    made by Dr. Goldberg’s team in the days immediately following Gerelle’s neurological
    collapse. In sum, Dr. Denton concurred that Gerelle’s old injuries were not consistent with
    asphyxia alone but rather were the result of “rotational acceleration injury”—often said to be
    the telltale sign of a shaken baby—and accompanying “blunt head trauma.”
    ¶ 41       The complete cause of death was thus a “series.” First, Gerelle died of asphyxia because
    he was in a “compromised position.” Second, that compromised position was the result of his
    old cerebral injuries. Although Dr. Denton did not make this point explicitly, his testimony
    implied that Gerelle’s cerebral injuries resulted in his compromised position in two (related)
    ways: by directly causing his lack of motor control and by requiring him to sleep in leg braces
    -6-
    that further restricted his mobility. Third, and finally, Gerelle’s cerebral injuries were the result
    of the head trauma he sustained in 2001.
    ¶ 42       Dr. Denton thus ruled Gerelle’s death a homicide—that is, a homicide by the person who
    had caused Gerelle’s head trauma. Based on this theory of causation and defendant’s admission
    that he shook Gerelle, the State charged him with intentional and strong-probability murder.
    See 720 ILCS 5/9-1(a)(1)-(2) (West 2006).
    ¶ 43       Defendant was convicted of those charges after a bench trial in 2015, 14 years after
    Gerelle’s injuries, and sentenced to 25 years in prison, with credit for the sentence he had
    served on his aggravated-battery plea.
    ¶ 44                                             ANALYSIS
    ¶ 45                                                  I
    ¶ 46       Defendant claims that the trial court misunderstood the law of supervening causation, one
    of the principal theories of defense presented at trial. In particular, he says, the court’s remarks
    on this issue, in ruling on his posttrial motion, rebut the usual presumption that the trial court
    understood the law. And that error, he says, deprived him of a fair trial.
    ¶ 47                                                  A
    ¶ 48        The due process clause requires the State to prove, beyond a reasonable doubt, every
    element included in the definition of the charged offense. In re Winship, 
    397 U.S. 358
    , 364
    (1970); Patterson v. New York, 
    432 U.S. 197
    , 210 (1977). One element of first degree murder
    is causation. 720 ILCS 5/9-1(a) (West 2006) (“[a] person who kills an individual *** commits
    first degree murder if, in performing the acts which cause the death”). And necessarily so: since
    liability for this offense arises from a prohibited result, the victim’s death, the offense
    inherently requires a causal link between that result and the defendant’s (or an accomplice’s)
    conduct. People v. Nere, 
    2018 IL 122566
    , ¶ 31 (citing 1 Wayne R. LaFave, Substantive
    Criminal Law § 6.4, at 628 (3d ed. 2018)).
    ¶ 49        The causation element of murder has two basic components: cause-in-fact and legal, or
    proximate, causation. Id. For intentional and strong-probability murder (we leave aside felony
    murder, which is a somewhat different matter), our supreme court has articulated these basic
    components of causation as follows.
    ¶ 50        First, a defendant’s conduct is a cause-in-fact if it was a contributing factor in, but not
    necessarily the sole or immediate cause of, the victim’s death. Id. ¶¶ 31-33; People v. Brackett,
    
    117 Ill. 2d 170
    , 176 (1987). Suppose, for example, that a victim dies of direct complications
    of injuries caused by the defendant’s attack. Those complications are the immediate cause of
    death. But the defendant’s conduct in injuring the victim was also a contributing factor in, and
    thus a cause-in-fact of, the death. See, e.g., People v. Amigon, 
    239 Ill. 2d 71
    , 77-80 (2010)
    (victim, quadriplegic as result of shooting, caught ordinary, usually nonthreatening respiratory
    infection and died of pneumonia, a common complication of quadriplegia); Brackett, 
    117 Ill. 2d at 177-78
     (attack left elderly defendant unable to accept feeding tube, swallow, or expel
    food from her trachea, resulting in her choking death when medical personnel tried to orally
    feed her).
    ¶ 51        Second, a contributing cause of the victim’s death is often—indeed, usually—a proximate
    or legal cause of death, too. See Amigon, 
    239 Ill. 2d at 77-80
    ; Brackett, 
    117 Ill. 2d at 176-78
    .
    -7-
    But not always or necessarily. Even if a defendant causes potentially fatal injuries, the victim’s
    death must “ ‘occur in a manner enough similar to’ ” the “ ‘manner which the defendant
    intended’ ” for the defendant’s conduct to count as the legal cause of the death. Nere, 
    2018 IL 122566
    , ¶ 31. And the question is ultimately one of fairness: The causal link between the
    defendant’s conduct and the victim’s death must be sufficiently close “ ‘that the defendant may
    fairly be held responsible for the actual result.’ ” (Emphasis added.) 
    Id.
     (quoting 1 Wayne R.
    LaFave, Substantive Criminal Law § 6.4(a), at 630-31 (3d ed. 2018)).
    ¶ 52       Thus, if some new causal factor, “ ‘completely unrelated to’ ” or unconnected with the
    defendant’s conduct, intervenes and brings about the victim’s death, that new factor will
    “relieve the defendant of criminal responsibility” for the death, notwithstanding the
    defendant’s original infliction of potentially fatal injuries. People v. Domagala, 
    2013 IL 113688
    , ¶ 39; Brackett, 
    117 Ill. 2d at 176
    ; Illinois Pattern Jury Instructions, Criminal, No. 7.15
    (4th ed. Supp. 2011) (hereinafter IPI Criminal 4th (Supp. 2011)). A third party’s gross
    negligence toward, or intentional “maltreatment” of, the victim are two (among other)
    examples of this kind of supervening, intervening, or superseding cause. Domagala, 
    2013 IL 113688
    , ¶ 39.
    ¶ 53       As an aside, we do not accept the State’s assertion that only gross medical negligence can
    count as a supervening cause. While the cases cited all involve allegations of gross medical
    negligence, we are not aware of any case that expressly limits gross negligence, as a category
    of supervening cause, to “medical providers.” Nor do see any reason in principle for that
    limitation. Anyone who owes a duty of care can be grossly negligent in performing that duty
    and therefore can, in principle, be a supervening cause of another’s death.
    ¶ 54       We will have more to say about supervening causation, but for now, the point we need to
    bring into focus is this: Because the absence of a supervening cause of death is one aspect of
    the causation element of the offense, as our supreme court has interpreted it, the burden of
    proof on this issue lies with the State, as a matter of due process. Patterson, 
    432 U.S. at 210
    .
    ¶ 55       IPI Criminal 4th (Supp. 2011) No. 7.15, the pattern instruction on the issue of “Causation
    In Homicide Cases Excluding Felony Murder,” states this burden explicitly. The instruction
    provides that “the State must prove beyond a reasonable doubt that defendant’s acts were a
    contributing cause of the death and that the death did not result from a cause unconnected with
    the defendant.” (Emphasis added.) 
    Id.
    ¶ 56       We acknowledge our supreme court’s statements, repeated most recently in People v.
    Staake, 
    2017 IL 121755
    , ¶ 53, that, once the defendant’s conduct is proven to be a “sufficient
    cause,” the victim’s death “is presumed to have resulted” from that conduct. Or what comes to
    the same: If the defendant’s conduct was a contributing cause of the victim’s death, it is
    “presumed” to be a legal or proximate cause.
    ¶ 57       But that cannot mean, as the State would have it, that the defendant bears the burden of
    “rebutting” this “presumption,” in the sense of having to prove that there was a supervening
    cause of the victim’s death. As far as we can tell, from the cases cited in the briefs and our own
    research, our supreme court has never held that.
    ¶ 58       And with good reason. As the Criminal Code of 1961 (Criminal Code) (720 ILCS 5/1-1
    et seq. (West 2006)) stands, the absence of a supervening cause is part of an element of the
    crime of murder, and due process thus requires the burden of proof—more precisely, the
    burden of persuasion and the burden of production—to lie with the State; it cannot be shifted
    onto the defendant, by means of a rebuttable presumption or otherwise. Sandstrom v. Montana,
    -8-
    
    442 U.S. 510
    , 523-24 (1979) (rebuttable presumption that shifts burden of persuasion onto
    defendant on element of offense violates due process); People v. Watts, 
    181 Ill. 2d 133
    , 147
    (1998) (rebuttable presumption that shifts burden of production onto defendant on element of
    offense violates due process); see also Patterson, 
    432 U.S. at 210
    ; Mullaney v. Wilbur, 
    421 U.S. 684
    , 691-702 (1975) (where malice was element of murder statute, defendant could not
    be required to rebut presumption that the killing was with malice); People v. Jeffries, 
    164 Ill. 2d 104
    , 114 (1995) (“A defendant’s due process rights are violated when the burden shifts to
    the defendant to disprove an element of the offense.”).
    ¶ 59        And for what it is worth, even if supervening causation was carved out of the causation
    element and treated as an affirmative defense to murder—which it is not—the burden of proof
    would remain with the State under section 3-2 of the Criminal Code, which holds the State to
    the burden of proof even on an affirmative defense (besides insanity). 720 ILCS 5/3-2 (West
    2006); People v. Hari, 
    218 Ill. 2d 275
    , 297 (2006). One way or the other, the burden of proof
    on this issue will always lie with the State, at least in Illinois.
    ¶ 60        The State cites People v. Mars, 
    2012 IL App (2d) 110695
    , ¶ 17, where the court cast this
    “presumption” in the following terms: “Once the State establishes a sufficient legal proximate
    cause of death through an act for which the defendant is responsible, a presumption arises that
    the death resulted from the culpable act of the defendant.” And this “presumption,” the court
    added, “then must be rebutted by the defendant’s presentation of contrary evidence that the
    sole cause of death was” the supervening cause. (Emphasis in original.) 
    Id.
    ¶ 61        It is not clear that these passages from Mars mean what the State says they mean, that the
    “presumption” places the burden on the defendant to prove the existence of a supervening
    cause of death. In any event, that interpretation of Mars, for the reasons we have explained, is
    inconsistent with settled principles of due process; the burden of proof never shifts to the
    defendant on the question of supervening cause. If the State is correctly reading Mars, we
    respectfully disagree with that decision on this point.
    ¶ 62        When we talk about a “presumption” in the context of supervening causation, we are not
    talking about a shifting of the burden of proof to the defendant. The only thing we mean—the
    only thing we constitutionally could mean—is this: Unless there was a supervening cause, a
    contributing cause of the victim’s death is presumed to also be a legal or proximate cause, and
    it is therefore sufficient to establish causation under the first degree murder statute.
    ¶ 63        This “presumption,” in short, is a principle of liability. If there is no issue as to supervening
    causation (there usually is not), causation is proven if contributing causation is proven. But in
    those rare cases where supervening cause is an issue, the trier of fact may not convict a
    defendant unless it also finds that the State has proven, beyond a reasonable doubt, that there
    was no supervening cause of death. IPI Criminal 4th (Supp. 2011) No. 7.15; see also IPI
    Criminal 4th (Supp. 2011) No. 7.15, Committee Note (give instruction where “causation is an
    issue”); People v. Pinkney, 
    322 Ill. App. 3d 707
    , 718 (2000) (instruction should be given where
    supervening causation “is argued by the defense”).
    ¶ 64        With this preliminary but critical point in mind, we turn next to the parties’ presentations
    of their theories in closing arguments.
    -9-
    ¶ 65                                                    B
    ¶ 66       Relying principally on our supreme court’s decision in Brackett, 
    117 Ill. 2d 170
    , the State
    argued that the sum total of its burden, on the issue of causation, was to prove that defendant’s
    conduct “contributed to” Gerelle’s death. And his conduct did, the State argued, because it
    “set[ ] in motion the chain of events” that culminated in Gerelle’s death, five years later, when
    he “rolled off the bed” and “landed face down in a pillow,” unable to right himself because of
    the injuries defendant had caused. In other words, if defendant shook Gerelle (as he admitted
    he did), and if the shaking caused his neurological injuries and associated motor deficits (as
    the State took Dr. Goldberg’s testimony to establish), then there was “sufficient proof of
    causation” for a murder conviction.
    ¶ 67       The defense returned to a theme it had sketched in its opening statement: that some of the
    evidence to be adduced “will go to cause of death,” specifically, “to supervening cause of
    death.” Elaborating on this theme in its closing argument, the defense homed in on the question
    of how Gerelle wound up facedown in the body pillow. Very little was known about this tragic
    event. There was no eyewitness account. And one cannot “assume,” as the State maintained,
    that Gerelle somehow “rolled off the bed” of his own volition.
    ¶ 68       That hypothesis, the defense argued, did not square with Michelle’s testimony that he could
    not roll over at all, at least not when he was wearing his braces. More generally, it did not
    square with the evidence of Gerelle’s significant motor deficits and immobility, particularly
    when his legs were tightly bound together at night by the external brace. Nor could a trier of
    fact reasonably find that a violent seizure jerked Gerelle out of the bed, since Michelle testified
    that he no longer needed seizure medication and that his seizures, when he did have them, were
    “mild,” anyway, affecting only his eyes and arms.
    ¶ 69       So what did happen to Gerelle? The defense did not claim to have a definitive answer. Its
    point, rather, was that the State failed to exclude a “supervening cause of death.” One unsettling
    implication—that Gerelle could have been the victim of an intentional act by either his mother
    or sister—was clear enough, but counsel, for obvious reasons, was none too eager to draw out
    that implication in explicit terms. Counsel did propose, however, that Gerelle’s death could
    have been the result of “gross negligence” in his care, since the evidence showed, among other
    things, that a six-year-old spastic quadriplegic was left unattended for no less than 16 hours.
    ¶ 70       In rebuttal, the State painted defense counsel’s argument as a flat-out accusation that
    Michelle murdered Gerelle. Beyond that, the State insisted that “there is not a causation issue.
    There is not an issue with the circumstances of the way this child was found. That child, if it
    wasn’t for the defendant, that child could have got up and ran away, but he couldn’t because
    of what this defendant did.” Defendant, in other words, was a contributing cause of Gerelle’s
    death, and that was the end of the matter. As for the question posed by the defense’s
    supervening-cause argument—how did Gerelle wind up in the pillow?—the State simply
    reiterated, without further elaboration, “[o]bviously, this had [sic] child fell into the pillow, fell
    into the pillow and suffocated.”
    ¶ 71       Let us briefly take stock, before moving on to examine the trial court’s findings and
    remarks on the issue of supervening causation. There is no denying that the defense raised the
    issue, making it a central theme of the case (among others) all the way through the trial, from
    opening statements to closing arguments.
    ¶ 72       And the issue was not one that the State, or for that matter the trial court, could brush aside
    as inconsequential. A fuller discussion of its merits will have to wait, but we will say this much
    - 10 -
    for the time being: The defense had a point. The State’s case left open serious questions about
    the circumstances of Gerelle’s death, insofar as its only theory (that Gerelle rolled over into
    the pillow) appeared to be directly at odds with its own evidence (that Gerelle could not, in
    fact, roll over). And that created a triable issue regarding a potential supervening cause of
    death, some act or event, apart from defendant’s conduct, that explained how Gerelle wound
    up facedown in the pillow in which he suffocated. Cf. People v. Everette, 
    141 Ill. 2d 147
    , 157
    (1990) (noting that State’s own evidence may give rise to question of self-defense); People v.
    Cacini, 
    2015 IL App (1st) 130135
    , ¶ 45 (same).
    ¶ 73       With the question thus at issue, it was the State’s burden to prove, beyond a reasonable
    doubt, that Gerelle’s death did not result from a supervening cause. And the trial court, for its
    part, had to hold the State to that burden.
    ¶ 74                                                   C
    ¶ 75       In its detailed findings, the trial court focused on the contested medical testimony and the
    question whether defendant’s conduct caused Gerelle’s neurological injuries and resulting
    motor deficits. As to the circumstances of Gerelle’s death, the trial court found, simply, that
    Michelle discovered him “face down in a pillow,” with his leg braces on and that he could not
    remove his face from the pillow because of the injuries that defendant had caused. In an
    otherwise comprehensive recitation of its findings, spanning 24 pages of transcript, the one
    topic on which the trial court said not a single word was the issue of supervening causation.
    ¶ 76       That absence was not lost on defense counsel, who immediately raised the issue to the
    court:
    [DEFENSE COUNSEL]: Judge, is there a finding on the causation? I don’t even
    know if you touched on that issue.
    THE COURT: There is a finding of first degree murder, finding of guilty on first
    degree murder, both counts. That’s the Court’s ruling in this case.
    ¶ 77       Defendant’s posttrial motion thus alleged that the trial court erred “in not giving a finding
    of fact on the defendant’s argument of a supervening cause of death.” The court’s response to
    that posttrial argument—the one and only time it addressed it—forms the crux of this issue on
    appeal.
    ¶ 78                                                  1
    ¶ 79       But first, we must address the State’s argument, however briefly made, that defendant has
    forfeited this claim of error. Forfeiture occurred, says the State, not because defendant did not
    raise the issue of supervening cause at trial (he clearly did, repeatedly and pointedly, at every
    stage of trial) and not because defendant failed to raise it posttrial (he obviously did) but
    because, in the State’s view, defendant’s theory of supervening causation at trial differed from
    the one he now argues on appeal. According to the State, at trial, defendant accused Gerelle’s
    mother of murdering her child, rolling him over onto the pillow, knowing that he would
    suffocate. On appeal, says the State, defendant is merely suggesting that Gerelle’s death was
    the result of “gross negligence,” in that his mother failed to restrain or secure Gerelle in the
    bed and did not check on him for 16 hours after putting him to bed the previous night.
    ¶ 80       The State is wrong, for more than one reason. For one thing, the underlying predicate of its
    forfeiture argument is not supported by the record. Defense counsel never outright said that
    - 11 -
    Gerelle’s mother intentionally acted against her child. Counsel did, on the other hand,
    specifically argue that, in the absence of any evidence as to how the child ended up facedown
    in a pillow, the cause of death could have been an act of “gross negligence.”
    ¶ 81       Was there an implication that another theory of cause of death might have been an
    intentional act of murder? Probably so. It is a sensitive matter, accusing a mother of murder—
    even one faced with such an arduous, around-the-clock task, over the past five years, of caring
    for the most disabled of children—which might explain why the prospect may have been left
    dangling, unspoken, at trial. Enough so, at least, that the State chastised defense counsel in
    rebuttal closing for even suggesting that possibility.
    ¶ 82       But just because the State accused defendant at trial of making that argument does not
    mean that he did. Nor does it change the fact that, even if defendant’s position could be read
    as such, defendant also argued the mother’s “gross negligence,” a quote taken directly from
    the defense’s closing argument. Defendant was obviously free to argue more than one
    supervening cause of death. The State’s forfeiture argument, in other words, ignores the
    argument defendant explicitly raised—“gross negligence”—and claims that the only argument
    defendant raised was one counsel never said aloud. Needless to say, we do not find any merit
    in that argument.
    ¶ 83       We would add, secondly, that, even if the State had accurately represented the record to us
    and defendant only argued intentional murder as a supervening cause, we still would not find
    forfeiture here. Defendant had no burden of proof on this question. As we have noted above,
    defendant need only raise the issue of supervening causation (he did), and there need only be
    slight evidence to support it (there was), and the burden then falls on the State to disprove
    supervening cause. Whether that supervening cause was intentional murder or gross
    negligence, defense’s argument on appeal is the same: the trial court never considered the
    State’s burden to disprove supervening cause beyond a reasonable doubt, regardless of how,
    precisely, defendant presented that argument in the trial court. The precise formulation of that
    argument in the trial court might be relevant to the merits of that argument, but it would have
    nothing to do with forfeiture of the issue raised here on appeal.
    ¶ 84                                                  2
    ¶ 85       On to the merits. As noted, despite the defense’s consistent claim in both its opening
    statement and closing argument that supervening causation was an element the State could not
    disprove, the trial court made no mention of it in its extensive findings. Its absence was even
    more notable given the extensive findings the trial court made on the scientific evidence. Nor
    did the trial court address it even when defense counsel specifically asked for its finding on
    causation.
    ¶ 86       Still, a trial court is “not required to mention everything—or, for that matter, anything—
    that contributed to its verdict.” People v. Curtis, 
    296 Ill. App. 3d 991
    , 1000 (1998). So the trial
    court’s initial silence alone, conspicuous as it might seem, does not support a claim of error in
    and of itself.
    ¶ 87       That is not to say, however, that the trial court’s initial omission of the issue cannot take
    on new significance in light of what it did say later on, in ruling on the posttrial motion. After
    defendant alleged posttrial that the trial court failed to consider the element of lack of
    supervening cause, the trial court responded:
    - 12 -
    “With regard to the argument of a supervening cause of death, I don’t know if that
    refers to what happened to him later in life, in terms of how he was positioned in the
    bed or whatever. I believe that he was put in that state by the defendant’s actions.”
    ¶ 88        The parties go to great battle over what the trial court meant here. We start with the
    presumption that the trial court understood and correctly applied the law at a bench trial—
    unless the record affirmatively shows otherwise. People v. Hernandez, 
    2012 IL App (1st) 092841
    , ¶ 41.
    ¶ 89        This presumption is seldom overcome, but on a few occasions, we have ordered a new trial
    where it was clear that the court, sitting as the trier of fact, misunderstood some aspect of the
    burden of proof. See, e.g., 
    id.
     (trial court misinterpreted element of statute); People v.
    Robinson, 
    368 Ill. App. 3d 963
    , 977-78 (2006) (same); People v. Kluxdal, 
    225 Ill. App. 3d 217
    ,
    224 (1991) (court applied improper burden of proof to insanity defense).
    ¶ 90        The State says that the trial court’s quote above shows that it understood and properly
    applied the law by “reject[ing]” defendant’s “purely speculative theory.” The State’s argument
    goes like this: (1) Defendant’s shaking of the baby, causing brain injuries, was a contributing
    cause of Gerelle’s death; (2) once proven, there is a presumption that defendant is legally
    responsible for the death; (3) defendant can overcome that presumption only by carrying his
    burden of showing that the sole cause of death was a supervening cause; (4) defendant’s theory
    of supervening causation was “purely speculative,” and thus he “utterly failed to rebut the
    presumption”; and (5) the trial court, in short hand, was merely explaining all of this in the
    quote above.
    ¶ 91        If the State’s interpretation were correct, the trial court committed error. We have already
    rejected the State’s position that the defendant bears the burden of proving the existence of a
    supervening cause. As we said above, due process demands that, once the issue of supervening
    cause becomes an issue in a trial (as it clearly did here), the State has the burden of disproving
    it. If the trial court, as the State claims, was assigning the burden of proof to defendant and
    claiming he did not carry it, we would reverse this conviction on that basis alone.
    ¶ 92        But we do not think the trial court’s comments could be reasonably interpreted as the State
    urges. In fact, we do not see how anything the trial court said could be taken as a comment on
    the merits of defendant’s supervening-cause argument. For ease of reading, we quote the
    comments one more time:
    “With regard to the argument of a supervening cause of death, I don’t know if that
    refers to what happened to him later in life, in terms of how he was positioned in the
    bed or whatever. I believe that he was put in that state by the defendant’s actions.”
    ¶ 93        Defendant says this language, especially the first sentence, shows that the trial court did
    not understand the concept of “supervening cause.” We think that is an overstatement. But we
    would agree that the court expressed some confusion over defendant’s argument, stating that
    “I don’t know if” the supervening-cause argument “refers to *** how he was positioned in the
    bed or whatever.” We mean no criticism of the trial court, speaking extemporaneously, but
    words such as “I don’t know if” and “or whatever” suggest that the trial court might have had
    less than a firm understanding of the particulars of defendant’s supervening-cause argument.
    ¶ 94        But that is where the second sentence comes in. After its uncertain attempt to paraphrase
    defendant’s supervening-cause argument, the court came back with the reason why that
    argument failed: because Gerelle “was put in that state by the defendant’s actions.” (Emphasis
    - 13 -
    added.) That “state”—meaning that state of spastic quadriplegia, which rendered Gerelle
    defenseless once facedown on the pillow. (“That state” could not have meant the state of being
    face-down in the pillow; defendant did not cause that to happen from his prison cell.)
    ¶ 95        In other words, even if the trial court was not entirely clear on the specifics of the
    supervening-cause argument, it did not matter; “whatever” the particulars of that argument
    might entail (Michelle’s gross neglect or her intentional act), Gerelle would not have
    suffocated if he had not been paralyzed, and he was paralyzed by defendant’s actions five years
    earlier. So the details of the supervening-cause argument did not matter; the State had proven
    that the paralysis was a contributing cause of Gerelle’s death. And so the murder conviction
    would stand. Cf. Domagala, 
    2013 IL 113688
    , ¶¶ 21, 41 (trial court “appeared to misapprehend
    the law” in stating that “ ‘[i]t doesn’t matter’ whether there was gross medical negligence in
    this case” because defendant, having battered the victim, would still be liable for murder).
    ¶ 96        That was error. That reasoning writes the supervening-cause doctrine out of the law.
    Supervening causation only becomes an issue after the State proves that the defendant’s actions
    were a contributing cause of death, the first prong of the two-prong causation analysis. If
    contributing cause alone were enough to sustain a murder conviction in this context, the
    supervening-cause doctrine would cease to exist. And there would be no need for IPI Criminal
    4th (Supp. 2011) No. 7.15.
    ¶ 97        Imagine if it were otherwise. Anyone whose conduct has caused a victim significant
    injuries or impairments would be liable for murder if those injuries or impairments figured, in
    any way whatsoever, in the victim’s eventual death, no matter what the accompanying facts.
    ¶ 98        Say a defendant shoots Victim A, causing paralysis. Five years later, a caregiver
    intentionally drowns Victim A by holding him underwater. Without a supervening-cause
    analysis, would the original defendant now be a murderer? After all, if Victim A had not been
    paralyzed, he might have been able to fight back, so contributing causation exists. Such a result
    would be preposterous. But under the trial court’s reasoning (echoed by the State, we would
    note, throughout the trial), the original defendant would be liable for murder. The caregiver’s
    intentional act five years later would be utterly irrelevant to the original defendant’s guilt for
    murder.
    ¶ 99        Or consider the same scenario, but the caregiver places Victim A, wheelchair-bound,
    perilously dangling on the edge of a curb to a high-traffic intersection, then leaves Victim A
    unattended. If the wheelchair tips into traffic, causing a vehicle to hit and kill Victim A, is the
    original shooter-defendant guilty of murder? Again, Victim A would not have been in that
    situation, paralyzed and wheelchair-bound, were it not for the original act of shooting him. But
    suggesting that the caregiver’s negligence would not at least be part of the analysis and that
    the original defendant would be guilty of murder, regardless, would be wholly unreasonable.
    ¶ 100       Or transplant facts from a real case, involving an infant, to a boy like Gerelle, paralyzed
    from an act of abuse. Suppose that child is put to sleep at night, and during the night, a swarm
    of fire ants invades the bedroom and inflicts thousands of bites on the unattended, immobile
    child. See Pearson v. State, 
    601 So. 2d 1119
    , 1121 (Ala. Crim. App. 1992). Is the original
    defendant guilty of abuse now a murderer? After all, if the child had been of sound body, surely
    he would have left the bedroom to safety. But it would be absurd not to at least consider the
    possibility that the insect attack constituted a supervening cause, cutting off liability to the
    original defendant. See 
    id.
     (in case charging defendants with criminal liability for child neglect,
    attack by ants on sleeping infant was supervening cause of death).
    - 14 -
    ¶ 101        The State did not help matters at trial. It encouraged the trial court to follow its mistaken
    understanding of the law. The State never acknowledged its burden to prove the absence of a
    supervening cause of death. Even in its rebuttal argument, after the defense argued the issue,
    the State simply asserted again that Gerelle, somehow or other, “[o]bviously *** fell into the
    pillow and suffocated.” Never mind how, never mind the details, and never mind whether that
    was even possible, given what the State’s own evidence showed about his physical inability to
    roll over while wearing braces. Evidently, the State thought that it did not need to take up such
    questions, because its burden on the element of causation was just to prove that defendant’s
    conduct “contributed to” Gerelle’s death by causing his injuries and nothing more.
    ¶ 102        And the trial court followed the State’s lead: In initially announcing its finding of guilt, the
    court found that Gerelle suffocated in the pillow because of the injuries defendant had caused
    five years earlier but said nothing responsive to the question, raised by the defense, as to how
    Gerelle could have gotten himself into the pillow in the first place, given the State’s own
    evidence of his significant motor deficits. In a meticulous ruling, the trial court covered every
    aspect of this case in full detail but never so much as mentioned supervening causation—not
    even when directly asked about it by defense counsel, immediately after the ruling was
    announced.
    ¶ 103        As we have acknowledged, the trial court was not required to say anything about this issue
    in its findings. But when asked about the omission in the posttrial motion, the court continued
    to lop off this half of the causation element. Instead of addressing the issue of supervening
    cause, the court merely rephrased its earlier finding that defendant’s conduct was a
    contributing cause of Gerelle’s death, because five years ago, defendant caused Gerelle’s
    paralysis and resulting limitations. That, in the trial court’s view, was enough to sustain the
    murder charge.
    ¶ 104        The trial court thus erred by failing to consider whether the State had proven, beyond a
    reasonable doubt, the absence of a supervening cause in Gerelle’s death.
    ¶ 105                                                   D
    ¶ 106        At oral argument and in its brief, the State argues that a supervening cause could break the
    causal chain only when it constitutes “gross negligence.” Because both the trial court and the
    State misapprehended the law, we take this opportunity to clarify matters.
    ¶ 107        We start by quoting IPI Criminal 4th (Supp. 2011) No. 7.15 in full:
    “In order for you to find that the acts of the defendant caused the death of ___, the
    State must prove beyond a reasonable doubt that defendant’s acts were a contributing
    cause of the death and that the death did not result from a cause unconnected with the
    defendant. However, it is not necessary that you find the acts of the defendant were the
    sole and immediate cause of death.” 
    Id.
    ¶ 108        First and once again, IPI Criminal 4th (Supp. 2011) No. 7.15 makes clear that the presence
    of contributing causation and the absence of supervening causation are both aspects of the
    causation element that the State must prove beyond a reasonable doubt. Proving contributing
    causation, alone, is not enough, at least not in the rare case that supervening causation is at
    issue.
    ¶ 109        And obviously, the fact finder will reach the question of supervening causation only if it
    first finds that the State has proven that the defendant’s acts were a contributing cause of death.
    - 15 -
    If the State cannot even prove contributing causation, an acquittal must follow. So the finding
    of contributing causation against the defendant is a necessary start but by no means the end of
    the inquiry.
    ¶ 110        Just as obviously, as the second sentence of the pattern instruction makes clear, there can
    be more than one contributing cause of death. The fact that there is a second contributing cause
    does not automatically relieve the defendant (whose actions also contributed to the death) of
    criminal liability.
    ¶ 111        For example, if the defendant and another individual both shoot a victim and the coroner
    cannot identify which of the gunshot wounds was fatal, the defendant remains liable for murder
    as a principal, because his shooting of the victim was at least one of the contributing causes of
    death. See People v. Brown, 
    169 Ill. 2d 132
    , 153 (1996). If the defendant and several other men
    beat a victim to death, but it is not possible to identify whether the defendant’s blows alone
    were the fatal ones, the defendant nevertheless may be convicted as a principal because his
    actions at least contributed to the death. See People v. Martinez, 
    348 Ill. App. 3d 521
    , 530-31
    (2004); see also Nere, 
    2018 IL 122566
    , ¶¶ 33-35 (discussing Brown and Martinez).
    ¶ 112        So when does the second cause of the victim’s death relieve the defendant from criminal
    liability? According to IPI Criminal 4th (Supp. 2011) No. 7.15, that occurs when the victim’s
    death resulted “from a cause unconnected with the defendant.” 
    Id.
     When is a second cause
    “unconnected with the defendant?” The pattern instruction does not further define that phrase.
    ¶ 113        We can start with what that phrase does not mean. It does not and cannot mean that there
    is no causal “connection” whatsoever between the defendant’s actions and the victim’s death.
    If there is no causal connection whatsoever, there is no contributing causation in the first place,
    and there is no need to consider the question of supervening causation—the defendant is
    already not guilty of murder. That was the trial court’s error, believing that, as long as
    defendant’s conduct contributed to Gerelle’s death, the supervening-cause argument failed.
    ¶ 114        So what do we mean by a cause that is “unconnected with the defendant?” We know this
    much, for starters: The question of supervening causation speaks to the second element of
    causation, that of legal causation. And a supervening cause only relieves the defendant of
    criminal liability if it breaks the causal chain and becomes the sole legal cause of the victim’s
    death, sometimes called the sole proximate cause.
    ¶ 115        That doctrine is seen more often in tort cases than in the criminal law. But “ ‘the analogies
    between civil and criminal cases in which individuals are injured or killed are so close that the
    principle of proximate cause applies to both classes of cases. Causal relation is the universal
    factor common to all legal liability.’ ” People v. Hudson, 
    222 Ill. 2d 392
    , 401 (2006) (quoting
    People v. Lowery, 
    178 Ill. 2d 462
    , 466 (1997)). “Although proximate cause as a prerequisite
    for liability originated in torts, ‘the civil concepts of proximate cause are equally applicable to
    criminal cases.’ ” People v. Cook, 
    2011 IL App (4th) 090875
    , ¶ 17 (quoting Hudson, 
    222 Ill. 2d at 402
    ). As we put it long ago, “[t]he problem of legal causation arises in both tort and
    criminal law cases, and they are analogous to each other and have been treated in a similar
    manner by the courts.” People v. Gulliford, 
    86 Ill. App. 3d 237
    , 241 (1980).
    ¶ 116        Our supreme court has described the second causation element, or legal causation, thusly:
    “Legal cause ‘is essentially a question of foreseeability’; the relevant inquiry is
    ‘whether the injury is of a type that a reasonable person would see as a likely result of
    his or her conduct.’ [Citation.] Foreseeability is added to the cause-in-fact requirement
    - 16 -
    because ‘even when cause in fact is established, it must be determined that any variation
    between the result intended *** and the result actually achieved is not so extraordinary
    that it would be unfair to hold the defendant responsible for the actual result.’ 1 W.
    LaFave, Substantive Criminal Law § 6.4, at 464 (2d ed. 2003).” Hudson, 
    222 Ill. 2d at 401
    .
    ¶ 117       Though Hudson was a felony-murder case, somewhat different than a more traditional
    murder prosecution, our courts have repeated the notions of fairness and foreseeability in
    considering supervening causation issues outside the realm of felony-murder prosecutions.
    See, e.g., Nere, 
    2018 IL 122566
    , ¶ 31 (to establish legal cause, result of death “ ‘must be
    enough similar to, and occur in a manner enough similar to, the result or manner which the
    defendant intended *** that the defendant may fairly be held responsible for the actual result’ ”
    (quoting 1 Wayne R. LaFave, Substantive Criminal Law § 6.4(a), at 630-31 (3d ed. 2018));
    Mars, 
    2012 IL App (2d) 110695
    , ¶ 17 (intervening conduct that is “abnormal and not
    reasonably foreseeable” will exonerate defendant of criminal liability); Cook, 
    2011 IL App (4th) 090875
    , ¶ 18 (proximate cause of death in aggravated DUI prosecution “is established if
    an injury was foreseeable as the type of harm that a reasonable person would expect to see as
    a likely result of his or her conduct.” (Internal quotation marks omitted.)); Gulliford, 86 Ill.
    App. 3d at 241 (“in both the criminal law and in tort law the concept of foreseeability of the
    ensuing harm caused from the culpable act of a defendant plays a large role”); People v.
    Caldwell, 
    295 Ill. App. 3d 172
    , 181 (1998) (after defendant beat elderly woman, who suffered
    broken neck and severed spinal cord in process, family decision to remove woman from life
    support was not supervening cause of her death, relieving defendant of criminal liability, but
    instead was “natural and foreseeable result of defendant’s wrongful act”).
    ¶ 118       The focus, then, is on whether the second and immediate cause of death is deemed
    sufficiently within the natural and probable sequence of events (that is, sufficiently
    foreseeable) that a defendant may fairly be held responsible for the death or whether the
    immediate cause of death is so “abnormal” or beyond the natural sequence of events
    (unforeseeable) that a defendant may not be fairly held responsible for the result. What is
    deemed sufficiently “foreseeable” that a defendant may be “fairly” held responsible for the
    death, notwithstanding the successive cause of death, is the question the fact finder must
    decide. See Brackett, 
    117 Ill. 2d at 176-77
     (legal causation is question of fact).
    ¶ 119       The State is not wrong to suggest that a second actor’s “gross negligence” may be a
    supervening cause of death. Of course it may. But it is incorrect to say that this can be the only
    instance of a supervening cause. Any number of things could occur within a sequence of
    events, besides gross negligence, that could be so unforeseeable that it would be unfair to hold
    the defendant liable for the victim’s death.
    ¶ 120       An act of God, for example. Imagine if Gerelle had died because lightning struck his house
    and caused an electrical fire in his room, causing Gerelle’s death before his mother had the
    chance to save him. No gross negligence or intentional act there, but a fact finder might
    reasonably consider the fire to be a supervening cause. Even though Gerelle could have
    escaped from the room had he not been paralyzed—and thus defendant’s conduct contributed
    to his death—a fact finder might determine that the lightning strike and electrical fire were so
    far beyond the natural and expected chain of events that it would be unfair to impose liability
    on defendant for murder.
    - 17 -
    ¶ 121       Or imagine that Gerelle’s mother suddenly died of a stroke or heart attack and the two of
    them lived alone, such that Gerelle was left unattended for several days and died in some way
    from neglect. The mother would be blameless, of course, but a fact finder could reasonably
    conclude that her sudden death and the resulting neglect of Gerelle were so beyond the normal
    sequence of events that it would be unfair to charge defendant with Gerelle’s death, even
    though he could have survived had he not been paralyzed due to defendant’s actions.
    ¶ 122       “Gross negligence” often comes up in the case law because there have been several
    reported decisions involving medical treatment of a victim grievously wounded by a
    defendant’s conduct. In those cases, the victim dies, and the defendant blames medical
    negligence as a supervening cause of the victim’s death. We have held in those cases that
    ordinary medical mistakes will not constitute a supervening cause but that gross negligence or
    intentional malpractice could.
    ¶ 123       But the reason always comes back to foreseeability, and sometimes we have said so
    explicitly: Ordinary medical mistakes that contribute to a victim’s death do not absolve the
    defendant of liability because they are considered a foreseeable occurrence after the defendant,
    by his conduct, placed the victim in the position of requiring imminent lifesaving measures.
    See, e.g., Mars, 
    2012 IL App (2d) 110695
    , ¶ 17 (“Unskilled or improper medical treatment
    that aggravates a victim’s preexisting condition or contributes to the victim’s death is
    considered reasonably foreseeable and does not constitute an intervening act unless the
    treatment is so bad that it can be classified as gross negligence or intentional malpractice.”);
    People v. Robinson, 
    199 Ill. App. 3d 494
    , 503 (1990) (unless treatment of injured victim is “so
    bad that it can be classified as gross negligence or intentional malpractice,” unskilled or
    improper medical treatment “is considered reasonably foreseeable and, thus, does not
    constitute an intervening act”); Gulliford, 86 Ill. App. 3d at 241 (“unskillful medical
    treatment,” short of gross or intentional malpractice, “is reasonably foreseeable”).
    ¶ 124       Other times, we have not used the word “foreseeable,” instead using the concept of
    “disconnection” between the defendant’s action and the immediate cause of death, as does IPI
    Criminal 4th (Supp. 2011) No. 7.15. Yet the focus remains on whether the immediate cause of
    death, the perceived medical negligence, was within or outside the natural causal chain of
    events, which is just another way of asking whether it was foreseeable. See Cook, 
    2011 IL App (4th) 090875
    , ¶ 30 (phrase “ ‘in the natural or probable sequence,’ ” in jury instruction on
    proximate cause of death in aggravated DUI prosecution, “incorporates the element of
    foreseeability”).
    ¶ 125       Here are just a few examples: People v. Giovanetti, 
    70 Ill. App. 3d 275
    , 284-85 (1979)
    (emergency cardiac massage that allegedly severed liver of victim, leading to his death, was
    not supervening cause because “[t]he original trauma inflicted by defendant triggered the
    sequence of events leading to emergency treatment. That treatment, therefore, hardly qualifies
    as an act disconnecting defendant’s conduct from the ultimate demise as an independent
    intervening cause”); People v. Baer, 
    35 Ill. App. 3d 391
    , 395 (1976) (“it is apparent that the
    acute secondary pneumonia resulted directly from paralysis induced by the blow to the head.
    It was not a separate intervening act disconnected from the injury inflicted, and therefore will
    not relieve defendants from liability for the death of [victim].”); People v. Paulson, 
    80 Ill. App. 2d 44
    , 49 (1967) (“death was caused by an infection which developed during an operation to
    relieve a hematoma, the hematoma having been caused by a blow to the head allegedly inflicted
    by the defendant. The chain of events ultimately causing the death of [victim] was set in motion
    - 18 -
    by the act of defendant, and therefore the resulting infection was not disconnected from
    defendant’s act [citation].”).
    ¶ 126       So that is what IPI Criminal 4th (Supp. 2011) No. 7.15 means when it says the State must
    prove that the victim’s death “did not result from a cause unconnected with the defendant.”
    The State must prove that the successive, immediate cause of death was of a type that was
    sufficiently foreseeable in the natural sequence of events put into motion by defendant’s
    conduct that it would not be unfair to hold the defendant criminally liable for the death. The
    immediate cause of death is “unconnected” from the defendant’s conduct if it is of a type that
    is outside the natural causal chain—if it is unforeseeable and thus unfair to hold against the
    defendant.
    ¶ 127       We are not suggesting that the “precise manner of death” must be foreseeable, down to the
    minutiae. Brackett, 
    117 Ill. 2d at 180-81
     (after defendant beat elderly woman so severely she
    could neither swallow nor tolerate feeding tube, her death from asphyxia after nursing-home
    staff tried to feed her manually was not supervening cause of death: “the defendant did not
    have to foresee that this victim would die from asphyxiation in order to be guilty of felony
    murder”); see also Cook, 
    2011 IL App (4th) 090875
    , ¶ 18 (“Although the foreseeability of an
    injury will establish [proximate] cause, the extent of the injury or the exact way in which it
    occurs need not be foreseeable.” (Internal quotation marks omitted.)); see also People v.
    Johnson, 
    392 Ill. App. 3d 127
    , 131 (2009) (same).
    ¶ 128       Requiring that level of foreseeability would place an impossible burden on the State. A
    defendant who grievously injures a victim might not specifically foresee that she will contract
    meningitis as a postsurgical complication, but he could foresee that some medical complication
    might result from the lifesaving measures prompted by the defendant’s wrongful acts. That is
    why we have tried to emphasize that the question is whether the successive, immediate cause
    is “of a type that a reasonable person would see as a likely result of his or her conduct.”
    (Emphasis added.) (Internal quotation marks omitted.) Hudson, 
    222 Ill. 2d at 401
    . The State
    need only show that the immediate cause of death is “ ‘enough similar to, and occur[red] in a
    manner enough similar to, the result or manner which the defendant intended *** that the
    defendant may fairly be held responsible for the actual result.’ ” Nere, 
    2018 IL 122566
    , ¶ 31
    (quoting 1 Wayne R. LaFave, Substantive Criminal Law § 6.4(a), at 630-31 (3d ed. 2018)).
    ¶ 129       Here, the evidence showed that Gerelle’s mother used a body pillow, an obvious
    suffocation risk, as a substitute for a bed railing and that she did not check on him for 16 hours
    after putting him to bed the previous night. The evidence also suggested the possibility of foul
    play, given that his mother testified that Gerelle was incapable of rolling over while wearing
    his braces—yet Gerelle appeared to have done just that, rolling over so that his face planted
    into the body pillow.
    ¶ 130   Depending on the defense’s theory—neglect or foul play or both—the question for the fact
    finder should have been whether these types of acts or events were sufficiently foreseeable that
    it would be fair to hold defendant criminally responsible for Gerelle’s death. And the State
    should have been held to the burden of proving as much beyond a reasonable doubt.
    ¶ 131                                                E
    ¶ 132       Having found that the trial court did not fully grasp the causation element of the murder
    statute and thus failed to hold the State to its burden of proof on the issue of supervening
    causation, we must determine whether the error requires reversal.
    - 19 -
    ¶ 133       The trial court’s misunderstanding of an element at a bench trial is essentially the same as
    a jury instruction that omits or incorrectly defines an element; in either instance, the result of
    the error is that the trier of fact was misinformed about the State’s burden of proof. Hernandez,
    
    2012 IL App (1st) 092841
    , ¶ 67. So the same standard for reversal should apply. 
    Id.
    ¶ 134       Because the error is a constitutional one, affecting the defendant’s right to due process,
    reversal is required unless it is “ ‘clear beyond a reasonable doubt that a rational jury would
    have found the defendant guilty absent the error.’ ” 
    Id.
     (quoting Neder v. United States, 
    527 U.S. 1
    , 18 (1999)); see also, e.g., People v. Mohr, 
    228 Ill. 2d 53
    , 69 (2008) (applying harmless-
    beyond-a-reasonable-doubt standard to instructional error); People v. Pomykala, 
    203 Ill. 2d 198
    , 210 (2003) (same); People v. Dennis, 
    181 Ill. 2d 87
    , 95 (1998) (same). Thus, reversal is
    required unless the evidence was so “ ‘overwhelming,’ ” or so “ ‘clear and convincing,’ ” that
    the error could not have affected the verdict. Mohr, 
    228 Ill. 2d at 69
    ; Dennis, 
    181 Ill. 2d at 95
    .
    The State bears the burden of proving that a constitutional error was harmless. Sullivan v.
    Louisiana, 
    508 U.S. 275
    , 278-79 (1993); People v. Patterson, 
    217 Ill. 2d 407
    , 428 (2005).
    ¶ 135       The State cannot satisfy this standard just by showing that there was sufficient evidence,
    such that a reasonable trier of fact, viewing the evidence in the light most favorable to the State,
    could have found in its favor. Dennis, 
    181 Ill. 2d at 95
    . The State’s arguments to that effect,
    and its reliance on cases finding sufficient evidence of causation, significantly understate its
    burden on harmless-error review. The State must show that there was not merely sufficient but
    rather overwhelming evidence to establish the absence of a supervening cause of death—so
    that no reasonable trier of fact, properly apprised of the law, would have found that the State
    failed to carry its burden on this issue.
    ¶ 136       What evidence does the State offer to that end? Little or none. It bears repetition that the
    State’s case left open serious questions about the circumstances and complete mechanism of
    Gerelle’s death. In particular, there was no direct evidence to establish, with any measure of
    certainty, how he ended up with his face pressing into the body pillow. And apart from that, it
    was not even clear exactly how he was positioned when he died, as his body was moved before
    the scene could be properly investigated and Michelle’s recollections on this point were
    understandably clouded even at the time and all but absent by the time of defendant’s trial 14
    years later.
    ¶ 137       So on the pertinent question—how Gerelle wound up in the compromised position in which
    he died—the trier of fact had to draw an inference from the limited information it had about
    his position when Michelle put him to sleep, his position when he was found, and the evidence
    of his physical abilities. There is, of course, nothing wrong with relying on inferences when
    there is no direct evidence of the events in question. But the inference must be compelling
    enough to prove that no causal force unrelated to defendant was responsible for Gerelle’s death
    by suffocation.
    ¶ 138       The evidence established this much: When Gerelle was put to sleep, he was flat on his
    back, in the center of the mattress (judging from the crime-scene photos, a full-size mattress,
    or thereabouts; it did not look like a toddler bed). When he was found the next day, he was no
    longer on his back and no longer in the center of the mattress. It is unclear exactly where he
    was, but apparently he was somewhere near the edge of the mattress. And the position of his
    body was somewhat unclear, but he was to some degree “on his side,” enough, anyway, that
    his face could be pressing straight down into the body pillow alongside the bed. The sole
    - 20 -
    indentation in the body pillow—a small, fluid-crusted, oval indentation in the shape of his
    mouth—confirmed that his face was in that position.
    ¶ 139       If Gerelle wound up in this position through his own movement and not as the result of
    some external—and potentially supervening—cause, then the most natural inference, as the
    State argued at trial, is that he “rolled over.”
    ¶ 140       Except that he could not, as far as the evidence showed. Above all, Michelle—his own
    mother and principal caretaker in the years following his injuries—had never seen him roll
    over with his braces on, and as far as she knew, he was not able to do that.
    ¶ 141       To be precise, Michelle’s testimony was in response to counsel’s question whether Gerelle
    could roll over when he was wearing his “leg braces and arm braces.” And while she testified
    that Gerelle was wearing both, the crime-scene photos and Dr. Denton’s testimony—that
    Gerelle died with his arms locked in the flexed position that the braces were meant to remedy—
    suggested otherwise.
    ¶ 142       But even if Gerelle was not wearing his arm braces, that would be far from convincing
    evidence that he could have rolled over in these circumstances. There is no evidence to suggest
    (as defendant asserts, in arguing that Michelle could have been grossly negligent) that the arm
    braces—foam braces that wrapped around Gerelle’s elbows—were either meant to keep him
    from rolling over or capable of doing so. One might even think that they would have made it
    somewhat easier, by holding his arms straight along his sides, instead of leaving them locked
    at 90-degree angles, as they were when he died.
    ¶ 143       What is more, the specialist in rehabilitative medicine, who oversaw Gerelle’s therapy for
    five years and had expert knowledge of the scope of his paralysis, spoke directly to the question
    of his physical capacities at the time of his death. In his stipulated testimony, Dr. Sisung stated
    that Gerelle “lacked significant motor control” and could not walk or crawl on his own. If he
    could roll over on his own, Dr. Sisung surely could have established that fact. Yet he said
    nothing that even arguably supported the State’s inference.
    ¶ 144       In short, the State presented no evidence that affirmatively supported the inference that
    Gerelle rolled over on his own. Whether none was available or whether the State simply failed
    to button-up its case, the point is the same. A rational trier of fact, properly apprised of the
    State’s burden of proof, would look at this gap in the evidence and see a reason to find that the
    State did not prove the absence of a supervening cause beyond a reasonable doubt.
    ¶ 145       The State’s rollover theory aside, did the evidence overwhelmingly support an inference
    that Gerelle could have ended up in this position as a result of his own movement? Perhaps he
    sat up in bed and fell over, his face landing in the body pillow and his body landing on its side?
    No, Michelle testified that Gerelle could not sit up on his own.
    ¶ 146       Perhaps a seizure jostled him into this position involuntarily? It seems not; Michelle
    testified that he no longer needed his seizure medication and that his seizures had been “mild,”
    anyway, causing him to “extend his arms out a little bit and just retract them back. And his
    eyes would roll back a little bit.” Those effects could not explain how Gerelle wound up as he
    did.
    ¶ 147       If Gerelle could not walk, crawl, sit up, or roll over on his own and if a seizure could not
    have caused him to wind up where he did, then how did he get there? The record discloses one
    last possibility to consider. Michelle testified that Gerelle could “scoot,” although she did not
    describe what that motion involved. (One thinks here of the infant, similarly unable to walk,
    - 21 -
    crawl, sit up, or roll over, who somehow manages to circumnavigate the crib, entirely on his
    or her back.) Perhaps Gerelle “scooted” himself into the position in which he suffocated?
    ¶ 148       Perhaps. But it is far from clear. It would be one thing if we could infer that he “scooted”
    to the edge of the bed (as opposed to having rolled over, perhaps more than once, to get into
    that position) and fell out. Maybe then he could have fallen, with the aid of gravity, into a
    position that he could not rotate into on his own.
    ¶ 149       But the evidence did not clearly show that he fell out of bed at all. The limited evidence
    available suggests that Gerelle’s body, or at least most of it, apart from his head, was still on
    the mattress; it was only his face that was in contact with the body pillow. That is the inference
    Dr. Denton drew after reviewing Michelle’s contemporaneous statements to investigators and
    other aspects of the crime-scene investigation, as part of his inquiry into the cause of death.
    The lack of any visible indentation in the body pillow, other than the one caused by Gerelle’s
    mouth, also supports this view of the facts. Michelle’s testimony that Gerelle’s legs were
    “alongside the bed” might suggest that his body was next to, not on top of, the mattress. But
    that testimony, offered 14 years after the fact, is vague and ambiguous at best.
    ¶ 150         In any event, there was nowhere for Gerelle to fall. At 11 inches thick, according to Dr.
    Denton’s measurements, the body pillow was only inches below the plane of the mattress,
    which was set on the floor. So whatever Michelle meant by “scooting,” it does not clearly
    explain how Gerelle wound up as he did without rolling over, or sitting up and falling over,
    neither of which he was able to do.
    ¶ 151       To be sure, Michelle was concerned about Gerelle “scooting” himself out of bed. That, she
    said, is why she put the body pillow next to his mattress. And however it happened, in fine-
    grained detail, Gerelle ended up where Michelle anticipated he might end up. Viewing this
    evidence in the light most favorable to the State and drawing every possible inference in its
    favor, a rational trier of fact could find that the State’s evidence on the issue of supervening
    causation was sufficient. But only barely. And barely sufficient evidence is a far cry from
    overwhelming evidence. We cannot reverse defendant’s conviction outright on this basis, but
    we also cannot say that the trial court’s error was harmless beyond a reasonable doubt.
    ¶ 152       The State’s principal citation, Brackett, 
    117 Ill. 2d 170
    , does not compel a different result.
    As a sufficiency case, Brackett does not control our harmless-error inquiry. But it still merits
    scrutiny.
    ¶ 153       The defendant in Brackett raped and battered an elderly woman, causing significant
    internal and external injuries that left her unable to effectively swallow, expel food from her
    trachea, or tolerate a feeding tube. 
    Id. at 173-74, 177-78
    . Yet she had to be fed somehow. Short
    on options, the nursing home staff took to feeding her pureed food with a spoon, which at first
    she seemed to tolerate. 
    Id. at 174
    . In the end, however, she died of asphyxiation, after some of
    that food aspirated into her trachea and she could not expel it. 
    Id. at 174-75
    .
    ¶ 154       The State focuses on the supreme court’s conclusion that there was sufficient evidence of
    causation, where the defendant’s conduct left the victim vulnerable to choking to death on her
    food. See 
    id. at 177-79
    . Here, the State analogizes, defendant’s conduct left Gerelle vulnerable
    to suffocating in the pillow. The analogy has some merit, as far as it goes. And it goes to the
    issue of contributing causation. But Brackett did not hold, as the State has claimed (time and
    again, in the trial court and on appeal), that proof of contributing causation suffices to prove
    causation generally. Supervening causation must also be absent. 
    Id. at 176
    .
    - 22 -
    ¶ 155        In other words, even though the Brackett defendant caused the victim’s heightened
    vulnerability to choking, he would not automatically be the legal cause of her death if she
    wound up choking. It would still matter how that result came to pass. And that question could
    be answered with certainty in Brackett. It was clear that the nursing home staff was trying its
    best to safely feed the victim. But her injuries left them “unable to use a feeding method that
    would have avoided the possibility of choking.” 
    Id. at 178
    . Thus, no matter what the staff did,
    she would either starve or choke. Her death was imminent, and the causal link between that
    result and the defendant’s conduct was undisturbed by any outside forces, be it intentional
    misconduct, grossly negligent care, or aberrant and unforeseeable events.
    ¶ 156        Here, too, it matters how it came to pass that Gerelle suffocated in the body pillow. But
    here, unlike in Brackett, the evidence did not answer that question with clarity. The State had
    no compelling explanation, consistent with its own evidence of Gerelle’s physical capacities,
    of how he ended up in this compromised position. In a similar vein, a trier of fact may have
    doubted that Gerelle could lack the physical ability to remove his face from the pillow (another
    key aspect of the State’s theory) but possess the seemingly greater physical ability to move
    himself from the center of the bed, where he was lying on his back (with his head on a pillow),
    to the position he wound up in. There was no overwhelming, or clear and convincing, evidence
    to rule out the intervention of causal forces independent of defendant’s conduct. See Mohr,
    
    228 Ill. 2d at 69
    ; Dennis, 
    181 Ill. 2d at 95
    .
    ¶ 157        One last point. We do not claim to know, any more than anyone else, how Gerelle wound
    up in the compromised position that led to his tragic death. And by that we mean three things,
    all of which bear emphasis. First, we do not claim to know that there was a supervening cause
    of death. Second, even less do we purport to identify a specific supervening cause of death.
    Third, we are emphatically not accusing anyone of culpable conduct.
    ¶ 158        In sum, a reasonable trier of fact, holding the State to its full burden of proof, could have
    found that the State failed to establish the absence of a supervening cause beyond a reasonable
    doubt. Relieving the State of that burden was not harmless beyond a reasonable doubt.
    Defendant is entitled to a new trial.
    ¶ 159                                                 II
    ¶ 160       Lastly, we consider defendant’s challenge to the sufficiency of the evidence to ensure that
    double jeopardy does not prevent his retrial. See People v. Austin M., 
    2012 IL 111194
    , ¶ 106.
    We have just explained above that the evidence of causation was sufficient, if only barely. But
    defendant offers an entirely different challenge to the sufficiency of the evidence, one we must
    consider as well to satisfy double-jeopardy concerns.
    ¶ 161       Defendant argues that the evidence was insufficient to prove that his admitted act of
    shaking Gerelle caused his neurological injuries and eventual death. Rather, he says, the
    evidence established that Gerelle’s skull fracture—which had to be caused by head impact, not
    shaking alone—caused his neurological injuries. And there was no evidence, he claims, that
    he caused Gerelle to hit his head and fracture his skull. What is more, these injuries, according
    to Dr. Joseph Scheller, a pediatric neurologist who testified for the defense, could have been
    caused by an accident, like a fall onto a hard surface. So there was no evidence that Gerelle’s
    injuries were caused by abuse at all, much less abuse inflicted by defendant.
    ¶ 162       In summary, the causation at work, according to Dr. Scheller, went like this: Gerelle’s skull
    could only have fractured upon impact; shaking alone could not have produced that result. (Dr.
    - 23 -
    Goldberg agreed with that conclusion at trial, although the parties dispute whether she took a
    different view of the matter in 2001.) The skull fracture caused hemorrhaging, which, in turn,
    caused a cascade of seizures that resulted in Gerelle’s neurological, and thus motor,
    impairments. To prove that defendant contributed to Gerelle’s death, the State thus had to
    prove that he caused Gerelle to hit his head.
    ¶ 163        The issue, as defendant presents it, is steeped in the expert medical testimony. But we can
    leave the experts aside. If we accept the premise of defendant’s argument—that the State had
    to prove head impact—the issue boils down to this: Could a reasonable trier of fact, viewing
    the evidence in the light most favorable to the State, find beyond a reasonable doubt that
    defendant caused Gerelle to hit his head while shaking him? See Jackson v. Virginia, 
    443 U.S. 307
    , 319 (1979); People v. Ross, 
    229 Ill. 2d 255
    , 272 (2008). Our answer to this question is
    yes, which means that defendant’s sufficiency challenge fails, no matter what we might
    conclude about the experts and their testimony.
    ¶ 164        Defendant says there is no evidence to support this inference: In his confession and plea
    allocution, he admitted that he shook Gerelle, but he did not admit that Gerelle hit his head.
    ¶ 165        Defendant’s guilty plea is, of course, a judicial admission that he shook Gerelle and thus a
    fixed point in this case. But defendant’s admission was one piece of evidence, among others,
    at his murder trial. And the trier of fact was free to draw any inferences that the evidence as a
    whole supported.
    ¶ 166        Three pieces of evidence are critical. First, Dr. Scheller testified, and no other physician
    disputed, that the head impact had to occur sometime between January 27 and 29, 2001. (This
    was based primarily on Dr. Scheller’s interpretation of Gerelle’s CT scans.) Second, defendant
    admitted that he shook Gerelle on the morning of January 29, 2001. Third, Gerelle’s symptoms
    became evident immediately after defendant shook him: Having shown no signs of trauma thus
    far, Gerelle suddenly stopped breathing and presented to the emergency room with decerebrate
    posturing, an abnormal muscular position that the attending physician immediately recognized
    as a sign of severe brain injury.
    ¶ 167        True, Dr. Scheller testified that the timing of the head impact could only be narrowed to
    roughly a two-day window. And defendant was by no means the only person alone with
    Gerelle, or charged with his care, during that time. Defendant and Michelle divided
    responsibility for his care according to their work schedules—Michelle worked days;
    defendant worked nights—and sometimes left him alone with six-year-old Brianna, when
    Michelle had to leave for her shift before defendant returned from his. So let us grant that, for
    all the doctors could know, Gerelle’s skull might have been fractured, perhaps accidentally,
    while he was in someone else’s care. But does that mean the trier of fact could not reasonably
    find otherwise?
    ¶ 168        No. The trier of fact still had to reconcile this possibility with the other two pieces of
    evidence we mentioned. That exercise yields the following account of events: Defendant shook
    Gerelle during the two-day timeframe identified by Dr. Scheller, but Gerelle did not hit his
    head. Someone else caused Gerelle’s skull fracture during that same time frame, but Gerelle
    did not manifest any symptoms of his neurological injuries when that happened. Instead, those
    injuries just happened to become evident as soon as defendant shook Gerelle.
    ¶ 169        Compare that dubious string of inferences to the alternative explanation: Gerelle hit his
    head and fractured his skull when defendant shook him—by his own admission, during the
    time frame necessary to cause the injury in question.
    - 24 -
    ¶ 170       Granted, defendant did not include that detail in his confession or his guilty plea. But that
    fact is not dispositive, at least not if a reasonable explanation of the omission can be found.
    The trial court thought that defendant “minimized” his conduct, as defendants sometimes do.
    Or one might think: Someone who was exhausted and frustrated enough to resort to shaking
    his infant son honestly might not have realized, in that frayed state, that the child’s head hit
    something as it whiplashed.
    ¶ 171       It is reasonable to reject defendant’s account of events as too improbable, perhaps all too
    convenient, to believe. It would be a striking coincidence if Gerelle had sustained two entirely
    unrelated traumatic injuries in the span of two days and those injuries simultaneously became
    evident—as defendant’s bad luck would have it, immediately after he shook Gerelle. But upon
    rejecting that scenario, the only alternative is to find, as the trial court did, that Gerelle must
    have hit his head when defendant shook him. That would hardly be surprising. And we have
    identified above two plausible explanations for why that detail was not mentioned in
    defendant’s confession or plea allocution; either he did not realize Gerelle’s head contacted
    something at the time of the shaking, or he did but tried to minimize his conduct to the court.
    ¶ 172       We cannot say that the trial court’s inference was unreasonable. Thus, even if we grant
    defendant his interpretation of the medical evidence, we must still reject his sufficiency
    challenge. The State did not fail to prove that defendant caused Gerelle’s injuries. A retrial
    would not violate double-jeopardy principles.
    ¶ 173                                                 III
    ¶ 174       One last point. As we have noted, our resolution of the issues raised on appeal does not
    require us to address the medical evidence presented at trial or the conflicting interpretations
    of that evidence offered by the parties’ respective experts. That said, we are not unsympathetic
    to defendant’s point, in his opening brief, that the scientific underpinnings of the “shaken baby
    syndrome” and “abusive head trauma” diagnoses have been increasingly called into question
    by a new body of scientific research in the years since Gerelle’s tragic injuries in 2001.
    ¶ 175       In recent years, courts have started to take note of these scientific developments and to
    grapple with their implications for the validity of shaken-baby prosecutions in general. See,
    e.g., Del Prete v. Thompson, 
    10 F. Supp. 3d 907
    , 909, 957-58, 957 n.10 (N.D. Ill. 2014)
    (finding that Illinois habeas corpus petitioner established “actual innocence” gateway
    exception, where evidence called into question whether “a claim of shaken baby syndrome is
    more an article of faith than a proposition of science”). This is a welcome, perhaps long
    overdue, development. And we are in no way trying to buck that trend. But here, defendant
    pleaded guilty to shaking Gerelle. Because that is a fixed point in this case, the implications of
    this emerging research are questions that we must leave for another day. We can only hope
    that courts and prosecutors alike will approach them with the rigor and caution that they
    demand.
    ¶ 176                                       CONCLUSION
    ¶ 177      Defendant’s conviction is reversed. The cause is remanded for a new trial.
    ¶ 178      Reversed and remanded.
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