William Thompkins, J v. Randy Pfist , 698 F.3d 976 ( 2012 )


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  •                               In the
    United States Court of Appeals
    For the Seventh Circuit
    No. 10-2467
    W ILLIE M ARSHALL T HOMPKINS, JR.,
    Petitioner-Appellant,
    v.
    R ANDY P FISTER,
    Respondent-Appellee.
    Appeal from the United States District Court
    for the Northern District of Illinois, Eastern Division.
    No. 08 C 6252—George W. Lindberg, Judge.
    A RGUED N OVEMBER 1, 2011—D ECIDED O CTOBER 23, 2012
    Before B AUER, F LAUM, and SYKES, Circuit Judges.
    S YKES, Circuit Judge. On December 23, 1980, a patrolling
    police officer found the body of Gerald Holton lying
    facedown in a ditch in an unincorporated area of Cook
    County, Illinois. Holton’s hands were tied with tele-
    phone cord, and he was shot in the head. The officer
    discovered the body of Arthur Sheppard nearby, hidden
    in a clump of trees, similarly executed with his hands
    bound. For about three months, investigators had no
    2                                            No. 10-2467
    leads in the murders. A break came when an informant
    implicated Pamela Thompkins in the killings. Pamela
    Thompkins was arrested and immediately confessed
    her role in assisting her former brother-in-law and their
    mutual friend in a robbery that got out of hand and
    became a double murder.
    The police then arrested Pamela’s former brother-in-law
    Willie Thompkins, Jr., and he too agreed to talk after
    receiving Miranda warnings. At some point during the
    interrogation, he took a phone call from an attorney
    who had been contacted by his wife, but continued to
    talk to police without invoking his right to counsel.
    The next morning Thompkins was taken to court for
    a bond hearing. Before the hearing took place, he con-
    fessed his involvement in the murders of Holton and
    Sheppard. A jury convicted him of two counts of
    murder based on his confession, the testimony of eye-
    witnesses, and evidence from the scene of the crime.
    He was sentenced to death. After an unsuccessful direct
    appeal and more than a decade and a half of state
    postconviction proceedings, the Governor of Illinois
    commuted the sentences of all death-row inmates, and
    Thompkins was resentenced to life. He exhausted
    his remaining postconviction claims and then sought
    federal habeas relief on multiple grounds. The district
    court denied the petition.
    We authorized an appeal on two issues: (1) whether
    Thompkins’s confession should have been suppressed
    because it was taken in violation of his Sixth Amend-
    ment right to counsel; and (2) whether trial counsel was
    No. 10-2467                                                3
    constitutionally ineffective for failing to interview
    several potential witnesses. On the first issue, the
    Illinois Supreme Court held that the right to counsel
    had not yet attached when Thompkins confessed, so
    the trial court properly declined to suppress the confes-
    sion. On the second, the court rejected the claim of inef-
    fective assistance of counsel based on procedural
    default and lack of factual support. On federal habeas
    review, these decisions are entitled to substantial defer-
    ence. Because the state supreme court did not unrea-
    sonably determine the facts or unreasonably apply
    federal law, see 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d), we affirm the denial
    of habeas relief.
    I. Background
    Thompkins’s case was tried in Cook County Circuit
    Court more than three decades ago in June 1982. See
    People v. Thompkins (Thompkins I), 
    521 N.E.2d 38
    , 42-45 (Ill.
    1988) (direct appeal); People v. Thompkins (Thompkins II),
    
    641 N.E.2d 371
    , 374-76 (Ill. 1994) (first postconviction
    appeal). The key witnesses for the prosecution were
    Keith Culbreath and Sandra Douglas. Our account of
    the facts is based primarily on their testimony as
    described in the Illinois Supreme Court’s opinions in
    Thompkins I and Thompkins II.
    On December 22, 1980, Willie Thompkins and Ronnie
    Moore were at Douglas’s home in Harvey, Illinois, in
    southern Cook County, hatching a plan to rob a couple
    of cocaine dealers. Culbreath stopped by around noon.
    Thompkins took him into a bedroom and asked if he
    4                                          No. 10-2467
    wanted to make some money by helping him “stick-up”
    a “couple guys.” He agreed to participate but told
    Thompkins he wanted to go home first and get a ski
    mask so he couldn’t be identified. Thompkins told
    him, “don’t worry about it, [I’ll] take care of that.”
    Culbreath saw two guns on the bed, got cold feet, and
    left Douglas’s house.
    Later that day, Thompkins, Moore, and Douglas drove
    to the home of Thompkins’s former sister-in-law Pamela
    Thompkins (“Pamela”). Pamela arranged for Gerald
    Holton and Arthur Sheppard to come over on the
    pretense of doing a cocaine deal. When Holton and
    Sheppard arrived, the group moved to the basement
    where there was a small kitchen and recreation area.
    Holton and Sheppard produced a baggie of cocaine
    and placed it on the kitchen table. Thompkins then
    stood in the door frame, pointed a gun at the two men,
    and demanded that they put their hands on the table.
    They did as they were told. Moore and Thompkins
    then searched Holton and Sheppard, taking a gun, their
    wallets, and a beeper. Moore and Thompkins bound
    the hostages’ hands with telephone cord and dragged
    them by their feet from the kitchen to the recreation
    area. Douglas retreated upstairs.
    A few hours passed. At some point Pamela joined
    Douglas upstairs. While the two women were talking,
    Douglas heard a loud banging sound in the basement,
    followed by two gunshots. Pamela blurted out that she
    “told them not to do it here, she knew it wouldn’t go
    according to plans.” Douglas ventured part way down
    No. 10-2467                                             5
    the stairs and got a glimpse of a body she assumed
    was Holton’s because she recognized his shoes. She
    then saw Moore, holding a knife, lead Sheppard—alive
    but still bound—in the direction of the garage. She
    watched as the others dragged Holton’s body to the
    garage. Thompkins, Moore, and Pamela then drove off in
    two separate cars, with Sheppard as their hostage and
    Holton’s body in the trunk of one of the cars. Douglas
    estimated that this took place at around 8 or 9 p.m.
    About 35 minutes later, Douglas received a phone
    call from Thompkins telling her to “clean up a little bit”
    in the basement. She was so repulsed by the scene that
    she couldn’t do it. The next day, however, she went
    with Pamela and Thompkins to the home of Delmar
    Watkins. Thompkins ordered Douglas to help Watkins
    wash the blood from the trunk of the car where
    Holton’s body had been. The following day, Douglas
    stood guard while Watkins sprayed the trunk of the
    car with water.
    In the meantime on December 23, a patrol officer
    found the bodies of Holton and Sheppard, hands
    bounds and shot in the head, lying about 65 feet apart in
    an unincorporated area of Cook County near Markham,
    Illinois. Investigators initially had no leads. A break in
    the investigation came on March 13, 1981, when Doris
    Ferguson told the police about a December 23 phone
    call she received from Pamela Thompkins asking for
    advice about how to remove bloodstains from her base-
    ment and garage. When Ferguson pressed for an explana-
    tion of how the bloodstains got there, Pamela spilled
    6                                             No. 10-2467
    the entire story. Police used Ferguson’s statement to
    obtain a search warrant for Pamela’s home. At the
    scene the officers saw bloodstains in the basement
    and arrested Pamela, who gave a detailed confession
    describing the entire sequence of events, including
    Willie Thompkins’s involvement in the murders.
    Based on Pamela’s statement, police arrested Thompkins
    on March 17, 1981. That same day, a complaint for a
    preliminary examination was filed against him. Late that
    afternoon, Assistant States Attorney Paul Perry met with
    Thompkins, gave him Miranda warnings, and asked if
    he was willing to talk. Thompkins said he understood
    his rights and agreed to talk to Perry. At some point
    during the interrogation, an officer interrupted to say
    that Attorney George Howard had called asking to
    speak to Thompkins. Perry stopped the interview and
    Thompkins left the room to return the attorney’s call.
    Thompkins’s wife, Barbara, had contacted Howard to
    ask for his help, but Howard later testified that he
    was never actually retained.
    When Thompkins returned to the interview room,
    Perry asked him if he “still want[ed] to talk to us after
    talking to George Howard?” Thompkins said that he
    did. Perry reminded him of his right to have an attorney
    present during the interview. Thompkins replied: “No,
    that’s all right; I’ll talk to you now.” The interview re-
    sumed, but Thompkins did not make any inculpatory
    statements on March 17.
    The next morning, March 18, the police took Thompkins
    to court for a bond hearing and placed him in a lockup
    No. 10-2467                                            7
    near the courtroom where the hearing would be held.
    Thompkins and Pamela were to appear in court at the
    same time. The presiding judge called and passed the
    case twice, apparently awaiting the arrival of a private
    attorney for Thompkins; Pamela was represented by a
    public defender. On the third go-round, Thompkins
    consented to representation by Pamela’s public defender
    for the limited purpose of the bond hearing. On this
    understanding, the judge went ahead with the hearing
    that day, though the evidence conflicts about whether
    it took place in the late morning or early afternoon.
    At some point during the morning court session, In-
    vestigators Jim Houlihan and Ronald Bennett consulted
    with ASA Perry about whether they could interview
    Thompkins. Perry authorized the interrogation. After
    fresh Miranda warnings, Thompkins confessed his in-
    volvement in the murders. He agreed to repeat his state-
    ment to Perry, so Houlihan left the lockup to summon
    the prosecutor. Thompkins maintains in his habeas
    petition that the interrogation occurred after the bond
    hearing. However, Perry testified at the suppression
    hearing that he saw the investigators enter the lockup
    sometime between 11:30 a.m. and 1 p.m., before the
    bond hearing was held. See Thompkins I, 
    521 N.E.2d at 50
    .
    It is undisputed that when Perry came back to the
    lockup, Thompkins was returning from a separate
    holding area where inmates could make phone calls.
    Thompkins told Perry that he had “just spoke[n] to his
    lawyer on the phone” and no longer wanted to talk.
    Because Pamela’s confession contained details about
    Thompkins’s involvement in the murders, the two de-
    8                                                  No. 10-2467
    fendants were tried separately.1 Thompkins moved
    to suppress his confession, arguing that it was taken in
    violation of his Sixth Amendment right to counsel.2
    Investigators Houlihan and Bennett, ASA Perry, and
    Attorney Howard testified at the suppression hearing
    for the prosecution, and Thompkins testified on his
    own behalf. The trial judge denied the motion.
    Thompkins was convicted by a jury of two counts
    of murder and related charges based largely on his con-
    fession and testimony from Douglas and Culbreath,
    corroborated by evidence obtained in the search of
    Pamela’s home. The capital-punishment phase of the
    case was tried to the court, and Thompkins was
    sentenced to death.
    On direct appeal the Illinois Supreme Court affirmed
    the convictions and sentence, see Thompkins I, 
    521 N.E.2d at 63
    , and extensive postconviction proceedings
    followed. The state supreme court rejected most of
    1
    Pamela Thompkins was convicted of conspiracy to commit
    murder and armed robbery in a bench trial in which the
    parties stipulated that she participated in the crimes because
    Willie Thompkins and Ronnie Moore threatened to kill her
    and her children. She was sentenced to four years in prison.
    Moore remained at large until 1984 and was eventually con-
    victed of murder and related offenses and sentenced to life.
    2
    He also sought suppression on Fifth Amendment grounds,
    alleging a violation of his rights under Miranda v. Arizona, 
    384 U.S. 436
     (1966). Our certificate of appealability covers only
    the Sixth Amendment challenge to the admission of his con-
    fession.
    No. 10-2467                                               9
    Thompkins’s postconviction claims, but ordered a new
    sentencing hearing. See Thompkins II, 
    641 N.E.2d at 395
    .
    The trial court reimposed the death sentence, and the
    case returned to the state supreme court, which twice
    remanded for further proceedings regarding the sen-
    tence. See People v. Thompkins (Thompkins III), 
    690 N.E.2d 984
     (Ill. 1998); People v. Thompkins (Thompkins IV ),
    
    732 N.E.2d 553
     (Ill. 2000).
    Before the remand proceedings ordered in Thompkins IV
    were concluded, the Governor of Illinois commuted
    the sentences of all prisoners on death row, and
    Thompkins was resentenced to two concurrent terms of
    life in prison. After exhausting his remaining sentencing
    claims in the state courts, see People v. Thompkins
    (Thompkins V ), 
    876 N.E.2d 1088
     (Ill. 2007), Thompkins
    timely petitioned for federal habeas relief under § 2254
    alleging multiple grounds for relief. The district court
    denied the petition, and this appeal followed.
    II. Discussion
    Federal habeas relief from a state-court criminal judg-
    ment “is not easy to come by,” Woods v. McBride, 
    430 F.3d 813
    , 816 (7th Cir. 2005), because the Antiterrorism
    and Effective Death Penalty Act of 1996 (“AEDPA”)
    requires us to “defer to a great extent to the decisions of
    the state courts,” Ben-Yisrayl v. Buss, 
    540 F.3d 542
    , 546
    (7th Cir. 2008). A federal court may not grant a writ
    of habeas corpus unless the challenged state-court adjudi-
    cation “resulted in a decision that was contrary to, or
    10                                              No. 10-2467
    involved an unreasonable application of, clearly estab-
    lished Federal law, as determined by the Supreme Court
    of the United States,” or was based on “an unreasonable
    determination of the facts in light of the evidence
    presented in the State court proceeding.” 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d)(1), (d)(2). Accordingly, we will not disturb a
    state court’s application of federal law “unless it is ‘both
    incorrect and unreasonable.’ ” Carter v. Thompson, 
    690 F.3d 837
    , 843 (7th Cir. 2012) (quoting Etherly v. Davis,
    
    619 F.3d 654
    , 660 (7th Cir. 2010)). “Unreasonable” in this
    context “ ‘means something like lying well outside the
    boundaries of permissible differences of opinion.’ ” West
    v. Symdon, 
    689 F.3d 749
    , 751 (7th Cir. 2012) (quoting
    Hardaway v. Young, 
    302 F.3d 757
    , 762 (7th Cir. 2002)). The
    state court’s factual determinations are entitled to a
    presumption of correctness, and the petitioner has the
    burden of overcoming this presumption by clear and
    convincing evidence. See 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (e)(1);
    McCarthy v. Pollard, 
    656 F.3d 478
    , 483 (7th Cir. 2011).
    We review the district court’s denial of a § 2254 petition
    de novo. Ebert v. Gaetz, 
    610 F.3d 404
    , 411 (7th Cir. 2010).
    Our review is limited to two questions on which
    we granted a certificate of appealability: (1) whether
    Thompkins’s confession was obtained in violation of
    his Sixth Amendment right to counsel and thus should
    have been suppressed; and (2) whether trial counsel’s
    failure to interview and present the testimony of several
    potential witnesses amounted to constitutionally inef-
    fective assistance of counsel. The state supreme court
    decided the first issue in Thompkins I and declined to
    revisit this ruling in Thompkins II. The court decided
    No. 10-2467                                               11
    the second issue in Thompkins II, the first of the
    postconviction appeals. Thompkins III, IV, and V were
    later postconviction appeals on sentencing issues not
    relevant here.
    A. Thompkins’s Confession
    It is well-established that the Sixth Amendment right
    of an accused person “to have the Assistance of Counsel
    for his defence,” U.S. C ONST. amend. VI, attaches at
    “the initiation of adversary judicial criminal proceed-
    ings—whether by way of formal charge, preliminary
    hearing, indictment, information, or arraignment,” Kirby
    v. Illinois, 
    406 U.S. 682
    , 689 (1972). It is likewise settled
    law that an appearance before a judicial officer in
    which the accused is advised of the charges against
    him constitutes the initiation of “adversary judicial crimi-
    nal proceedings” for Sixth Amendment purposes. See
    Rothgery v. Gillespie County, Tex., 
    554 U.S. 191
    , 198-99
    (2008); Brewer v. Williams, 
    430 U.S. 387
    , 399 (1977). Every-
    one agrees that Thompkins’s bond hearing on March 18,
    1981—the day after his arrest—qualifies as the “initiation
    of adversary judicial proceedings” against him for
    Sixth Amendment purposes. Once the Sixth Amendment
    right to counsel has attached, government agents may
    not question an accused without his counsel present
    unless he consents to be questioned without his counsel.
    See Montejo v. Louisiana, 
    556 U.S. 778
    , 786 (2009).
    In Thompkins I the Illinois Supreme Court held that
    Thompkins’s right to counsel had not yet attached at
    12                                                    No. 10-2467
    the time he confessed, so the trial judge properly denied
    the suppression motion. 
    521 N.E.2d at 50-52
    . In so
    holding, the court identified the correct legal standard,
    citing the Supreme Court’s decision in Kirby, and also
    Moran v. Burbine, 
    475 U.S. 412
     (1986); Maine v. Moulton, 
    474 U.S. 159
     (1985); United States v. Gouveia, 
    467 U.S. 180
     (1984);
    and Brewer, 
    430 U.S. at 399
    . See Thompkins I, 
    521 N.E.2d at 51
    . The court then rejected Thompkins’s argument
    that the right to counsel attached immediately after his
    arrest, when the complaint for preliminary examination
    was filed on March 17. 
    Id.
     The court held that under
    Kirby Thompkins’s right to counsel attached at the bond
    hearing, and because Thompkins confessed to Houlihan
    and Bennett before the hearing was held, his confession
    was properly admitted against him at trial.3 
    Id.
     The
    court declined to revisit this ruling in Thompkins II,
    the first postconviction appeal, because the affidavit
    Thompkins submitted in support of his postconviction
    motion contradicted his testimony at the suppression
    hearing. 
    641 N.E.2d at 384
    .
    Thompkins no longer argues, as he did in the state-
    court proceedings, that his Sixth Amendment right to
    counsel attached when the complaint for a preliminary
    3
    The Illinois Supreme Court also rejected Thompkins’s claim
    that the confession should have been suppressed because it
    was obtained in violation of his Fifth Amendment rights.
    People v. Thompkins (Thompkins I ), 
    521 N.E.2d 38
    , 51-52 (Ill. 1988)
    (affirming the trial court’s ruling that no violation of Miranda
    had occurred). As we have noted, this issue is not within
    the scope of our certificate of appealability.
    No. 10-2467                                                13
    examination was filed. The concession is prudent.
    Under Illinois law a complaint for a preliminary exam-
    ination does not initiate formal felony proceedings. See
    725 ILL. C OMP. S TAT. 5/111-2(a) (“All prosecutions
    of felonies shall be by information or by indictment.”);
    People v. Garrett, 
    688 N.E.2d 614
    , 618-19 (Ill. 1997) (holding
    that a complaint for preliminary examination is not a
    formal charge in a felony case); People v. Mann, 
    794 N.E.2d 425
    , 431-32 (Ill. App. Ct. 2003) (observing that “a
    complaint alleging a felony initiates no prosecution
    whatsoever”). Indeed, the Supreme Court has noted that
    in Illinois it is the preliminary hearing itself, not the
    filing of a complaint for preliminary examination, that
    initiates adversary judicial proceedings in felony cases.
    See Moore v. Illinois, 
    434 U.S. 220
    , 228-29 (1977) (noting
    that under Illinois law adversary felony proceedings
    are initiated not at the time a complaint is filed but at
    the subsequent preliminary hearing); Edwards v. Arizona,
    
    451 U.S. 477
    , 480 n.7 (1981) (repeating this observation
    from Moore).
    Accepting the error in his prior argument, Thompkins
    has shifted focus and now attacks the state court’s
    finding that he confessed before the bond hearing. See
    Thompkins I, 
    521 N.E.2d at 50
     (describing the chronology
    of events and finding that the confession was given
    “immediately prior to defendant’s bond hearing”). He
    argues that the evidence “plainly demonstrates” that
    Houlihan and Bennett questioned him after the bond
    hearing. This is a new factual claim, and it is arguably
    procedurally defaulted because Thompkins did not
    adequately develop it in the state court. See Suh v. Pierce,
    14                                              No. 10-2467
    
    630 F.3d 685
    , 690 (7th Cir. 2011); Stevens v. McBride, 
    489 F.3d 883
    , 894 (7th Cir. 2007). On direct appeal he argued
    that his right to counsel attached when the complaint
    was filed on March 17 and that he did not validly waive
    his right to counsel after that point. See Thompkins I, 
    521 N.E.2d at 50-52
    . Later, in postconviction proceedings,
    he submitted an affidavit claiming that the police
    refused his request to call Attorney Howard, which
    contradicted his testimony at the suppression hearing.
    See Thompkins II, 
    641 N.E.2d at 384
    . He first raised the
    claim about the chronology of events in his § 2254 petition.
    Procedural default aside, the state court’s factual find-
    ings are entitled to a presumption of correctness, and
    Thompkins has the burden to overcome the presump-
    tion by clear and convincing evidence. He has not done
    so. It is true that the record does not establish the
    precise time the bond hearing occurred. The transcript
    from the hearing does not indicate when the hearing
    started and ended, although at several points the
    presiding judge said “this morning” when referring to the
    warnings he was then providing to both defendants.
    Thompkins testified at the suppression hearing that
    Houlihan and Bennett questioned him in the afternoon.
    On the other hand, ASA Perry testified that Houlihan
    and Bennett interviewed Thompkins before the bond
    hearing, and although he could not say precisely what
    time the interview occurred, he estimated that he saw
    the investigators enter the lockup sometime between
    11:30 a.m. and 1 p.m. Based on Perry’s testimony, the
    state supreme court found that Thompkins confessed
    “immediately prior to [the] bond hearing.” Thompkins I,
    
    521 N.E.2d at 50
    .
    No. 10-2467                                             15
    In evidentiary conflicts like this, our standard of
    review requires that we defer to the state supreme
    court’s decision. The state court was entitled to accept
    Perry’s testimony about the chronology of events.
    Thompkins has not rebutted the AEDPA presumption
    that the state court’s fact-finding is correct; he has
    simply pointed to evidence supporting his version of the
    sequence and timing of events. Nor has he carried
    his burden of demonstrating that the state court’s deter-
    mination of the facts was unreasonable; identifying
    conflicting evidence is not enough. Accordingly, the
    district court properly denied habeas relief on the
    Sixth Amendment right-to-counsel claim.
    B. Ineffective Assistance of Counsel
    Thompkins also contends that his trial counsel was
    constitutionally ineffective for failing to interview
    several witnesses who could have offered exculpatory
    testimony. Under the familiar test established in
    Strickland v. Washington, a claim of ineffective assistance
    of counsel requires a showing that counsel “made errors
    so serious that counsel was not functioning as the ‘coun-
    sel’ guaranteed the defendant by the Sixth Amend-
    ment” and that the “deficient performance prejudiced
    the defense.” 
    466 U.S. 669
    , 687 (1984). Judicial scrutiny
    of counsel’s performance is “highly deferential,” 
    id. at 689
    , and under AEDPA we defer to the state court’s
    application of Strickland on federal habeas review,
    meaning that our evaluation of counsel’s performance
    is “doubly deferential,” Knowles v. Mirzayance, 
    129 S. Ct. 1411
    , 1420 (2009).
    16                                              No. 10-2467
    Thompkins’s Strickland claim rests on an alleged
    failure to investigate potential witnesses. Trial counsel
    “has a duty to make reasonable investigations or to
    make a reasonable decision that makes particular
    investigations unnecessary.” Strickland, 466 U.S. at 691.
    “In any ineffectiveness case, a particular decision not
    to investigate must be directly assessed for reason-
    ableness in all the circumstances, applying a heavy mea-
    sure of deference to counsel’s judgments.” Id. Thompkins
    argues that his trial counsel should have interviewed
    and presented testimony from his wife, Barbara, as well
    as Karen Hayes and Tina Pitts—all of whom, he says,
    would have provided an alibi. He also claims his counsel
    was ineffective for not interviewing Pamela Thompkins.
    Regarding the claimed alibi, Thompkins contends
    that Hayes and Pitts would have testified that he was
    with them during the day on December 22, contradicting
    the testimony of Douglas and Culbreath. He says his
    wife, Barbara, would have testified that he was home
    with her at 9 p.m. on December 22, around the time of
    the murders. It is not clear what testimony Pamela
    would have provided beyond what she told police in
    her detailed confession, which inculpated Thompkins.
    The Illinois Supreme Court rejected Thompkins’s Strick-
    land claim as to Hayes and Pitts on procedural grounds
    because he did not submit affidavits from them with
    his postconviction petition, as required by Illinois law.
    Thompkins II, 
    641 N.E.2d at 378
    ; see also 725 ILL. C OMP.
    S TAT. 5/122-2 (1964). This is an independent and
    adequate state ground for rejecting this part of the Strick-
    No. 10-2467                                                    17
    land claim, which bars review in federal court unless
    Thompkins can show cause and prejudice or that a mis-
    carriage of justice would result if we do not review
    the claim. See Cone v. Bell, 
    556 U.S. 449
    , 465-66 (2009);
    Woods v. Schwartz, 
    589 F.3d 368
    , 373 (7th Cir. 2009). “A
    state law ground is independent when the court
    actually relied on the procedural bar as an independent
    basis for its disposition of the case.” Kaczmarek v.
    Rednour, 
    627 F.3d 586
    , 592 (7th Cir. 2010). “A state
    law ground is adequate when it is a firmly established
    and regularly followed state practice at the time it
    is applied.” 
    Id.
    The state supreme court plainly relied on the affidavit
    rule to bar Thompkins’s claim that his counsel was inef-
    fective for not interviewing Hayes and Pitts. See Thompkins
    II, 
    641 N.E.2d at 378
     (“The defendant has failed to
    submit affidavits from Pitts and Hayes themselves, how-
    ever, and thus we are precluded from considering
    this issue further.”). Moreover, the affidavit rule is estab-
    lished by state statute, 725 ILL. C OMP. S TAT. 5/122-2, and
    regularly followed by Illinois courts, see, e.g., People v.
    Guest, 
    655 N.E.2d 873
    , 883 (Ill. 1995).4 Thompkins must
    4
    Although the Illinois Supreme Court has suggested that
    noncompliance with the affidavit rule might be forgiven in
    certain circumstances, People v. Reeves, 
    107 N.E.2d 861
    , 864 (Ill.
    1952), that does not mean that the rule is not regularly
    followed and is therefore inadequate, Promotor v. Pollard, 
    628 F.3d 878
    , 886-87 (7th Cir. 2010). Discretionary state procedural
    (continued...)
    18                                                No. 10-2467
    therefore establish cause for and prejudice from the
    procedural default.5 He has a steep hill to climb:
    Cause for a default is ordinarily established by show-
    ing that some type of “external impediment” pre-
    vented the petitioner from presenting his claim.
    Lewis v. Sternes, 
    390 F.3d 1019
    , 1026 (7th Cir. 2004).
    Prejudice is established by showing that the violation
    of the petitioner’s federal rights “worked to his
    actual and substantial disadvantage, infecting his
    entire trial with error of constitutional dimensions.” 
    Id.
    Promotor v. Pollard, 
    628 F.3d 878
    , 887 (7th Cir. 2010).
    Thompkins argues that Hayes and Pitts were impossible
    to find after the trial and his inability to locate them
    amounted to an “external impediment” preventing his
    compliance with the affidavit rule. But the rule requires
    the petitioner to include either affidavits from the
    witnesses who will support the petitioner’s postconvic-
    tion claims or a statement explaining why affidavits
    are unavailable. See 725 ILL. C OMP. S TAT. 5/122-2.
    Thompkins’s petition for postconviction relief included
    neither; he did not submit affidavits from Hayes and
    4
    (...continued)
    rules may still constitute independent and adequate state
    grounds. Beard v. Kindler, 
    130 S. Ct. 612
    , 618 (2009).
    5
    Thompkins does not argue that without federal habeas
    review, he will suffer a fundamental miscarriage of justice, so
    we do not address this ground for relief from the procedural
    default.
    No. 10-2467                                             19
    Pitts, nor did he explain why affidavits from them
    were unavailable.
    Even assuming that Thompkins could establish cause
    for the procedural default, he cannot establish prejudice.
    The only indication of the testimony Hayes and Pitts
    would have given is Thompkins’s own affidavit
    asserting that they would have provided an alibi. This
    falls far short of establishing prejudice. A Strickland
    claim based on counsel’s failure to investigate a
    potential witness requires a specific, affirmative
    showing of what the missing witness’s testimony
    would be, and this typically requires at least an affidavit
    from the overlooked witness. See Wright v. Gramley,
    
    125 F.3d 1038
    , 1044 (7th Cir. 1997); United States ex rel.
    McCall v. O’Grady, 
    908 F.2d 170
    , 173 (7th Cir. 1990);
    United States ex rel. Cross v. DeRobertis, 
    811 F.2d 1008
    ,
    1016 (7th Cir. 1987). Thompkins’s own affidavit is
    not enough.
    Thompkins also challenges the state supreme court’s
    rejection of his claim that counsel was ineffective for
    failing to interview Pamela. On this aspect of the
    Strickland claim, the state supreme court began by
    noting that counsel had successfully argued for
    severance because Pamela’s defense was antagonistic
    to Thompkins’s; based on the contents of her confession,
    her testimony would have been harmful rather than
    helpful to his case. See Thompkins II, 
    641 N.E.2d at
    377-
    78. The court easily rejected Thompkins’s evidence to
    the contrary; he relied on an unauthenticated hand-
    written letter dated January 26, 1983, in which
    Pamela purported to recant her statement implicating
    20                                            No. 10-2467
    Thompkins in the murders. 
    Id.
     The court said the
    letter was of “doubtful utility” because it was dated
    six months after Thompkins’s trial and Pamela had “re-
    canted the recantation” the very next day, on January 27,
    in a stipulation at the beginning of her own trial. 
    Id.
    Under these circumstances, the court did “not believe
    that counsel may be faulted” for failing to “seriously
    consider the prospect of calling Pamela as a
    defense witness.” 
    Id. at 377
    . We, in turn, can find no
    fault with the state court’s decision on this point. To
    the contrary, it was eminently reasonable, and
    Thompkins has given us no good reason to question it.
    That brings us to Barbara, and whether trial counsel
    was ineffective for not calling her as an alibi witness.
    Thompkins claims she would have testified that he
    was home with her sometime around 9 p.m. on
    December 22, 1980. Barbara stated in her affidavit that
    she was interviewed by Thompkins’s defense attorney
    and told him she “was willing to testify.” She also said
    she told counsel that “because I was a Jehovah’s wit-
    ness, I could not lie,” and the interview proceeded
    no further. Barbara explained in her affidavit that this
    statement was meant to reinforce her religious beliefs,
    not to suggest that she thought she “would have to lie
    about anything to testify for Willie.” She said if counsel
    had questioned her further, she would have told him
    that “Willie must have been home after 9:00 in the
    evening on December 22, 1980, because that was when
    I would get up from my nap to go to work, and Willie
    drove me to work that night.”
    No. 10-2467                                              21
    Setting aside the question of whether trial counsel
    misinterpreted Barbara’s reference to her religious
    beliefs, the state supreme court quite reasonably con-
    cluded that it “should defer to counsel’s decision not
    to present [Barbara’s] testimony.” 
    Id. at 378
    . Her affidavit
    makes it clear that she could not provide a clean alibi.
    She claimed only that Thompkins “must have been
    home after 9:00 in the evening on December 22” because
    that was when she ordinarily got up from her nap to go
    to work, and he drove her to work that evening. That
    is not incompatible with Douglas’s testimony that the
    murders occurred around 8 or 9 p.m. Barbara’s affidavit
    was at best equivocal and not inconsistent with
    Douglas’s testimony. It does not call into question
    the reasonableness of the state supreme court’s deci-
    sion not to fault counsel for not presenting her as a
    witness. Indeed, Strickland requires this kind of
    deference to counsel’s strategic decisions. When con-
    sidered through the lens of our doubly deferential
    standard of review, Barbara’s affidavit does not come
    close to establishing that the state supreme court unrea-
    sonably applied Strickland.
    A FFIRMED.
    10-23-12