Deal v. Massachusetts Parole Board ( 2020 )


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    SJC-12746
    TIMOTHY DEAL   vs.   MASSACHUSETTS PAROLE BOARD.
    Middlesex.          November 5, 2019. - April 6, 2020.
    Present:     Gants, C.J., Lenk, Gaziano, Lowy, Budd, Cypher,
    & Kafker, JJ.
    Parole. Imprisonment, Parole.       Administrative Law, Decision,
    Judicial review.
    Civil action commenced in the Superior Court Department on
    March 14, 2018.
    The case was heard by C. William Barrett, J., on motions
    for judgment on the pleadings.
    The Supreme Judicial Court granted an application for
    direct appellate review.
    Merritt Schnipper (Barbara Kaban also present) for the
    plaintiff.
    Matthew P. Landry, Assistant Attorney General, for the
    defendant.
    David Rassoul Rangaviz, Committee for Public Counsel
    Services, & Benjamin Niehaus, for Massachusetts Association of
    Criminal Defense Lawyers & another, amici curiae, submitted a
    brief.
    2
    BUDD, J.   The plaintiff, Timothy Deal, is serving a life
    sentence for committing murder in the second degree when he was
    seventeen.   He sought review of the parole board's (board's)
    denial of his application for parole in the Superior Court,
    alleging that the board abused its discretion by failing to
    analyze properly the "distinctive attributes of youth" in coming
    to its decision.    See Diatchenko v. District Attorney for the
    Suffolk Dist., 
    466 Mass. 655
    , 675 (2013) (Lenk, J., concurring)
    (Diatchenko I), quoting Miller v. Alabama, 
    567 U.S. 460
    , 472
    (2012).   The judge entered judgment in favor of the board, and
    the plaintiff appealed.    We allowed Deal's application for
    direct appellate review, and for the reasons detailed infra, we
    affirm the judge's order allowing the board's motion for
    judgment on the pleadings.1
    Background.    1.   Underlying facts.   We recount the facts as
    found by the board, supplemented by uncontested facts presented
    in Deal's parole application and hearing.     The victim and Deal
    were next-door neighbors and close friends.     In September 2001,
    the victim, who was facing drug charges, agreed to become an
    informant for police and purchased marijuana from Deal in a
    "controlled buy."   Based on information provided by the victim,
    1 We acknowledge the amicus brief submitted in support of
    Deal by the Massachusetts Association of Criminal Defense
    Lawyers and the youth advocacy division of the Committee for
    Public Counsel Services.
    3
    police secured a warrant to search Deal's home, where Deal
    shared a bedroom with his older brother, and subsequently
    arrested Deal and his brother on drug and firearm charges.
    In January 2002, after Deal's release on bail, he and a
    companion went to the victim's home.    A fight ensued between
    Deal and the victim, during which Deal stabbed the victim
    multiple times.   The victim died from his wounds that evening.
    Two days after his arrest on murder charges, Deal telephoned the
    victim's mother; when she asked why he killed her son, Deal
    responded, "[The victim] was a snitch. . . .     [W]e tried to keep
    it from you."
    Deal was seventeen years old at the time of the killing.
    He was indicted and tried for murder in the first degree, and a
    jury convicted him of the lesser included offense of murder in
    the second degree.    Deal was sentenced to life with the
    possibility of parole after fifteen years, making him eligible
    for parole in early 2017.
    2.     The parole hearing.   Deal applied for parole in
    December of 2016.    In advance of his parole hearing, Deal
    submitted a memorandum describing his childhood, his
    rehabilitation, and his plans for housing and employment if
    paroled.    Deal also submitted a report by a forensic
    psychologist concluding that Deal would be a low risk for
    recidivism if paroled based on risk assessments and an interview
    4
    with Deal.   The application included submissions in support of
    parole from more than ten friends and family members, including
    the victim's mother.    The Boston police department and the
    district attorney for the Suffolk district submitted letters in
    opposition, both alleging that Deal killed the victim in
    retaliation for acting as an informant.
    At the hearing in December 2016, Deal gave an opening
    statement apologizing to the victim's family and stating his
    responsibility and regret for the murder.   When asked to give
    his account of the killing, Deal stated that he had not planned
    or intended to kill the victim in retaliation for cooperating
    with police; rather, an argument over "something petty"
    escalated into a fight during which Deal grabbed a knife from a
    friend and then stabbed the victim multiple times.    Board
    members noted their concern that Deal may have killed the victim
    in retaliation for acting as a police informant, questioning in
    particular why, two days after Deal's arrest for murder, he
    called the victim's mother and told her the victim was a
    "snitch."    In response, Deal characterized the telephone call as
    an attempt to give context for why he, a close friend of the
    victim's family, ended up fighting and killing the victim.
    In its written decision, the board denied parole and
    scheduled Deal's next review for December 2020, determining that
    Deal "[had] not demonstrated a level of rehabilitative progress
    5
    that would make his release compatible with the welfare of
    society," and that Deal's "version of the offense . . . [was]
    not plausible."     After exhausting his administrative appeals,
    Deal challenged the board's decision by bringing a complaint in
    the nature of certiorari in the Superior Court.     See Diatchenko
    v. District Attorney for the Suffolk Dist., 
    471 Mass. 12
    , 30
    (2015) (Diatchenko II).     A judge in the Superior Court granted
    the board's motion for judgment on the pleadings and denied
    Deal's cross motion for the same, concluding that the board's
    decision was not an abuse of discretion.     We allowed Deal's
    application for direct appellate review.
    Discussion.    General Laws c. 127, § 130, sets forth the
    standard the board is to apply when making parole decisions.
    The board may grant parole only where it finds,
    "after consideration of a risk and needs assessment, that
    there is a reasonable probability that, if the prisoner is
    released with appropriate conditions and community
    supervision, the prisoner will live and remain at liberty
    without violating the law and that release is not
    incompatible with the welfare of society."
    Id. The board
    is afforded significant deference with regard to
    its parole decisions.     As the granting of parole is a
    discretionary function of the executive branch, generally the
    judiciary's role is limited to reviewing the constitutionality
    of the board's decision and proceedings.     Commonwealth v. Cole,
    6
    
    468 Mass. 294
    , 302-303 (2014).   See, e.g., Crowell v.
    Massachusetts Parole Bd., 
    477 Mass. 106
    (2017) (reviewing claims
    that parole decision violated constitution and statutes, and
    remanding for further development of record); Quegan v.
    Massachusetts Parole Bd., 
    423 Mass. 834
    (1996) (reviewing
    constitutional claims that board may not consider refusal to
    admit guilt in parole determination); Doucette v. Massachusetts
    Parole Bd., 
    86 Mass. App. Ct. 531
    (2014) (reviewing alleged due
    process violations in parole revocation proceeding, and
    conducting certiorari review of merits of board's decision to
    revoke parole).
    Parole decisions for juvenile homicide offenders like the
    plaintiff are handled differently, however.   Unlike adult
    offenders, juveniles have "diminished culpability and greater
    prospects for reform, and, therefore, they do not deserve the
    most severe punishments," including sentences of life without
    parole (quotations omitted).   Diatchenko 
    I, 466 Mass. at 659
    -
    660, citing 
    Miller, 567 U.S. at 471
    .   "[B]ecause the brain of a
    juvenile is not fully developed, either structurally or
    functionally, by the age of eighteen, a judge cannot find with
    confidence that a particular offender, at that point in time, is
    irretrievably depraved."   Diatchenko I, supra at 670.    In
    particular, "[r]elying on science, social science, and common
    sense," the United States Supreme Court has pointed to three
    7
    "distinctive characteristics of youth" that make juveniles
    constitutionally different from adults for purposes of
    sentencing.
    Id. at 660,
    663.
    These characteristics include what are commonly referred to
    as the Miller factors:    (1) children's "lack of maturity" and
    "underdeveloped sense of responsibility, leading to
    recklessness, impulsivity, and heedless risk-taking"; (2) their
    "vulnerability to negative influences and outside pressures,
    including from their family and peers," and relatedly, their
    "limited control over their own environment" and inability to
    "extricate themselves from horrific, crime-producing settings";
    and (3) their "unique capacity to change as they grow older"
    (alteration and quotations omitted).      Diatchenko 
    II, 471 Mass. at 30
    , citing Diatchenko 
    I, 466 Mass. at 660
    .     See 
    Miller, 567 U.S. at 471
    .
    Thus, we held that juvenile offenders who have been
    convicted of murder in the first degree may not be sentenced to
    life in prison without the possibility of parole.     Diatchenko 
    I, 466 Mass. at 669-671
    .    We went on to hold that juvenile
    offenders sentenced to a mandatory term of life in prison,
    (i.e., those convicted of murder in the first or second degree)
    are entitled to a "meaningful opportunity to obtain release [on
    parole] based on demonstrated maturity and rehabilitation"
    (citation omitted).
    Id. at 674.
      See Commonwealth v. Okoro, 471
    
    8 Mass. 51
    , 62-63 (2015); G. L. c. 119, § 72B.   We further held
    that a "meaningful opportunity to obtain release based on
    demonstrated maturity and rehabilitation" means that the board
    must consider the "distinctive attributes of youth" in
    determining whether the juvenile is likely to reoffend.
    Diatchenko 
    II, 471 Mass. at 23
    .
    In addition, although in the normal course parole decisions
    are not subject to judicial review, 
    Cole, 468 Mass. at 302-303
    ,
    we have determined that to ensure that juvenile homicide
    offenders receive a meaningful opportunity for parole, they are
    entitled to judicial review of board decisions on their parole
    applications under the abuse of discretion standard.2    Diatchenko
    
    II, 471 Mass. at 14
    , 31.   "In this context, a denial of a parole
    application by the board will constitute an abuse of discretion
    only if the board essentially failed to take [the Miller]
    factors into account, or did so in a cursory way."3
    Id. at 31.
    2 Juvenile homicide offenders also must have access to
    counsel and access to funds to retain counsel and experts.
    Diatchenko v. District Attorney for the Suffolk Dist., 
    471 Mass. 12
    , 14 (2015) (Diatchenko II).
    3 This abuse of discretion standard is grounded in our
    balancing of the two constitutional considerations 
    discussed supra
    : the fundamental imperative of proportionality in
    sentencing under art. 26 of the Massachusetts Declaration of
    Rights, and the "strict separation of judicial and executive
    powers" under art. 30. See Diatchenko 
    II, 471 Mass. at 27-28
    .
    9
    The plaintiff contends that the board abused its discretion
    by denying him parole without more thoroughly analyzing various
    factors related to his youth.   Deal argues that in order to
    enable effective judicial review, and guarantee juvenile
    homicide offenders a meaningful opportunity to obtain release,
    the parole board's decisions must "expressly address in writing
    the youth-specific considerations present in each case, place
    that evidence in the context of the overall parole standard, and
    explain by reference to that evidence why the [b]oard
    nevertheless denied parole if it did."   The judge determined
    that "[w]hile the better practice may have been for the board to
    more specifically outline its findings and discussion in
    relation to the individual Miller factors, as opposed to its
    general statement that it considered them, such a level of
    detail is not required, particularly given the discretion
    afforded to the board."   Upon review, we conclude that the board
    did not abuse its discretion, as it adequately considered the
    requisite youth-related factors.4
    In support of his argument, the plaintiff points to the
    fact that the board simply recites the Miller factors as among
    the considerations relevant to its decision without connecting
    those factors to any of the evidence presented at the hearing.
    4 We review the Superior Court judge's ruling de novo.
    Champa v. Weston Pub. Sch., 
    473 Mass. 86
    , 90 (2015).
    10
    We agree with the plaintiff and the concurrence that merely
    stating that the board considered the Miller factors, without
    more, would constitute a cursory analysis that is incompatible
    with art. 26 of the Massachusetts Declaration of Rights.     See
    Diatchenko 
    II, 471 Mass. at 31
    .   However, upon review of the
    board's written decision, it is clear that the board's single
    mention of the Miller factors was not the beginning and end of
    the board's consideration of those factors.
    The decision described various negative influences and
    stressors in Deal's environment leading up to the killing,
    including Deal's adult brother enlisting his aid in dealing
    drugs, his family's mounting financial and legal hardships, and
    his struggle to adapt to a change in schools.   Although the
    board did not explicitly state the connection, these facts
    clearly relate to Deal's "vulnerability to negative influences
    and outside pressures, including from [his] family and peers"
    and his "limited control over [his] own environment" (alteration
    and quotation omitted).   See Diatchenko 
    II, 471 Mass. at 30
    ,
    citing 
    Miller, 567 U.S. at 471
    .   Further, although the board
    found that Deal's "version of the offense" was not plausible,
    its written decision acknowledged the "loss of friendship" and
    escalating confrontations between Deal and the victim stemming
    from Deal's arrest on information provided by the victim --
    facts that illuminate the board's consideration of Deal's "lack
    11
    of maturity . . . leading to recklessness, impulsivity, and
    heedless risk-taking."    See Diatchenko 
    II, supra
    .     Finally, the
    board's decision noted Deal's participation in various
    rehabilitative programs, employment, and religious activities
    while incarcerated, each of which pertains to Deal's "unique
    capacity to change as [he] grow[s] older."    See
    id. Although the
    board's decision did not designate each fact
    to a particular attribute of youth, the decision's inclusion of
    these facts supports the board's certification that it did
    consider the Miller factors in a noncursory way.      Had the board
    expressly connected these facts to the Miller factors, there
    would have been no doubt that it gave thoughtful consideration
    to those factors.   Making these connections explicit, rather
    than implicit, will allow the board to make clear to reviewing
    courts that it gave due consideration to the Miller factors.
    The plaintiff also argues that the board impermissibly
    based its decision on factors that are "irrelevant, or at least
    of diminished significance, to juvenile cases."    In particular,
    Deal contends that the board focused more on the conclusion that
    Deal's version of events was "not plausible" than on the
    attributes of youth.     The plaintiff's argument fundamentally
    misunderstands our holding in Diatchenko II.    Although we held
    that the board must consider the "distinctive attributes of
    youth" in order for a juvenile homicide offender to have a
    12
    "meaningful opportunity to obtain release based on demonstrated
    maturity and rehabilitation," we did not say that the board's
    decision had to rise or fall on those factors.    See Diatchenko
    
    II, 471 Mass. at 23
    , 30.   It is apparent from the decision that
    the board was primarily concerned about the plaintiff's failure
    to provide a "plausible" account of why he stabbed the victim
    fourteen years after he committed the crime.     This concern is
    indicative of the plaintiff's incomplete "acknowledgement of his
    wrongdoing or . . . his refusal to acknowledge his guilt" --
    considerations which may be relevant to rehabilitation, see
    
    Quegan, 423 Mass. at 836
    -- rather than a rigid application of
    the traditional penological justifications (incapacitation,
    retribution, or deterrence), which are "suspect" as applied to
    juvenile sentences, see Diatchenko 
    I, 466 Mass. at 670-671
    .5
    Further, the board's concern, noted in its decision, that Deal
    had not gone on record to take responsibility for the killing
    until ten years after the crime reinforces the board's
    legitimate reasoning that a longer period of rehabilitation
    5 Importantly, the board's written decision did not adopt
    the district attorney's argument that "[a] positive vote for
    parole . . . may send the wrong message to other criminals."
    Although the board noted its concern that Deal may have killed
    the victim in retaliation for being a "snitch," it did so in the
    context of Deal's rehabilitation, as evidenced by his possible
    lack of acknowledgment of the full severity of his crime.
    13
    would be necessary before release is compatible with the welfare
    of society.
    The plaintiff argues as well that the board abused its
    discretion by denying parole without discussing the details of
    the risk assessment and report conducted by a forensic
    psychologist who concluded that Deal would be a low risk for
    recidivism if paroled.   In its decision, the board noted that it
    "considered testimony" from the psychologist and that it
    "considered a risk and needs assessment," without discussing
    what the expert and risk assessment found or explaining why
    those findings were not enough to warrant parole.   By denying
    parole on the grounds that Deal "[had] not demonstrated a level
    of rehabilitative progress that would make his release
    compatible with the welfare of society," the necessary
    implication is that, in the board's view, Deal's incomplete
    rehabilitation contradicted the risk assessment and the forensic
    psychologist's conclusion that Deal would be a low risk to
    recidivate.   "[T]he opinion of a witness testifying on behalf of
    a sex offender need not be accepted by the hearing examiner even
    where the board does not present any contrary expert testimony."
    See Doe, Sex Offender Registry Bd. No. 68549 v. Sex Offender
    Registry Bd., 
    470 Mass. 102
    , 112 (2014), quoting Doe, Sex
    Offender Registry Bd. No. 10800 v. Sex Offender Registry Bd.,
    
    459 Mass. 603
    , 637 (2011).   Nevertheless, the better practice,
    14
    as described in the concurrence, would be to articulate the
    reasons and evidence overcoming the contrary expert opinion.
    As 
    discussed supra
    , ultimately the board must determine
    whether there is "a reasonable probability" that the applicant
    would not recidivate if given the proper support, and that
    "release is not incompatible with the welfare of society."     See
    G. L. c. 127, § 130.   Although our review of parole decisions
    for juvenile homicide offenders is limited, we note that here,
    even taking into consideration youth-related factors, the board
    had reason to conclude that the plaintiff had failed to
    demonstrate a "level of rehabilitative progress that would make
    his release compatible with the welfare of society."   The Miller
    factors, although an important consideration, may or may not
    play a determinative role in the board's decision depending on
    the circumstances of a particular applicant.   In denying Deal's
    parole application, the board determined that Deal's incomplete
    rehabilitation, as evidenced by his failure to give a plausible
    account of his motivations for killing the victim, outweighed
    the favorable Miller evidence.   In future cases where, as here,
    evidence relevant to the Miller factors militates in favor of
    release but the board nevertheless denies parole, the better
    practice would be to specify the reasons and supporting facts
    that overcome the Miller considerations.   Additionally, in light
    of the concerns raised by the concurrence, where the board bases
    15
    its denial of parole on a determination that the applicant's
    version of events is not plausible, the board should indicate
    both why that version is not plausible and how that
    implausibility bears on the applicant's likelihood to recidivate
    or the compatibility of release with the welfare of society.
    Conclusion.   For the foregoing reasons, we conclude that
    the board's decision denying Deal's parole application was not
    an abuse of discretion.   The board based its decision on the
    statutory standard of rehabilitation and compatibility with the
    welfare of society, and its consideration of the distinctive
    attributes of youth was not merely cursory.   Accordingly, the
    Superior Court judge's order granting the board's motion for
    judgment on the pleadings and denying Deal's motion for the same
    is affirmed.
    So ordered.
    GANTS, C.J. (concurring, with whom Lenk, J., joins).     In
    Diatchenko v. District Attorney for the Suffolk Dist., 
    466 Mass. 655
    , 671 (2013) (Diatchenko I), we held that life imprisonment
    for a juvenile, even when convicted of murder, is cruel or
    unusual punishment in violation of art. 26 of the Massachusetts
    Declaration of Rights unless the juvenile has the possibility of
    being released on parole.   We also held that, when the juvenile
    becomes eligible for parole, the parole board (board) must
    provide the juvenile with a "meaningful opportunity to obtain
    release based on demonstrated maturity and rehabilitation."
    Id. at 674,
    quoting Graham v. Florida, 
    560 U.S. 48
    , 75 (2010).     And
    in Diatchenko v. District Attorney for the Suffolk Dist., 
    471 Mass. 12
    , 24-29 (2015) (Diatchenko II), we declared that a
    "meaningful opportunity to obtain release" requires not only a
    right to the assistance of counsel and a right to have access to
    the assistance of expert witnesses, but also a right of judicial
    review "to ensure that the board exercises its discretionary
    authority to make a parole decision for a juvenile homicide
    offender in a constitutional manner."
    In Diatchenko 
    II, supra
    at 30, we also articulated what it
    means for the board to exercise its discretionary authority in a
    constitutional manner.   Looking to the reasoning in Miller v.
    Alabama, 
    567 U.S. 460
    , 471 (2012), we stated that the board must
    consider that juveniles have "diminished culpability" for the
    2
    murder they committed because of the "distinctive attributes" of
    youth:   a "lack of maturity and an underdeveloped sense of
    responsibility, leading to recklessness, impulsivity, and
    heedless risk-taking; vulnerability to negative influences and
    outside pressures, including from their family and
    peers; . . . limited contro[l] over their own
    environment[;] . . . [and lack of] the ability to extricate
    themselves from horrific, crime-producing settings" (quotations
    and citation omitted).     Diatchenko 
    II, supra
    .   The board must
    also consider that juveniles have the "unique capacity to change
    as they grow older" and therefore "greater prospects for reform"
    (citations omitted).
    Id. Unless the
    board considers these
    distinctive attributes of youth, as well as the consequences of
    aging into adulthood, the board denies the juvenile "a real
    chance to demonstrate maturity and rehabilitation."
    Id. The purpose
    of judicial review is to ensure that "the board
    has carried out its responsibility to take into account the
    attributes or factors just described in making its decision."
    Id. Recognizing that
    "the decision whether to grant parole to a
    particular juvenile homicide offender is a discretionary
    determination by the board," we apply the abuse of discretion
    standard.
    Id. at 31.
      "[A] denial of a parole application by
    the board will constitute an abuse of discretion only if the
    3
    board essentially failed to take these factors into account, or
    did so in a cursory way."
    Id. We have
    yet to articulate how we can ensure that the board
    acted in a constitutional manner by providing a juvenile
    homicide offender a "meaningful opportunity to obtain release"
    after seriously considering the "distinctive attributes" of
    youth.   I conclude that the only way we can ensure that the
    board did not abuse its discretion is to require the board to
    show through its findings that it gave meaningful individualized
    consideration to these attributes of youth in reaching its
    decision.   I also conclude that the board's findings here fail
    to meet that requirement for three reasons.
    First, the board's decision consists of three sections:         a
    statement of the facts of the underlying murder case, a
    statement describing the evidence presented at the parole
    hearing, and the "decision."      As shown by the appendix to the
    amicus brief submitted by the Massachusetts Association of
    Criminal Defense Lawyers and the youth advocacy division of the
    Committee for Public Counsel Services, apart from two sentences
    specific to Deal, the "decision" is boilerplate language used in
    virtually all forty-five of the juvenile homicide offender
    parole decisions it reviewed, with only the name of the juvenile
    4
    changed.1   Essentially, the board simply identifies the so-called
    Miller factors and declares in all these cases that it
    1 The "decision" section is reprinted below, with the
    boilerplate language highlighted in bold:
    "The Board is of the opinion that Mr. Deal has not
    demonstrated a level of rehabilitative progress that would
    make his release compatible with the welfare of society.
    The Board recommends that Mr. Deal partake in more
    programming, such as Criminal Thinking and Restorative
    Justice. The Board believes that the version of the
    offense given by Mr. Deal is not plausible. A longer
    period of positive institutional adjustment and programming
    would be beneficial to Mr. Deal's rehabilitation. The
    Board considered all factors relevant to the Diatchenko
    decision in making this determination.
    "The applicable standard used by the Board to assess a
    candidate for parole is: 'Parole Board Members shall only
    grant a parole permit if they are of the opinion that there
    is a reasonable probability that, if such offender is
    released, the offender will live and remain at liberty
    without violating the law and that release is not
    incompatible with the welfare of society.' 
    120 C.M.R. 300
    .04. In the context of an offender convicted of first
    or second degree murder, who was a juvenile at the time the
    offense was committed, the Board takes into consideration
    the attributes of youth that distinguish juvenile homicide
    offenders from similarly situated adult offenders.
    Consideration of these factors ensures that the parole
    candidate, who was a juvenile at the time they committed
    murder, has 'a real chance to demonstrate maturity and
    rehabilitation.' Diatchenko v. District Attorney for the
    Suffolk District, 
    471 Mass. 12
    , 30 (2015); See also
    Commonwealth v. Okoro, 
    471 Mass. 51
    (2015).
    "The factors considered by the Board include the offender's
    'lack of maturity and an underdeveloped sense of
    responsibility, leading to recklessness, impulsivity, and
    heedless risk taking; vulnerability to negative influences
    and outside pressures, including from their family and
    peers; limited control over their own environment; lack of
    the ability to extricate themselves from horrific, crime-
    producing settings; and unique capacity to change as they
    5
    considered them, without demonstrating in any way how it
    considered them.   I do not suggest that the board must provide a
    detailed analysis of each Miller factor, but it must do more
    than simply declare in a perfunctory manner that it considered
    them.   There must be some meaningful individualized analysis,
    supported by evidence in the parole record, as to whether the
    Miller factors contributed to cause the parole applicant's
    participation in the murder, and as to whether his or her
    conduct while incarcerated has demonstrated that he or she has
    outgrown these attributes of youth through maturity and
    rehabilitation.
    Second, under G. L. c. 127, § 130, a parole permit "shall
    be granted only if the board is of the opinion, after
    consideration of a risk and needs assessment, that there is a
    reasonable probability that, if the prisoner is released with
    appropriate conditions and community supervision, the prisoner
    grow older.'
    Id. The Board
    has also considered a risk and
    needs assessment, and whether risk reduction programs could
    effectively minimize Mr. Deal's risk of recidivism. After
    applying this standard to the circumstances of Mr. Deal's
    case, the Board is of the opinion that Mr. Deal is not yet
    rehabilitated, and his release is not compatible with the
    welfare of society. Mr. Deal, therefore, does not merit
    parole at this time.
    "Mr. Deal's next appearance before the Board will take
    place in four years from the date of this hearing. During
    the interim, the Board encourages Mr. Deal to continue
    working towards his full rehabilitation."
    6
    will live and remain at liberty without violating the law and
    that release is not incompatible with the welfare of society."
    Section 130, therefore, requires the board to make two
    determinations:   whether "the prisoner will live and remain at
    liberty without violating the law," and whether "release is not
    incompatible with the welfare of society."
    Id. The board
    effectively conflates the two by finding that Deal's
    "rehabilitative progress," which appears to be its proxy term
    for the risk of recidivism, falls short of what would be needed
    to make his release "compatible with the welfare of society."     I
    agree with the board that the prisoner's risk of recidivism is
    the determinative factor.   See, e.g., Crowell v. Massachusetts
    Parole Bd., 
    477 Mass. 106
    , 113 (2017) ("the board must be able
    to consider whether the symptoms of a prisoner's disability mean
    that he or she has a heightened propensity to commit crime while
    released on parole"); Diatchenko 
    II, 471 Mass. at 23
    ("The
    question the board must answer for each inmate seeking parole
    [is], namely, whether he or she is likely to reoffend . . .");
    Jimenez v. Conrad, 
    678 F.3d 44
    , 46 (1st Cir. 2012) (no matter
    how good applicant's prison conduct may have been, parole shall
    be granted "only if" board finds that there is "reasonable
    probability" that prisoner will not violate law if granted
    release).
    7
    But, as the court notes, ante at      , the board's
    determination regarding Deal's risk of recidivism appears to
    rest primarily on its finding that Deal's description of his
    offense "is not plausible."   The board, however, fails to
    identify what it finds implausible about Deal's description.
    Deal accepted responsibility for the murder, expressed remorse
    for his role in it, and admitted that the victim's cooperation
    with the police, which resulted in Deal's arrest for drug and
    firearms possession, created substantial friction in what had
    once been a close relationship with a neighbor he had thought of
    as an older brother.   He also said that this was not the first
    time that he had visited the victim's house after learning that
    the victim had provided information to the police about him.
    If the board believed that, despite his denials, Deal
    entered the victim's home on the day of the killing planning to
    kill him because of the victim's cooperation with the police, or
    that he stabbed the victim with the intent to kill, it should
    say so and identify the evidence in the parole record that
    supports such a finding.   It should be noted that Deal was
    charged with murder in the first degree on the theory of
    premeditation but found guilty only of murder in the second
    degree.   As a result, we can infer that the jury, after hearing
    the evidence at trial, had a reasonable doubt whether Deal acted
    with premeditation or with an intent to kill, or both.     Where,
    8
    as here, the jury did not convict the parole applicant of the
    crime charged, the board should act with caution and care before
    it concludes that the applicant was nonetheless guilty of the
    crime charged.
    Moreover, even if the board had an adequate factual basis
    to conclude that the killing occurred differently from what was
    described by Deal, that alone cannot suffice to establish that
    Deal poses a significant risk of recidivism.   Here, Deal
    accepted his guilt; the board only challenges his version of
    events.   However, even if he had denied his guilt, there is
    little, if any, empirical support for a link between acceptance
    of guilt and a decreased likelihood of recidivism.     See, e.g.,
    Hanson & Morton-Bourgon, The Characteristics of Persistent
    Sexual Offenders:   A Meta-Analysis of Recidivism Studies, 73 J.
    Consulting & Clinical Psych. 1154, 1159 (2005) (meta-analysis of
    sex offender recidivism studies concluding that denial of guilt
    "had little or no relationship with recidivism"); Harkins,
    Howard, Barnett, Wakeling, & Miles, Relationships Between
    Denial, Risk, and Recidivism in Sexual Offenders, 44 Archives
    Sexual Behav. 157, 157 (2015) ("the presumption that denial
    represents increased risk, which is common in much of the
    decision making surrounding sex offenders, should be
    reconsidered").
    9
    Even before these studies, we recognized the limited role
    that the failure to acknowledge guilt should play in a parole
    decision:     "The absence of such an acknowledgment [of guilt]
    provides no weight on the scale in favor of parole, and thus, in
    a sense, has a negative effect on a prisoner's parole
    application."    Quegan v. Massachusetts Parole Bd., 
    423 Mass. 834
    , 837 (1996).     And although we did not reach the question, we
    recognized that due process might forbid "denial of parole
    solely because a prisoner, who was otherwise fully qualified for
    release on parole, did not acknowledge his guilt."
    Id. Indeed, if
    a prisoner's failure to acknowledge guilt alone were to
    suffice to support a denial of parole, a prisoner wrongfully
    convicted of murder as a juvenile might never be paroled unless
    he or she falsely accepted responsibility for a crime he or she
    never committed.    See Medwed, The Innocent Prisoner's Dilemma:
    Consequences of Failing to Admit Guilt at Parole Hearings, 
    93 Iowa L
    . Rev. 491, 529 (2008) ("Proclaiming innocence at a parole
    hearing typically harms one's chances for release . . . while
    'admitting' guilt can serve as a mitigating factor").
    Third, § 130 requires the board to consider "a risk and
    needs assessment" in evaluating the prisoner's risk of
    recidivism.    G. L. c. 127, § 130.   The parole record reflects
    two risk assessments.     The first is the Department of
    Correction's own objective risk assessment, which assesses
    10
    Deal's risk of recidivism as low, and also assesses his criminal
    thinking, his anger, and his substance abuse as low.   The second
    was conducted by Deal's expert witness, Dr. Ira Packer, who
    administered several tests, most importantly, the HCR-20 3d ed.
    (Historical, Clinical, Risk Management) Scale, which Packer
    described as "the most commonly used instrument for assessing
    violence risk" and which placed Deal at "low risk" for violent
    recidivism.   Having conducted these tests, as well as a clinical
    interview, Packer reached the opinion that Deal "would be at low
    risk for recidivism if paroled."
    At the parole hearing, parole member Dr. Charlene Bonner
    declared that she was "in forensics," and "in the world I'm
    in . . . [Packer is] regarded as . . . one of the best."     Bonner
    also noted that Packer provided risk assessments that were
    "objective" and were "not an opinion," which were "very
    favorable" to Deal.   She also noted that Packer "did something
    that a lot of evaluators won't do," and provided his opinion
    that Deal "would be at low risk to reoffend."
    The board in its decision declared that it had "considered
    a risk and needs assessment," and considered Packer's testimony
    and findings.   Yet, nowhere in its decision did it address why
    it rejected the risk assessment by the Department of Correction
    or the HCR-20 test, or Packer's expert opinion regarding the
    risk of recidivism.   The board is not required to accept the low
    11
    recidivism risk determined by a risk assessment or opined by a
    prisoner's expert.    See Doe, Sex Offender Registry Bd. No. 10800
    v. Sex Offender Registry Bd., 
    459 Mass. 603
    , 637 (2011) ("The
    opinion of a witness . . . need not be accepted by the hearing
    examiner . . .").    But where it effectively rejects that
    estimation of risk by denying parole, it should explain why and
    identify the evidence it relied on to find a higher estimation
    of risk.   See Doe, Sex Offender Registry Bd. No. 23656 v. Sex
    Offender Registry Bd., 
    483 Mass. 131
    , 136 (2019), quoting Police
    Dep't of Boston v. Kavaleski, 
    463 Mass. 680
    , 694 (2012) ("an
    agency must 'explain[] on the record its reasons for rejecting
    portions of [an expert's] testimony'").    See also Langlitz v.
    Board of Registration of Chiropractors, 
    396 Mass. 374
    , 381
    (1985), citing Arthurs v. Board of Registration in Med., 
    383 Mass. 299
    , 310 (1981) ("an agency or board may not sit as a
    silent witness where expert testimony is required to establish
    an evidentiary basis for its conclusions"); New Boston Garden
    Corp. v. Assessors of Boston, 
    383 Mass. 456
    , 470 (1981) ("The
    board may not reject [the] testimony without a basis for such
    rejection in the record"); Robinson v. Contributory Retirement
    Appeal Bd., 
    20 Mass. App. Ct. 634
    , 639 (1985) ("where . . .
    there is uncontradicted testimony concerning a subject which is
    beyond the common knowledge and experience of the finder of
    fact, that testimony may not be rejected without a basis for
    12
    such rejection in the record").   Otherwise, without such
    meaningful individualized analysis, a court cannot ensure that
    the board has truly considered risk assessments in reaching a
    parole decision.
    I concur in the court's judgment only because, at the time
    of this parole decision, we had yet to articulate what the board
    must do to demonstrate through its findings that it gave
    meaningful individualized consideration to the Miller factors
    and the likelihood that age and maturity will diminish these
    attributes of youth and reduce the risk of recidivism.      In the
    absence of this guidance, where the board declared that it
    considered all that it should consider, I cannot say that it
    abused its discretion in denying parole.   And I recognize that
    Deal is entitled to a new parole hearing in December 2020 where,
    if his parole were denied, we would expect meaningful
    individualized findings that are far less conclusory and
    perfunctory than here.