Commonwealth v. Drayton , 479 Mass. 479 ( 2018 )


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    SJC-10667
    COMMONWEALTH   vs.   KENJI DRAYTON.
    Suffolk.    February 8, 2018. - May 9, 2018.
    Present:   Gants, C.J., Gaziano, Budd, Cypher, & Kafker, JJ.
    Homicide. Firearms. Evidence, Hearsay, Declaration of deceased
    person. Practice, Criminal, Capital case, New trial,
    Affidavit.
    Indictments found and returned in the Superior Court
    Department on December 11, 2001.
    Following review by this court, 
    473 Mass. 23
     (2015), a
    motion for a new trial was heard by Mitchell H. Kaplan, J.
    Teresa K. Anderson, Assistant District Attorney, for the
    Commonwealth.
    Cathryn A. Neaves for the defendant.
    KAFKER, J.    A Superior Court jury convicted the defendant
    of murder in the first degree for the killing of Michael Greene
    and of unlawful possession of a firearm.     The Commonwealth's
    case against the defendant at trial largely depended on the
    testimony of a single percipient witness, James Jackson.
    2
    Approximately eighteen months after the convictions, another
    individual, Debra Bell, came forward and stated in an affidavit
    that Jackson could not have witnessed the shooting because she
    was in the bathroom with Jackson at the time that it occurred.1
    The affiant died shortly after providing the affidavit.    The
    defendant moved for a new trial on the basis that this affidavit
    was newly discovered evidence, but the trial judge denied the
    motion.
    In Commonwealth v. Drayton, 
    473 Mass. 23
     (2015)
    (Drayton I), we rejected the defendant's claims of error at
    trial and declined to grant the defendant relief under G. L.
    c. 278, § 33E.   We did, however, remand the case for an
    evidentiary hearing on the defendant's motion for a new trial to
    determine whether "Debra's affidavit falls within a narrow,
    constitutionally based exception to the hearsay rule, which
    applies where otherwise inadmissible hearsay is critical to the
    defense and bears persuasive guarantees of trustworthiness."
    Drayton I, supra at 25.   On remand, a different judge determined
    that Debra's affidavit fell within the exception and granted the
    defendant's motion for a new trial.   The Commonwealth appealed.
    1 Because Debra Bell shares a last name with her sister who
    is also discussed, Betty Jo Bell, we refer to both by their
    first names.
    3
    We discern no error or abuse of discretion by the motion
    judge in allowing the defendant's motion for a new trial.      In so
    concluding, we give deference to the motion judge's credibility
    findings and conduct our own independent review of the
    documentary evidence and constitutional issues.     The affidavit
    is admissible because it would have been critical to the defense
    and it bears "persuasive assurances of trustworthiness."
    Drayton I, 473 Mass. at 36, quoting Chambers v. Mississippi, 
    410 U.S. 284
    , 302 (1973).    Furthermore, the affidavit is newly
    discovered evidence and casts real doubt on the justice of the
    defendant's convictions.    We therefore affirm the decision of
    the motion judge granting the defendant's motion for a new
    trial.
    1.   Background.     Drayton I presented the facts underlying
    the defendant's convictions.    See Drayton I, 473 Mass. at 25-29.
    We focus here on the specific facts relevant to the issues in
    this appeal.
    a.   The shooting.     The Commonwealth's evidence against the
    defendant centered on the testimony of Jackson, the man who
    lived in the apartment where Greene was killed.     Drayton I, 473
    Mass. at 26.   Jackson testified that he let Greene use his
    apartment to sell drugs in exchange for money and free drugs.
    Id. at 25.   Jackson had a similar arrangement in the same
    apartment with the defendant and his codefendant, Levino
    4
    Williams.2    Id.   One week before the shooting, Jackson told
    Greene that he could no longer use the apartment to sell drugs.
    Id.
    On the day of the shooting, the defendant and Williams were
    in the apartment with Jackson, drinking and rolling "oolies,"
    which are "cigarettes laced with cocaine and 'reefer.'"      Id.
    Debra and her sister, Betty Jo Bell, were also at the apartment
    during the day, although Jackson testified that both Debra and
    Betty Jo left at some point prior to the shooting.3
    Jackson testified that, at some point, he let Greene into
    the apartment.      According to Jackson's testimony, when he let
    Greene into the apartment, it was just Greene, the defendant,
    Williams, and Jackson still in the apartment, with the defendant
    in the living room with Jackson and Williams seated nearby at
    the kitchen table.     Jackson then told Greene that he did not
    want Greene to sell drugs in the apartment anymore, which upset
    Greene.     Id.   According to Jackson, Greene then made a cellular
    telephone call during which he threatened to "kill 'em all" and
    burn down the apartment.      Id.   After Greene made this
    2   Levino Williams, the codefendant at trial, was acquitted.
    3According to James Jackson's testimony, there may have
    been several other people in the apartment throughout the day.
    Jackson testified that two tall white males, one named Mark and
    another whose name is unknown, were in the apartment during the
    day. Statements made to the police also place a woman named
    Sandra in the apartment at various times.
    5
    threatening telephone call, Jackson left the living room to go
    to the bathroom.       Id.    Jackson heard a gunshot as he was
    preparing to leave the bathroom.        Id.    He walked out and saw the
    defendant shoot Greene five additional times.          Id. at 25-26.
    The Commonwealth offered very little physical evidence
    beyond Jackson's testimony that linked the defendant to the
    shooting:   the Commonwealth never located the firearm used to
    shoot Greene, and the only physical evidence that linked the
    defendant to the apartment were a beer bottle that contained a
    latent finger print matching the defendant's right middle finger
    joint and a cellular telephone linked to a person known to both
    the defendant and Williams.4        Id. at 27.
    Furthermore, as we noted in Drayton I, "[t]he problems with
    Jackson's credibility were legion."           Id. at 26.   Jackson was a
    heavy drinker and used drugs, including "crack" cocaine,
    extensively throughout his life and in the days leading up to
    the shooting.    Id.     His testimony at trial contradicted some of
    his earlier statements, including his 911 call and his grand
    jury testimony.       Id.    For example, in his 911 call, Jackson
    stated that an unknown assailant pushed through the door and
    shot Greene.    Id.    Jackson also testified during his grand jury
    4 The police traced the cellular telephone to an address in
    the Dorchester section of Boston and a woman named Tamika Ivy.
    The parties stipulated at trial that both the defendant and
    Williams knew Ivy.
    6
    testimony that Williams was standing behind the defendant as the
    defendant shot Greene but testified at trial that he did not see
    Williams when he saw the defendant shoot Greene.       Id.   Defense
    counsel attempted to impeach him with many of these
    inconsistencies.      Id.   Jackson even stated during his testimony
    that parts of his previous statements were either untrue or
    mistaken.    Id.    Despite these limitations and the "other
    inconsistencies and seeming obfuscations" in Jackson's
    testimony, the defendant was convicted of murder in the first
    degree for the shooting of Greene based largely on Jackson's
    testimony.    Id.
    b.   Postconviction affidavits.       In October, 2006, eighteen
    months after the convictions, Debra contacted attorney Bernard
    Grossberg, the defendant's trial counsel.       Drayton I, 473 Mass.
    at 24.   In a signed affidavit dated October 17, 2006, Debra
    stated that she was diagnosed with metastatic cancer and was
    undergoing chemotherapy.      She stated that "[b]ecause of the
    uncertainty of [her] medical condition," she did not want the
    fact that she did not disclose what she knew about the shooting
    of Greene on her conscience and decided to come forward.       She
    also stated that her initial statement to police on September
    27, 2001, was "not completely truthful," that she only said
    those things "in order to get out of there as quickly as
    7
    possible," and that "[t]he officers asked [her] questions, to
    which [she] agreed in order to be able to leave."5
    In the affidavit, Debra described the afternoon of the
    shooting very differently from what was presented by Jackson's
    testimony.    She stated that she arrived at the apartment that
    morning at approximately 11 A.M. but left after an argument with
    Jackson.     She stated that she then returned to the apartment "a
    little after 3:00 P.M." and that "there were a number of people
    in the apartment," including Jackson, Greene, a black woman
    named Sandra, an unknown white male, and a black male named Joe.
    According to the affidavit, Debra then brought Jackson into the
    bathroom, where they "were smoking crack cocaine and engaged in
    sexual acts."6    At some point, Debra heard "a series of noises"
    and asked Jackson "if he heard the noises and he said he was not
    sure of what or if he heard anything."     After she waited a few
    5 In her initial statement, Debra told the police that she
    left the apartment before the shooting and did not mention
    anything about being in the bathroom with Jackson. In her
    affidavit, Debra stated that at the time of her original
    statement to police she was "afraid of the officers," she "did
    not want to get involved in the case," and "the officers told
    [her] that they would take care of arrest warrants that were
    pending against [her] in different courts."
    6 In the affidavit, Debra stated that she had known Jackson
    "for about three years" and that she "had an off and on intimate
    relationship" with him. In her statement to police on September
    27, 2001, Debra described her relationship with Jackson as "like
    a brother/sister friendship, concerned about no other guy." At
    trial, Jackson testified on cross-examination that he had not
    been involved in a relationship with Debra.
    8
    minutes, Debra "opened the bathroom door and briefly peeked out
    the door."   She saw a person's legs on the floor and "screamed
    to Jackson to look out the door."   Jackson replied, "'[h]ell
    with it' or words to that effect," and slammed the door, saying
    that "he did not care about what was going on."   After a short
    time, Debra opened the door and fled the apartment.   Her
    affidavit concluded with the statement that "there was
    absolutely no way that either [Jackson] or I . . . could have
    seen who shot Michael Greene or who was in the apartment at that
    time."
    Grossberg obtained several additional affidavits, including
    one from Betty Jo.   In her affidavit, Betty Jo stated that she
    arrived at the apartment on the day of the shooting at
    approximately 11 A.M. and left approximately one hour later,
    returning at some point in the afternoon to find the building
    sealed off by the police.7   She stated that while she was there,
    the only other people in the apartment were "Jackson, Sandra,
    Mike, Joe, and Debra."   Betty Jo then stated that, "[e]very now
    and then after the shooting on September 20, 2001, [her] sister,
    Debra Bell[,] would tell [her] about what had occurred in the
    apartment" and "would say that she and . . . Jackson were in the
    7 Betty Jo died in February, 2016, which was after the
    release of our decision in Drayton I but prior to the
    evidentiary hearing. See Commonwealth v. Drayton, 
    473 Mass. 23
    (2015) (Drayton I) (decided October 1, 2015).
    9
    bathroom getting high on crack cocaine and engaging in sexual
    activity when the shooting occurred."   Betty Jo also stated that
    Debra "would tell [Betty Jo] this more often as she became more
    ill" and that "she wanted the truth to be known" and to "clear
    her conscience."   According to the affidavit, just before she
    died, Debra made Betty Jo promise that Betty Jo would "take care
    of her children and that [Betty Jo] would make the truth known
    about the shooting in . . . Jackson's apartment."
    The other two affidavits were from a man identified as
    Joseph Anderson.   In his first affidavit, dated May 15, 2007,
    Anderson stated that he went to the apartment on the day of the
    shooting to purchase crack cocaine from Jackson for a friend.
    Anderson stated that Jackson handed him a small packet of crack
    cocaine and that as Anderson turned to leave, he "saw . . .
    Jackson going into the bathroom with a black woman, who was
    known to [him] as Debra Bell."   In a second affidavit, dated
    July 5, 2007, Anderson added that as he was leaving the
    apartment, he passed two men arguing in the hallway.   He then
    stated that "[b]efore [he] got to the corner, [he] heard what
    sounded like gun shots coming from the area of the apartment."
    c.   Procedural history.   While his direct appeal was
    pending, the defendant filed a motion for a new trial in
    December, 2006, alleging that Debra's affidavit was newly
    10
    discovered evidence that warranted a new trial.8   Following a
    nonevidentiary hearing, the trial judge denied the motion in
    November, 2007.   Although the judge stated that she had
    considered holding an evidentiary hearing, she decided not to do
    so because the evidence was inadmissible and impeachment
    evidence alone is ordinarily insufficient to obtain a new trial.
    She accordingly denied the motion on these grounds.
    Specifically, the judge concluded that the affidavit was
    inadmissible because it did not meet the requirements of the
    dying declaration exception.   Because the judge determined that
    the affidavit was inadmissible, she did not reach the other
    issues raised by the defendant's motion for a new trial.       The
    defendant filed a second motion for a new trial in April, 2012,
    this time alleging ineffective assistance of counsel due to the
    failure to engage a sleep deprivation or drug use expert and a
    violation of his right to a public trial because of the
    exclusion of the defendant's mother and friend.    The judge
    denied this motion in August, 2012.
    This court then heard the defendant's consolidated appeal
    from the convictions of murder in the first degree and unlawful
    possession of a firearm, and from the denial of the defendant's
    8 Debra died on December 19, 2006, a week after the
    defendant filed his first motion for a new trial. The defendant
    later filed the affidavits of Betty Jo and Anderson in support
    of the first motion for a new trial.
    11
    motions for a new trial.    See Drayton I, 473 Mass. at 24-25.      We
    rejected the claims of error at trial that the defendant
    asserted, both on direct appeal and in his second motion for a
    new trial, and declined to grant the defendant relief under G. L.
    c. 278, § 33E.   Id.   With regard to the defendant's first motion
    for a new trial based on newly discovered evidence, however, we
    concluded that, under the unusual circumstances of this case,
    there was a substantial issue whether Debra's affidavit falls
    within a narrow, constitutionally based exception to the hearsay
    rule, which applies where otherwise inadmissible hearsay is
    critical to the defense and bears persuasive guarantees of
    trustworthiness.    Id. at 40.   We therefore remanded the matter
    for an evidentiary hearing on that issue.     See id. at 25.
    On remand, a different judge in the Superior Court
    conducted the evidentiary hearing.9    At the hearing, the only
    witness who testified was Grossberg.    Grossberg testified that
    he tried to locate Debra prior to trial and hired an
    investigator to find her but was unsuccessful.    Grossberg then
    testified that Debra contacted him "out of the blue" in October,
    2006.    When she came to his office, she "looked very sickly and
    was wearing a scarf to cover her head."     She told Grossberg that
    she knew she was dying.    A few months later, Betty Jo contacted
    9 The case was heard by a different judge on remand because
    the original trial judge had retired.
    12
    Grossberg and informed him that Debra had died.   Betty Jo spoke
    with Grossberg at his office and signed her affidavit.     Anderson
    also met with Grossberg at his office and signed his two
    affidavits.10
    The motion judge concluded that Debra's affidavit was
    admissible because it met the test articulated by this court in
    Drayton I, 473 Mass. at 36.   Specifically, the judge found that
    Debra was motivated to come forward by "her certain impending
    death and her desire to clear her conscience" and that "no
    evidence of any other motivating circumstance was presented."
    The Commonwealth did not produce "any evidence that Debra had
    any prior relationship to the defendant . . . that might have
    motivated her actions."   The judge also found that the other
    affidavits "provide[d] credible corroboration for Debra's
    statements, further demonstrating the statements'
    trustworthiness."   The judge credited Grossberg's testimony on
    the circumstances surrounding the affidavits from Betty Jo and
    Anderson, finding that "the affidavits, particularly Betty Jo's,
    [were] properly viewed as credible."   In concluding that Debra's
    affidavit was trustworthy, the judge noted that there was "no
    10The motion judge noted that it was not clear how Joseph
    Anderson had come to attorney Bernard Grossberg's attention but
    credited Grossberg's testimony regarding the statements in the
    affidavits. Grossberg testified that he did not know about
    Anderson until Debra mentioned him in her affidavit.
    13
    evidence calling into question the authenticity of these
    affidavits or the veracity of their content."    The judge also
    concluded that the affidavit was newly discovered evidence as
    Debra was unavailable and, given Betty Jo's prior statements,
    Grossberg had no reasonable expectation that she had any
    exculpatory information.    As the affidavits were newly
    discovered and cast real doubt on the justice of the defendant's
    convictions, the judge therefore granted the defendant's motion
    for a new trial.
    2.    Discussion.   Where the Commonwealth appeals from the
    grant of a defendant's motion for a new trial, we consider
    whether the judge committed a significant error of law or abuse
    of discretion in allowing the defendant's motion.    Commonwealth
    v. Kolenevic, 
    471 Mass. 664
    , 672 (2015), S.C., 
    478 Mass. 189
    (2017).   The issue is whether the judge's decision resulted from
    "a clear error of judgment in weighing the factors relevant to
    the decision . . . such that the decision falls outside the
    range of reasonable alternatives" (quotation and citation
    omitted).   
    Id.,
     quoting L.L. v. Commonwealth, 
    470 Mass. 169
    , 185
    n.27 (2014).   "When, as here, the motion judge did not preside
    at trial, we defer to that judge's assessment of the credibility
    of witnesses at the hearing on the new trial motion, but we
    regard ourselves in as good a position as the motion judge to
    assess the trial record."   Commonwealth v. Cousin, 
    478 Mass. 14
    608, 615 (2018), quoting Commonwealth v. Grace, 
    397 Mass. 303
    ,
    307 (1986).   "We review de novo any findings of the motion judge
    that were based entirely on the documentary evidence," which, in
    this case, includes the affidavits.    Commonwealth v. Thomas, 
    469 Mass. 531
    , 539 (2014).    "We accept other findings that were
    based on testimony at the evidentiary hearing and do not disturb
    them where they are not clearly erroneous."    
    Id.
        "However, we
    'make an independent determination as to the correctness of the
    judge's application of constitutional principles to the facts as
    found.'"   
    Id.,
     quoting Commonwealth v. Tremblay, 
    460 Mass. 199
    ,
    205 (2011).
    In Drayton I, this court held that Debra's affidavit may be
    admissible if it meets the two-part test set forth in Chambers,
    
    410 U.S. at 302
    .11   Drayton I, 473 Mass. at 36.     In Drayton I, we
    also held that the first part of that test, whether the
    affidavit would have been critical to the defense, was clearly
    satisfied in this case.   Id.   We left undecided three distinct
    issues to be addressed at the evidentiary hearing on remand.
    First, the motion judge was to determine whether the affidavit
    met the second part of the test for admissibility, which
    examines whether the affidavit bears "persuasive assurances of
    11The Commonwealth argues that we should overturn our
    decision in Drayton I insofar as it recognizes a
    constitutionally based exception to the hearsay rule. For the
    reasons stated in Drayton I, we decline to do so.
    15
    trustworthiness."   See id., quoting Chambers, 
    supra.
       Second, if
    the affidavit were determined to be admissible, the motion judge
    then had to determine whether the affidavit was properly viewed
    as newly discovered evidence.    Drayton I, supra at 38-39.
    Third, the judge had to determine whether the affidavit casts
    real doubt on the justice of the defendant's convictions.     Id.
    We address each of these issues in turn.
    a.   Whether the affidavit bears persuasive assurances of
    trustworthiness.    Because the affidavit "plainly would have been
    critical to the defense," we held in Drayton I that the
    admissibility of the affidavit depended on whether it bears
    "persuasive assurances of trustworthiness."    Drayton I, 473
    Mass. at 36, quoting Chambers, 
    410 U.S. at 302
    .    We also
    highlighted several elements that seemed to support the
    affidavit's trustworthiness.    See Drayton I, supra at 36-38.
    Following the evidentiary hearing, the motion judge found that
    the affidavit does bear persuasive assurances of trustworthiness
    because of Debra's impending death, the absence of any other
    motive, and the corroboration that exists for the affidavit.
    The motion judge found that Debra's statements were
    "motivated by her certain impending death and her desire to
    clear her conscience in the brief time remaining to her."     In
    Drayton I, we drew parallels between the reliability of Debra's
    statements, in light of her impending death, and the reliability
    16
    of statements that fall within the dying declaration exception.
    Id. at 37 ("while Debra's affidavit fails to satisfy the
    technical requirements for the dying declaration hearsay
    exception, it appears to fall within the rationale for that
    exception").   The motion judge found that "[t]he facts revealed
    by the evidentiary hearing" supported this conclusion because
    Debra appeared sickly and emotional and died soon after signing
    the affidavit.   The motion judge also credited Grossberg's
    testimony about Debra's health and demeanor at the time that she
    signed the affidavit.
    The motion judge also found no evidence of any motivation
    for Debra coming forward other than her desire to clear her
    conscience.    See Drayton I, 470 Mass. at 37 (absence of motive
    to lie "tend[s] to support the trustworthiness of Debra's
    statement").   Betty Jo stated in her affidavit that "just
    before" Debra died, Debra told Betty Jo "that she wanted the
    truth to be known about the shooting in . . . Jackson's
    apartment."    The motion judge was further persuaded by the fact
    that Debra contacted Grossberg unprompted and "out of the blue."
    Grossberg testified that he searched for Debra both before and
    after the trial but was unsuccessful.   The motion judge also
    observed that there is no evidence of any connection between
    Debra and the defendant that would have motivated her to come
    17
    forward and lie on his behalf.12    We highlighted the absence of a
    motive for Debra as potentially persuasive in Drayton I and
    something that could be brought out at the evidentiary hearing.
    See id. at 37 & 38 n.6.    After both sides were given the
    opportunity to develop the record at the hearing, the motion
    judge ultimately found that "no evidence of any other motivating
    circumstance was presented."
    Another element that the motion judge found persuasive was
    the corroboration that exists for Debra's statements.    In
    Chambers, the United States Supreme Court found it persuasive
    that the statements at issue in that case were "corroborated by
    some other evidence in the case."    Chambers, 
    410 U.S. at
    300-
    301.    Here, as the motion judge correctly observed, Debra's
    affidavit is corroborated by Betty Jo's affidavit and Anderson's
    We also note that the judge concluded that the statements
    12
    Debra gave to Grossberg, rather than those given to the police,
    are more likely to be true. As Debra explained in her
    affidavit, Debra had various reasons to lie in her initial
    statement to the police. The affidavit stated that she was
    "afraid" and that she "did not want to get involved in the
    case." She also stated that the officers "kept coming to [her]
    home and harassed [her] children and family until [she] agreed
    to meet with [them]" and that they "told [her] that they would
    take care of arrest warrants pending against [her]." Thus,
    while Debra had ample motivation to lie in her original
    statement to the police, there is no evidence of any motivation
    to lie in her affidavit. We discern no error in the judge's
    analysis.
    18
    affidavits.     The motion judge found each of these affidavits to
    be credible, particularly the affidavit of Betty Jo.13
    We discern no error in the judge's analysis or
    determination that Debra's affidavit bears "persuasive
    assurances of trustworthiness."     Our own analysis confirms his
    findings.    We reiterate that this exception is very narrow and
    will be applicable "only in the rarest of cases."     Drayton I,
    473 Mass. at 40.     This case, however, is one in which the
    application of this constitutional exception is appropriate.
    b.     Whether the affidavit constitutes newly discovered
    evidence.    "Where the defendant moves for a new trial on the
    basis of newly discovered evidence, the defendant 'must
    establish both that the evidence is newly discovered and that it
    casts real doubt on the justice of the conviction,' which
    entails a showing that it "'probably would have been a real
    factor in the jury's deliberations.'"     Drayton I, 473 Mass. at
    31, quoting Grace, 
    397 Mass. at
    305–306.     Although "[t]he
    inquiry into whether the defendant has satisfied the new trial
    standard is conceptually distinct from the threshold inquiry
    13Neither Betty Jo nor Anderson testified at the hearing.
    Betty Jo died prior to the hearing, and Anderson could not be
    located. The motion judge, however, credited Grossberg's
    testimony concerning the circumstances that prompted Betty Jo
    and Anderson to provide their affidavits. Our analysis of the
    documentary evidence is consistent with the judge's analysis,
    and we defer to his finding on credibility regarding Grossberg.
    19
    into whether Debra's affidavit is admissible [evidence], . . .
    many of the same considerations that inform a judge's assessment
    of the affidavit's trustworthiness may well also inform the
    judge's assessment whether it casts real doubt on the justice of
    the conviction."    Drayton I, supra at 39.
    "To establish that evidence is 'newly discovered,' the
    defendant must show that the evidence was 'unknown to the
    defendant or his counsel and not reasonably discoverable by them
    at the time of trial."     Drayton I, 473 Mass. at 39, quoting
    Grace, 
    397 Mass. at 306
    .    The motion judge correctly concluded
    that the statements in Debra's affidavit were newly discovered
    evidence.
    It is undisputed that Debra was unavailable at the time of
    trial.    Additionally, the motion judge found that, even if Betty
    Jo were called as a witness at trial, Grossberg had no reason to
    believe that she had any exculpatory information contradicting
    Jackson's testimony until after the defendant's convictions.       In
    support of this, the judge pointed to her testimony at the
    suppression hearing one month before the trial, in which she
    merely repeated the story she told police and refused to speak
    with Grossberg.    At trial, her attendance had to be secured by a
    capias.   Given Betty Jo's uncooperativeness and her prior
    testimony, there was no reason to believe that had she been
    called as a witness at trial, she would have revealed any of the
    20
    information contained in Debra's affidavit.    The motion judge
    properly found that, even if she knew of Debra's statements at
    the time of trial, Betty Jo's consistently uncooperative
    behavior prior to trial strongly suggests that she would not
    have revealed these statements if the defense called her to
    testify.   Again, we discern no error in the judge's analysis.
    c.     Whether the affidavit casts real doubt on the justice
    of the convictions.    A new trial is warranted "[w]here we
    determine that newly discovered evidence likely would have
    functioned as a real factor in the jury's deliberations."
    Commonwealth v. Cowels, 
    470 Mass. 607
    , 623 (2015).    In
    determining whether the newly discovered evidence would have
    been a real factor in the jury's deliberations, we focus on
    "what effect the omission might have had on the jury" rather
    than on whether the verdict would have been different.     
    Id.,
    quoting Commonwealth v. Tucceri, 
    412 Mass. 401
    , 411 (1992).
    "The over-all strength or weakness of the evidence presented
    against a defendant is significant . . . because it provides the
    context within which to assess whether the newly discovered
    evidence would have been a real factor in the jury's
    deliberations."   Cowels, supra.
    While "[n]ewly discovered evidence that tends merely to
    impeach the credibility of a witness will not ordinarily be the
    basis of a new trial," Commonwealth v. Toney, 
    385 Mass. 575
    , 581
    21
    (1982), a new trial may be warranted where, as here, the
    Commonwealth's case depends on the testimony of a single witness
    and the newly discovered evidence contradicts that testimony.
    See Cowels, 470 Mass. at 621.14
    The motion judge found that Debra's affidavit has precisely
    that effect in this case.   We agree.   The Commonwealth's case
    against the defendant depended on the testimony of Jackson, a
    witness with extensive credibility issues.   The motion judge
    properly recognized that, beyond Jackson's testimony, there was
    no evidence that pointed to the defendant as the person who
    killed Greene.   The statements in Debra's affidavit do more than
    just impeach Jackson's testimony; they undermine the
    14In Commonwealth v. Cowels, 
    470 Mass. 607
     (2015), the
    defendants were convicted of murder in the first degree in the
    stabbing death of the victim. The Commonwealth's main witness
    testified to a timeline that placed the defendants at the
    witness's apartment at various points throughout the night,
    first with the victim and then later without her. 
    Id.
     at 609-
    610. The witness testified that when the defendants returned
    without the victim they borrowed some clothes and made various
    threatening statements indicating that they had killed the
    victim. 
    Id.
     The only physical evidence linking the defendants
    to the witness's home were two towels with bloodstains, one of
    which was too small to be tested. Id. at 610-611. After the
    defendants were convicted, deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) testing
    revealed that the blood on the towel did not belong to either of
    the defendants or the victim. Id. at 614. The defendants
    sought a new trial on the basis of this and other newly
    discovered evidence, but the trial judge denied the motion. Id.
    at 614-615. On appeal, we concluded that a new trial was
    warranted because the DNA testing negated key pieces of evidence
    that likely were a real factor in the jury's deliberations. Id.
    at 623-624.
    22
    Commonwealth's entire case against the defendant.    Therefore,
    the statements are more than just mere impeachment evidence and
    are a sufficient basis for a new trial.
    The motion judge accordingly concluded that Debra's
    affidavit likely would have been a "significant factor" in the
    jury's deliberations in this case.    We also agree with this
    determination.   The Commonwealth's over-all case against the
    defendant was dependent on Jackson's testimony, which Debra
    directly contradicted.    There was also little evidence to
    corroborate Jackson's testimony.    The motion judge therefore
    properly concluded that Debra's affidavit cast real doubt on the
    justice of the convictions.
    3.   Conclusion.     For these reasons, we hold that the motion
    judge did not abuse his discretion in concluding that the
    affidavit is admissible and newly discovered evidence that casts
    real doubt on the justice of the defendant's convictions and
    that, therefore, the defendant is entitled to a new trial.       The
    judgments of conviction are vacated and set aside, and the
    matter is remanded to the Superior Court for a new trial.
    So ordered.