Cottingham v. Secretary of Health and Human Services ( 2021 )


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  •            In the United States Court of Federal Claims
    OFFICE OF SPECIAL MASTERS
    *********************
    KASEY COTTINGHAM,        *
    *                         No. 15-1291V
    Petitioner, *                         Special Master Christian J. Moran
    *
    v.                   *
    *                         Filed: January 7, 2021
    SECRETARY OF HEALTH      *
    AND HUMAN SERVICES,      *                         attorneys’ fees and costs, reasonable
    *                         basis, remand, product insert
    Respondent. *
    *********************
    Andrew D. Downing, Van Cott & Talamante, PLLC, Phoenix, AZ, for petitioner;
    Voris Johnson, United States Dep’t of Justice, Washington, DC, for respondent.
    PUBLISHED DECISION DENYING ATTORNEYS’ FEES AND COSTS1
    An October 30, 2015 petition alleged that the human papillomavirus
    (“HPV”) vaccine harmed Kasey Cottingham and sought relief pursuant to the
    National Childhood Vaccine Injury Act, 42 U.S.C. §§ 300aa-10 through 34 (2012).
    However, the case was dismissed within a year of its filing. Cottingham v. Sec’y
    of Health & Human Servs., No. 15-1291V, 
    2016 WL 6575170
     (Fed. Cl. Spec.
    Mstr. Oct. 13, 2016).
    Although Ms. Cottingham did not receive compensation, she is requesting
    an award of attorneys’ fees and costs as permitted by the Vaccine Act. 42 U.S.C.
    § 300aa–15(e). After three rounds of adjudications in both the Office of Special
    1
    The E-Government Act, 
    44 U.S.C. § 3501
     note (2012) (Federal Management and
    Promotion of Electronic Government Services), requires that the Court post this decision on its
    website. Pursuant to Vaccine Rule 18(b), the parties have 14 days to file a motion proposing
    redaction of medical information or other information described in 42 U.S.C. § 300aa-12(d)(4).
    Any redactions ordered by the special master will appear in the document posted on the website.
    Masters and the Court of Federal Claims, the Federal Circuit remanded the case for
    an additional review of evidence that might support a finding of reasonable basis.
    Because she has failed to meet this predicate showing, Ms. Cottingham is not
    eligible for an award of attorneys’ fees and costs. Therefore, her motion is denied.
    I.    Background
    The foundation for this decision is Ms. Cottingham’s medical history. The
    series of events about her health is set out in section A, below. The history of her
    claim through the Decision Dismissing Case is discussed in section B, below. The
    lengthy history of decisions and appellate opinions regarding the still pending
    motion for attorneys’ fees and costs is presented in section C, below.
    A.     Medical Chronology
    Ms. Cottingham was born in 1998. Her health through 2011 was relatively
    routine and overall good.
    In March 2012, a doctor at the Middle Creek Urgent Care facility diagnosed
    Ms. Cottingham with mononucleosis. A week later, Ms. Cottingham’s regular
    pediatrician saw her. Ms. Cottingham stated that her throat was hurting, she felt
    tired, and she had headaches. The doctor diagnosed her as having a viral illness on
    top of the mononucleosis. Exhibit 3 at 55-56.
    Before starting high school, Ms. Cottingham returned to the pediatrician’s
    office. The doctor did not record any significant health concerns. During this
    appointment, which occurred on July 5, 2012, Ms. Cottingham received three
    vaccinations – the hepatitis A vaccine, the meningococcal conjugate vaccine, and
    the HPV vaccine. More specifically, Ms. Cottingham received the “quadrivalent”
    HPV vaccine. Exhibit 3 at 99-100. Ms. Cottingham’s claim in the Vaccine
    Program rested upon the HPV vaccine.
    Approximately one month later, while performing as a majorette in her
    school’s band, Ms. Cottingham twisted her right knee. The pediatrician recorded
    that except for the problem with her right knee, a review of symptoms was
    “negative.” Exhibit 3 at 64. For the knee injury, Ms. Cottingham went to physical
    therapy. Exhibit 5.
    On October 10, 2012, Ms. Cottingham went to the Children’s Hospital of
    Alabama where she saw a pediatric gynecologist. The history of present illness
    from this visit states:
    2
    She has periods that are monthly. Sometimes there are 2
    weeks in between and sometimes they are a full month in
    between. When they do occur she does have to wear
    double protection on her for a few days because of the
    menorrhagia. Her periods last for about 2 days and they
    are off for about 2 days and they come back for about 4-5
    days.
    Exhibit 9 at 4. Except as noted in the history of present illness, the doctor’s review
    of symptoms was “negative times 10.” Id. The gynecologist prescribed oral
    contraception to control Ms. Cottingham’s monthly cycle.
    According to an affidavit Ms. Cottingham signed for this litigation, her
    health changed on November 1, 2012 (almost four months after her receipt of the
    HPV vaccination). Ms. Cottingham stated: “I began getting regular weekly
    headaches. Over the next few weeks, not only did the frequency of headaches
    increase but I also began to experience episodes of near black-outs where my
    vision became temporarily impaired.” Exhibit 1 ¶ 5. Ms. Cottingham’s attorney
    asserted that November 1, 2012, marked the onset of the problems the HPV
    vaccine allegedly caused in Ms. Cottingham. Pet’r’s Mot. for Attorneys’ Fees and
    Costs, filed Oct. 26, 2016, at 5.
    On November 30, 2012, Ms. Cottingham returned to her pediatrician’s
    office. She complained about having a fever, yellow mucous, a sore throat in the
    mornings, and headaches “off and [on] all week.” The doctor diagnosed her as
    having “acute sinusitis.” Exhibit 3 at 87-88. Ms. Cottingham’s affidavit stated
    that during the November 30, 2012 appointment, she told her doctor about her
    “symptoms” without specifying what those symptoms were. The affidavit also
    recounts that the doctor prescribed an antibiotic and recommended that she drink
    plenty of water. Exhibit 1 ¶ 6. The doctor’s November 30, 2012 note did not
    characterize the headaches as ongoing or chronic.
    According to Ms. Cottingham’s affidavit, her “headaches, low-grade fevers
    and near black-outs continued.” In addition, during practices for majorettes, Ms.
    Cottingham “need[ed] to stop because [she] was feeling dizzy.” Nevertheless, Ms.
    Cottingham “didn’t want to complain because [she] was taught to tough out what
    [she] thought was a temporary condition.” Id. ¶¶ 7-8.
    Approximately two months later, Ms. Cottingham had another appointment
    with her pediatrician. The history of present illness states that Ms. Cottingham
    3
    comes in today with 2 days of runny nose and
    congestion. Today she’s had low-grade fever of 100.4,
    she has also had [a] sore throat along with runny nose
    and congestion. Has had a headache today as well. No
    cough, increased work of breathing or shortness of
    breath. No vomiting or diarrhea.
    Exhibit 3 at 78 (record created Jan. 31, 2013). The doctor’s assessment was
    “rhinitis” and “acute viral pharyngitis.” Id. at 79. This record, however, does not
    indicate that Ms. Cottingham was experiencing near black-outs or low-grade
    fevers. The doctor also did not memorialize that Ms. Cottingham has having
    headaches frequently after November 1, 2012. Ms. Cottingham’s affidavit does
    not question the accuracy of this medical record. See exhibit 1 ¶ 9.
    On March 29, 2013, Ms. Cottingham “fainted upon getting up this
    morning.” Exhibit 3 at 80. She also had a “fever and dizziness,” and “[v]omited
    once.” Id. The doctor’s assessment was “gastroenteritis” and “dehydration.” Id. at
    81. The doctor believed that Ms. Cottingham was “at the early stage of an
    intestinal virus.” Id. at 80-81. March 29, 2013 is 267 days (nearly 9 months) after
    July 5, 2012, the date of the first HPV vaccination.
    Ms. Cottingham fainted again on May 23, 2013, while at a pool. The history
    of present illness from her treatment after this incident states that after waking up
    that morning, Ms. Cottingham did not have anything to eat or drink. When at the
    pool with a friend, Ms. Cottingham felt “very hot” and “hungry” “so she stood up
    quickly to go get something to eat. She says at that point her vision became black
    and she felt very light headed. Soon after she fell backwards.” Exhibit 3 at 70.
    The doctor thought that Ms. Cottingham “was dehydrated prior to this event. [She]
    also [thought] laying out in the sun may have contributed.” Id. at 71. The doctor
    recommended that Ms. Cottingham increase her intake of fluids. Id.
    On July 10, 2013, Ms. Cottingham had an appointment with her pediatrician
    (Dr. Simpson) for two reasons. The visit was, in part, for Ms. Cottingham’s 15-
    year-old checkup. Ms. Cottingham’s mother also raised a concern about the two
    episodes of fainting and asked about an echocardiogram. Exhibit 3 at 96. Ms.
    Cottingham stated that she was having monthly menses. Id. Dr. Simpson
    confirmed that Ms. Cottingham should eat breakfast and should drink fluids
    throughout the day. Id. at 97. He also referred Ms. Cottingham to a cardiologist.
    Id. The only mention of vaccines in the note from July 10, 2013 is under
    4
    “Counseling / Education,” a statement that “Anticipatory guidance given and
    immunizations reviewed.” Id.
    On July 25, 2013, Ms. Cottingham visited the pediatric cardiology clinic of
    the University of Alabama-Birmingham. The history of present illness recounts
    the two incidents of fainting from March and May. In addition, it stated that Ms.
    Cottingham “has had other episodes of dizziness and near passing out. With all the
    episodes, she is standing or walking. She does not participate in any competitive
    athletics. She does participate as a majorette. She has not had any dizziness or
    syncope with physical activity.” Exhibit 3 at 111. She further reported that “one
    time her episode improved when she sat down.” Id. The doctor conducted various
    tests and determined that she had a “structurally and functionally normal heart.
    This syncope/presyncope is consistent with a vasovagal etiology.” Id. at 112. The
    doctor “emphasized aggressive fluid hydration.” Id. The cardiologist diagnosed
    Ms. Cottingham with vasovagal syncope. Id. The cardiologist did not refer her for
    autonomic testing.
    Following the July 25, 2013 visit with the pediatric cardiologist, nearly eight
    months passed before the next medical record. On March 14, 2014, Ms.
    Cottingham went to the office of her pediatrician. Her chief complaint was listed
    as “cough, congestion, [sore throat], low-grade fever.” Exhibit 3 at 106. The
    doctor’s assessment was “cough,” “acute viral pharyngitis,” and “acute upper
    respiratory infection.” Id.
    Ms. Cottingham again saw a pediatrician for a checkup on August 18, 2014.
    The history of present illness states: “Been doing well. No concerns.” Exhibit 3 at
    109. The office notes also indicate that the date of Ms. Cottingham’s last
    menstruation was July 25, 2014. They also say that an oral contraceptive was
    discontinued, although the date of discontinuance was not given. At this
    appointment, Ms. Cottingham received another dose of the hepatitis A vaccine,
    another dose of the meningococcal conjugate vaccine, and another dose of the
    HPV vaccine. Id. at 109-10.
    Pursuant to a history given to a gynecologist in April 2015, Ms. Cottingham
    took oral contraceptives until October or November 2014 when her prescription
    ran out. This same history reports that Ms. Cottingham had a menstrual period in
    5
    December 2014, but none since that month. Exhibit 7 at 7.2 The review of
    systems indicated that Ms. Cottingham reported “cold intolerance.” Id. at 8.
    During the April 28, 2015 appointment, the gynecologist came to the impression
    that Ms. Cottingham was suffering from “secondary amenorrhea.” Id. at 9. The
    doctor also indicated that polycystic ovarian syndrome was possible. The doctor
    ordered an ultrasound. Id.
    Because of problems scheduling the ultrasound, Ms. Cottingham’s mother
    called the office of Ms. Cottingham’s pediatrician on May 14, 2015. Ms.
    Cottingham’s mother was “concerned that the Gardasil series may have had
    something to do with the recent changes noted in [Ms. Cottingham’s] menstrual
    cycle. Mom is requesting that a note be made in [her] chart regarding this
    concern.” Exhibit 3 at 175.
    The day after this May 2015 phone call, Ms. Cottingham’s mother retained
    the petitioner’s current attorney, Andrew Downing. Pet’r’s Mot., filed Oct. 26,
    2016, at 4.3 Within a few days, a paralegal was requesting information from Ms.
    Cottingham’s mother to obtain medical records. Timesheets, pages 9-10.
    Ms. Cottingham returned to the pediatric gynecology clinic of the University
    of Alabama-Birmingham on July 8, 2015. The doctor recorded that her abnormal
    uterine bleeding was now resolved with the use of oral contraceptives. The doctor
    continued the prescription. Exhibit 7 at 11-13.
    B.        Procedural History regarding Litigation’s Entitlement Phase
    At the law firm, a paralegal continued the process of requesting and
    obtaining medical records throughout the summer of 2015. On October 16, 2015,
    2
    A duplicate of this record appears as exhibit 10, page 4.
    3
    Until recently, the petitioner was Susan Cottingham, the mother of Kasey Cottingham.
    Susan Cottingham initiated the claim on her daughter’s behalf because Kasey was a minor. The
    various documents throughout most of this litigation refer to Kasey Cottingham by her initials,
    K.C. During this litigation, Kasey Cottingham reached the age of majority and has been made
    the petitioner in this action. Order, filed Oct. 26, 2020.
    Whether Susan Cottingham or Kasey Cottingham is the petitioner does not affect the
    outcome. For simplicity, this decision views Kasey Cottingham as the petitioner throughout.
    However, in some quotations from earlier judicial rulings, the name “K.C.” has been replaced by
    “Ms. Cottingham.”
    6
    Mr. Downing reviewed the medical records received to date. Timesheets at 1.
    Shortly thereafter, Mr. Downing and his paralegal began working on a witness
    statement and drafting a petition. Timesheets at 1, 6.
    Mr. Downing submitted the petition on October 30, 2015. He maintained in
    it that Ms. Cottingham first experienced symptoms of a condition the HPV vaccine
    caused on November 1, 2012. Therefore, in Mr. Downing’s view, the 36-month
    statute of limitations expired on November 1, 2015. Pet’r’s Mot. for Rev., filed
    Apr. 27, 2017, at 5.
    The petition was not very specific. The introductory paragraph alleged that
    Ms. Cottingham suffered “a severe adverse reaction.” Paragraph four of the
    petition references headaches that began on November 1, 2012. Paragraphs six
    and seven refer to episodes of fainting in March and May 2013, respectively.
    Paragraph eight recounts that Ms. Cottingham’s mother was concerned about
    “autonomic dysfunction.” Paragraph nine asserts that Ms. Cottingham began
    having menstrual problems in the latter part of 2013.
    Over the next few months, Mr. Downing’s office obtained more medical
    records and filed them. On March 15, 2016, Mr. Downing submitted a statement
    of completion, representing that Ms. Cottingham had filed all the medical records
    of which she was aware.
    On March 28, 2016, a status conference was held. The Secretary stated that
    he was concerned about the reasonable basis for the petition. In response, Mr.
    Downing stated that Ms. Cottingham would attempt to retain an expert. See order,
    issued Mar. 28, 2016.
    Mr. Downing called one doctor, whom Mr. Downing has retained in other
    Vaccine Program cases, Dr. Nemechek. However, Dr. Nemechek did not provide
    a favorable opinion. After consulting Ms. Cottingham’s mother, Mr. Downing
    consulted a second expert, Dr. Lee. However, Dr. Lee also could not provide a
    favorable opinion. See Pet’r’s Mot., filed Oct. 26, 2016, at 6-7.
    On October 6, 2016, Ms. Cottingham filed a motion for a decision. Ms.
    Cottingham’s case was dismissed due to a lack of evidence. See Decision
    Dismissing Case, 
    2016 WL 6575170
    .
    7
    C.     Procedural History Relating to Petitioner’s
    Motions for Attorneys’ Fees and Costs
    1.    Initial Motion through Special Master’s Initial Adjudications
    Ms. Cottingham filed her first motion for attorneys’ fees and costs on
    October 26, 2016. She devoted one section of her accompanying brief to an
    argument that reasonable basis supported her petition. Ms. Cottingham primarily
    contended that her attorney was required to file her petition before the expiration of
    the time set by the statute of limitations. Therefore, the standard for evaluating
    reasonable basis should be more lenient. Pet’r’s Mot. for Attorneys’ Fees and
    Costs, filed Oct. 26, 2016, at 7. While the thrust of Ms. Cottingham’s argument in
    favor of a finding of reasonable basis was the looming statute of limitations, Ms.
    Cottingham also mentioned that she was diagnosed with syncope. 
    Id.
     at 4 (citing
    exhibit 3 at 111 (record dated July 25, 2013)). Ms. Cottingham continued:
    “Syncope is listed on the Gardasil product monograph as a known potential result
    of this vaccination, as well as a frequently reported side effect in the post-
    marketing experience.” 
    Id.
     Although Ms. Cottingham provided an internet link to
    the product monograph, she did not file it as an exhibit.
    After this discussion about the requirements to be eligible for attorneys’ fees
    and costs, Ms. Cottingham discussed the amount of attorneys’ fees and costs that
    would be reasonable. Id. at 8-21. Ms. Cottingham concluded that a reasonable
    amount was $10,363.00 in attorneys’ fees and $1,105.77 in costs. Ms. Cottingham
    supported her request with timesheets, invoices, and a memorandum approximately
    10 pages in length. Ms. Cottingham’s October 26, 2016 motion requested
    compensation for Mr. Downing’s work through October 18, 2016, when the
    entitlement phase of Ms. Cottingham’s case ended. In other words, the October
    26, 2016 motion did not request any fees for preparing the fee application itself.
    The Secretary argued that Ms. Cottingham’s case lacked a reasonable basis.
    Resp’t’s Resp., filed Nov. 14, 2016. The Secretary’s analysis was contained in two
    parts. First, the Secretary maintained “[t]he record contains no evidence to support
    a finding of reasonable basis.” Id. at 4. The Secretary reviewed five pieces of
    evidence that Ms. Cottingham had cited in her motion. In this context, the
    Secretary filed the product monograph as exhibit A. See id. at 5 n.1. The
    Secretary maintained that the product monograph did not support a reasonable
    basis because “the relevant period of concern addressed in the document is ‘15
    minutes after administration.’” Id. at 8 (citing exhibit A). In contrast, Ms.
    Cottingham’s episodes of syncope occurred eight and ten months after vaccination
    8
    and the doctors who treated her associated those syncopal episodes with
    dehydration.
    The Secretary’s second point against a finding of reasonable basis concerned
    the statute of limitations. To the Secretary, the pendency of the statute of
    limitations did not affect the analysis of reasonable basis. Id. at 11-13.
    Ms. Cottingham submitted a reply, reinforcing and repeating her arguments
    regarding reasonable basis. Pet’r’s Reply, filed Nov. 28, 2016. Ms. Cottingham
    added that an attorney’s leaving a potential petitioner with only a short time either
    to find a new attorney to represent her or to file a case pro se would be tantamount
    to an ethical violation. Id. at 4 (citing Simmons v. Secʼy of Health & Human
    Servs., No. 13-825V, 
    2016 WL 59378528
    , at *3 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. Apr. 14,
    2016)). Ms. Cottingham also replied to the Secretary’s discussion of the evidence.
    Id. at 4-8. To Ms. Cottingham, the Secretary was “comingling the analyses for
    entitlement and reasonable basis.” Id. at 4. Ms. Cottingham asserted that an article
    by S. Blitshteyn supported a claim that the HPV vaccination can cause syncope
    “well outside of the 15-minute window.” Id. at 7. However, Ms. Cottingham did
    not file this article.
    Respondent submitted a sur-reply noting that the Court granted a motion for
    review in Simmons. Resp’t’s Notice of Add’l Auth., filed Nov. 28, 2016. The
    Court in Simmons stated: “[A] statute of limitations deadline does not excuse
    counsel from endeavoring to confirm that the vaccine injury alleged has occurred
    by producing supporting evidence.” Simmons v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs.,
    
    128 Fed. Cl. 579
    , 584 (2016).
    The undersigned found that Ms. Cottingham did not satisfy the reasonable
    basis standard for two reasons. Cottingham v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs.,
    No. 15-1291V, 
    2017 WL 1476242
     (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. Mar. 30, 2017), vacated
    and remanded, 
    134 Fed. Cl. 567
     (2017) (hereinafter “First Fees Decision”). First,
    the undersigned interpreted the Vaccine Act as not allowing the reasonable basis
    standard to change because a statute of limitation was looming. Id. at *9-10.
    Second, the undersigned found that the evidence did not support a finding of
    reasonable basis. The First Fees Decision looked to see whether “medical records
    or medical opinions” supported the claims in the petition. Id. at *11. Because
    neither medical records nor medical opinions supported the assertion that the HPV
    9
    vaccination caused Ms. Cottingham’s headaches, fainting, or menstrual problems,
    the First Fees Decision did not award attorneys’ fees and costs. 4 Id. at *6-11.
    Ms. Cottingham sought reconsideration. Ms. Cottingham opened by arguing
    that an “evidence based standard” for evaluating reasonable basis “constitutes [an]
    error of law” and “violates the spirit and intent of the Vaccine Act[].” Pet’r’s Mot.
    for Recons., filed April 7, 2017, at 1. Ms. Cottingham developed her argument
    that the statute of limitations should affect the reasonable basis analysis. Id. at 1-5.
    She also maintained that the undersigned “inappropriately applied an entitlement
    analysis.” Id. at 5. Under this argument, Ms. Cottingham reviewed medical
    records, organized by whether her counsel received them before or after he filed
    the petition. A point of emphasis was that Ms. Cottingham submitted an affidavit
    about her headaches, which could have been credited despite its inconsistency with
    the medical records. Ms. Cottingham also maintained that when she started to
    experience symptoms was not part of the reasonable basis analysis because the
    “appropriateness of onset under Althen prong 3 is a question for experts – not an
    attorney.” Id. at 14. In this context, Ms. Cottingham quoted, but did not file, an
    article by Dr. Poser from 1982. Id.
    The undersigned found that Ms. Cottingham’s case did not warrant
    reconsideration. Cottingham v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., No. 15-1291V,
    
    2017 WL 2209904
     (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. Apr. 20, 2017). The analysis was, again,
    split into two parts. The first issue was the continuing dispute over whether the
    pendency of the statute of limitations affects the analysis of reasonable basis. The
    second part was a review of the evidence. Although Ms. Cottingham had
    maintained that the First Fees Decision “cherry pick[ed] the evidence,” she did not
    identify any records that were not discussed in the First Fees Decision. Id. at *3.
    Although Ms. Cottingham had maintained that her affidavit regarding the onset of
    her allegedly weekly headaches could have been credited, the lack of discussion in
    any medical record about “regular weekly headaches” made her affidavit “strain
    credibility.” Id. at *4. Finally, Ms. Cottingham had not established that the First
    Fees Decision improperly considered the temporal relationship between the
    4
    The First Fees Decision also looked at the attorney’s conduct. But, given later
    developments in Federal Circuit law, the attorney’s conduct is no longer relevant in determining
    reasonable basis.
    10
    vaccination and the alleged onset of different conditions. Consequently, Ms.
    Cottingham’s motion for reconsideration was denied.
    2.     First Motion for Review, First Opinion, and Second Fees
    Decision
    Ms. Cottingham filed a motion for review. She argued that the looming
    statute of limitations and the conduct of an attorney for petitioners affected the
    analysis of reasonable basis. Pet’r’s Mot. for Rev., filed April 27, 2017, at 2-6.
    Ms. Cottingham also argued that the special master erred by evaluating the case
    “under an elevated entitlement standard, not a reasonable basis standard.” Id. at 8.
    Much of this aspect of the motion for review repeats arguments in the motion for
    reconsideration. Ms. Cottingham emphasized the value of her affidavit,
    particularly in regard to her allegation that she experienced headaches on a weekly
    basis. See, e.g., id. at 14. Ms. Cottingham argued that her attorney was not
    responsible for determining whether the onset of her various conditions fell within
    a medically appropriate time. Id. at 15-17. In this context, Ms. Cottingham again
    quoted a Poser article, which was not an exhibit. Id. at 17. Ms. Cottingham’s
    April 27, 2017 motion for review did not reference the Blitshteyn article, which
    was not an exhibit, or the product monograph, which is exhibit A.
    The Secretary responded to both themes. First, the Secretary argued that an
    evidence-based standard was appropriate for evaluating reasonable basis. Resp’t’s
    Resp., filed May 26, 2017, at 9-17. Second, the Secretary maintained that the
    special master’s finding that Ms. Cottingham did not satisfy the reasonable basis
    standard under the totality of circumstances test was not arbitrary or capricious. Id.
    at 17-20. As part of this argument, the Secretary contended that “[b]ecause the
    petition was alleging injuries [Ms. Cottingham] did not have and timeframes
    between vaccination and onset that were facially suspect and unsupported by any
    medical opinion or prior case decisions, a ‘reasonable basis’ for the petition’s filing
    did not exist.” Id. at 19.
    Ms. Cottingham replied. She continued to press the value of her affidavit.
    Pet’r’s Reply, filed June 2, 2017, at 2 (citing Vaccine Rule 2(c)(2)(B)). To Ms.
    Cottingham, the special master “baffl[ingly] . . . ignore[d] under-oath testimony.”
    Id. Ms. Cottingham asserted that the undersigned “is the only Special Master to
    continue to espouse an evidence-based standard” for evaluating reasonable basis.
    Id. at 2. With respect to the evidence, Ms. Cottingham asserted that three articles
    connected the human papillomavirus vaccine to autonomic dysfunction. Id. at 9-
    10. However, the three articles (Martinez-Lavin, Kinoshita, and Brinth) were not
    11
    filed as exhibits. Ms. Cottingham did not cite the product monograph, although
    she referred to the Vaccine Injury Table, which associates HPV vaccination with
    syncope that occurs within one hour. Id. at 10.
    The Court granted the motion for review. Cottingham v. Sec’y of Health &
    Human Servs., 
    134 Fed. Cl. 567
     (2017) (hereinafter “First Opinion”). For each of
    the two reasons the First Fees Decision gave for finding that there was not a
    reasonable basis for the claim set forth in the petition, the Court stated that the
    standard was not correct. With respect to the discrepancy between Ms.
    Cottingham’s affidavit and the contemporaneously created medical records, the
    Court stated: “To interpret these medical records to vitiate any reasonable basis for
    the claim places too onerous a burden on counsel at the pleading stage.” Id. at 576.
    The Court continued: “Insisting that an injured claimant’s testimony precisely
    mesh with medical records is too exacting a standard to apply in assessing whether
    a claim has a reasonable basis.” Id.
    The Court’s ruling with respect to the temporal relationship between the
    vaccination and the onset of symptoms was similar. “The Special Master’s
    conclusion that Petitioner’s counsel was required to marshal evidence and
    precedent on the timing of onset of [HPV] vaccine injuries to establish a
    reasonable basis for filing a claim asks too much.” Id. Accordingly, the Court
    vacated the First Fees Decision and remanded for additional adjudication under the
    standard articulated in its ruling.
    After the Court issued its First Opinion, Ms. Cottingham filed a
    supplemental motion for attorneys’ fees and costs. This motion captures efforts of
    Mr. Downing and others beginning October 21, 2016. The motion encompassed
    work on the October 26, 2016 motion for attorneys’ fees and costs, the reply brief,
    the motion for reconsideration, and the motion for review. Ms. Cottingham sought
    $20,182.50 for attorneys’ work in litigating the fee dispute as well as an additional
    $1,758.09 in costs. Pet’r’s Supp’l Mot., filed Sept. 19, 2017. Following an
    informal request from the undersigned, Ms. Cottingham submitted her General
    Order #9 statement on November 6, 2017, indicating that Ms. Cottingham had not
    incurred any costs personally.
    The undersigned found that under the Court’s standard, Ms. Cottingham
    satisfied the reasonable basis standard. The undersigned did not consider the
    discrepancies between the medical records and Ms. Cottingham’s affidavit. The
    undersigned also did not consider the latency between vaccination and the onset of
    Ms. Cottingham’s headaches, fainting, or menstrual difficulties. Under the Court’s
    12
    standard, “[Ms. Cottingham’s] affidavit, by itself, carries Ms. Cottingham’s burden
    to establish a reasonable basis.” Cottingham v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs.,
    No. 15-1291V, 
    2017 WL 6816709
     (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. Dec. 12, 2017), vacated
    and remanded, 
    139 Fed. Cl. 88
     (2018) (hereinafter “Second Fees Decision”).
    With respect to the amount of attorneys’ fees and costs, the Second Fees
    Decision awarded Ms. Cottingham $32,909.36. Additional details about the
    rationale for this award is deferred until section VII below.
    3.      Second Motion for Review, Second Opinion, and Third Fees
    Decision
    This time, the Secretary challenged the undersigned’s decision. The
    Secretary argued that the Court vacate its September 18, 2017 [First] Opinion and
    reinstate the First Fees Decision, issued on March 30, 2017. The basis for this
    argument was that in a precedential opinion, the Federal Circuit held that neither a
    looming statute of limitations nor the actions of counsel were part of the
    examination into reasonable basis. The Federal Circuit, instead, required an
    “objective inquiry.” Resp’t’s Mot. for Rev., filed Jan. 10, 2018, at 9 (citing
    Simmons v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    876 F.3d 632
     (Fed. Cir. 2017)).
    After discussing Simmons, the Secretary turned to the record in Ms.
    Cottingham’s case. Referring the First Fees Decision, the Secretary maintained
    that “[b]ecause petitioner submitted no evidence to support the causation claim, the
    Special Master did not abuse his discretion in finding that the petitioner lacked a
    reasonable basis.” Resp’t’s Mot. for Rev. at 14. In other words, “without any
    evidence to support the causation claim, it is clear that petitioner fails to satisfy her
    burden for entitlement to compensation for attorneys’ fees and costs under the
    reasonable-basis standard.” Id. at 15 (emphasis in original). The Secretary further
    argued that “neither the affidavits nor [Ms. Cottingham’s] medical records support
    a finding of reasonable basis.” Id. (capitalization changed without notation). In
    doing so, the Secretary “respectfully object[ed]” to the Court’s faulting the special
    master for expecting an affidavit to mesh with the medical records. Id. at 17.5
    Similarly, the Secretary also “respectfully object[ed]” to the First Opinion’s
    determination that the special master wrongly required petitioner “to marshal
    5
    The Secretary maintained this position, in part, to preserve the issue for potential
    Federal Circuit review. Id. at 12.
    13
    evidence and precedent on timing of [Gardasil] vaccine injuries to establish a
    reasonable basis for filing a claim.” Id. at 15.6 Accordingly, the Secretary
    concluded that the Court should vacate its First Opinion and reinstate the First Fees
    Decision.
    Ms. Cottingham argued that the Court should affirm the Second Fees
    Decision. Ms. Cottingham stated that Simmons was distinguishable from her case
    in that in Simmons, the petition was accompanied “by nothing – no medical
    records or affidavits.” Pet’r’s Resp. to Mot. for Rev., filed Feb. 5, 2018, at 5. In
    contrast, Ms. Cottingham “produced both sworn statements . . . as well as
    objective, medical evidence supporting [her] complaints.” Id. at 6. “When [Ms.
    Cottingham’s] affidavit is considered in context with her medical records, there is
    certainly evidence supporting the Petition’s allegations. Furthermore, to say that
    Petitioner’s filing in the Vaccine Program was not supported by any evidence is
    simply a mischaracterization of the facts.” Id. at 8.
    Ms. Cottingham also argued that in the Secretary’s motion for review, the
    Secretary wrongly “comingles the causation and reasonable basis analysis.” Id. at
    9. The Secretary’s approach, in Ms. Cottingham’s view, was an attempt “to hold
    Petitioners to too high of a standard on reasonable basis.” Id. at 10.
    Finally, Ms. Cottingham addressed questions about temporal proximity.
    Citing the product monograph (exhibit A), she asserted that “the medical literature
    supports autonomic dysfunction as an adverse reaction that occurs well outside of
    the 15-minute window.” Id. at 10. Ms. Cottingham again cited, but did not file,
    articles by Blitshteyn, Martinez-Lavin, Kinoshita, and Brinth. Id. at 10-11.
    The Court granted the motion for review and vacated the Second Fees
    Decision. The Court ruled in an opinion issued on May 31, 2018, that the
    undersigned misinterpreted the Court’s First Opinion in that “the Court did not find
    that [Ms. Cottingham’s] affidavit alone would suffice to establish a finding of
    reasonable basis. Rather, this Court held that the medical records could be
    reconciled with the relevant testimony, and the two were not necessarily
    inconsistent.” Cottingham v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    139 Fed. Cl. 88
    , 94
    6
    Again, the Secretary noted that a Federal Circuit appeal on this issue was possible. Id.
    at 15.
    14
    (2018). Accordingly, the Court remanded with these instructions and to consider
    the effect of Simmons.
    After reviewing the evidence again, the undersigned found that Ms.
    Cottingham did not satisfy the reasonable basis standard. Based upon Simmons,
    the Third Fees Decision looked for evidence relating to claims set forth in the
    petition. The Third Fees Decision defined the claims set forth in the petition as
    “the HPV vaccination caused headaches within about four months, the HPV
    vaccination caused fainting roughly nine months later, and the HPV vaccination
    caused menstrual difficulties starting approximately 18 months later.” Cottingham
    v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., No. 15-1291V, 
    2018 WL 3432638
    , at *5 (Fed.
    Cl. Spec. Mstr. June 20, 2018), mot. for rev. denied, 
    141 Fed. Cl. 85
     (2018),
    vacated and remanded, 
    971 F.3d 1337
     (Fed. Cir. 2020) (hereinafter “Third Fees
    Decision”). To the undersigned, the key topic was “causation.” Accordingly, the
    undersigned looked for either a medical record or a medical opinion in which a
    medical doctor associated a vaccination with a medical problem. The undersigned
    found neither a medical opinion from a retained expert nor a medical record from a
    treating doctor. Accordingly, the undersigned found that Ms. Cottingham did not
    meet the reasonable basis standard. The undersigned did not discuss the product
    monograph, which had been filed as exhibit A. The undersigned also did not
    discuss the articles to which Ms. Cottingham had referred but had not cited.
    4.    Third Motion for Review and Third Opinion
    Ms. Cottingham filed her second motion for review on July 19, 2018, in
    which she requested the Court reverse the June 20, 2018 Fees Decision and award
    the petitioner $32,909.36 in attorneys’ fees. Pet’r’s 2d Mot. for Rev., filed July 19,
    2018, at 2. Ms. Cottingham developed her arguments in a memorandum filed in
    conjunction with the motion.
    To Ms. Cottingham, the Court’s First Opinion should have dictated the
    result. According to Ms. Cottingham, the Court did the following:
    1) construed the nature of the medical claims made; 2)
    documented that the symptoms and nature of the medical
    claims being made were reflected in the medical chart; 3)
    found that the medical chart corroborated the under-oath
    testimony from Petitioner, and 4) timing was acceptable
    – especially given that the onset timing for Gardasil
    injuries is not established.
    15
    Pet’r’s Mem. Supporting Pet’r’s 2d Mot. for Rev. at 7. Ms. Cottingham argued
    that the undersigned ignored these instructions and wrongly expanded the analysis
    of reasonable basis “into a causation analysis.” 
    Id.
     Ms. Cottingham maintained
    that she “provided medical records that substantiate her claims of vaccine injury
    causing harm.” Id. at 8. (However, Ms. Cottingham did not cite any medical
    records in this portion of her brief.) Ms. Cottingham also challenged the
    proposition that supplying a medical opinion or medical record was the standard
    for evaluating reasonable basis. Id. In addition, Ms. Cottingham argued that the
    special master “failed to consider the novelty of the Gardasil vaccination and the
    ever-increasing body of medical literature supporting insidious onset of Gardasil
    injuries.” Id. at 6.
    In contrast, the Secretary defended the June 20, 2018 decision. According to
    the Secretary, the “Special Master correctly observed that in this case, petitioner
    had not submitted any evidence to support her claim that [an] HPV vaccine caused
    [her] to suffer headaches, fainting, and/or menstrual problems.” Resp’t’s Resp. to
    Pet’r’s 2d Mot. for Rev., filed Aug. 20, 2018, at 2. The Secretary elaborated:
    “Because petitioner submitted no evidence to support causation, the Special Master
    necessarily concluded that petitioner failed to establish a reasonable basis for the
    claim for which the petition was brought under the objective inquiry for reasonable
    basis endorsed by Simmons.” Id. at 2-3 (emphasis in original).
    The Secretary disputed Ms. Cottingham’s argument that the undersigned
    disregarded the Court’s previous guidance. To the Secretary, the undersigned
    “weighed the affidavit evidence favorably, as previously directed.” Id. at 5-6. But,
    to the Secretary, Ms. Cottingham had not produced any evidence that the HPV
    vaccination caused any problem in her. “In any off-Table case, petitioner must do
    more than establish that the alleged injuries occurred; petitioner’s burden is to
    prove that the alleged injuries occurred and the vaccine was their cause.” Id. at 7
    (emphasis in original).
    The Secretary further argued that “there is no objective evidence that [Ms.
    Cottingham] suffered chronic headaches beginning four months after her HPV
    vaccine.” Id. at 11. Similarly, the Secretary maintained that the onset of fainting (8
    and 10 months after vaccination) and menstrual difficulties (18 months after
    vaccination) “appear too remote in time from her HPV vaccine to be considered
    temporally proximate.” Id. at 12. For both points, the Secretary advised that he
    wanted to preserve any objection for a possible appeal to the Federal Circuit.
    16
    In reply, Ms. Cottingham argued requiring “evidence of vaccine causation to
    find reasonable basis . . . is simply not the law.” Pet’r’s Reply, filed Aug. 27,
    2018, at 2. Consistent with this view of the law, Ms. Cottingham stated the “fact
    that her medical chart does not say ‘HPV vaccination is the cause’ is not a
    requirement of a reasonable basis test.” Id. at 4. Instead, Ms. Cottingham
    maintained that “[t]here is objective evidence in this record regarding symptoms
    present and their correlation back to vaccination.” Id. at 3. However, Ms.
    Cottingham did not cite any evidence in this passage. After making additional
    arguments, Ms. Cottingham concluded by requesting that the Court reverse the
    Third Fees Decision and award her $32,909.36 in attorneys’ fees and costs, or,
    alternatively, remand for further proceedings for an award of reasonable attorneys’
    fees and costs. Id. at 7.
    The Court denied the motion for review. The Court ruled that the special
    master did not impose too high a burden of proof to establish reasonable basis. In
    the Court’s view, the special master did not require Ms. Cottingham “to satisfy the
    Althen factors or otherwise demonstrate causation in fact.” Cottingham v. Sec’y of
    Health & Human Servs., 
    141 Fed. Cl. 85
    , 88 (2018), vacated and remanded, 
    971 F.3d 1337
     (Fed. Cir. 2020) (hereinafter “Third Opinion”). “Rather, in concluding
    that Petitioner’s claim lacked a reasonable basis, the Special Master focused on the
    lack of evidence in Petitioner’s medical records and the treating physicians’
    diagnosis, along with the absence of any expert opinion or supporting literature.”
    Id. at 88-89.
    In addition, the Court disagreed with Ms. Cottingham’s argument that the
    special master disagreed with an earlier finding from the Court. “Contrary to
    Petitioner’s argument, this Court did not reassess the sufficiency of Petitioner’s
    offered evidence or find that Petitioner had in fact provided sufficient evidence to
    demonstrate that her claim had a reasonable basis.” Id. at 88. Thus, on December
    28, 2018, a judgment, denying her attorneys’ fees and costs was entered.
    5.    Federal Circuit
    Ms. Cottingham appealed the judgment to the Federal Circuit. Ms.
    Cottingham argued that to establish reasonable basis, petitioners must present
    evidence that is “‘markedly less than needed to prove causation.’” Br. of Pet’r-
    Appellant, filed May 14, 2019, at 16 (quoting Bekiaris v. Sec’y of Health &
    Human Servs., 
    140 Fed. Cl. 108
    , 114 (2018)). Ms. Cottingham further argued that
    she met this standard because “she provided evidence demonstrating her receipt of
    a covered vaccination. Petitioner presented evidence in her medical chart
    17
    documenting the very injuries and symptoms which she claimed was related to her
    receipt of said vaccination. Petitioner articulated a rational and reasonable causal
    connection between the two. Reasonable basis exists.” 
    Id.
    Ms. Cottingham directed the Federal Circuit to earlier briefs (discussed
    above) in which she cited medical articles by Blitshteyn, Martinez-Lavin,
    Kinoshita, and Ozawa. Id. at 17-18. Ms. Cottingham also asserted that the HPV
    vaccination was a novel vaccination. Ms. Cottingham next reviewed the material
    contained in medical records and maintained that medical records support the
    assertions in her affidavit. See id. at 20-25. In this context, Ms. Cottingham stated
    that the product monograph for Gardasil “connect[s]” the HPV vaccine with
    “headache, nausea, syncope, abdominal pain and dizziness.” Id. at 23. In
    conclusion, based upon those arguments, Ms. Cottingham requested that the
    Federal Circuit vacate the decision and “remand with instructions to award
    attorneys’ fees and costs.” Id. at 27.
    In response, the Secretary urged the Federal Circuit to confirm that
    Simmons, in his view, had rejected the “totality of the circumstances test.” Br. of
    Resp’t-Appellee, filed June 5, 2019, at 12-17. In terms of Ms. Cottingham’s case,
    the Secretary maintained the decision that the petition lacked a reasonable basis
    should be affirmed because she “submitted no evidence on a critical element –
    specifically, vaccine-causation.” Id. at 17. To the Secretary, although Ms.
    Cottingham “discusses certain medical records that allegedly ‘support [her] injury
    claim,’ those records merely document that [she] was experiencing certain
    symptoms in the several months after her vaccination; they do not causally relate
    those symptoms to the Gardasil vaccine.” Id. at 19 (quoting Br. of Pet’r-Appellant
    at 9).
    The Secretary reviewed various pieces of evidence on which Ms.
    Cottingham relied. The Secretary maintained that the alleged onset of headaches
    (four months after the vaccination) presented an immediate and obvious “obstacle
    to proving causation.” Id. at 21. The Secretary disputed Ms. Cottingham’s
    characterization of the HPV vaccination as “novel.” Id. The Secretary noted that
    the articles on which Ms. Cottingham was relying were not part of the record and
    that the articles, by their titles, addressed different conditions. Id. at 22-23. The
    Secretary, however, did not address the product monograph, which the Secretary
    had filed into the record as exhibit A.
    The Federal Circuit granted Ms. Cottingham some, but not all, of the relief
    she sought. The Federal Circuit vacated the December 28, 2018 judgment.
    18
    However, as discussed below, the Federal Circuit did not order an award of
    attorneys’ fees, remanding that question.
    As to the question regarding whether special masters may consider “the
    totality of the circumstances,” the Federal Circuit stated that Simmons did not
    reject this test. Cottingham v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    971 F.3d 1337
    ,
    1344-45 (Fed. Cir. 2020). Petitioners can satisfy the “objective test” of reasonable
    “through objective evidence.” Id. at 1344.
    The Federal Circuit further explained that petitioners “must point to
    evidence of a causal relationship between the administration of the vaccine and
    [their] injuries in order to establish that a reasonable basis for the claim existed
    when the petition was filed.” Id. at 1346. This evidence is lower than the
    preponderance of evidence standard. “Indeed, more than a mere scintilla but less
    than a preponderance of evidence could provide sufficient grounds for a special
    master to find reasonable basis.” Id.
    When the Federal Circuit measured the information that Ms. Cottingham had
    provided, the Federal Circuit deemed the undersigned’s statement that Ms.
    Cottingham had “presented ‘no evidence’ that supported [her] assertion that the
    Gardasil vaccination caused [her] injuries” constituted reversible error in that it
    “rests on a clearly erroneous fact finding.” Id. at 1344-45.
    6.    Remand After Federal Circuit Decision
    After the Federal Circuit issued its mandate and an order was issued
    remanding the case back to the undersigned on October 14, 2020, the undersigned
    issued an order setting out a briefing schedule on October 15, 2020. The parties
    filed initial briefs on November 19, 2020, and filed reply briefs on December 7,
    2020. The undersigned then scheduled an oral argument for December 14, 2020,
    and issued some guidance on the content of the oral argument on December 11,
    2020. Oral argument was held remotely via videoconferencing on December 14,
    2020. Oral argument proved helpful in extrapolating the parties’ various points on
    remand.
    II.   Scope of Remand
    Preliminarily, the parties dispute the scope of the Federal Circuit’s remand.
    To Ms. Cottingham, a denial of attorneys’ fees would constitute “legal error.”
    Pet’r’s Br., filed Nov. 19, 2020, at 4. Ms. Cottingham bases this argument on
    19
    Federal Circuit statements such as “the record does contain objective evidence of
    causation supporting a reasonable basis,” and “[Ms. Cottingham’s] medical records
    paired with the Gardasil package insert thus constitute at minimal circumstantial,
    objective evidence supporting causation.” Id. at 3-4 (quoting Cottingham v. Sec’y
    of Health & Human Servs., 
    917 F.3d 1337
    , 1346 (Fed. Cir. 2020)); accord id. at
    17.
    On the other hand, the Secretary maintains the “Special Master absolutely
    possesses discretion on remand to find that petitioner has not satisfied the
    reasonable basis standard.” Resp’t’s Br., filed Nov. 19, 2020, at 1. To the
    Secretary, the key passage from the Federal Circuit is the statement: “To be clear,
    we make no determination on the weight of the objective evidence in the record or
    whether that evidence establishes reasonable basis, for these are factual findings
    for the Special Master, and not this court.” Id. (quoting Cottingham, 917 F.3d at
    1346-47).
    As a subordinate tribunal, the undersigned must abide by the mandate of a
    reviewing appellate authority. The undersigned interprets the Federal Circuit’s
    opinion as not dictating a result on remand.
    In other cases, the Federal Circuit has defined its scope of review.
    Ordinarily, the Federal Circuit does not find facts. Deribeaux v. Sec’y of Health &
    Human Servs., 
    717 F.3d 1363
    , 1366 (Fed. Cir. 2013); Munn v. Sec’y of Health &
    Human Servs., 
    970 F.2d 863
    , 868-71 (Fed. Cir. 1992). But see Andreu v. Sec’y of
    Health & Human Servs., 
    569 F.3d 1367
    , 1375 (Fed. Cir. 2009) (finding that
    petitioners were entitled to compensation).
    “Upon return of its mandate, the district court cannot give relief beyond the
    scope of that mandate, but it may act on matters left open by the mandate.”
    Laitram Corp. v. NEC Corp., 
    115 F.3d 947
    , 951 (Fed. Cir. 1997) (quoting Caldwell
    v. Puget Sound Elec. Apprenticeship & Training Tr., 
    824 F.2d 765
    , 767 (9th Cir.
    1987)) (internal quotation marks omitted). Here, as the Secretary points out, see
    Resp’t’s Br. at 1, the Federal Circuit did not reverse the outcome. Instead, the
    Federal Circuit vacated and remanded.
    Accordingly, the undersigned interprets the Federal Circuit’s opinion and
    mandate as requiring a re-examination of the evidence under the totality of
    circumstances to determine whether Ms. Cottingham possessed a reasonable basis
    for the claim set forth in the petition. The undersigned understands the Federal
    Circuit did not require a particular result.
    20
    III.   Standards for Adjudication
    When a petitioner does not receive compensation (like Ms. Cottingham
    here), a petitioner remains eligible for an award of attorneys’ fees and costs when a
    special master “determines that the petition was brought in good faith and there
    was a reasonable basis for the claim for which the petition was brought.” 42
    U.S.C. § 300aa–15(e). Here, the Secretary has not raised a challenge to Ms.
    Cottingham’s good faith. Thus, the disputed issue is reasonable basis.
    The precise standard by which special masters should evaluate claims of
    reasonable basis is still being fleshed out. However, some points about reasonable
    basis have been established in the last few years. The evidentiary standard for
    determining reasonable basis is less than the preponderance of the evidence.
    Chuisano v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., No. 07-452V, 
    2013 WL 6324660
    , at
    *12-13 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. Oct. 25, 2013), mot. for rev. denied, 
    116 Fed. Cl. 276
    (2014).
    When a petitioner submits literally no evidence, then a petitioner lacks a
    reasonable basis. Simmons v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    875 F.3d 632
    (Fed. Cir. 2017). Simmons, thus, clarified that petitioners meet their burden to
    establish reasonable basis by presenting objective evidence. Id. at 635-36.7
    In cases in which petitioners submit some objective evidence, Simmons does
    not control the result. The Federal Circuit saw the present case as one in which
    Ms. Cottingham had presented some evidence of reasonable basis. Thus, the
    Federal Circuit reasoned “more than a mere scintilla but less than a preponderance
    of proof could provide sufficient grounds for a special master to find reasonable
    basis.” Cottingham, 917 F.3d at 1346.
    The operative word in that quotation is “could.” The presence of “more than
    a mere scintilla” of evidence does not mandate a finding of reasonable basis. This
    lesson is demonstrated by the Federal Circuit’s earlier precedential opinion on
    reasonable basis, Perreira v. Secretary of Health & Human Services. In that case,
    7
    As outlined in the procedural history, much of the parties’ arguments in earlier portions
    of the case concerned whether Ms. Cottingham’s affidavit constituted evidence supporting
    reasonable basis. Ms. Cottingham put this argument forward to the Federal Circuit as well.
    However, the Federal Circuit did not resolve whether a petitioner’s affidavit can constitute
    “objective evidence” supporting, in whole or in part, a finding of reasonable basis.
    21
    the Perreiras alleged that a 1982 administration of the diphtheria-pertussis-tetanus
    (“DPT”) vaccine harmed their daughter, Carly. Initially, the Perreiras maintained
    that Carly started having seizures four days after the second dose of DPT, based
    upon the testimony of Carly’s mother. The former Chief Special Master declined
    to credit Ms. Perreira’s testimony and found, instead, that the seizures started 20
    days after the second dose of DPT. Perreira v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs.,
    No. 90-847V, 
    1991 WL 117740
    , at *1, 1 n.2 (Cl. Ct. Spec. Mstr. June 13, 1991).
    Given this fact finding regarding the sequence of events, the Perreiras
    attempted to establish a significant aggravation claim. They based this alternative
    claim on the contention that two weeks after the third dose of DPT, Carly had more
    seizures. The former Chief Special Master rejected the Perreiras’ claim because
    there was no support for their expert’s opinion that DPT causes harm that would
    first appear two weeks later. 
    Id.
    After the entitlement proceedings concluded, the Perreiras sought an award
    for their attorneys’ fees and costs. The former Chief Special Master found that the
    Perreiras had a reasonable basis for filing their petition. Perreira v. Sec’y of Health
    & Human Servs., No. 90-487V, 
    1992 WL 164436
    , at *2 (Cl. Ct. Spec. Mstr. June
    12, 1993).
    The decision does not provide a reason for finding reasonable basis.
    However, the former Chief Special Master explicitly found that a reasonable basis
    no longer existed after the expert submitted a report, noting that the expert’s theory
    “amounted to his own unsupported speculation[,]” and that the Perreiras’ attorney
    should have recognized that the expert’s theory “was legally insufficient to
    establish causation.” Id. at *1-2. The former Chief Special Master also stated that
    the Perreiras’ attorney recognized that this case “was a ‘bad case.’” Id.
    The Perreiras filed a motion for review of the denial of a portion of the
    attorneys’ fees and costs. In finding the former Chief Special Master's
    determination not arbitrary, the Court of Federal Claims rejected the petitioners’
    arguments, including an argument that “counsel had an absolute right to rely on the
    expert’s opinion in pursuing the case.” Perreira v. Sec'y of Health & Human
    Servs., 
    27 Fed. Cl. 29
    , 33 (1992).
    These decisions form the background for the Federal Circuit’s discussion of
    “reasonable basis” in its Perreira opinion. Affirming the original decision, the
    22
    Federal Circuit held that the Chief Special Master could determine that a petitioner
    lacked reasonable basis, despite an expert report, because “the expert opinion was
    grounded in neither medical literature nor studies.” Perreira v. Sec’y of Health &
    Human Servs., 
    33 F.3d 1375
    , 1377 (Fed. Cir. 1994). The Federal Circuit explained
    that “[t]he special master did not require counsel to verify the validity of the
    expert's opinion, but only required the opinion to be more than unsupported
    speculation.” 
    Id.
    “Perreira demonstrates that special masters enjoy discretion to find that a
    claim lacked a reasonable basis when the evidence on which the petitioners relies
    (there, an expert’s report) is rooted in unsupported speculation.” Ellis v. Sec’y of
    Health & Human Servs., No. 13-336V, 
    2019 WL 3315326
    , at *4 (Fed. Cl. Spec.
    Mstr. June 24, 2019). The Federal Circuit provided the “reasonable basis”
    standard with some teeth in Perreira, by declaring: “Congress must not have
    intended that every claimant, whether being compensated or not under the Vaccine
    Act, collect attorneys’ fees and costs by merely having an expert state an
    unsupported opinion.” 
    33 F.3d at 1377
    .
    It appears that the testimony of an expert constitutes “more than a mere
    scintilla” of evidence. If so, then Perreira demonstrates that a petitioner could
    present some evidence regarding causation and yet not satisfy the reasonable basis
    standard.
    While the Federal Circuit did not cite Perreira in Cottingham, the Federal
    Circuit’s use of the term “could” in Cottingham also suggests that special masters
    can reach different outcomes and those disparate outcomes might all be rational.
    In the context of determining whether petitioners have met their burden to present
    preponderant evidence supporting causation, appellate authorities have recognized
    that questions of causation turn on the evidence presented, and reasonable special
    masters may weigh evidence differently. Lampe v. Sec’y of Health & Human
    Servs., 
    219 F.3d 1357
    , 1368 (Fed. Cir. 2000); Estep v. Sec’y of Health & Human
    Servs., 
    28 Fed. Cl. 664
    , 669 (1993). Different outcomes among special masters as
    to the weight and “utility” of scientific and factual evidence are “within Program
    standards.” Sharpnack v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    27 Fed. Cl. 457
    , 461
    (1993); see also Snyder v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    88 Fed. Cl. 706
    , 720
    (2009) (“The special masters were free to reach different conclusions based on the
    same evidence.”) (citing Sharpnack, 27 Fed. Cl. at 461). Thus, special masters’
    adjudications on entitlement do not dictate outcome in other cases. Boatmon v.
    Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    941 F.3d 1351
    , 1358 (Fed. Cir. 2019).
    23
    The possibility that different finders of fact can reach different outcomes on
    entitlement also appears to extend to questions of reasonable basis. See Silva v.
    Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    108 Fed. Cl. 401
    , 402 (2012) (stating, before
    Simmons and Cottingham, that the Vaccine Act gives a special master “maximum”
    discretion in determining reasonable basis). This discretion to weigh evidence
    differently and to reach different conclusions regarding reasonable basis (or the
    lack thereof) means that decisions of other special masters do not constitute
    binding precedent.
    While special masters seem to enjoy latitude in how they evaluate evidence,
    special masters must conform to legal standards set by appellate authorities. After
    the Federal Circuit’s remand in Ms. Cottingham’s case, the parties continue to
    dispute at least two related questions of law. First, the parties offer competing
    understandings of the terms “feasibility” and “feasible” in the context of
    reasonable basis. Second, the parties differ on whether, to establish a reasonable
    basis for the claims set forth in a petition, petitioners must present some evidence
    that a vaccination caused this particular vaccinee’s problem via a treating doctor or
    retained expert.
    Ms. Cottingham maintains that a claim possesses reasonable basis when a
    petitioner: “(1) receives a covered vaccination; (2) produces medical records
    demonstrating the complaints alleged; and (3) it is feasible to think that the
    documented complaints could have been caused by the vaccination at issue.”
    Pet’r’s Br. at 5. While at this portion of her brief Ms. Cottingham cites no
    authority for this definition, she later relates her understanding of “feasible” to the
    Federal Circuit’s statement that “[Ms. Cottingham’s] injuries paired with the
    Gardasil package insert thus constitute a minimum circumstantial, objective
    evidence supporting causation.” Id. at 5 (quoting Cottingham, 917 F.3d at 1346).
    The Secretary uses “feasible” differently. To the Secretary, a claim may
    satisfy the reasonable basis standard when a petitioner can “point to some objective
    evidence to support each of the Althen prongs because an absence of evidence as
    to any necessary element of the petitioner’s prima facie case necessarily means the
    claim has no feasibility of success.” Resp’t’s Br. at 5. The Secretary analogizes
    the reasonable basis standard to the summary judgment standard in which a failure
    of proof on an element of a nonmoving party’s case warrants judgment as a matter
    of law. Id. (citing Celotex Corp. v. Catrett, 
    477 U.S. 317
    , 323 (1986)); see also id.
    at 8 (maintaining that before Ms. Cottingham filed a motion to dismiss her case
    voluntarily, the Secretary was entitled to judgment as a matter of law).
    24
    The Secretary’s linking “feasibility” to the prongs found in Althen v.
    Secretary of Health & Human Services, 
    418 F.3d 1274
    , 1278 (Fed. Cir. 2005),
    introduces the second legal question on which the parties differ. Ms. Cottingham
    argues: “Delving into a causation under Althen is an improper elevation of the
    reasonable basis standard. . . . [Petitioner] does not need to prove either Althen
    prongs 1 or 2 by a preponderance of evidence.” Pet’r’s Br. at 5. Ms. Cottingham
    expands this argument to include the timing prong of Althen as well: “Requiring
    [petitioner] to satisfy Althen prong 3 for a finding of reasonable basis would
    constitute legal error.” Id. at 10.
    The Secretary offers a different view. To satisfy the reasonable basis
    standard, “a petitioner must present objective evidence to support each of the
    Althen prongs, along with the other essential elements laid out in Section 11(c) of
    the [Vaccine] Act.” Resp’t’s Br. at 5. The Secretary’s conclusion is based upon
    the Federal Circuit’s summary of what the Vaccine Act (42 U.S.C. § 300aa–
    11(c)(1)) requires in a petition. Id. at 3. In particular, the third of five statutory
    elements requires that the vaccinee have “sustained . . . an injury . . . that was
    caused by the vaccine.” Cottingham, 971 F.3d at 1345-46. The Federal Circuit
    mandated that Ms. Cottingham “must point to evidence of a causal relationship
    between the administration of the vaccine and her injuries in order to establish that
    a reasonable basis for the claim existed when the petition was filed.” Id. at 1346.
    The “causal relationship,” in turn, is defined as the three-part test in Althen, 
    418 F.3d at 1278
    .
    Althen’s three-part test takes significance with respect to prong 2. Prong 2
    of Althen requires, for purposes of entitlement, that a petitioner demonstrate with
    preponderant evidence “a logical sequence of cause and effect showing that the
    vaccination was the reason for the injury.” 
    418 F.3d at 1278
    . The Secretary argues
    that “the record in this case is devoid of any evidence to address the second prong
    of the Althen test. Accordingly, petitioner has failed to present even a scintilla of
    evidence to address an essential element of her claim.” Resp’t’s Br. at 3.
    Similarly, during oral argument, the Secretary maintained that in an off-Table case,
    petitioners are required to have “some medical expert, whether that’s a treating
    physician or an expert, tie the vaccination to the alleged injuries,” Tr. 67, and that
    the lack of a report from a treating doctor or retained expert affects the reasonable
    basis analysis.
    On these two points, the Secretary is more persuasive, offering a view that is
    consistent with the Vaccine Act, Perreira, and Simmons. But, as explained below,
    25
    Ms. Cottingham’s position is not wholly implausible as it, potentially, is more
    consistent with the Federal Circuit’s opinion in this case.
    Preliminarily, although the parties use the terms “feasibility” and “feasible”
    to evaluate reasonable basis, the appropriateness of this terminology is unclear.
    Simmons directs special masters to look at objective evidence. Simmons, 875 F.3d
    at 635-36. The Federal Circuit in Simmons did not use the terms “feasibility” or
    “feasible.” Similarly, the Federal Circuit in Cottingham also did not use the terms
    “feasibility” or “feasible.”
    Cottingham advances the jurisprudence around reasonable basis by directing
    special masters to look for Simmons’s “objective evidence” in the elements
    comprising a petitioner’s case-in-chief, that is, the five elements listed 42 U.S.C.
    § 300aa–11(c)(1). One of those statutorily required elements (paragraph (C)) is a
    showing of causation.
    For cases in which petitioners (like Ms. Cottingham) allege an off-Table
    injury, the Federal Circuit defined how petitioners demonstrate causation-in-fact in
    Althen v. Secretary of Health & Human Services, 
    418 F.3d 1274
    , 1278 (Fed. Cir.
    2005). According to Hibbard v. Secretary of Health & Human Services, 
    698 F.3d 1355
    , 1366 (Fed. Cir. 2012), the en banc Federal Circuit opinion in Cloer v.
    Secretary of Health & Human Services, 
    654 F.3d 1322
    , 1334 n.4 (Fed. Cir. 2011),
    “characterized Althen as setting forth ‘three pleading requirements for a non-Table
    injury petition.’”8 Cloer, itself, explained that in off-Table cases, “a petitioner
    must file an affidavit and supporting documentation demonstrating that the
    ‘vaccine-related injury’ for which compensation is sought was caused by a
    vaccine.” Cloer, 
    654 F.3d at 1334
    .
    It would seem that the Federal Circuit’s statement that Ms. Cottingham
    “must point to evidence of a causal relationship between the administration of the
    vaccine and her injuries in order to establish that a reasonable basis for the claim
    existed when the petition was filed,” Cottingham, 917 F.3d at 1346, must be
    importing the Althen factors into the reasonable basis analysis. However,
    Cottingham does not refer to Althen at all.
    8
    While the Althen test might be pleading elements, Ms. Cottingham’s petition does not
    include assertions about specific parts of the Althen test.
    26
    As set forth above, the Secretary’s position is that an analysis of the
    “objective evidence” must account for all the Althen factors. Ms. Cottingham’s
    position on this point, however, is not clear due to some rhetorical sleight-of-hand.
    Ms. Cottingham argues in the reasonable basis context, a petitioner “does not need
    to prove either Althen prongs 1 or 2 by a preponderance of evidence.” Pet’r’s Br.
    at 5 (emphasis added). Additionally, Ms. Cottingham maintains that “[r]equiring
    [petitioner] to satisfy Althen prong 3 for a finding of reasonable basis would
    constitute legal error.” Id. at 10 (emphasis added).
    What Ms. Cottingham has stated is literally accurate, but misdirected. The
    preponderance of evidence standard is the standard by which special masters
    determine whether petitioners are entitled to compensation. 42 U.S.C. § 300aa–13.
    The preponderance of the evidence standard is not the correct standard for
    determining whether petitioners established a reasonable basis for the claims set
    forth in the petition. By referring to the “preponderance of the evidence” standard,
    Ms. Cottingham has muddied the waters on the question as to whether the “more
    than a mere scintilla of evidence” standard applies to each of the Althen prongs.
    Given Cottingham’s focus on “causation,” as well as the wide-spread
    acceptance of the Althen three-part test for causation-in-fact cases, the undersigned
    holds that an examination of reasonable basis should include an analysis to see
    whether objective evidence supports a petition’s claim with respect to each of the
    Althen prongs.9 The evidentiary support on any of the three prongs does not have
    to satisfy the preponderance of the evidence standard. But, the evidentiary support
    on all the three prongs must be “more than a mere scintilla.”
    The clarification that the reasonable basis analysis should encompass each of
    the Althen prongs is both small and consequential. The clarification is “small” in
    the sense that it would seem that the causation element found in section
    11(c)(1)(C) would be undefined without the Althen test. Althen’s interpretation of
    the causation standard illuminates the meaning of the Vaccine Act. To jettison the
    Althen test for purposes of reasonable basis would leave litigants and special
    masters in the dark.
    9
    If Cottingham intended the causation element for off-Table cases to mean something
    other than the Althen test, Cottingham did not set forth any alternative way of reviewing
    causation.
    27
    On the other hand, looking at each of the Althen prongs as part of the
    examination into determining whether reasonable basis supports the claims set
    forth in the petition is “consequential” because of how petitioners satisfy the
    second prong of Althen. The second prong of Althen has been approvingly likened
    to asking the question “did the vaccine cause” the petitioner’s injury? Pafford v.
    Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    451 F.3d 1352
    , 1356 (Fed. Cir. 2006) (finding
    the special master’s formulation consistent with Althen). This formulation
    corresponds to the claims set forth in Ms. Cottingham’s petition: the HPV
    vaccination caused Ms. Cottingham to suffer headaches, fainting, menstrual
    difficulties, and autonomic dysfunction. See Pet. As the Federal Circuit
    explained, “[t]he Vaccine Act provides that there must be a ‘reasonable basis for
    the claim for which the petition was brought.’” Simmons, 875 F.3d at 636
    (emphasis in Simmons). The petition here sets out the claim that not only can the
    HPV vaccination cause headaches, fainting, menstrual difficulties, and autonomic
    dysfunction in general, but also the HPV vaccination caused those problems in Ms.
    Cottingham, a recipient of the HPV vaccine, specifically.
    The challenge is that an assessment that the vaccination harmed the vaccinee
    would seem to come from a qualified person who is knowledgeable about the
    vaccinee’s history. This informed and qualified person would normally produce
    “medical records or . . . medical opinion” on which a special master may rely in
    awarding petitioners compensation. 42 U.S.C. § 300aa–13(a).
    The ensuing question is whether “medical records,” which come from
    treating doctors or “medical opinion,” which come from experts retained in the
    litigation, are required to show, at the mere scintilla of evidence standard, a
    reasonable basis for the claim set forth in the petition. For the reasons explained
    above, if petitioners must present more than a scintilla of evidence regarding
    Althen prong 2, then petitioners must file a statement from a treating doctor or
    qualified expert indicating that the vaccination harmed the vaccinee because, it
    would seem, that only treating doctors or qualified experts can express reliable
    opinions about causation about a particular person. See Vaccine Rule 8(b)(1)
    (requiring special masters to consider “relevant and reliable evidence”). Of course,
    people who are not medically trained might offer opinions about causation, but
    those opinions might not be reliable.
    A focus on treating doctors and qualified experts is not only logical but also
    is consistent with the Vaccine Act. Congress dictated that special masters may
    find petitioners entitled to compensation only when the claims, as defined in
    28
    section 11(c)(1) (petitions), were substantiated “by medical records or by medical
    opinion.” 42 U.S.C. § 300aa–13(a)(1). The provision that authorizes awards of
    attorneys’ fees also depends upon a finding that “there was a reasonable basis for
    the claim for which the petition was brought.” 42 U.S.C. § 300aa–15(e)(1).
    Because both section 13(a)(1) and 15(e)(1) reference petitions, a fair understanding
    of the Vaccine Act as a whole indicates that the analysis of reasonable basis would
    at least consider whether “medical records” or “medical opinions” support the
    claims set forth in the petition. See Sebelius v. Cloer, 
    569 U.S. 369
    , 377 (2013)
    (discussing cross-references in section 11(a), and section 15(e)); Heinzelman v.
    Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    681 F.3d 1374
    , 1377 (Fed. Cir. 2012)
    (construing the Vaccine Act according to the language and design of the statute as
    a whole).
    Ms. Cottingham offers two ultimately unpersuasive arguments against this
    method of analyzing whether reasonable basis supports the claims set forth in the
    petition. First, again relying upon a bit of subterfuge, Ms. Cottingham argues that
    “[a] reasonable basis analysis cannot possibly hinge on whether causation is stated
    by treating physicians in the Petitioner’s medical chart.” Pet’r’s Reply at 3. But,
    “medical records” are just one of two ways a petitioner might present more than a
    scintilla of evidence regarding her proof on Althen prong two. The other
    alternative---a “medical opinion”---is closed to Ms. Cottingham only because she
    did not obtain a report from an expert. A report from a qualified expert stating that
    the vaccination harmed Ms. Cottingham might have constituted more than a mere
    scintilla of objective evidence that could have grounded a finding that a reasonable
    basis supported the claims set forth in Ms. Cottingham’s petition. Cf. Perreira,
    
    1992 WL 164436
    , at *1-2 (finding that petitioner’s claim with a wholly
    unsupported expert report lacked reasonable basis after the expert report was filed),
    mot. for rev. denied, 
    27 Fed. Cl. 29
     (1992), aff’d, 
    33 F.3d 1375
     (Fed. Cir. 1994).
    Only Ms. Cottingham’s earlier unsuccessful pursuit of an expert opinion causes the
    analysis of reasonable basis in her case now to “hinge” on the medical records her
    treating doctors created.
    Ms. Cottingham’s second argument has somewhat more force but ultimately
    lacks persuasiveness. This argument derives principally from the Federal Circuit’s
    declaration that Ms. Cottingham’s “medical records paired with the Gardasil
    package insert constitutes objective evidence supporting causation.” Cottingham,
    917 F.3d at 1346, quoted in Pet’r’s Br. at 5. For this reason, Ms. Cottingham
    maintains that she has enough evidence for Althen prong 2. Pet’r’s Br. at 5.
    During oral argument, Ms. Cottingham’s attorney expanded on this point. Mr.
    29
    Downing asserted that the product insert and the medical articles constitute
    objective evidence for alleging that the HPV vaccine can cause headaches,
    fainting, menstrual difficulties. Mr. Downing further asserted that the Kinoshita
    article makes the timing “at least feasible.” Tr. 98. Then, and this is critical, Mr.
    Downing stated: “so all I’ve done is I’ve taken my prong 1 theory and applied it to
    the medical chart of this young woman. That is a prong 2 analysis.” Id.
    May the view of the petitioner’s attorney’s carry petitioner’s burden to
    establish the reasonable basis for the claim set forth in the petition? The Secretary
    answered: Mr. Downing’s assessment may be relevant to determining whether
    “there was good faith to bring the claim, but it has no bearing on whether there is a
    reasonable evidentiary basis for the claim set forth in the petition.” Tr. 105.
    Relatedly, during oral argument, Ms. Cottingham contended that the
    Secretary raised---and the Federal Circuit rejected---the argument that the lack of
    evidence on Althen prong 2 foreclosed a finding of reasonable basis for the claims
    set forth in the petition. Tr. 69-69, 114; see also Tr. 111. Ms. Cottingham’s last
    point seems not to match the record exactly. The Secretary’s brief to the Federal
    Circuit did not cite Althen and did not use the term “prong 2” (or “prong two”). It
    appears that the closest the Secretary came to advance the argument in the Federal
    Circuit is that the medical articles, which Ms. Cottingham cited, should have been
    accompanied by an expert report to opine they support Ms. Cottingham’s claim.
    Br. Appellee-Respondent at 28. Therefore, the Federal Circuit’s opinion does not
    prevent a deeper evaluation of the statements from Ms. Cottingham’s treating
    doctors.
    IV.   Re-Assessment of Evidence Potentially Relevant to Reasonable Basis
    Ms. Cottingham presented evidence, falling into four categories. First, she
    presented her medical records. While section I.A. above, discusses her medical
    records, they are again discussed in section A below to evaluate whether they
    support the claims contained in the petition. Second, section B below reviews her
    affidavit. Third, section C discusses the product insert. Finally, an analysis of the
    medical articles is found in Section D.
    A.     Medical Records
    The Federal Circuit directed a more detailed analysis of seven medical
    records. Accordingly, the parties were directed to address them. Order, issued
    Oct. 15, 2020, ¶¶ 15-16. They are discussed in chronological order starting with
    30
    the earliest created record. For reference, Ms. Cottingham received the allegedly
    causal vaccination on July 5, 2012.
    November 30, 2012
    Ms. Cottingham, who was 14 years old, saw a pediatrician, John Simpson.
    Ms. Cottingham reported that she was suffering from fever, yellow mucous,
    congestion, headaches “off and [on] all week,” and a sore throat in the mornings.
    Exhibit 3 at 87-88 (appearing in the Joint Appendix at 35). When Dr. Simpson
    examined Ms. Cottingham, her nose and throat were “moderately congested and
    erythematous with some purulent postnasal discharge.” Id. at 87. Dr. Simpson
    diagnosed Ms. Cottingham with cough, fever, and acute sinusitis. He prescribed
    Amoxil and discussed symptomatic care. Id. at 88.
    In treating Ms. Cottingham for congestion, headaches, and a sore throat, Dr.
    Simpson did not discuss the HPV vaccine. Dr. Simpson did not suggest that the
    HPV vaccine caused any of these symptoms.
    January 31, 2013
    Ms. Cottingham returned to the pediatrician’s group and saw a different
    pediatrician, Elizabeth Crum. The complaints were that Ms. Cottingham suffered
    from runny nose and congestion for two days, a low-grade fever, a sore throat, and
    a headache “today.” Exhibit 3 at 78. Ms. Cottingham was not having a cough,
    shortness of breath, vomiting, or diarrhea. Id. Dr. Crum diagnosed Ms.
    Cottingham with rhinitis and acute viral pharyngitis. Id. at 79. Dr. Crum
    prescribed a course of Zyrtec and planned for symptomatic care. Id.; JA 61.
    Dr. Crum did not mention the HPV vaccination in the note for the
    appointment for Ms. Cottingham’s runny nose, congestion, fever, sore throat, and
    headache. Dr. Crum did not indicate that the HPV vaccination caused any of these
    symptoms.
    March 29, 2013
    Ms. Cottingham acutely experienced “fever and dizziness” the morning of
    this appointment. Exhibit 3 at 80. She stated that she fainted that morning. She
    also stated that she vomited once but had no diarrhea. Id. A urinalysis showed
    “very slight dehydration.” Id. The doctor who examined Ms. Cottingham, Richard
    Stone, diagnosed her with gastroenteritis and dehydration. He indicated that Ms.
    Cottingham was “at the early stage of an intestinal virus.” Id. at 81; JA 62.
    31
    Dr. Stone did not say anything about the HPV vaccination. Dr. Stone did
    not opine that the HPV vaccination contributed to Ms. Cottingham’s fainting or
    dehydration.
    May 23, 2013
    Ms. Cottingham informed Dr. Crum that she did not eat or drink anything
    when she woke up. She and a friend went to lay out at a pool. She felt hot. When
    she got up quickly to get something to eat, her vision became black and she felt
    lightheaded. Her friend witnessed her fall backwards and hit her head on the
    ground. The history noted that Ms. Cottingham had a similar episode in March
    2013. Ms. Cottingham “does not have a history of syncope with exercise.”
    Exhibit 3 at 70. Dr. Crum examined her and found a “[c]ompletely normal
    neurologic exam. . . . Five out of five motor strength in all extremities.” Id. at 71.
    Dr. Crum tested Ms. Cottingham’s orthostatic blood pressure and it remained
    stable. But, Ms. Cottingham’s “heart rate did increase from 80 to 100 when going
    from laying to standing.” Id. Dr. Crum determined that Ms. Cottingham was
    dehydrated and assessed her with fainting. Dr. Crum recommended that Ms.
    Cottingham increase her intake of fluids and eat breakfast. Dr. Crum commented,
    “if these events continue to occur I would consider further evaluation at that time,
    but do feel like [these] are likely two isolated events related to dehydration.” Id.;
    JA 63-64.
    At this appointment for another episode of fainting, Dr. Crum did not
    mention the HPV vaccination. Dr. Crum did not suggest that the HPV vaccination
    contributed to Ms. Cottingham’s episodes of fainting.
    July 25, 2013
    Upon a referral from Dr. Simpson, Ms. Cottingham saw a pediatric
    cardiologist, Waldemar Carlo. Ms. Cottingham told Dr. Carlo that she “had
    several episodes of dizziness and passing out” beginning in March. Exhibit 3 at
    111. With all the episodes, Ms. Cottingham “is standing or walking.” “She has
    not had any dizziness or syncope with physical activity.” Id. Dr. Carlo performed
    an electrocardiogram and echocardiogram. After testing, he determined that Ms.
    Cottingham’s heart was structurally normal and functioning normally. Dr. Carlo
    diagnosed her with vasovagal syncope and urged Ms. Cottingham to hydrate
    aggressively. Id. at 112. Dr. Carlo specifically declined to schedule a follow-up
    appointment but noted he would see her again if any new signs or symptoms
    developed. Id.; JA 36, 65.
    32
    Dr. Carlo did not discuss the HPV vaccination in his note for this
    appointment about dizziness and passing out. Dr. Carlo did not say that the HPV
    vaccination might have caused Ms. Cottingham’s problems.
    May 14, 2015
    Ms. Cottingham’s mother called the pediatrician’s office to report that her
    daughter had not had a menstrual cycle in six months. Ms. Cottingham’s mother
    also stated that “the Gardasil series may have something to do with the recent
    changes noted in [her daughter’s] menstrual cycle.” Exhibit 3 at 175. The nurse
    advised Ms. Cottingham’s mother that “a note will be made.” Id.; JA 60.
    The medical record does not contain any response from a physician. No
    record indicates that the pediatrician who received the note about the concern of
    Ms. Cottingham’s mother thought that the HPV vaccination may have caused
    changes in Ms. Cottingham’s menstrual cycle.
    Assessment
    The Secretary argues that Ms. Cottingham’s “medical records indicate that
    none of her treating physicians implicated the Gardasil vaccine as contributing to
    petitioner’s various complaints in any way.” Resp’t’s Br. at 7. This assessment
    appears accurate.
    Nevertheless, Ms. Cottingham relies upon passages from the Federal Circuit.
    See Pet’r’s Br. at 15. “Here, the record contains seven medical-examination
    reports detailing [Ms. Cottingham’s] medical history that address injuries she
    suffered. The Gardasil package insert links [her] injuries to adverse reactions
    associated with Gardasil’s administration.” Cottingham, 917 F.3d at 1346. Ms.
    Cottingham argues that these medical records “identify the exact conditions
    alleged to have been triggered by the vaccination at issue. They are the exact
    conditions reflected in the Gardasil product monograph, and they are the exact
    conditions documented in the cited medical literature as constituting post-Gardasil
    adverse events.” Pet’r’s Br. at 15.10
    10
    Ms. Cottingham’s assertion that the medical records document conditions “reflected in
    the Gardasil product monograph” is partially correct. As discussed below, the product insert
    does not discuss menstrual difficulties or dysautonomia.
    33
    Because the treating doctors did not link any condition in Ms. Cottingham to
    the HPV vaccination, the undersigned earlier stated that Ms. Cottingham produced
    “no evidence” supporting causation. Third Decision, 
    2018 WL 3432638
    , at *5;
    accord Resp’t’s Resp., filed Nov. 14, 2016, at 4; Resp’t’s Mot. for Rev., filed Jan.
    10, 2018, at 14. However, on appeal, the Federal Circuit held that the “no
    evidence” determination “rests on a clearly erroneous fact finding.” Cottingham,
    971 F.3d at 1345.
    In light of the Federal Circuit’s vacatur and remand, the undersigned has
    examined the seven records the Federal Circuit identified and looked to the totality
    of the circumstances in evaluating the weight of this evidence to the question of
    reasonable basis. These records show that at some time (in some instances many
    many months) after the vaccination, Ms. Cottingham experienced health problems.
    Thus, the sequence of events in which the vaccination preceded the onset of the
    headaches, fainting, and menstrual problems makes it logically possible for Ms.
    Cottingham to assert that the vaccination caused the headaches, fainting, and
    menstrual problems. By way of contrast, if Ms. Cottingham had experienced a
    pattern of headaches, fainting, and menstrual problems before the vaccination, then
    she could not logically allege that the vaccination caused those problems. Locane
    v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    685 F.3d 1375
    , 1380-81 (Fed. Cir. 2012).
    Under the guidance from the Federal Circuit, the undersigned recognizes that the
    medical records showing Ms. Cottingham suffered maladies after the vaccination
    constitute some evidence that is consistent with a finding of causation.
    In the context of determining whether petitioners are entitled to
    compensation in which special masters look for preponderant evidence, numerous
    cases have stated that a sequence of events in which the vaccination came before
    the onset of the injury does not establish the causal relationship. The Federal
    Circuit articulated this principle in one of the earliest cases from the Vaccine
    Program at the Federal Circuit. Grant v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    956 F.2d 1144
    , 1148 (Fed. Cir. 1992).
    While Grant resolved questions of entitlement, the same evidence of a
    sequence of events in which the vaccination preceded the onset of a disease or
    disorder was determined not to confer reasonable basis by itself. “Temporal
    proximity is necessary, but not sufficient.” Chuisano v. United States, 
    116 Fed. Cl. 34
    276, 287 (2014). 11 “[T]o establish a reasonable basis for the claim, petitioner was
    obliged to adduce medical evidence going to causation beyond temporal
    proximity.” Bekiaris v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    140 Fed. Cl. 108
    , 115
    (2018).
    B.      Affidavit
    In addition to providing medical records created contemporaneously with
    some events described in the medical records, Ms. Cottingham also submitted an
    affidavit she signed on October 28, 2015. Exhibit 1 at 3. In some ways, Ms.
    Cottingham’s testimony is consistent with information contained in the medical
    records. For example, Ms. Cottingham avers that she received a dose of the HPV
    vaccination on July 5, 2012. Id. ¶ 3.
    In other respects, Ms. Cottingham presents information that seems in tension
    with the medical records created contemporaneously. She, for example, asserts
    that in the weeks after November 1, 2012, she “began to experience episodes of
    near black-outs where my vision became temporarily impaired.” Id. ¶ 5. The first
    time Ms. Cottingham informed a doctor about blacking out was in conjunction
    with the second fainting episode on May 23, 2013. It seems unlikely Ms.
    Cottingham would nearly black-out repeatedly without telling a doctor. And when
    Ms. Cottingham did inform a doctor about blacking out, Ms. Cottingham did not
    tell the doctor that she was having these problems for months.
    11
    To some extent, the reasoning in Chuisano (that timing is necessary but not sufficient)
    is inconsistent with the reasoning in Harding v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    146 Fed. Cl. 381
     (2019). Ms. Harding was suffering from a disease known as Wegener’s granulomatosis
    (also known as granulomatosis polyangiitis) when she received doses of the HPV vaccine in
    October and November 2014. 146 Fed. Cl. at 387-88. Within approximately three weeks of the
    November 2014 dose, Ms. Harding’s condition was worse. Id. at 388. Ms. Harding alleged that
    the vaccinations significantly aggravated her pre-existing disease, but eventually filed a motion
    to dismiss her case voluntarily without filing an expert report.
    The special master found that Ms. Harding satisfied the reasonable basis standard
    because, in part, “‘the medical records document[ed] a flare of an autoimmune disease shortly
    after administration of a covered vaccine.’” Id. at 392 (quoting Harding v. Sec’y of Health &
    Human Servs., No. 17-1580V, 
    2019 WL 3215974
    , at *7 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. June 18, 2019)).
    The Court of Federal Claims ruled that the special master (1) considered the relevant evidence,
    (2) drew plausible inferences, and (3) stated at rational basis for the outcome and, accordingly,
    denied the Secretary’s motion for review. Id. at 404.
    35
    The evidentiary value of Ms. Cottingham’s affidavit remains unsettled.
    While Ms. Cottingham’s brief to the Federal Circuit emphasized her affidavit, see
    Cottingham, 917 F.3d at 1346, the Federal Circuit did not rely upon her affidavit
    when it stated that “[Ms. Cottingham’s] medical records paired with the Gardasil
    package insert thus constitute at minimal circumstantial, objective evidence
    supporting causation.” Id..
    C.     Package Insert
    The Federal Circuit remanded, in part, for the special master to evaluate the
    package insert in determining whether a reasonable basis supported the claims set
    forth in Ms. Cottingham’s petition. The Federal Circuit indicated that the package
    insert, as part of the record, should have been analyzed explicitly. Before turning
    to that evaluation, the undersigned provides context to illustrate how the Federal
    Circuit has clarified the types of evidence that merit consideration.
    1.    Citations to Product Insert in this Litigation
    As discussed in the procedural history, Ms. Cottingham did not submit the
    package insert during her case-in-chief regarding entitlement. She also did not file
    the product monograph to support her argument regarding reasonable basis,
    although Ms. Cottingham provided an internet link to it. Pet’r’s Mot. for
    Attorneys’ Fees and Costs, filed Oct. 26, 2016, at 4. The Secretary, however,
    provided a product monograph as exhibit A. Resp’t’s Resp., filed Nov. 14, 2016,
    at 5 n.1. As mentioned in the December 14, 2020 oral argument, exhibit A is the
    product monograph for Gardasil 9. Tr. 27. Ms. Cottingham did not receive this
    vaccine. She received a quadrivalent version. Exhibit 3 at 100. However, the
    “vaccines are manufactured similarly and contain the same antigens from HPV
    types 6, 11, 16, and 18,” exhibit A at 9, and the parties appear to have overlooked
    any difference between the two types of vaccines.
    Thereafter, the product monograph appears sporadically in briefing from Ms.
    Cottingham. Ms. Cottingham did not cite the product monograph in briefs
    associated with her first motion for review. See Pet’r’s Mot. for Rev., filed Apr.
    27, 2017; Pet’r’s Reply, filed June 2, 2017. In defending the Second Fees Decision
    against the Secretary’s motion for review, Ms. Cottingham relied upon the product
    insert to show autonomic dysfunction occurring outside of a 15-minute window.
    Pet’r’s Resp. to Mot. for Rev., filed Feb. 5, 2018, at 10. In challenging the Third
    Fees Decision, which had found no reasonable basis, Ms. Cottingham did not cite
    the product monograph. See Pet’r’s Mem. Supporting Pet’r’s 2d Mot. for Rev.,
    36
    filed July 19, 2018; Pet’r’s Reply, filed Aug. 27, 2018. In sum, across five briefs
    to the Court of Federal Claims filed in conjunction with three motions for review,
    Ms. Cottingham alluded to the product monograph once.
    At the Federal Circuit, Ms. Cottingham argued that the product monograph
    for the HPV vaccine “connect[s]” the HPV vaccine with “headache, nausea,
    syncope, abdominal pain and dizziness.” Br. of Pet’r-Appellant, filed May 14,
    2019, at 23. However, the Secretary did not respond to Ms. Cottingham’s assertion
    by discussing the product monograph. See Br. of Resp’t-Appellee, filed June 5,
    2019.
    In the Federal Circuit’s Opinion, the Federal Circuit ruled that the package
    insert merited discussion. The Federal Circuit declared that “The Gardasil package
    insert links [Ms. Cottingham] injuries to adverse reactions associated with
    Gardasil’s administration.” Cottingham, 917 F.3d at 1346.
    In sending the case back to the special master, the Federal Circuit corrected
    a legal error the undersigned made. Before Cottingham, the undersigned believed
    that the evidence that could support a finding of reasonable basis consisted of
    medical records or medical opinions. For a lengthy, if erroneous, discussion, see
    Silva v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., No. 10-101V, 
    2012 WL 2890452
     (Fed.
    Cl. Spec. Mstr. June 22, 2012) (discussing 42 U.S.C. § 300aa–11(c)), mot. for rev.
    denied, 
    108 Fed. Cl. 401
     (2012); see also Carter v. Sec’y of Health & Human
    Servs., No. 16-852V, 
    2018 WL 6322447
    , at *10 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. Oct. 16,
    2018) (finding petitioner did not satisfy the reasonable standard when the child’s
    treating doctors did not link vaccinations to developmental delay and petitioner did
    not file an expert report). Under this erroneous understanding, the undersigned did
    not discuss the package insert because the package insert constitutes neither a
    “medical record” nor a “medical opinion.”
    Relatedly, the undersigned also understood that special masters could
    disregard medical articles about which “there was not testimony offered by any
    expert as to the validity or import of such article.” Cedillo v. Sec’y of Health &
    Human Servs., 
    617 F.3d 1328
    , 1347 (Fed. Cir. 2010). Because neither Ms.
    Cottingham nor the Secretary had supplied an expert to explain the significance of
    the product monograph, it appeared that the product monograph was not a
    meaningful aspect of Ms. Cottingham’s argument that a reasonable basis supported
    the claims set forth in her petition. Cf. Moriarty v. Sec’y of Health & Human
    Servs., 
    844 F.3d 1322
    , 1330-31 (Fed. Cir. 2016) (requiring special master to
    address articles to which an expert referred in his report). However, the Federal
    37
    Circuit has corrected the undersigned’s misapprehension. Pursuant to its Opinion
    in Cottingham, the parties may introduce evidence, potentially favoring or
    potentially undermining a finding of reasonable basis for the claims set forth in the
    petition, that is not a medical record or a medical opinion.
    After the Federal Circuit’s correction, the undersigned directed the parties to
    discuss the product inserts. Order, issued Oct. 15, 2020, ¶ 7. The parties
    responded in their briefs. Given this history of how the product insert was used
    and not used in Ms. Cottingham’s case, the undersigned next discusses how
    product inserts are created.
    2.     Creation of Product Inserts12
    Before a manufacturer can sell a prescription drug, the Food and Drug
    Administration (“FDA”) must approve it. 
    21 U.S.C. § 355
    (a). The FDA
    determines whether the drug is both effective and safe. 21 U.S.C. § 360c(a)(1)(C).
    The process by which the FDA investigates the effectiveness and safety of a
    new drug begins when the manufacturer submits a “new drug application.” The
    manufacturer submits “adequate and well-controlled investigations, including
    clinical investigations, by experts qualified by scientific training and experience.”
    
    21 U.S.C. § 355
    (d). These investigations occur through a series of clinical trials
    (commonly known as “phase I,” “phase II,” and “phase III”), in which the number
    of human participants expands. 
    21 C.F.R. § 312.21
    . Some drugs also undergo a
    “phase IV” or post-marketing trial.
    The process of FDA approval includes a review of the drug’s labeling. The
    FDA defines the content and format of labeling. 
    21 C.F.R. § 201.56
    . The label, in
    turn, must present information about contraindications, warnings and precautions,
    and adverse reactions. In the context of labels for prescription drugs, “an adverse
    reaction” is “an undesired effect, reasonably associated with the use of the drug,
    that may occur as part of the pharmacological action of the drug or may be
    unpredictable in its occurrence.” 
    21 C.F.R. § 201.57
    (c)(7). The FDA
    distinguishes “adverse reactions” from “adverse events.” The requirement to
    12
    Information is primarily drawn from James M. Beck & Anthony Vale, Drug and
    Medical Device Product Liability Deskbook § 4.01 (ALM 2004). The undersigned also relies, in
    part, upon the “accumulated expertise” in learning about the FDA process for approving vaccines
    in many hearings.
    38
    report “adverse reactions” is limited to “only those adverse events for which there
    is some basis to believe there is a causal relationship between the drug and the
    occurrence of the adverse event.” Id.; see also 
    44 Fed. Reg. 37434
    , 37447 (June
    29, 1979) (defining “reasonable evidence of association” as evidence “on the basis
    of which experts qualified by scientific training and experience can reasonably
    conclude that the hazard is associated with the drug”). 13
    As part of the label’s section on “adverse reactions,” the manufacturer must
    distinguish between adverse reactions observed in clinical trials and adverse
    reactions gained in the post-marketing experience. 
    21 C.F.R. § 201.57
    (c)(7)(ii).
    After the FDA approves a prescription drug or biological product, a licensed
    manufacturer is required to report to the FDA any “adverse experience
    information.” 
    21 C.F.R. § 600.80
    (c). The term “adverse experience” means “Any
    adverse event associated with the use of a biological product in humans, whether
    or not considered product related, including the following: An adverse event
    occurring in the course of the use of a biological product in professional practice.”
    
    21 C.F.R. § 600.80
    (a).
    While manufacturers must report adverse experiences associated with its
    product to the FDA, “[a] report or information submitted by a licensed
    manufacturer . . . does not necessarily reflect a conclusion by the licensed
    manufacturer or FDA that the report or information constitutes an admission that
    the biological product caused or contributed to an adverse effect.” 
    21 C.F.R. § 600.80
    (l).
    Manufacturers, however, are not the only entities that may report adverse
    events. Healthcare professionals and consumers may also report adverse events to
    the FDA. When healthcare professionals and consumers report adverse events to a
    manufacturer, the manufacturer is required to submit the report to the FDA. 
    21 C.F.R. § 600.80
    (c)(1)(iii).
    13
    The FDA’s standard is not the same as the standard used in civil litigation because the
    FDA attempts to prevent the public from exposure to harmful substances. Glastetter v. Novartis
    Pharm. Corp., 
    252 F.3d 986
    , 991 (8th Cir. 2001) (applying Missouri law).
    39
    3.     Precedent regarding Product Inserts in the Vaccine Program
    In different settings, judicial officers have discussed the value of FDA-
    required manufacturer’s inserts and associated regulations. 14 Special masters have
    considered whether product inserts can support an expert’s opinions that a vaccine
    can cause a condition.
    Consequently, the cases discussed below do not match the exact
    circumstances of Ms. Cottingham’s case in at least two respects. Here, the only
    evidence regarding the product insert is the product insert. There are no experts.
    No one has submitted testimony about the product inserts. Second, Ms.
    Cottingham is attempting to establish the reasonable basis for the claim set forth in
    her petition. The evidentiary standard for reasonable basis is, as set forth above,
    lower than the preponderance of the evidence standard. Nevertheless, other
    judicial officials’ considerations in evaluating the evidentiary value of product
    inserts are informative here to the extent that cases look at the post-marketing
    adverse events portion of product inserts.
    The Secretary cites multiple cases supporting the conclusion that statements
    in package inserts do not constitute reliable evidence of causation and should not
    be considered admissions on the part of the manufacturers that a given product can
    or does cause a given injury. However, all but one of the cases cited by respondent
    ultimately rely on the statement in Werderitsh v. Secretary of Health & Human
    Services that “federal regulations specifically preclude the contents of drug product
    labels . . . from serving as admissions regarding causation.” No. 99-319V, 
    2005 WL 3320041
    , at *8 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. Nov. 10, 2005).
    Werderitsh arose in a much different context. In that case, the petitioner
    sought to compel the production of VAERS files. Id. at *1. The petitioner
    contended, among other points, that the sought VAERS files underlie the entries in
    the Physician’s Desk Reference. Id. at *8. (The Physician’s Desk Reference, in
    turn, reproduces the FDA-approved product inserts. Id. at *8 n.22.) The petitioner
    apparently reasoned that the VAERS reports would shore up the “admissions” the
    government allegedly made in adopting the product insert. The special master
    14
    The Federal Circuit touched upon these regulations in the context of safe harbor
    provisions. See Momenta Pharms., Inc. v. Amphastar Pharms., Inc., 
    686 F.3d 1348
    , 1358 (Fed.
    Cir. 2012).
    40
    rejected this argument because any information derived from VAERS reports
    would not constitute an admission from the government.
    Although not expressly explained in Werderitsh, VAERS reports constitute a
    form of post-marketing experience. As a type of post-marketing information, the
    VAERS reports and any information communicated in the product insert based
    upon the VAERS reports would not constitute an admission that the vaccine
    caused an injury described in a VAERS report. 
    21 C.F.R. § 600.80
    . Werderitsh
    did consider statements that appear in the product insert as a result of clinical trials.
    The Secretary relies heavily on the statement in Sullivan v. Secretary of
    Health & Human Services that “[s]tatements contained in vaccine package inserts
    do not constitute reliable proof of causation, and cannot be deemed admissions that
    the vaccine in question has the capacity to harm a particular petitioner in a specific
    manner.” No. 10-398V, 
    2015 WL 1404957
    , at *20 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. Feb. 13,
    2015). This conclusion was derived directly from the preceding statement in
    Werderitsh but applied generally to “package inserts.” The other cases cite to
    Sullivan and/or Werderitsh for this proposition. While some cases apply it to the
    general term “package inserts,” encompassing clinical trial information and post-
    marketing reported events, see Carter v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., No. 16-
    852V, 
    2018 WL 6322447
    , at *8 n.10 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. Oct. 16, 2018);
    Rolshoven v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., No. 14-439V, 
    2018 WL 1124737
    ,
    at *20 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. Jan. 11, 2018); Morris v. Sec’y of Health & Human
    Servs., No. 13-601V, 
    2017 WL 2461226
    , at *11 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. May 9,
    2017), some apply the statement to post-marketing adverse events only, see
    Mondello v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., No 15-972V, 
    2018 WL 947449
    , at
    *11 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. Jan. 24, 2018) (applying the statement in a context
    involving reported adverse events); Bender v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs.,
    No. 11-693V, 
    2018 WL 3679637
    , at *1 (Fed. Cl. July 2, 2018), mot. for rev.
    denied, 
    141 Fed. Cl. 262
     (2019) (applying the statement in the context of
    determining reliability of VAERS reports). None of these cases apply this
    statement of unreliability explicitly to clinical trials information contained in the
    product insert.
    A nuanced analysis of the product insert would distinguish between, on the
    one hand, information provided in the sections for “contraindications,” “warnings
    and precautions,” and “adverse reactions” from clinical trials and, on the other
    hand, information provided in the post-marketing experience. The three former
    sections (sections 4, 5, and 6.1) comprise a notice from the vaccine manufacturer
    41
    that some scientific basis supports a conclusion that the vaccine caused the listed
    problem. 
    21 C.F.R. § 201.57
    (c)(7). In contrast, the manufacturer’s presentation of
    problems in the section on post-marketing experience (section 6.2) does not
    necessarily reflect a scientific basis.
    4.    Product Insert for HPV Vaccine
    In this case, the more meaningful sections of the product insert provide a
    sliver of support for Ms. Cottingham’s argument that the HPV vaccination harmed
    her. The product manufacturer warns that “Because vaccinees may develop
    syncope, sometimes resulting in falling with injury, observation for 15 minutes
    after administration is recommended.” Exhibit A at 3 (section 5.1). In clinical
    trials, some women reported having headaches within 15 days after the
    vaccination. Id. at 6.
    The less valuable section of the product insert, the report on post-marketing
    experience, lists more than 20 conditions spread across nine categories. The
    category “nervous system disorders” includes “headache” and “syncope (including
    syncope associated with tonic-clonic movements and other seizure-like activity).”
    Exhibit A at 9-10.
    The manufacturer’s insert does not contain any information linking the HPV
    vaccine to menstrual difficulties. See Tr. 31. It also does not list the HPV vaccine
    as causing dysautonomia or autonomic dysfunction by name. See Tr. 32.
    D.     Medical Articles
    “Medical articles,” in this context differ from the product insert. As
    explained above, the Secretary filed the product insert as exhibit A, and the product
    insert, accordingly, was in the record before the Federal Circuit. But, Ms.
    Cottingham only cited various articles and did not file them into the record before
    the appeal to the Federal Circuit. Thus, the Federal Circuit did not explicitly direct
    a consideration of these articles in its Order.
    After the remand, Ms. Cottingham filed five articles, discussed below. The
    Secretary acquiesced to their inclusion by not filing a motion to strike. See
    Resp’t’s Br. at 12. Accordingly, the parties were directed to address the articles.
    Order, issued Oct. 15, 2020, ¶¶ 8-9.
    Ms. Cottingham refers to her June 2, 2017 reply in support of her first
    motion for review, which is CM/ECF entry 53. Pet’r’s Br. at 9. In that reply, Ms.
    42
    Cottingham argued that the Martinez-Lavin, Kinoshita, and Brinth articles
    connected the human papillomavirus vaccine to autonomic dysfunction. She
    maintains that position in her current brief, asserting that “Autonomic dysfunction
    (dysautonomia) has been connected to vaccination, particularly Gardasil.” Pet’r’s
    Br. at 9. In the December 14, 2020 oral argument, Ms. Cottingham explained that
    she offered the articles for the limited purpose of showing that her claim is “not
    novel.” Tr. 37. She has presented, in her words, “a bunch of case reports” that
    resemble her situation. Id. at 38. Ms. Cottingham maintains that the similarities
    between the facts of her case and the reports in articles she cited bolsters her
    contention that a reasonable basis supports the claims set forth in her petition.
    The Secretary makes multiple arguments against the value of the articles.
    Resp’t’s Br. at 12-13. One argument is that four articles discuss conditions with
    which Ms. Cottingham was not diagnosed. Id. at 13. The Secretary maintained
    that “There is no evidence in the medical records of [Ms. Cottingham] being
    diagnosed with autonomic dysfunction.” Id. at 7. Another general argument is
    that the articles need to be tied to the facts of Ms. Cottingham’s case. Tr. 38-39.
    Review of Articles
    To address the value of the five medical articles Ms. Cottingham submitted,
    each is reviewed below. The sequence begins with the earliest published article.
    S. Blitshteyn reported “six previously healthy young women [who]
    developed symptoms of POTS [postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome] within
    6 days to 2 months after immunization with Gardasil vaccine.” S. Blitshteyn,
    Postural tachycardia syndrome following human papillomavirus vaccination, 21
    Euro. J. Neuro. 135 (2014), filed as exhibit 14, at 138. In addition to being
    diagnosed with POTS, three of the patients also had neurocardiogenic syncope. Id.
    Dr. Blitshteyn concluded “Further studies are necessary to investigate whether
    there is a causal relationship.” Id. at 139.15
    15
    Dr. Blitshteyn has participated in Vaccine Program proceedings as an expert witness.
    See McCulloch v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., No. 09-293V, 
    2015 WL 3650610
     (Fed. Cl.
    Spec. Mstr. May 22, 2015) (finding petitioner was entitled to compensation); Turkupolis v. Sec’y
    of Health & Human Servs., No. 10-351V, 
    2014 WL 2872215
    , at *21 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. May
    30, 2014) (denying compensation and stating “Dr. Blitshteyn proffers her conclusion and then
    43
    The Blitshteyn article describes patients as suffering headaches and
    neurocardiogenic syncope after HPV vaccination. According to Ms. Cottingham,
    it offers some support for the reasonable basis of her claim that the HPV
    vaccination caused her to suffer headaches and fainting. Tr. 42. However, with
    regard to headaches and fainting, the subjects in the Blitshteyn article experienced
    those problems much closer in time to the vaccination than Ms. Cottingham. See
    exhibit 14 at 136 (table 1 listing onset of various problems between two weeks and
    two months after the vaccination). The Blitshteyn article does not help with Ms.
    Cottingham’s claim for menstrual problems and dysautonomia. Tr. 46.
    Kinoshita and colleagues observed that over the course of approximately
    nine months, they treated 40 girls, who complained that they had symptoms after
    receiving a vaccination against human papillomavirus. (About one-quarter of this
    population received the same brand, Gardasil, as Ms. Cottingham received.) The
    average age of this population was 13.7 years. Tomomi Kinoshita et al.,
    Peripheral Sympathetic Nerve Dysfunction in Adolescent Japanese Girls
    Following Immunization with the Human Papillomavirus Vaccine, 53 Internal
    Medicine 2185 (2004), filed as exhibit 13, at 2.
    These patients reported various symptoms. The most common symptom
    was headaches, followed by general fatigue. Orthostatic fainting and disturbed
    menstruation were also reported. 
    Id.
     “The average incubation period after the first
    dose of vaccine was 5.47±5.00 months.” 
    Id.
     Kinoshita and colleagues diagnosed
    most of the young girls as suffering from chronic regional pain syndrome and/or
    orthostatic problems. Id. at 10; see also id. at 13 (table 5).
    With respect to etiology, “[b]ased on the temporal relationship between
    immunization and the development of symptoms, [the authors] cannot deny the
    possibility that immunization with HPV vaccines may secondarily induce
    sympathetically mediated disorders, including CRPS-I [chronic regional pain
    syndrome], OH [orthostatic hypotension] and POTS [postural tachycardia
    syndrome].” Id. at 15. They concluded: “Studies with large-scale investigations
    and experimental approaches are needed to further answer these questions.” Id.
    speculates it must be because it happens to other people with diseases that petitioner does not
    have. Speculation is unacceptable as credible proof.”).
    44
    Ms. Cottingham downplayed the diagnoses given to the patients in the
    Kinoshita article, calling them “labels.” Tr. 49. Ms. Cottingham viewed the
    symptoms that Kinoshita and colleagues reported as more germane to her
    argument. Accordingly, Ms. Cottingham pointed out that more than half the
    population in the Kinoshita review reported headaches. Tr. 48. Ms. Cottingham
    also emphasized that the average temporal interval “5.47 months” was “peg[ged]”
    to her case. Tr. 52, 85.
    Blitshteyn and Kinoshita were included in the introductory section of
    Brinth. Louise S. Brinth et al., Orthostatic intolerance and postural tachycardia
    syndrome as suspected adverse effects of vaccination against human
    papillomavirus, 33 Vaccine 2602 (2015), filed as exhibit 12, at 2602. The Brinth
    team evaluated 35 patients who had been referred to their syncope unit for further
    evaluation for “a suspected adverse event following vaccination with the
    quadrivalent HPV vaccine.” Id. The 35 females had an average age of 23.3 years.
    “The mean delay between vaccination and onset of symptoms was 9.3 days (range:
    0–30).” Id. “Mean time between onset of symptoms and examination was 1.9
    years (range: 0–5).” Id. After testing, the researchers determined that 60 percent
    of the group suffered from POTS. Id. at 2604. The authors proposed their group
    might “possibly constitut[e] a post vaccination syndrome on an autoimmune basis
    in a specific group of young women.” Id.
    Brinth and colleagues acknowledged three limitations to their study. The
    first was a “lack of a control group.” Id. The second was “the long and variable
    delay between the onset of symptoms and orthostatic testing.” Id. The third was
    the use of a ten-minute tilt-table test might miss other forms of chronic orthostatic
    intolerance. The authors concluded that: “Our findings do not confirm or dismiss a
    causal link to the HPV-vaccine—but suggest that further research is urgently
    warranted.” Id.
    Ms. Cottingham argued that like the Kinoshita article, the Brinth article
    supported Ms. Cottingham’s presentation of symptoms. Tr. 51. However, Ms.
    Cottingham acknowledged that average latency between vaccination and the onset
    of symptoms in Brinth (9.3 days) was much different from the average reported in
    Kinoshita and much different from her experience. Tr. 52.
    The next article, Martinez-Lavin, starts with observations from Blitshteyn,
    Kinoshita, and Brinth, as well as others. The Martinez-Lavin article proposed “as
    a hypothesis that small fiber neuropathy may also explain the pain and autonomic
    dysfunction seen in post HPV vaccination syndrome.” Manuel Martinez-Lavin,
    45
    Hypothesis: Human papillomavirus vaccination syndrome—small fiber neuropathy
    and dysautonomia could be its underlying pathogenesis, 34 Clin. Rheumatol. 1165
    (2015), filed as exhibit 11, at 3. In oral argument, Ms. Cottingham recognized that
    she was not diagnosed as suffering from small fiber neuropathy. Tr. 54. This
    concession reduces the value of the Martinez-Lavin article.
    The most recently published article is by Kazuki Ozawa and colleagues.
    Kazuki Ozawa et al., Suspected Adverse Effects After Human Papillomavirus
    Vaccination: A Temporal Relationship Between Vaccine Administration and the
    Appearance of Symptoms in Japan, 40 Drug Saf. 1219 (2017), filed as exhibit 15.
    These researchers built upon their earlier report, Kinoshita, which is reference 10
    in Ozawa. The purpose of Ozawa’s work was “to clarify the temporal relationship
    between human papillomavirus vaccination and the appearance of post-vaccination
    symptoms.” Id. at 1. For this study, Ozawa and group created a set of diagnostic
    criteria. However, the validity and reliability of the newly created diagnostic
    criteria “have not been established.” Id.
    In oral argument, when asked whether Ozawa constituted “reliable”
    evidence pursuant to Vaccine Rule 8(b)(1), Ms. Cottingham maintained that
    Ozawa was reliable “for the purpose for which this article is being offered.” Tr.
    55. The purpose of the article, in turn, is that Ozawa “details the syndrome of
    symptoms that you may see following” the HPV vaccine. Tr. 56. The Secretary
    asserted that the Ozawa article cannot be relied upon. Tr. 60.
    Using their diagnostic criteria, Ozawa and colleagues diagnosed 30 patients
    with “definite vaccine-related symptoms” and another 42 patients with “probable”
    vaccine-related symptoms. Exhibit 15 at 1. This group of 72 patients came from a
    starting group of 163 patients. Id. The average age at vaccination for these 72
    patients was 13.6 years. “The time to onset after the first vaccine dose ranged from
    1 to 1532 days (average 319.7 ± 349.3 days).” Id.
    The researchers asked the participants to answer questionnaires, obtained
    medical records from other facilities when available, and conducted tests on the
    participants. Id. at 3. “Symptoms or signs frequently observed in these 72 girls
    were prolonged general fatigue, chronic headache, widespread pain, limb shaking,
    dysautonomic symptoms, motor dysfunction, abnormal sensation, sleep
    disturbance, learning impairment, and menstrual abnormality.” Id. at 5.
    “Dysautonomic symptoms included frequent squatting or syncope during their
    daily activities.” Id.
    46
    The Ozawa researchers recognized some limitations in their study. These
    included not having a control group and having a relatively small number of
    subjects, all of whom were referred to the authors. Id. at 9. The authors stated that
    “HPV vaccination is temporally related to the development of these symptoms in
    Japanese adolescent girls. Further large-scale studies are required to clarify the
    pathophysiology of these symptoms.” Id. at 9.
    Ms. Cottingham offered the Ozawa article for the limited purpose of
    showing that her report of symptoms after receiving the HPV vaccine was typical.
    Tr. 55-56. Ms. Cottingham explicitly disclaimed any reliance on Ozawa’s report
    of temporality, which extended from 1 to 1532 days. Tr. 62. As the Secretary
    pointed out, 1532 days is more than 4 years after vaccination. Tr. 60. Ms.
    Cottingham’s attorney acknowledged that he would not endorse a claim that the
    HPV vaccination caused an injury appearing “3 years” after vaccination. Tr. 53.
    However, the attorney was not asked to reconcile this position with the information
    in the Ozawa article.
    Cases Evaluating these Articles
    The “accumulated expertise” on which special masters may rely in deciding
    cases, see Whitecotton v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    81 F.3d 1099
    , 1104
    (Fed. Cir. 1996), includes an awareness of how issues have been resolved
    previously. These previous dispositions are not binding. Boatmon v. Sec’y of
    Health & Human Servs., 
    941 F.3d 1351
    , 1358-59 (Fed. Cir. 2019). But the non-
    binding value of those informed considerations should not negate their value,
    especially when the parties have not presented any testimony from an expert about
    the articles.
    In general, special masters have found this set of articles not sufficiently
    persuasive to assist any petitioners in meeting their burden to show, by a
    preponderance of the evidence, the HPV vaccine can cause different injuries. A
    thorough analysis appears in Balasco v. Secretary of Health & Human Services,
    No. 17-215V, 
    2020 WL 1240917
     (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. Feb. 14, 2020).
    Represented by Mr. Downing, Julia Balasco alleged that the HPV vaccine caused
    her to suffer “autonomic dysfunction, postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome
    (POTS), fibromyalgia, and orthostatic intolerance (OI).” Id. at *1. To advance her
    claim, Ms. Balasco submitted reports from Yehuda Shoenfeld and Mitchell Miglis.
    Id. at *2. (Dr. Shoenfeld and Dr. Miglis have testified for petitioners in other cases
    as well.) The Secretary opposed the claim and offered contrary reports.
    47
    After considering the five articles discussed above as well as additional
    evidence, the special master did not find “preponderant evidence of any HPV
    Syndrome or that the above-discussed literature, considered individually or as a
    whole, provides a basis for [Ms. Balasco] to assert a claim for an adverse reaction
    to her HPV vaccine.” Id. at *32. In addition, the special master rejected Ms.
    Balasco’s argument that she satisfied the Ozawa criteria. Id. at *29.
    In Johnson v. Secretary of Health & Human Services, No. 14-254V, 
    2018 WL 2051760
     (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. Mar. 23, 2018), the special master reached a
    similar conclusion. In Johnson, the special master heard testimony from Dr.
    Shoenfeld and Kenneth Mack, a doctor the Secretary had retained, regarding Ms.
    Johnson’s claim that she suffered a variety of injuries, including POTS. In
    reference to the Blitshteyn, Brinth, Kinoshita, and Ozawa articles, the special
    master found that “Dr. Mack convincingly explained in particular why many of the
    items of literature that relied on such case study data were untrustworthy—the
    studied subjects voluntarily had sought treatment for their orthostatic symptoms,
    making the studied group too self-selected to draw conclusions from correlations
    observed with respect to that population.” Id. at *24.
    Other cases have refrained from crediting the articles Ms. Cottingham
    advances, though with less robust analyses. See Yalacki v. Sec’y of Health &
    Human Servs., No. 14-278V, 
    2019 WL 1061429
    , at *14 n.21 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr.
    Jan. 31, 2019) (mentioning Dr. Shoenfeld’s reliance on the Martinez-Lavin article
    despite the petitioner’s lack of small fiber neuropathy); Combs v. Sec’y of Health
    & Human Servs., No. 14-878V, 
    2018 WL 1581672
    , at *18 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr.
    Feb. 15, 2018) (finding the Kinoshita article not persuasive because it involved “a
    very limited number of case studies”). The undersigned identified only one case in
    which this set of articles was filed and the petitioner was found entitled to
    compensation. But, in that case, the petitioner’s expert disclaimed any reliance on
    an autonomic injury. See B.A. v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., No. 11-51V,
    
    2018 WL 6985218
    , at *27-29 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. Dec. 6, 2018) (finding
    petitioner established that the HPV vaccination caused her headaches via
    molecular mimicry).
    Balasco and Johnson point out that essentially, the Blitshteyn, Brinth,
    Kinoshita, and Ozawa articles present a series of case reports. Although the
    articles, particularly the Ozawa article, discuss findings on more than an isolated
    case, the articles all suffer from a lack of control group. Case reports provide little,
    if any, value to an analysis of causation. See Porter v. Sec’y of Health & Human
    48
    Servs., No. 99-639V, 
    2008 WL 4483740
    , at *13 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. Oct. 2,
    2008), set aside on other grounds by Rotoli v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    89 Fed. Cl. 71
     (2009), reinstated, 
    663 F.3d 1242
    , 1254 (Fed. Cir. 2012) (stating the
    “special master’s decision reveals a thorough and careful evaluation of all of the
    evidence, including . . . reports and medical literature”); W.C. v. Sec’y of Health &
    Human Servs., No. 07-456V, 
    2011 WL 4537887
    , at *13 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. Feb.
    22, 2011) (“[C]ase reports are generally weak evidence of causation because [they]
    cannot distinguish a temporal relationship from causal relationship.”), mot. for rev.
    denied, 
    100 Fed. Cl. 440
     (2011), aff’d, 
    704 F.3d 1352
     (Fed. Cir. 2013). Given the
    methodological limitations that are contained within the text of the articles, the
    undersigned cannot give these articles more than a trifle of weight.
    But, even the very small value of these articles diminishes in the context of
    Ms. Cottingham’s claim. As the Secretary argues, see Resp’t’s Br. at 12-13, Ms.
    Cottingham does not suffer from the conditions primarily discussed in those
    articles. Blitshteyn investigated six young women who suffered from POTS.
    Exhibit 14 at 138. Orthostatic problems and chronic regional pain syndrome were
    the primary diagnoses in Kinoshita. Exhibit 13 at 10. In Brinth, 60 percent of the
    subjects suffered from POTS. Exhibit 12 at 2604. Martinez-Lavin proposed that
    autonomic dysfunction was explained by small fiber neuropathy. Exhibit 11 at 3.
    However, Ms. Cottingham has not presented any evidence that she suffers from
    POTS, chronic regional pain syndrome, orthostatic problems, or small fiber
    neuropathy. Ms. Cottingham has also not presented any evidence (as opposed to
    attorney argument) for why, for example, an article about chronic regional pain
    syndrome informs an analysis of the reasonable basis for a claim that a vaccination
    caused her to suffer, for example, syncope.16
    V.     Assessment of Whether Reasonable Basis Supports the Claims Set forth
    in the Petition
    Having evaluated the evidence Ms. Cottingham and the Secretary submitted,
    the undersigned next turns to determining whether, based on the totality of the
    circumstances, Ms. Cottingham supported the claims set forth in her petition. Ms.
    Cottingham’s October 30, 2015 petition asserted that the HPV vaccination caused
    16
    Conceivably, an expert might be able to connect the dots. However, speculating about
    what could have happened would violate the requirement in Simmons to evaluate objective
    evidence.
    49
    her four different problems. The easiest to evaluate is the claim that the HPV
    vaccination caused Ms. Cottingham to suffer dysautonomia. Thus, that condition
    is evaluated first in section A below. The remaining three conditions are evaluated
    on the basis by which Ms. Cottingham began to experience the condition, starting
    with the earliest. The claim that the HPV vaccination caused Ms. Cottingham to
    have headaches is in section B below. The claim regarding fainting is in section C
    below. The claim regarding menstrual difficulties is in section D below.
    A.     Dysautonomia
    The petition asserts “[Ms. Cottingham]’s mom decided that she did not want
    [her] to have any further Gardasil shots due to a potential connection with
    autonomic dysfunction, and declined them at [her] July 7, 2013 annual physical.”
    Pet. ¶ 8. The citation for this assertion is Ms. Cottingham’s affidavit, exhibit 1.
    Ms. Cottingham’s annual physical was actually July 10, 2013. Exhibit 3 at
    96-98. During this appointment, Dr. Simpson (a pediatrician) discussed the two
    episodes of fainting and recommended that she eat breakfast and drink regularly.
    He also referred Ms. Cottingham to a pediatric cardiologist. The records from this
    appointment do not refer to Ms. Cottingham as possibly suffering from autonomic
    dysfunction. 
    Id.
     Likewise, Ms. Cottingham’s affidavit to which the petition refers
    does not use the term “autonomic dysfunction,” although the affidavit otherwise
    discusses a July 7, 2013 physical examination. See exhibit 1 ¶ 14.
    The October 15, 2020 order directed Ms. Cottingham to specify the claims
    for which the petition was brought and to identify the evidence showing that Ms.
    Cottingham suffered from those conditions. Order, issued Oct. 15, 2020, ¶¶ 5-6.
    In response, Ms. Cottingham stated that the “‘claim for which the petition was
    brought’ includes autonomic dysfunction manifesting as headaches,
    lightheadedness described as near black-outs, syncope, and menstrual problems.”
    Pet’r’s Br. at 6. She continued: “These can constitute separate conditions or well-
    documented symptoms of her overarching condition of autonomic dysfunction.”
    
    Id.
     In oral argument, Ms. Cottingham’s attorney, Mr. Downing, amplified his
    perspective about Ms. Cottingham’s diagnosis. Mr. Downing stated: “I do think
    that she has dysautonomia.” Tr. 47. The Ozawa article attempts “to define the
    syndrome by a collection of symptom sets in the body systems that appear to be
    disconnected, but they’re not.” Tr. 56; accord Tr. 138.
    In contrast, the Secretary responded: “There is no evidence in the medical
    records of petitioner being diagnosed with autonomic dysfunction.” Resp’t’s Br. at
    50
    7. The Secretary rejected Mr. Downing’s attempt to diagnose Ms. Cottingham as
    suffering from dysautonomia or a syndrome because doctors who treated her are
    “the more reliable source for what is going on with Ms. Cottingham.” Tr. 77.
    Establishing that the vaccinee suffers from the condition a vaccination
    allegedly caused is a fundamental aspect of a claim. Broekelschen v. Sec’y of
    Health & Human Servs., 
    618 F.3d 1339
    , 1346 (Fed. Cir. 2010).
    Here, even under a standard of proof that is less than the preponderance of
    the evidence standard, Ms. Cottingham has not presented a reasonable basis for the
    petition’s claim that she suffered “autonomic dysfunction.” 17 The crucial point is
    that Ms. Cottingham presented no evidence in which a doctor diagnosed her as
    suffering from “autonomic dysfunction.” Even the petition states that Ms.
    Cottingham’s mother was concerned about “a potential connection with autonomic
    dysfunction.” Pet. ¶ 8. The petition does not elaborate on the basis for Ms.
    Cottingham’s mother’s concern.
    The belief of Ms. Cottingham’s mother, regardless of its foundation, seems
    to be a subjective quality that falls into the category of “good faith.” By way of
    contrast, Ms. Cottingham’s mother’s worry about “autonomic dysfunction” is not a
    form of “objective evidence” on which decisions about reasonable basis turn. Ms.
    Cottingham’s attorney points to headaches in the context of a diagnosed viral
    infection approximately four months after vaccination, two episodes of fainting
    reported in the medical records in the context of being dehydrated and not eating
    approximately eight and ten months after vaccination, and menstrual difficulties
    beginning five months after the second vaccination, as evidence of a sequence of
    symptoms amounting to autonomic dysfunction. However, the perception of Ms.
    Cottingham’s attorney that the series of symptoms Ms. Cottingham experienced
    actually constitute a syndrome is also not grounded in sufficient objective evidence
    to have a reasonable basis. Cf. Rothschild Connected Devices Innovations, LLC v.
    Guardian Prot. Servs., Inc., 
    858 F.3d 1383
    , 1389 (Fed. Cir. 2017) (stating, in the
    17
    In the context of determining whether a petitioner was entitled to compensation, a
    special master evaluated the articles on which Ms. Cottingham is relying and found a lack of
    persuasive evidence “establishing ‘HPV syndrome’ as a cognizable injury.” Balasco v. Sec’y of
    Health & Human Servs., No. 17-215V, 
    2020 WL 1240917
    , at *30 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. Feb. 14,
    2020). Balasco does not control the outcome of Ms. Cottingham’s case because it was a decision
    about entitlement, not reasonable basis and because Ms. Cottingham’s petition does not set forth
    the claim that she suffered from “HPV syndrome.”
    51
    context of finding that a district court abused its discretion in not finding a patent
    case exceptional, “[t]he conclusory and unsupported statements from Rothschild’s
    counsel and founder that claim 1 of the ‘090 patent is valid have no evidentiary
    value”). The critical factor is that a person with a medical degree, who has the
    training and experience to diagnose medical problems, did not diagnose Ms.
    Cottingham with autonomic dysfunction. Ms. Cottingham has not cited, and
    independent research has not located, any Vaccine Program case in which a non-
    medically trained petitioner’s opinion regarding diagnosis has been credited.
    Without any evidence from a person qualified to diagnose diseases, Ms.
    Cottingham’s assertion that she suffered autonomic dysfunction amounts to
    “unsupported speculation.” See Perreria, 
    33 F.3d at 1377
    .
    B.     Headaches
    The petition alleges that the HPV vaccine caused Ms. Cottingham to
    experience headaches. Pet. ¶ 4. According to the petition, on November 1, 2012,
    Ms. Cottingham “began to have headaches unlike anything she experienced
    before.” 
    Id.
     November 1, 2012 is approximately four months after Ms.
    Cottingham received the HPV vaccination on July 5, 2012. Exhibit 3 at 99-100
    (vaccination record).
    The petition’s assertion that Ms. Cottingham’s problems began on
    November 1, 2012, is supported by her affidavit. Exhibit 1. However, the first
    medical records created after the vaccination indicate that Ms. Cottingham’s
    pediatrician was informed, on November 30, 2012, that Ms. Cottingham had
    headaches “off and [on] all week.” Exhibit 3 at 87. Whether Ms. Cottingham’s
    headaches began around November 23, 2012, as suggested in the pediatrician’s
    November 30, 2012 medical record or Ms. Cottingham’s headaches began about
    three weeks earlier as suggested in her affidavit does not affect the outcome. Even
    under Ms. Cottingham’s version of events, her headaches began approximately
    four months after the vaccination.
    The latency between the vaccination and the onset of headaches influences
    the outcome to a great degree. Through the package insert, Ms. Cottingham has
    presented some evidence that the HPV vaccination can cause headaches. But, as
    the Secretary argues, see Resp’t’s Br. at 10, the package insert indicates that the
    clinical trials link the vaccination to headaches that occur within 15 days of the
    vaccination. Specifically, the manufacturer reported that among a population of
    approximately 7,000 women aged 16-26 years old who received the Gardasil
    vaccine, 13.7 percent reported headaches within 1 to 15 days. Exhibit A at 6 (table
    52
    2).18 Thus, within the “adverse reports” section, the manufacturer included, among
    other problems, “headaches.” Id. at 1.19 Thus, the evidence supports a finding at
    the lower-than-preponderance standard, that Ms. Cottingham possessed a
    reasonable basis for alleging that the HPV vaccine can cause headaches.
    After a petitioner demonstrates that some evidence supports a finding that
    there is a reasonable basis for alleging that the vaccine can cause an injury, the
    next step is to consider whether the injury arose in an “appropriate” time. The
    package insert indicates 1 to 15 days is an appropriate time. Exhibit A at 6 (table
    2).
    While Ms. Cottingham, as discussed above, argues that an evaluation of the
    timing is not appropriate in the context of determining whether reasonable basis
    supports the claims set forth in the petition, see Pet’r’s Br. at 10, Ms. Cottingham
    also argues that the appropriate onset extends to 5.47 months. Id. at 12 n.1 (citing
    exhibit 13 (Kinoshita) at 2); see also Tr. 84-85.
    Ms. Cottingham’s reliance on the Kinoshita article seems unclear. At one
    point, Ms. Cottingham maintained that the set of medical articles were being
    offered for the limited purpose of showing that other people have reported
    experiencing symptoms similar to the symptoms that Ms. Cottingham experienced
    after the HPV vaccine. Tr. 48. Yet, Ms. Cottingham also offered the Kinoshita
    article to serve as a reliable indicator for the appropriate interval between
    vaccination and onset. Tr. 52.
    Ms. Cottingham, as the proponent of the evidence and as the party with the
    burden of proof regarding reasonable basis, McKellar v. Sec’y of Health & Human
    Servs., 
    101 Fed. Cl. 297
    , 305 (2011), has not established that the Kinoshita article
    is a reliable source of information for the appropriate interval between vaccination
    and onset. Ms. Cottingham may legitimately point to publication in a journal that
    18
    The clinical trial appears not to have considered the number of women who did not
    receive a vaccination and had a headache.
    19
    The manufacturer also reported “headaches” as an “adverse experience”
    “spontaneously reported during post-approval use of GARDASIL.” Exhibit A at 9 (section 6.2).
    But, for the reasons discussed above, statements in the post-marketing section carry much less, if
    any, weight regarding causation.
    53
    subjects manuscripts to peer review before publication. 20 However, peer review is
    not dispositive about reliability. Daubert v. United States, 
    509 U.S. 579
    , 593-94
    (1993) (“The fact of publication (or lack thereof) in a peer reviewed journal thus
    will be relevant, though not dispositive, consideration in assessing the scientific
    validity of a particular technique or methodology on which an opinion is
    premised.”); see also Terran v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    41 Fed. Cl. 330
    ,
    336 (1998) (highlighting the usefulness of the Daubert standards in evaluating
    reliability of scientific evidence in Vaccine Program cases), aff’d, 
    195 F.3d 1302
    ,
    1316 (Fed. Cir. 1999).
    A problem with assigning the Kinoshita article more than a scintilla of
    weight as to the appropriate temporal interval is the methodology of the Kinoshita
    researchers. In essence, the Kinoshita article is a series of (forty) case reports.
    Isolated case reports are the weakest type of evidence regarding causation,
    meriting little, if any, weight. See Porter v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    663 F.3d 1242
    , 1254 (Fed. Cir. 2011) (stating the “special master’s decision reveals a
    thorough and careful evaluation of all of the evidence, including . . . reports and
    medical literature”).
    Kinoshita’s suggestion that the HPV vaccine might cause symptoms that
    first appear, on average, approximately five months after vaccination is also not
    consistent with the undersigned’s experience as a special master. Setting aside
    cases in which petitioners appear pro se, petitioners do not typically file petitions
    in which the latency between vaccination and onset of symptoms is as long as the
    interval asserted here. When asked during oral argument whether any cases
    supported an interval of more than four months, Ms. Cottingham’s attorney stated
    that he did not perform that research. Tr. 93. Thus, Ms. Cottingham cannot rely
    upon any analogous cases.
    In the context of determining entitlement, special masters have rejected the
    time Ms. Cottingham proposes. See, e.g., Phillips v. Sec’y of Health & Human
    Servs., No. 16-906V, 
    2020 WL 7767511
    , at *30 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. Nov. 23,
    2020) (finding a sixteen-week onset in an HPV-ITP case medically not
    appropriate); Caron v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., No. 15-777V, 
    2017 WL 4349189
    , at *10 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. Sep. 7, 2017) (rejecting five-month interval
    20
    The publisher’s website describes the Journal of Internal Medicine as peer-reviewed.
    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/13652796?tabActivePane=
    54
    in context of multiple vaccines and the onset of a form of osteomyelits), mot. for
    rev. denied, 
    136 Fed. Cl. 360
    , 389-90 (2018). In fact, special masters tend to draw
    a line at a two-month onset. See Conte v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., No.
    17-403V, 
    2020 WL 5743696
    , at *26 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. July 27, 2020) (rejecting
    a twelve-week onset in a flu-CIDP case and remarking that eight weeks appears to
    be the maximum onset time frame deemed reasonable in the Vaccine Program);
    Pearson v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., No. 16-9V, 
    2019 WL 3852633
    , at
    *16 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. July 31, 2019) (finding, in a flu-TM case, that a “74-day
    onset period is medically and scientifically unacceptable”) (citing cases); Kamppi
    v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., No. 15-1013V, 
    2019 WL 5483161
    , at *11
    (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. July 24, 2019) (stating that “[s]pecial masters in the Program
    have not awarded compensation when onset occurs more than two months after
    vaccination” in flu-GBS cases) (citing cases); Harrington v. Sec’y of Health &
    Human Servs., No. 14-43V, 
    2018 WL 4401976
    , at *35 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. Aug.
    14, 2018) (rejecting, in the alternative, a two-month onset in a claim involving the
    HPV vaccine); Koehn v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., No. 11-355V, 
    2013 WL 3214877
    , at *28 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. May 30, 2013) (rejecting two-month onset in
    claim involving HPV vaccine), mot. for rev. denied sub. nom., C.K. v. Sec’y of
    Health & Human Servs., 
    113 Fed. Cl. 757
     (2013), aff’d, 
    773 F.3d 1239
     (Fed. Cir.
    2014). Onset of neurologic conditions more than roughly two months after a swine
    flu vaccination also contributed to rejection of claims in the swine flu
    compensation program. See, e.g., Kenneda v. United States, 
    815 F. Supp. 926
    , 932
    (S.D.W. Va. 1993) (rejecting an onset time frame between 2-3 months in a case
    involving the swine flu vaccination); Benedict v. United States, 785 F. Supp 97, 99
    (N.D. Ohio 1991) (same). In some instances, special masters have also rejected
    time frames shorter than two months. See, e.g., Greene v. Sec’y of Health &
    Human Servs., 
    146 Fed. Cl. 655
    , 667-68 (2020) (affirming the special master’s
    finding that a 41-day onset was “medically unreasonable” in a tetanus-diphtheria
    vaccine-brachial neuritis case), aff’d, No. 2020-1544, 
    2020 WL 7689786
     (Fed. Cir.
    Dec. 28, 2020).
    Although those cases addressed timing in the context of determining
    entitlement, special masters have considered the latency between the vaccination
    and the onset of symptoms in determining whether reasonable basis supports the
    claims set forth in the petition. See Kamppi v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs.,
    No. 15-1013V, 
    2020 WL 7767513
    , at *11-12 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. Nov. 6, 2020)
    (finding no reasonable basis); Harding v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., No. 17-
    1580V, 
    2019 WL 3215974
    , at *7 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. June 18, 2019) (finding
    reasonable basis because the petitioner’s autoimmune disease worsened within 30
    55
    days of receiving a vaccine), mot. for rev. denied, 
    146 Fed. Cl. 381
     (2019); Carter
    v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., No. 16-852V, 
    2018 WL 6322447
    , at *9 (Fed.
    Cl. Spec. Mstr. Oct. 16, 2018) (finding no reasonable basis because, in part, of the
    10-month delay between childhood vaccinations and the onset of developmental
    delay).
    Ms. Cottingham contends other cases do not inform whether there was a
    reasonable basis for her (implicit) claim that a medically appropriate interval
    between an HPV vaccination and the onset of headaches extends to four months.
    See Pet’r’s Br. at 10-12; Tr. 93. Those other cases are distinguishable because they
    involve different vaccines allegedly causing different illnesses.
    Ms. Cottingham’s distinction is a fair point. However, Ms. Cottingham has
    not identified any case involving any vaccine-injury combination remotely
    resembling her claim that a latency of more than four months is appropriate. The
    deviation from the norm present in Ms. Cottingham’s case, combined with the
    relatively commonplace nature of headaches (for example, Ms. Cottingham
    experienced headaches before she received the HPV vaccination, see exhibit 3 at
    55-56 (Mar. 6, 2012)), would seem to heighten the need for a qualified person to
    explain why a four-month latency is reasonable.
    Finally, if Ms. Cottingham had presented some reliable evidence that four
    months is a reasonable latency, Ms. Cottingham’s next step as part of a showing of
    causation in the entitlement phase would be to show “a logical sequence of cause
    and effect” (Althen prong 2). For the reasons discussed above, Ms. Cottingham’s
    burden of proof at the “more than mere scintilla” standard includes an obligation to
    present some reliable evidence regarding Althen prong two.
    For prong two, probative evidence can come from treating doctors.
    Capizzano v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    440 F.3d 1317
    , 1326 (Fed. Cir.
    2006). The two doctors who treated Ms. Cottingham when she complained about
    headaches attributed the headaches to infections. Exhibit 3 at 87-88 (Nov. 30,
    2012), 78 (Jan. 31, 2013). Thus, for Ms. Cottingham’s claim that the HPV
    vaccination caused her headache, the evaluations from the treating doctors cut
    against a finding of reasonable basis.
    56
    C.     Fainting
    Ms. Cottingham next alleges that the July 5, 2012 HPV vaccination caused
    her to suffer fainting episodes on March 29, 2013 and May 23, 2013. Pet. ¶¶ 6-7.
    The objective support for this claim is even weaker than the meager support for the
    claim that the HPV vaccination caused her to suffer headaches due to the longer
    latency between the vaccination and the fainting episodes as well as the presence
    of an alternative cause.
    The two reported incidents of fainting occurred approximately eight months
    and approximately ten months after the vaccination. Eight and ten months is much
    longer than the time listed on the product insert. The HPV vaccine’s manufacturer
    warned that vaccine-recipients should be observed for “15 minutes” because
    syncope might develop. Exhibit A at 3 (section 5.1). The manufacturer did not
    report syncope in association with the results of clinical trials. Id. at 4-9 (section
    6.1).21
    In oral argument, Ms. Cottingham attempted to distinguish what the
    manufacturer reported on the product insert from what she experienced. This
    attempt was largely unsuccessful. Ms. Cottingham stated that the manufacturer
    was reporting a type of syncope known as “vasovagal syncope.” Tr. 19. The
    evidentiary basis for this assertion is not readily apparent as the product insert uses
    neither “vaso” nor “vagal.”
    Ms. Cottingham’s attempted distinction asserts that the syncope she
    experienced approximately eight and approximately ten months later was a type of
    syncope known as “postural” syncope. Tr. 19. The “postural” nature of Ms.
    Cottingham derives, in her view, from the reports in medical records that the
    syncope is associated with standing and alleviated on sitting. Id.; see also exhibit 3
    at 70-71, 80-81, 111. However, Ms. Cottingham informed the cardiologist who
    treated her about the context in which syncope and near-syncopal episodes
    occurred. Even with this information, the cardiologist diagnosed her as suffering
    from vasovagal syncope. Exhibit 3 at 112. While during oral argument Ms.
    Cottingham dismissed this diagnosis as not supported, Tr. 79-80, Ms. Cottingham
    has not cited any evidence from a medical professional (as opposed to her
    21
    Syncope is included as part of the post-marketing experience. Id. at 9 (section 6.2).
    However, no time frame is listed.
    57
    attorney’s argument) that the syncope she suffered approximately eight and
    approximately ten months after vaccination was postural.
    Even if a medical professional had classified Ms. Cottingham’s fainting
    episodes as “postural,” the latency between the HPV vaccination and the earliest
    fainting episode is long. In Brinth, the “mean delay between vaccination and onset
    of symptoms was 9.3 days (range: 0-30).” Exhibit 12 at 2603. In Blitshteyn, the
    longest onset between vaccination and the onset of symptoms was two months.
    Exhibit 14 at 136 (table 1: patient 2). Two months is approximately six months
    faster than the onset of Ms. Cottingham’s first fainting episode. Even two months
    is a long latency between vaccination and syncope. When the onset of a seizure
    was eight weeks after vaccination, Dr. Blitshteyn declined to provide an opinion in
    support of causation. Leonard v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., No. 13-668V,
    
    2014 WL 1324596
     (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. March 13, 2014). Similarly, a special
    master was not arbitrary in crediting the opinion of a cardiologist the Secretary had
    retained who opined that “‘10 to 12 hours between vaccination and syncope is too
    long for there to be a causative relationship.’” Hopkins v. Sec’y of Health &
    Human Servs., 
    62 Fed. Cl. 333
    , 335 (2004) (denying motion for review).
    Delays of approximately eight and approximately ten months are well
    outside patterns commonly presented in Vaccine Program petitions. This latency
    is a primary reason for finding that Ms. Cottingham’s claim that the HPV
    vaccination caused her fainting episodes lacks reasonable basis.
    The other primary reason for finding that Ms. Cottingham’s claim that the
    HPV vaccine caused her to suffer syncopal episodes is that on both occasions the
    doctor who treated Ms. Cottingham proposed causes other than the HPV vaccine.
    Specifically, on March 29, 2013, the doctor assessed Ms. Cottingham as suffering
    from “gastroenteritis” and “dehydration.” Exhibit 3 at 81. Similarly, on May 23,
    2013, the doctor stated that Ms. Cottingham suffered from dehydration and noted
    that she did not eat or drink that morning. Id. at 70. These statements from
    treating doctors constitute “objective evidence,” weighing against a finding that
    Ms. Cottingham possessed a reasonable basis to assert that the HPV vaccine
    caused her syncopal episodes.
    To be sure, a treating doctor’s assessment is just one factor and special
    masters must consider the record as a whole as well as the totality of circumstances
    in determining whether objective evidence supports finding a reasonable basis for
    claims set forth in a petition. Thus, a treating doctor’s indication that something
    other than the vaccine caused an injury merits some consideration. Likewise, a
    58
    treating doctor’s statement that a vaccine caused some injury also carries value.
    But, neither negative nor affirmative statements resolve the issue by themselves.
    Here, Ms. Cottingham has not identified any objective evidence suggesting
    that the diagnostic conclusions Ms. Cottingham’s doctors reached on March 29,
    2013, and May 23, 2013, were erroneous. Indeed, when Ms. Cottingham saw a
    cardiologist for the purpose of exploring the reasons for her syncope, the
    cardiologist seemed to endorse the previous diagnoses as the cardiologist also
    “emphasized aggressive fluid hydration.” Exhibit 3 at 112.
    D.     Menstrual Difficulties
    From the group of conditions for which Ms. Cottingham has a diagnosis
    from a treating doctor, the remaining problem is menstrual difficulties. Ms.
    Cottingham’s petition alleges that the HPV vaccine caused her to suffer menstrual
    problems in the “latter part of 2013.” Pet. ¶ 9. For this assertion, the petition cites
    Ms. Cottingham’s affidavit, exhibit 1.
    The medical records are not consistent with the affidavit’s assertion as to
    when Ms. Cottingham experienced menstrual difficulties. Ms. Cottingham has not
    identified any medical records showing menstrual difficulties in the latter part of
    2013.22 On August 18, 2014, Ms. Cottingham’s pediatrician noted that she had her
    last menstruation on July 25, 2014. Exhibit 3 at 109. This record does not suggest
    that Ms. Cottingham experienced any menstruation problems close in time to that
    appointment.
    Instead, Ms. Cottingham’s medical records indicate that she had a menstrual
    period in December 2014, but did not have one in January 2015. Exhibit 7 at 7.
    After a doctor prescribed oral contraceptives on April 28, 2015, id. at 9, Ms.
    Cottingham seemed to return to a “regular” menstrual cycle with the help of oral
    22
    The discrepancy between the affidavit and the medical records might be explained by
    the chronology of when Mr. Downing received medical records. Mr. Downing’s timesheets
    show that a paralegal (RWC) received some records from the University of Alabama-
    Birmingham Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology on August 4, 2015. After additional
    inquiries, this same paralegal received additional records on December 15, 2015. Ms.
    Cottingham signed her affidavit on October 28, 2015. Exhibit 1.
    59
    contraceptives by July 8, 2015. Id. at 11-13 (stating that Ms. Cottingham was
    “currently using [a contraceptive] for cycle control . . . and is cycling regularly”).
    The support for the proposition that the HPV vaccination can cause
    menstrual difficulties rests on potentially unreliable evidence. The manufacturer’s
    product insert does not list any problems with menstrual difficulties either
    following clinical trials or in the post-marketing experience. See exhibit A.
    Similarly, the articles from the United States and Denmark do not report recipients
    of the HPV vaccine began to experience menstrual problems after the vaccination.
    See exhibit 14 (Blitshteyn), exhibit 12 (Brinth). 23
    On the other hand, the two sequential reports from Japan do report menstrual
    problems after the HPV vaccination. In the earlier study, Kinoshita and colleagues
    stated that 35 percent (14 out of 44 women) had “disturbed menstruation.” Exhibit
    13 at 2. In the follow-up study, Ozawa and colleagues found that nearly 50 percent
    of the 72 participants suffered menstrual abnormalities. Exhibit 15 at 5 (table 2).
    Ozawa and colleagues listed menstrual abnormalities among their unverified
    diagnostic criteria. Id. at 4 (table 1). Neither Kinoshita nor Ozawa report any
    information about the latency between the HPV vaccination and the beginning of
    menstrual problems specifically.
    In Ms. Cottingham’s case, the amount of time between her July 5, 2012
    HPV vaccination and the onset of menstrual difficulties around January 2015 is
    approximately two and a half years. It is difficult to fathom how the July 5, 2012
    HPV vaccine can cause a problem that started more than two years later. This
    temporal relationship is quite possibly the longest temporal interval proposed in
    any case in which an attorney represented a petitioner in the undersigned’s tenure.
    The undersigned is not aware of any credible medical theory, offered in any
    circumstance, that might come close to explaining how the latency could extend to
    30 months.
    To be fair, the October 30, 2015 petition does not allege that the July 5, 2012
    HPV vaccination caused menstrual difficulties beginning in January 2015. The
    petition actually alleges that the menstrual difficulties began near the end of 2013.
    23
    Based upon the questionnaires the participants answered, the Brinth researchers
    reported that before the vaccination, all participants either used oral contraceptives or had
    irregular periods. Exhibit 12 at 2604. The Brinth group did not report any aggravation of
    menstrual problems.
    60
    Pet. ¶ 9. If this assertion were accurate, then the latency between the July 5, 2012
    HPV vaccination and the onset of menstrual difficulties (assumed to be November
    15, 2013) would be still be approximately 16 months. While 16 months is
    obviously shorter than 30 months, 16 months remains far beyond the temporal
    interval any special master has recognized.
    Finally, to extend an extra benefit to Ms. Cottingham, it might be assumed
    that after Ms. Cottingham’s attorney obtained additional records from the
    gynecologist around December 15, 2015, Ms. Cottingham might have amended her
    petition to allege that the second (not first) dose of the HPV vaccine caused her
    menstrual difficulties.24 The second dose of the HPV vaccine was administered to
    Ms. Cottingham on August 18, 2014. Exhibit 3 at 109-10. If it is assumed that
    Ms. Cottingham’s menstrual difficulties began on January 1, 2015, then the latency
    is approximately 4.5 months.
    An interval of approximately 4.5 months is outside the scope of intervals
    that special masters have credited for reasons explained above in the context of
    Ms. Cottingham’s claim that the first dose of the HPV vaccine caused her
    headaches. While a latency of 4.5 months falls within the range Kinoshita
    reported, the Kinoshita methodology is suspect and has not been defended by any
    witness in this case. Consequently, for an array of different intervals, Ms.
    Cottingham has not met her burden of establishing the reasonable basis for alleging
    her menstrual difficulties arose in a time for which an inference of causation is
    appropriate.
    Beyond the temporal problem (Althen prong 3) and the general causation
    issue (Althen prong 1), Ms. Cottingham’s claim regarding menstrual difficulties
    also suffers from a lack of evidence on specific causation (Althen prong 2). As
    discussed above, Ms. Cottingham has not presented a report from an expert
    opining that a dose of the HPV vaccine caused Ms. Cottingham’s menstrual
    difficulties. Ms. Cottingham also has not identified any treating doctor who
    presented such an opinion in a medical report. The closest evidence on this point
    is that Ms. Cottingham’s mother informed the pediatrician that she (Ms.
    Cottingham’s mother) was “concerned” that the HPV vaccination caused changes
    24
    Ms. Cottingham did not amend her petition before filing a motion to dismiss on
    October 6, 2016.
    61
    in Ms. Cottingham’s menstrual cycle. Exhibit 3 at 175. However, beyond this
    note, the doctor did not endorse or otherwise comment upon this concern.
    VI.   Additional Remarks
    For the reasons explained above, Ms. Cottingham has not met her burden of
    establishing a reasonable basis for the claims set forth in her petition. This
    outcome is based on a consideration of the totality of the circumstances, but turns
    on two points in particular.
    The first point is the question of law as to whether an analysis of reasonable
    basis includes investigating whether a petitioner has presented “objective
    evidence,” concerning the vaccinee’s case specifically. As discussed above, this
    issue arises most prominently in Althen prong 2. Because the Vaccine Act
    requires a finding of reasonable basis “for the claim for which the petition was
    brought,” 42 U.S.C. § 300aa–15(e)(1), and because Ms. Cottingham’s petition
    alleges that the vaccine harmed her, it seems natural that the reasonable basis
    inquiry explores whether any evidence indicates that the vaccination harmed Ms.
    Cottingham. However, the Federal Circuit did not address this question
    specifically. Thus, the undersigned’s interpretation of the Vaccine Act may
    ultimately be incorrect. If Ms. Cottingham’s case again reaches the Federal
    Circuit, this case may allow the Federal Circuit to define the scope of the
    reasonable basis inquiry, including whether a statement from a treating doctor or
    retained expert is necessary to present more than a scintilla of evidence regarding
    prong two. See Tr. 114.
    The second point underlying the outcome for Ms. Cottingham’s motion is
    evidentiary. Evidence contributing to a finding that Ms. Cottingham did not
    possess a reasonable basis for the claims set forth in her petition include: (1) the
    lack of a report from an expert opining that the HPV vaccinations harmed Ms.
    Cottingham, (2) the lack of a statement from a treating doctor suggesting the HPV
    vaccinations harmed Ms. Cottingham, (3) the lack of diagnosis to support the
    assertion of dysautonomia (meaning no unifying syndrome), (4) the presence of
    alternative causes in the medical records (viral infections for the headaches and
    62
    dehydration for the fainting), and (5) the long latency between the HPV
    vaccination and the onset of different problems. 25
    The long latency weighs heavily. Among the claims set forth in the October
    15, 2015 petition, the shortest latency is approximately four months. In the pages
    above, the undersigned has attempted to set out why a four-month interval is an
    unreasonably lengthy amount of time. See Pafford v. Sec’y of Health & Human
    Servs., 
    451 F.3d 1352
    , 1358 (Fed. Cir. 2006) (stating, in the context of entitlement,
    that “without some evidence of temporal linkage, the vaccination might receive
    blame for events that occur weeks, months, or years outside of the time in which
    scientific or epidemiologic evidence would expect the onset of harm”).
    The determination that a four-month interval undermines the argument that
    Ms. Cottingham brought her petition with a reasonable basis is based, in turn, on
    the undersigned’s experience. The experience of the presiding judicial officer
    seems to be a factor useful in evaluating whether the claims in a petition were
    supported by reasonable basis. See Highmark Inc. v. Allcare Health Mgmt. Sy,
    Inc., 
    572 U.S. 559
    , 564 (2014) (interpreting a provision of the Patent Act, 
    35 U.S.C. § 285
    , authorizing attorneys’ fees in “exceptional cases” and stating that
    district courts are “better positioned to determine whether a case is exceptional
    because it lives with the case over a prolonged period of time”); Whitecotton v.
    Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    81 F.3d 1099
    , 1104 (Fed. Cir. 1996) (allowing
    special masters to use their “accumulated expertise” in determining whether to find
    entitlement to compensation); Saxton v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    3 F.3d 1517
    , 1521 (Fed. Cir. 1993) (allowing special masters to use their experience in
    determining the reasonableness of the amount of attorneys’ fees and costs); cf.
    Silva v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    108 Fed. Cl. 401
     (2012) (reviewing a
    finding of no reasonable basis under the broad abuse of discretion standard).
    Based upon this experience, Ms. Cottingham’s claim that the HPV vaccine caused
    25
    In setting forth the factors that contribute most significantly to the finding that Ms.
    Cottingham did not present sufficient evidence to satisfy the reasonable basis standard, the
    undersigned also explains that the subjective belief of Ms. Cottingham or her attorney do not
    constitute evidence. “We agree, as a general matter, that the extent of a party’s pre-suit
    investigation or how fervently it believed in its allegations does not affect the objective strength
    of that party’s litigating position.” Nova Chems. Corp. v. Dow Chem. Co., 
    856 F.3d 1012
    , 1018
    (Fed. Cir. 2017) (affirming award of attorneys’ fees), cert. denied, 
    138 S. Ct. 485
     (2017).
    63
    an injury that first appeared approximately four months after the vaccination is an
    outlier.
    This case’s outlier status with respect to timing by itself does not mean that
    the claim lacked a reasonable basis. In other words, the extremely lengthy interval
    between the vaccination and the earliest onset of symptoms is not dispositive. For
    example, Ms. Cottingham might have established the reasonable basis for the
    claims set forth in her petition by presenting credible and objective evidence
    explaining that a four-month interval is appropriate. But, here, even if Kinoshita
    and Ozawa were worth more than a scintilla, they still do not rise to the level
    supporting a reasonable basis.
    Nevertheless, the undersigned recognizes that appellate authorities might
    reach different results on either the legal question or the evidentiary issue. See,
    e.g., Adjustacam, LLC v. Newegg, Inc., 
    861 F.3d 1353
     (Fed. Cir. 2017) (ruling
    that district court abused its discretion in finding a patent case not exceptional).
    Accordingly, to account for this potential outcome and to promote judicial
    efficiency in any appellate process, the undersigned next determines a reasonable
    amount of attorneys’ fees and costs to which Ms. Cottingham would be entitled.
    VII. Reasonable Amount
    As Ms. Cottingham has litigated her eligibility for an award of attorneys’
    fees and costs, the amount that Ms. Cottingham has requested has, naturally,
    increased. On remand, she has submitted two different requests, which have
    slightly different procedural postures as explained below.
    October 14, 2020 Renewed Motion
    Her October 14, 2020 request seeks $78,016.00 in attorneys’ fees plus
    $8,105.12 in attorneys’ costs, for a total request of $86,121.12. The most recent
    entry in this request is October 12, 2020. Although the docket sheet sets a
    response deadline of November 6, 2020, the Secretary did not file a response
    directly in response to the October 14, 2020 motion and the Secretary did not
    otherwise challenge the amount of compensation Ms. Cottingham is requesting.
    See McIntosh v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    139 Fed. Cl. 238
     (2018)
    (discussing Secretary’s practice of not addressing amounts requested in attorneys’
    fees and costs).
    64
    A portion of this currently requested amount was evaluated previously. For
    work performed before September 19, 2017, Ms. Cottingham was awarded
    $32,909.36. This amount was derived from Ms. Cottingham’s October 26, 2016
    motion as supplemented by her September 17, 2017 motion.
    item               Pet’r’s mot. Pet’r’s supp’l       sum of     Second Fees
    filed,      mot. filed      previous two   Decision,
    Oct. 26, 2016 Sep. 17, 2017       columns     Dec. 12, 2017
    attorneys' fees      $10,363.00   $20,182.50        $30,545.50    $30,045.50
    costs                 $1,105.77     $1,758.09         $2,863.86    $2,863.86
    total                $11,468.77   $21,940.59        $33,409.36    $32,909.36
    The difference between the amount requested and the amount awarded ($500.00)
    derives from a slightly high billing rate for Mr. Downing and a paralegal, Ms.
    Avery, in his office.
    Ms. Cottingham did not challenge this deduction by filing a motion for
    review. Instead, it appears that Ms. Cottingham accepted this amount. In her
    Second Motion for Review, filed July 19, 2018, she requested that the Court award
    $32,909.46. Later, as an alternative form of relief, Ms. Cottingham requested that
    the Court remand for further proceedings to determine a reasonable amount of
    attorneys’ fees and costs. Pet’r’s Reply, filed Aug. 27, 2018, at 7.
    Given Ms. Cottingham’s apparent acquiescence, the remaining analysis
    begins on October 5, 2017, which is after the previous evaluation ended. Ms.
    Cottingham’s case progressed, as described in the procedural history, through
    various stages. The stages and the amounts requested are summarized in the
    appendix.
    Ms. Cottingham’s request for attorneys’ fees and costs is analyzed pursuant
    to the lodestar method in which a reasonable hourly rate is multiplied by a
    reasonable number of hours. This computation yields the lodestar, which can be
    adjusted upward or downward. Avera v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    515 F.3d 1343
    , 1347-48 (Fed. Cir. 2008). Here, neither an upward nor downward
    adjustment appears appropriate. Thus, the focus is determining a reasonable
    number of hours and a reasonable hourly rate.
    65
    Reasonable hourly rate. As previously noted, the Second Fees Decision
    found that Mr. Downing’s hourly rate was too high. Accordingly, when Mr.
    Downing has invoiced at $375.00 per hour, an appropriate rate is $365.00 per hour.
    See Bourche v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., No. 15-232V, 
    2017 WL 2480936
    , at *4 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. May 11, 2017) (finding $365 to be a
    reasonable hourly rate for Mr. Downing’s work in 2017). From this foundation,
    Mr. Downing’s proposal of an hourly rate of $385 for work in 2018 is also
    unreasonable and a reasonable rate for 2018 is $375 per hour. Abbott v. Sec’y of
    Health & Human Servs., No. 14-90V, 
    2019 WL 1856435
    , at *3 (Fed. Cl. Spec.
    Mstr. Mar. 19, 2019) (citing Bourche v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., No. 15-
    232V, 
    2018 WL 7046894
    , at *2 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. Dec. 19, 2018)). Mr.
    Downing did not propose an increase from his 2018 rate for his work in 2019.
    Because the proposed 2019 rate ($385 per hour) is a reasonable increase over the
    previously determined 2018 rate ($375 per hour), the 2019 proposed rate is
    reasonable. Pickens v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., No. 17-187V, 
    2019 WL 5260367
    , at *3 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. Sept. 20, 2019). Similarly, Mr. Downing
    continues to propose $385.00 as his reasonable hourly rate for work in 2020. This
    2020 rate is reasonable.
    The hourly rates of the paralegal, Ms. Avery, follow a similar analysis.
    Through 2016, the proposed charge for Ms. Avery was $100 an hour but then in
    2017, the paralegal rate increased to $135 per hour. This increase has been found
    unreasonable. Abbott, 
    2019 WL 1856435
    , at *3 (“Mr. Downing has not provided
    any reasoning why the paralegal’s rate would increase to $135 for 2017/2018.”).
    Consequently, for 2017 and 2018, a reasonable hourly rate for Ms. Avery is $110
    per hour. For 2019, a reasonable hourly rate is $120 per hour.
    The hourly rates for Mr. Downing’s associate, Courtney Van Cott, are
    reasonable as proposed. No adjustment is required.
    Reasonable Number of Hours. After the September 17, 2017 supplemental
    motion for attorneys’ fees and costs, the primary activity has been drafting briefs.
    With respect to the number of hours for a motion for review, the Court has
    generally accepted the number of hours a petitioner’s attorney has billed. See
    Scharfenberger v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    124 Fed. Cl. 225
    , 235-36
    (2015) (crediting approximately 77 hours for a motion for review); Doe/11 v.
    Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    89 Fed. Cl. 661
    , 667 (2009) (crediting
    approximately 160 hours of work for two motions for review).
    66
    Here, Mr. Downing and colleagues have spent fewer hours on briefs than the
    number of hours the Court credited in Scharfenberger and Doe/11. Thus, the
    number of hours is accepted as reasonable.
    Nevertheless, the undersigned observes that the legal team spent
    approximately 66 hours on drafting the Federal Circuit brief. (This figure does not
    include time spent on other tasks such as preparing the joint appendix or traveling
    for oral argument.) Sixty-six hours is more than twice the amount of time spent in
    drafting the third motion for review, which was approximately 26 hours. The
    entries associated with writing the Federal Circuit brief provide little light as to
    how this time was spent. For example, on April 24, 2019, Ms. Van Cott invoiced
    5.6 hours for “Continue drafting Petitioner’s Motion for Review to the Federal
    Circuit.” While the task of writing a legal brief (or decision) is necessarily
    comprehensive, some specificity would seem possible. Was Ms. Van Cott
    primarily writing the procedural history? The section regarding the medical
    articles? The argument about the totality of circumstances?
    As previously stated, the number of hours is not reduced, but the hourly rates
    for Mr. Downing and Ms. Avery are changed. The resulting calculation decreases
    the amount of attorneys’ fees incurred after September 17, 2017, by $443.50.
    Costs. The costs are reasonable and adequately documented. Ms.
    Cottingham is awarded $8,105.12 in attorneys’ costs.
    Sum. A reasonable amount of attorneys’ fees and costs for work performed
    before October 12, 2020 is $85,177.62, consisting of $77,072.50 in attorneys’ fees
    and $8,105.12 in attorneys’ costs.
    January 4, 2021 Motion for Supplemental Fees
    After October 12, 2020, Ms. Cottingham’s attorneys continued to advance
    the request for an award of attorneys’ fees and costs primarily by preparing a brief,
    filed on November 19, 2020. Their efforts are reflected in a motion for
    supplemental fees filed on January 4, 2021.
    Vaccine Rule 20(b)(1) allows the Secretary 14 days to respond to a motion
    for attorneys’ fees and costs. As such, according to the docket, the Secretary’s
    deadline is January 19, 2021.
    Normally, the undersigned would not assess a motion for attorneys’ fees
    until after the Secretary has had an opportunity to object. However, Ms.
    67
    Cottingham’s January 4, 2021 motion is unusual. The undersigned cannot wait
    until after January 19, 2021, because the time for issuing a decision on remand
    elapses before that date. See Order, issued Oct. 14, 2020; Vaccine Rule 28(b).
    Furthermore, based upon the Secretary’s current practice of not offering
    meaningful comments about the amount requested in attorneys’ fees and costs, see
    McIntosh, 
    139 Fed. Cl. 238
    , a delay would be unlikely to change the outcome.
    Finally, because the analysis of the reasonable amount of attorneys’ fees and costs
    is conditioned on an appellate authority finding that reasonable basis supported the
    claims set forth in Ms. Cottingham’s petition, the Secretary would appear to have
    an opportunity to dispute the amounts awarded pursuant to Ms. Cottingham’s
    January 4, 2021 motion in an appellate filing. For these reasons, the undersigned
    has reviewed the January 4, 2021 motion. In the January 4, 2021 motion, Ms.
    Cottingham has requested an additional $15,959.00 in attorneys’ fees and
    $1,106.58 in costs. Both amounts are reasonable.
    VIII. Conclusion
    Ms. Cottingham’s motion for an award of attorneys’ fees and costs was
    remanded to correct the erroneous statement that she had submitted “no evidence”
    in support of her argument that her unsuccessful October 30, 2015 petition was
    supported by reasonable basis. Upon remand, the undersigned has re-reviewed all
    evidence, including Ms. Cottingham’s medical records, the product insert, and the
    medical articles.
    Considered collectively, this evidence does not rise to the level warranting a
    finding of reasonable basis for the reasons explained above. Accordingly, based
    on the totality of the circumstances, Ms. Cottingham has not met the predicate for
    being eligible for any attorneys’ fees and costs. Her motion for attorneys’ fees and
    costs is DENIED. Pursuant to Vaccine Rule 28.1(a), the Clerk’s Office is directed
    to provide this decision to the assigned judge.
    IT IS SO ORDERED.
    s/ Christian J. Moran
    Christian J. Moran
    Special Master
    68
    Entitlement                 Fees before Special Master     1st mot. for review
    Phase
    start date                    5/15/2015                         10/21/2016                  4/21/2017
    begin drafting mot.
    starting event         conferring with new client          preparing motion for fees
    for review
    end date                     10/18/2016                          4/20/2017                  9/19/2017
    reviewing SM's decision denying drafting supp'l app'n
    ending event          joint notice not to seek review
    mot. for reconsideration    for attorneys' fees
    total time requested                66.20                              41.40                       32.00
    $10,293.00                         $11,374.50                  $8,808.00
    amount requested in fees
    gathering evidence, drafting
    petition, conferring with           fees motion, motion for        drafting mot. for
    primary tasks
    potential experts, dismissing             reconsideration            review and reply
    case
    The December 12, 2017 Decision found reasonable attorneys' fees through September
    19, 2017 to be $32,909.36.
    2d mot. for       3d mot. for review       Federal Circuit
    Phase
    review
    start date             10/5/2017             6/1/2018                9/20/2018
    reviewing       Review of remand
    starting event            CM/ECF          decision on motion    analysis of new opinion
    notification         for review.
    end date               5/31/2018            8/28/2018                8/19/2020
    Receive and review
    Review Court of
    Court's Order; memo
    Federal Claim's                        Review the Decision of
    ending event                           to file re: dates and
    5/31/2018                             the Federal Circuit.
    issues needed to be
    Opinion.
    addressed.
    total time requested          22.40                40.50                   98.40
    $5,961.00            $11,807.50              $28,463.00
    amount requested in fees
    drafting response                          Federal Circuit brief,
    Pet'r's second motion
    primary tasks         to Secetary's mot.                            appendix, oral
    for review, reply brief
    for review                                  argument
    Fees again                 Supp Fees after
    Phase
    Remand
    start date                    8/21/2020                   10/17/2020
    Drafting work re:
    supplemental motion for atty        Draft outline for
    starting event
    fees; correspondence to clerk           motion
    re: same.
    end date                     10/13/2020                   12/14/2020
    Drafting work re: renewed
    Attend oral
    ending event              motion for final fees;
    argument
    preparation exhibits for filing
    total time requested                  3.40                        47.40
    $1,309.00                   $15, 959.00
    amount requested in fees
    Briefing in
    accordance with SM's
    order for briefing
    primary tasks               Motions drafting
    remand issues;
    preparing for oral
    argument
    

Document Info

Docket Number: 15-1291

Judges: Christian J. Moran

Filed Date: 2/2/2021

Precedential Status: Non-Precedential

Modified Date: 2/2/2021

Authorities (20)

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anne-caldwell-sally-mcrae-and-sybil-brown-cheryl-crawford-v-puget-sound , 824 F.2d 765 ( 1987 )

Nathaniel Saxton, by and Through His Legal Representatives, ... , 3 F.3d 1517 ( 1993 )

Michele Y. Terran, as Legal Representative of Julie F. ... , 195 F.3d 1302 ( 1999 )

Porter v. Secretary of Health and Human Services , 663 F.3d 1242 ( 2011 )

Rose Capizzano v. Secretary of Health and Human Services , 440 F.3d 1317 ( 2006 )

james-l-grant-individually-and-as-guardian-of-scott-grant-an , 956 F.2d 1144 ( 1992 )

Cloer v. Secretary of Health and Human Services , 654 F.3d 1322 ( 2011 )

Broekelschen v. Secretary of Health & Human Services , 618 F.3d 1339 ( 2010 )

Michael Lampe and Carolyn Lampe, Individually and as Next ... , 219 F.3d 1357 ( 2000 )

Margaret Whitecotton, by Her Next Friends, Kay Whitecotton ... , 81 F.3d 1099 ( 1996 )

Lisa Munn, Personal Representative of the Estate of Chelsea ... , 970 F.2d 863 ( 1992 )

Althen v. Secretary of Health and Human Services , 418 F.3d 1274 ( 2005 )

Andreu Ex Rel. Andreu v. Secretary of Health and Human ... , 569 F.3d 1367 ( 2009 )

Laitram Corporation, Plaintiff/cross-Appellant v. Nec ... , 115 F.3d 947 ( 1997 )

Carl J. Perreira and Christina J. Perreira, Parents and ... , 33 F.3d 1375 ( 1994 )

Avera v. Secretary of Health and Human Services , 515 F.3d 1343 ( 2008 )

Celotex Corp. v. Catrett, Administratrix of the Estate of ... , 106 S. Ct. 2548 ( 1986 )

Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharmaceuticals, Inc. , 113 S. Ct. 2786 ( 1993 )

Kenneda v. United States , 815 F. Supp. 926 ( 1993 )

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