United States v. Gonsalves , 859 F.3d 95 ( 2017 )


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  •           United States Court of Appeals
    For the First Circuit
    Nos. 15-1194 & 15-1838
    UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,
    Appellee,
    v.
    JOSHUA GONSALVES; STANLEY GONSALVES,
    Defendants, Appellants.
    APPEALS FROM THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT
    FOR THE DISTRICT OF MASSACHUSETTS
    [Hon. Patti B. Saris, Chief U.S. District Judge]
    Before
    Lynch, Thompson, and Barron,
    Circuit Judges.
    Larry J. Ritchie for appellant Joshua Gonsalves.
    Joshua L. Gordon, with whom Law Office of Joshua L. Gordon
    was on brief, for appellant Stanley Gonsalves.
    Randall Ernest Kromm, Assistant United States Attorney, with
    whom Carmen M. Ortiz, United States Attorney, was on brief, for
    appellee.
    June 7, 2017
    THOMPSON, Circuit Judge.        Brothers Stanley and Joshua
    Gonsalves (to keep the Gonsalveses straight, we call them Stanley
    and Joshua but mean no disrespect) were convicted on multiple
    counts stemming from their operation of an oxycodone-trafficking
    ring on Cape Cod.     Both now challenge their convictions, and
    Stanley challenges his sentence.         Finding none of the brothers'
    plaints have merit, we affirm.
    SETTING THE STAGE
    The Gonsalves brothers' trial spanned eighteen days and
    included testimony from thirty-four witnesses.          We decline to
    recount it all now (and to explain the brothers' claims on appeal,
    we don't have to). But to put everything in its necessary context,
    here is the Cliff's-Notes version of what happened; we will detail
    the rest later, when we assess the brothers' respective arguments.1
    1  Both brothers claim the evidence against them was
    insufficient for the jury to convict, and Joshua challenges the
    district court's denial of his motion to suppress evidence seized
    during a warrantless search of his car. On these claims we present
    the relevant facts "in the light most flattering to the
    government." United States v. Rodríguez-Soler, 
    773 F.3d 289
    , 290
    (1st Cir. 2014); see United States v. Burgos-Montes, 
    786 F.3d 92
    ,
    99 (1st Cir. 2015). As to the other claims, the question of how
    we relate the facts is unsettled in this circuit--some cases relate
    them in the light most favorable to the verdict, but others take
    a "balanced" and objective approach. 
    Burgos-Montes, 786 F.3d at 99
    . Though our framing of those facts does not impact the outcome
    of the case, favorably to the Gonsalves brothers we explain the
    facts relevant to their other claims in a balanced manner.
    - 2 -
    I. The Cast and Crew of the Conspiracy
    The story of the Gonsalves brothers' drug-trafficking
    conspiracy begins around the end of 2009, when Stanley (Joshua
    wasn't on board yet) started buying oxycodone pills in bulk from
    Florida resident John Willis.          Stanley's objective:         to get (and
    resell for profit) as many pills as possible.                   Here's how the
    operation worked: both Stanley and Willis paid runners who carried
    money down to Florida to buy oxycodone pills from Willis, Stanley's
    primary    supplier.        Willis   (or   other   members     of   his   Florida
    operation) hid the pills in vitamin bottles, doctored to look
    never-opened, then gave the bottles to the runners to carry back
    to   Stanley    in    Massachusetts.       Stanley   (and      members     of    his
    Massachusetts-based crew) counted the pills and packaged them into
    lots of 100.         Stanley then sold those lots to lower-level drug
    dealers.    At first, Stanley paid Willis $14 per thirty-milligram
    pill and sold them to dealers for $19 each.                    Over time, the
    wholesale      and    the   resale   prices   went   up   to    $17   and       $21,
    respectively.        Dealers sold the pills on the street for $30 a pop.
    Joshua joined his brother's conspiracy in 2010, shortly
    after he was released from jail on an unrelated charge.                   At first
    Joshua worked as a runner, but he eventually took over some of
    Stanley's responsibilities in the conspiracy, such as buying pills
    from suppliers.        He sold some pills on his own, too.
    - 3 -
    The runners for the Gonsalves brothers--all friends,
    family, girlfriends, and exes--made regular trips to Florida.           At
    first, they flew.       Then they switched to driving after one of the
    runners was busted in the airport on his way back to Massachusetts
    carrying   a   bottle    of   about   8,000   pills.   The   runners   each
    transported at least 1,000 pills per trip, though some reported as
    many as 8,000 or 9,000 per trip, and one reported that she once
    carried almost 20,000 pills.           The brothers' operation "flooded"
    the Cape Cod market, bringing in an estimated 371,327 pills in
    under three years (and that's an allegedly conservative estimate).
    II. Johnny Willis meets Johnny Law--and so do the Gonsalves
    Brothers
    Now, (presumably) unbeknownst to Stanley and Joshua,
    Willis was the subject of a multi-agency criminal investigation
    originally initiated by the FBI's Asian Organized Crime Task Force
    to target two other, Boston-area crime lords. (The Willis-specific
    branch of the investigation was known as "Operation White Devil.")
    While they were looking into the Willis operation, the FBI-led
    task force (that also included ATF and IRS2 agents, Massachusetts
    State Police, plus some Boston police officers to boot) found out
    about Willis' top customers--the Gonsalves brothers.          The FBI-led
    task force also learned that the Barnstable Police Department and
    2  Respectively, these stand for the Federal Bureau of
    Investigation; the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and
    Explosives; and the Internal Revenue Service.
    - 4 -
    a DEA-led Cape Cod Drug Task Force were already looking into the
    Gonsalveses'      activities,       so    the    task    forces     joined    forces.
    Operation White Devil culminated in the May 2011 arrest of Willis
    and   some   of   his   henchmen,        which   turned       off   the   Florida-to-
    Massachusetts pill faucet.               Undeterred, the Gonsalves brothers
    regrouped and started selling oxycodone bought from new suppliers.
    But, the post-Willis era did not last long because by this point,
    law enforcement had new information from arrested Willis crew
    members, as well as from their own posse of confidential informants
    ("CIs"),     clueing    them   in   on    more    of    the    particulars    of   the
    Gonsalves brothers' illegal dealings.
    A tip from one informant, CI-1, led to the February 2012
    arrest of Joshua and crew member Katelyn Shaw (Joshua's then-
    girlfriend) and the seizure of over twenty grand in cash, drug
    paraphernalia, and a good lot of oxycodone pills.                     About a month
    later, police seized another $75,000 from another Gonsalves crew
    member (turned informant) which had been earmarked for an oxycodone
    resupply; and since that was "the end of the money," the seizure
    brought the Gonsalveses' operation to a near-halt.
    On November 1, 2012, a grand jury indicted the brothers
    on a charge of Conspiracy to Possess with Intent to Distribute and
    Conspiracy to Distribute Oxycodone in violation of 21 U.S.C. §
    846. A second superseding indictment, issued eighteen months later
    on May 8, 2014, further charged (1) Money Laundering Conspiracy in
    - 5 -
    violation    of     18     U.S.C.   §   1956(h);     (2)   multiple      counts   of
    Concealment        Money    Laundering     in    violation    of    18   U.S.C.   §
    1956(a)(1)(B)(i); (3) Possession of a Firearm in Furtherance of a
    Drug Trafficking Conspiracy in violation of 18 U.S.C. § 924(c);
    (4) Drug and Money Laundering Forfeiture allegations under 21
    U.S.C. § 853 and 18 U.S.C. § 982(a)(1); and, against Stanley only,
    (5) Unlawful Monetary Transactions in violation of 18 U.S.C. §
    1957.
    III. Court Proceedings
    In pretrial proceedings, Joshua moved to suppress all
    items seized during the February 2012 traffic stop.                  The district
    court denied the motion.            For its part, the government moved in
    limine to admit evidence of the brothers' prior incarceration.
    That motion got denied, too.              The Gonsalveses' trial finally got
    underway on September 8, 2014.            Here are some of the highlights of
    the proceeding that animate the brothers' appellant challenges.
    During the trial, Joshua moved for a mistrial three times after
    government witnesses mentioned that he had done prison time--
    testimony    which       violated   the    trial    court's      pre-trial   ruling
    excluding any mention of either brother's prior incarceration.
    Stanley     made    his    own   mistrial       motion   after     the   government
    referenced Stanley's stint in the slammer in closing arguments.
    All four motions were denied.
    - 6 -
    Strategically,    the    brothers     mounted    a    credibility
    defense throughout the trial and in their closing arguments.                 They
    contended that the government's witnesses could not be believed
    because some were addicted to drugs, some were "jilted" lovers who
    wanted revenge, and many had taken the stand in exchange for lesser
    sentences or deferred prosecution for their own roles in the
    conspiracy.     Despite these credibility challenges, both brothers
    were found guilty on all of the charges except the § 924(c) count--
    Stanley was convicted of using a rifle in furtherance of the
    conspiracy    but   acquitted   of     using   a   pistol,    and   Joshua   was
    acquitted as to both guns.
    Guilt determined, the proceedings entered phase two--
    forfeiture.    Responding to additional instructions from the trial
    court, the jury found that two cars, a house, and the drug-deal
    cash seized from Joshua and Shaw were all subject to forfeiture.
    The jury also calculated that over five million dollars was
    "generated as proceeds of the [brothers'] oxycodone trafficking
    conspiracy"-- attributing 1.5 million to Joshua and the rest to
    Stanley.
    Following the trial's end, Joshua was first up for
    sentencing and received twenty years to serve.                  (He does not
    challenge his sentence here, so we do not get into the details.)
    Stanley was next up. His pre-sentence investigation report ("PSR")
    calculated a Guidelines sentencing range of life in prison, plus
    - 7 -
    sixty months for his gun conviction under 18 U.S.C. § 924(c).        The
    parties and the judge, in the end, agreed that life wasn't called
    for, so Stanley was sentenced to twenty-five years--twenty years
    for   the   drug-trafficking     conspiracy,   money   laundering,   and
    unlawful monetary transactions, plus five years for the gun charge.
    This appeal followed.
    DISCUSSION
    The brothers challenge the following aspects of their
    convictions and sentences:       (1) Joshua argues that the district
    court should have suppressed the evidence seized the night of his
    February 2012 arrest, (2) both brothers challenge the district
    court's denial of their motions for mistrial, (3) Stanley contends
    that the government presented insufficient evidence against him to
    support his conviction, and (4) Stanley argues that the court
    incorrectly   calculated   his    Guidelines   sentencing   range.    We
    address each issue in turn.
    I. Warrantless Car Search
    Joshua contends that the district court erred in denying
    his motion to suppress all of the evidence seized the night of his
    February 2012 arrest (the drugs, the money, and the digital scale).
    We begin with the background information necessary to explain that
    night's events, presenting the facts in the light most favorable
    to the government.    See 
    Burgos-Montes, 786 F.3d at 99
    .
    - 8 -
    a)   Background
    As we briefly mentioned before, on February 27, 2012,
    police acted on a tip they received from CI-1.   The informant who
    provided the information leading to the arrest of Joshua and Shaw
    and the seizure of illegal contraband claimed to be a regular
    enough oxycodone buyer that he or she knew when Joshua and Shaw's
    supply was running low--and when they planned to restock.        CI-1
    had proved his or her bona fides over time:3
       In October 2011, CI-1 told police that Gonsalves
    associate John Doe 1 had planned an off-Cape resupply
    run. Police observed John Doe 1 meet with John Doe 2
    (whom CI-1 had also previously identified as a Gonsalves
    associate). Police followed the two men on their drive
    off the Cape and back, as predicted. CI-1 then confirmed
    the new supply had been delivered.
       In November 2011, CI-1 told police about another off-
    Cape trip to buy oxycodone from a supplier; after
    watching the two men identified by CI-1 drive off
    together, police pulled them over and seized $69,000.
       In February 2012, CI-1 made a controlled buy from Joshua
    and Shaw.
    CI-1's hottest tip came on February 27, when CI-1 told
    police that Joshua and Shaw had put together enough money to buy
    more pills from an oxycodone supplier police referred to as "John
    3We also note here that by the time CI-1 appeared on the
    scene in 2011, the FBI-led task force investigating Willis had
    already combined resources with the DEA-led task force and
    Barnstable police. So on top of their newly-cultivated source,
    the agents and officers investigating Joshua knew the brothers
    were trafficking oxycodone from evidence gathered during the
    Willis investigation, including wiretapped conversations and text
    messages from Willis' phone seized after his May 2011 arrest.
    - 9 -
    Doe 4."    Both CI-1 and a second CI had previously told police that
    John Doe 4 was Joshua's primary post-Willis oxycodone source. CI-1
    said Joshua and Shaw would leave home around 4:30 that afternoon
    in Joshua's black Cadillac, drive to the "New Bedford area," and
    return with about 2,000 pills.           Sure enough, Barnstable police
    spotted Joshua, Shaw, and a second woman (who turned out to be
    Shaw's    friend   Ariana   Tavares)    in   the   black   Cadillac   heading
    westbound (towards New Bedford) at 4:50.           Police tailed them to a
    house in Acushnet, a town that shares a border with New Bedford.
    They watched the trio park next to a white Infiniti, exit the car,
    and enter the house where the Infiniti was parked.              Police knew
    from pulling over that same white Infiniti one month prior that
    the car belonged to John Doe 4.
    When Joshua, Shaw, and Tavares left some two hours later,
    police tailed them to the highway, clocked Joshua driving sixty-
    five miles-per-hour in a fifty-five mile-per-hour zone, and pulled
    him over.     When the officer who conducted the stop reported back
    to headquarters, he was instructed to ask Joshua for permission to
    search the car.     But if Joshua refused, the officer was instructed
    to search the car anyway because the police had probable cause to
    believe "the occupants of the vehicle were in possession of
    oxycodone."    Joshua did refuse, so police ordered him, Shaw, and
    Tavares out of the car.      During a frisk of Joshua, police found a
    $6,253 cash wad in his pocket.         It was too dark outside to search
    - 10 -
    the car, so police called for a drug-sniffing dog.                    Overhearing
    the talk about the arrival of a drug dog, Shaw pulled a bag of
    pills from her bra and threw them into the woods.              Seeing the toss,
    police recovered the pills, precipitating the arrests of the three
    occupants.      In a post-arrest search, police found another $16,760
    in a speaker box in the trunk, a digital scale in the console, and
    a second cache of pills in Shaw's bra.
    Joshua     subsequently     moved   to     suppress   the    evidence
    seized during the search, claiming that the stop and search
    violated his Fourth Amendment rights because at the time of the
    stop, police did not have reasonable suspicion to believe Joshua
    had committed a crime. The district court held a pre-trial hearing
    on Joshua's motion.         Mark Butler, a Barnstable police detective
    then   serving     on    the   DEA's    Cape     Cod    Drug   Task   Force    and
    investigating the Gonsalves brothers, submitted an affidavit about
    the Gonsalves investigation and the traffic stop and he also
    testified at the hearing.        Butler was not present at the stop and
    search, but he explained the state of law enforcement's Gonsalves
    investigation and his belief that police had probable cause to
    search Joshua's car at the time based on CI-1's information. After
    the hearing, the court denied Joshua's motion.                 The court found
    that CI-1's tip gave police reasonable suspicion that Joshua was
    involved   in    drug    trafficking,     and    that    reasonable      suspicion
    justified the stop, Joshua's frisk, and detaining the car and its
    - 11 -
    occupants until the drug-sniffing dog could arrive.     United States
    v. Gonsalves, 
    34 F. Supp. 3d 196
    , 200-01 (D. Mass. 2014).       When
    police saw Shaw discard the drugs, officers had probable cause to
    arrest Joshua, Shaw, and Tavares.         
    Id. at 201.
       Police were
    entitled to search the Cadillac incident to those arrests.     
    Id. On appeal,
    Joshua argues that the district court got it
    wrong.   His theory goes like this:   police had no right to ask him
    to get out of the car to begin with (the officer told Joshua he
    was stopped for speeding) or to detain him at the scene to wait
    for a drug-sniffing dog, and if they hadn't done these things Shaw
    never would have tossed the pills, and if she hadn't tossed the
    pills police wouldn't have had cause to search the car or arrest
    them.    The government argues that the police had probable cause
    based on CI-1's tip to stop the car and search its occupants, so
    everything that followed was fair game.       But even if not, the
    government argues that the district court was right to find that
    police had reasonable suspicion to stop the car, and that suspicion
    ripened into probable cause to arrest everyone and search the car
    when Shaw pitched the drugs.
    b)   Probable Cause Analysis
    We review a district court's denial of a motion to
    suppress de novo, we review subsidiary findings of facts for clear
    error, and we must uphold a denial of a suppression motion if any
    reasonable view of the record supports it.        United States v.
    - 12 -
    Polanco, 
    634 F.3d 39
    , 41-42 (1st Cir. 2011).         Under this rubric we
    can likewise affirm a denial on any basis apparent in the record.
    United States v. Sanchez, 
    612 F.3d 1
    , 4 (1st Cir. 2010).           We agree
    with the government that the officers had probable cause to stop
    Joshua and search the car, and so we affirm the district court's
    denial of his motion to suppress.
    The    Fourth   Amendment    ordinarily   requires    police   to
    obtain a warrant before conducting a search, but under the so-
    called "automobile exception," all the police need is probable
    cause to search the vehicle.      California v. Acevedo, 
    500 U.S. 565
    ,
    580 (1991); accord United States v. Lopez, 
    380 F.3d 538
    , 543 (1st
    Cir. 2004).      "[P]robable cause only 'exists when the totality of
    the circumstances suggests that there is a fair probability that
    contraband or evidence of a crime will be found in [the vehicle].'"
    United States v. Ramírez-Rivera, 
    800 F.3d 1
    , 27 (1st Cir. 2015)
    (quoting United States v. Gifford, 
    727 F.3d 92
    , 98 (1st Cir.
    2013)), cert. denied, 
    136 S. Ct. 908
    (2016), and cert. denied sub
    nom. Laureano-Salgado v. United States, 
    136 S. Ct. 917
    , (2016).
    "The government bears the burden of proving the lawfulness of the
    search."   
    Lopez, 380 F.3d at 543
    .
    Where, as here, the police act on information from a
    confidential     informant,   "law     enforcement   must   provide   some
    information    from   which   a   court    can   credit   the   informant's
    credibility."     United States v. White, 
    804 F.3d 132
    , 136 (1st Cir.
    - 13 -
    2015) (quoting 
    Ramírez-Rivera, 800 F.3d at 27-28
    ), cert. denied,
    
    136 S. Ct. 1229
    (2016).       In assessing an informant's credibility,
    we consider factors such as "(1) the probable veracity and basis
    of    knowledge    of   the   informant;    (2)    whether   an    informant's
    statements reflect first-hand knowledge; (3) whether some or all
    of the informant's factual statements were corroborated wherever
    reasonable and practicable; and (4) whether a law enforcement
    officer assessed, from his professional standpoint, experience,
    and   expertise,    the   probable   significance      of    the   informant's
    information."      
    Id. at 137.
    Applying those factors, CI-1 had a track record of
    supplying reliable information to police--as we noted earlier,
    three times before the February 2012 search CI-1 had proven
    reliable.   Accordingly, when CI-1 tipped police off to Joshua and
    Shaw's planned trip to the New Bedford area about three weeks
    later, this track record gave police reason to believe CI-1's
    newest tip was probably reliable, too.            See United States v. Tiem
    Trinh, 
    665 F.3d 1
    , 10-11 (1st Cir. 2011); 
    Ramírez-Rivera, 800 F.3d at 28
    (police history with informant can establish credibility).4
    4
    Joshua suggests that the three-week time period that passed
    after CI-1's last confirmed tip made the tip at issue here somehow
    unreliable, or otherwise tarnished CI-1's record of reliability.
    But he does not explain why that is so--and in light of the steps
    we explain below that police took to confirm the tip before acting
    on it, we do not think it is.
    - 14 -
    Further, notwithstanding Joshua's unsubstantiated claim
    to   the   contrary,   the   record   shows    that   CI-1   had   first-hand
    knowledge of Joshua and Shaw's operation that bolstered CI-1's
    credibility.     Specifically, CI-1 admitted to buying oxycodone from
    Joshua and Shaw many times, so the CI knew when their supply was
    low and when they needed to restock.           See 
    White, 804 F.3d at 137
    (past drug purchases from tip subject are first-hand knowledge of
    drug operations that bolster credibility).
    Moreover, the tip included details of Joshua and Shaw's
    future activities "ordinarily not easily predicted," and almost
    all of these details were corroborated by police surveillance
    before Joshua's car was stopped.        
    Ramírez-Rivera, 800 F.3d at 29
    (quoting Alabama v. White, 
    496 U.S. 325
    , 332 (1990)).                  Police
    spotted Joshua's Cadillac (the vehicle identified by CI-1) on the
    highway heading out of town at 4:50 pm (shortly after CI-1 said
    Joshua and Shaw planned to leave) and followed it to a house in
    Acushnet (CI-1 said they would be driving to the New Bedford area,
    and Acushnet abuts New Bedford).         The Cadillac parked next to a
    white Infiniti that belonged to John Doe 4 (the dealer identified
    by CI-1).      After the Cadillac parked, Joshua and Shaw got out of
    the car (CI-1 said the two of them were making the trip).
    Finally, police assessed and understood the significance
    of   CI-1's    information   before   making    the   stop.        Police   had
    independent knowledge of the brothers' prior drug-trafficking
    - 15 -
    activity through the Willis investigation--including information
    from two Willis couriers caught bringing pills from Florida up to
    Massachusetts for the Gonsalves brothers.     See United States v.
    Taylor, 
    985 F.2d 3
    , 6 (1st Cir. 1993) (officer's "knowledge of the
    target's prior criminal activity or record . . . is material to
    the probable cause determination").     Furthermore, sources other
    than CI-1 developed during and after the Willis investigation told
    police that Joshua and Stanley were continuing to sell oxycodone
    sourced from other suppliers after Willis' arrest.     If more were
    needed, the task force officer leading the Gonsalves investigation
    (and who told the officer who stopped Joshua that police already
    had probable cause) had specialized training and experience in
    drug investigations.   See 
    id. (officer's "experience
    and pertinent
    expertise" in drug-crime investigations bolstered probable cause
    finding).    In short, law enforcement assessed CI-1's tip in the
    context of the overall Willis and Gonsalves investigations and in
    light of their expertise.
    But hold on. Before we find probable cause, Joshua says,
    we must consider indicia of an informant's unreliability, too--
    and Joshua thinks that CI-1's tip was so inaccurate that it could
    not support a finding of probable cause.      See United States v.
    Vigeant, 
    176 F.3d 565
    , 573 n.9 (1st Cir. 1999).       Specifically,
    Joshua points out that (1) he drove to Acushnet, but CI-1 said he
    was headed to New Bedford; (2) CI-1 didn't mention that Shaw's
    - 16 -
    friend would be with Joshua and Shaw; and (3) police only found
    280 pills, not the promised 2,000.                 But none of these facts
    undermine our belief that police had probable cause to stop and
    search    the    car   that   night.     First,    although     the   task   force
    officer's affidavit said Joshua was going to New Bedford, the
    officer testified at the suppression hearing that the CI said
    Joshua was going to the "New Bedford area," and the district
    court's findings of fact listed the destination as the "New Bedford
    area." 
    Gonsalves, 34 F. Supp. 3d at 199
    . Joshua does not challenge
    that finding of fact as clearly erroneous on appeal, so we adopt
    it here.    See 
    Polanco, 634 F.3d at 41-42
    .         Acushnet and New Bedford
    are adjoining towns, so CI-1's claim that Joshua was heading to
    the "New Bedford area" was accurate.            The same goes for his second
    point--that CI-1 didn't tell police that Tavares would be along
    for the ride--because the omission of the fact does not make CI-1's
    tip inaccurate as to the presence of Joshua and Shaw.                 But even if
    it   did,   we   assess   probable     cause    under    the   totality   of   the
    circumstances, 
    White, 804 F.3d at 136
    , and given the other factors
    we described above, this point does little to undermine the
    government's      probable-cause        argument    or    our    probable-cause
    finding.    Joshua's third argument--that Shaw was only carrying a
    fraction of the drugs that CI-1 predicted--doesn't help his case,
    either.     We measure probable cause at the time the officers
    effectuate the search.         See 
    Lopez, 380 F.3d at 543
    .            That means
    - 17 -
    the mid-search discovery of a smaller-than-anticipated pill stash
    does not change whether the officers had probable cause to begin
    with.
    All things considered, we find the police had probable
    cause to stop Joshua and search his car.           We affirm the district
    court's order denying Joshua's motion to suppress the evidence
    found during the search.5
    II. Motions for Mistrial
    Next, Joshua and Stanley claim that the district court
    abused its discretion in denying their motions for a mistrial.
    Once again, we present some relevant context before we explain the
    arguments and our analysis; but this time, we present the facts in
    a balanced manner.         
    Burgos-Montes, 786 F.3d at 99
    .
    a)   Background
    Before trial began, the government filed motions in
    limine      to    introduce   evidence   that   Stanley   and   Joshua   were
    5
    He also says that the testimony of Katelyn Shaw should be
    suppressed, the theory being: (1) police detained Joshua and Shaw
    longer than necessary to dispel the reasonable suspicion police
    had to pull them over to begin with (if they even had reasonable
    suspicion), and (2) it was only because of this unlawfully-long
    detention that Shaw lobbed her drugs and was eventually forced to
    testify, so (3) her testimony is the fruit of her unlawful
    detention. The government points out that Joshua did not raise
    this argument to the district court, so it argues that the issue
    is waived. We agree. See United States v. Santos Batista, 
    239 F.3d 16
    , 19 (1st Cir. 2001) ("Failure to raise suppression
    arguments before trial 'shall constitute waiver thereof.'"
    (quoting Fed. R. Crim. P. 12(f))).
    - 18 -
    previously incarcerated.      Before going into business with Willis,
    the brothers were part of a burglary crew that got caught; the
    government hoped to show that the Gonsalveses and those crew
    members enlisted their girlfriends and wives to sell oxycodone on
    their behalf while they were in jail.          The government also wanted
    to prove that Stanley and Willis were incarcerated together,
    arguing that this fact was "intrinsic" to the conspiracy--the idea
    being that the two trusted each other enough to strike their
    illicit deal when Stanley got out of jail in 2009 because they
    were simpatico in jail together.             The Gonsalveses, of course,
    wanted to keep out any mention of past jail time, and pointed out
    that Federal Rule of Evidence 404(b)(1) prohibits the use of
    evidence of past crimes to show propensity (meaning that if they
    did it once, they probably did it again).         Before trial began, the
    district court ruled that witnesses could "talk about their prior
    relationships with the defendants" in order to show the "basis for
    the coconspirators' relationship of mutual trust."            But, the judge
    said, "I am categorically prohibiting the government in any way
    from referring to any prior period of incarceration" as to either
    defendant.    And yet, it came up four times.
    The first mention came on the fifth day of trial from
    Danielle LeBaron, who testified that she "transported drugs" for
    Stanley.     When the government asked LeBaron about a conversation
    she   had   with   Joshua   about   oxycodone,   she   said    "[i]t   was   a
    - 19 -
    conversation about Josh making money, since he just got out of
    jail."      Joshua objected and the government moved to strike,
    explaining that LeBaron's response "was not intended."            The court
    immediately struck the testimony and told the jury: "[y]ou can't
    consider anything having to do with that."             At a later sidebar
    conference away from the jury's earshot, Joshua moved for a
    mistrial.     The government pointed out it had instructed LeBaron
    "repeatedly" not to bring up Joshua's prior jail time.            The court
    denied Joshua's motion, but offered to give an additional jury
    instruction.     Joshua turned down the offer, explaining that "if
    you   call    attention   to     it,   it's    going    to    compound     the
    circumstances."     The court later confirmed with LeBaron that the
    government    had   instructed   her   not    to   mention   Joshua's    prior
    incarceration, and admonished her not to mention it in her second
    day of testimony.
    The second jail allusion came on the ninth day of trial,
    when the Gonsalveses' sister, Nichole Gonsalves, was testifying
    about the purchase of Joshua's Cadillac.            Nichole said she used
    the car to drive Joshua to "appointments"; when asked what those
    appointments were she replied, "probation."            The district court
    judge "thought [Nichole] was referring to the cousin," not Joshua,
    and clarified "This is someone else completely, right, a cousin?"
    before granting the government's motion to strike the question.
    Joshua renewed his mistrial motion; the court denied it.
    - 20 -
    Third, on day ten, Crystal Flaherty (a cooperating ex-
    girlfriend) was asked what Joshua said to her about his oxycodone
    trafficking.       Flaherty responded, "He said that he was working for
    Stanley.       He was the driver; this is what he needed to do.         He was
    a--he had a broken hip.            He was a convicted felon."       The court
    struck the answer as "inappropriate," then instructed the jury to
    disregard any stricken testimony, and specifically Flaherty's last
    answer, because it was "completely irrelevant" to the case. Joshua
    again moved for a mistrial.          At sidebar, the government confirmed
    that it had instructed Flaherty not to discuss Joshua's prior
    incarceration.       The court reserved judgment on Joshua's motion for
    a mistrial, explaining:            "this is one of the most overwhelming
    government cases I've seen in a long time.               I haven't heard [the
    Gonsalveses'] side of the story yet, but I am just not sure it's
    been prejudicial."6
    Finally, in closing the prosecutor described a recorded
    call between Stanley and Vincent Alberico (a witness who testified
    that he resold pills he bought from Stanley, and who was arrested
    while       transporting    some   pills   for   Stanley).    The   prosecutor
    explained, "Vinnie is still in jail, Stanley is out of jail, and
    Stanley is"--before he was cut off by Stanley's objection and the
    court's       instruction     that   the    prosecutor    "misspoke."      The
    6
    Apparently, the district court judge did not give a final
    ruling on this motion, nor was she asked to do so.
    - 21 -
    prosecutor, rephrasing, continued saying, "[Stanley] is out in the
    community back on the Cape," before noting that Stanley bragged to
    Alberico about how women wanted to "marry" him for just "one little
    blue pill."      The district court denied Stanley's later motion for
    a mistrial based on the statement that he was "out of jail."                      In
    its   instructions    to    the   jury,    the    court    explained,      "closing
    arguments made by the lawyers are not evidence," and emphasized
    that "[y]ou can't consider anything that I struck."
    On    appeal,   the   brothers       separately       argue    that   the
    district court abused its discretion by denying their motions for
    mistrial.     Joshua argues that the three witness statements are
    improper propensity evidence:             they invite the jury to convict
    based on the fact that he committed crimes in the past, not on the
    evidence    presented      at   trial,    so   the   mentions      of     his   prior
    incarcerations interfered with his presumption of innocence.                      The
    prosecutor's closing remark that Stanley was "out of jail" was the
    "icing on the government's cake"--it drove home the message that
    the Gonsalves brothers were criminals.               The prejudice resulting
    from these remarks as a whole requires a mistrial, Joshua contends.
    Stanley     claims    the     witnesses'      three    remarks      about
    Joshua's prior incarcerations had a "spillover" effect on him, and
    that the prosecutor's closing remark was Stanley's own ticket to
    a mistrial.      The government argues that any potential prejudice to
    - 22 -
    Joshua and Stanley was mitigated by the district court's prompt
    jury instructions, so a mistrial was not called for.
    b)   Mistrial Analysis
    We review a district court's denial of a motion for a
    mistrial for abuse of discretion.            United States v. Trinidad-
    Acosta, 
    773 F.3d 298
    , 306 (1st Cir. 2014) (improper testimony);
    United States v. Gentles, 
    619 F.3d 75
    , 80-81 (1st Cir. 2010)
    (prosecutor's misconduct in closing arguments).          First we consider
    whether the remarks were improper--that is, whether the challenged
    testimony was inadmissible, or the prosecutor's remark rose to the
    level of misconduct.     See 
    Trinidad-Acosta, 773 F.3d at 306
    ; United
    States v. Vázquez-Botet, 
    532 F.3d 37
    , 56 (1st Cir. 2008); United
    States v. Cresta, 
    825 F.2d 538
    , 549 (1st Cir. 1987).           Second, if
    the   remarks   are   improper,   "we   consider   the   totality   of   the
    circumstances to determine whether the defendant has demonstrated
    the kind of clear prejudice [from improper remarks] that would
    render the court's denial of his motion for a mistrial a manifest
    abuse of discretion."       
    Trinidad-Acosta, 773 F.3d at 306
    (quoting
    United States v. Dunbar, 
    553 F.3d 48
    , 58 (1st Cir. 2009)).           Those
    circumstances include "the context of the improper remark, whether
    it was deliberate or accidental, the likely effect of the curative
    instruction,    and   the   strength    of   the   evidence   against    the
    appellants."    
    Id. at 306-07
    (quoting 
    Cresta, 825 F.2d at 549-50
    );
    see 
    Gentles, 619 F.3d at 81
    .            A mistrial is a "last resort"
    - 23 -
    implemented only where the "taint" of the improper evidence is
    "ineradicable" and the jury's exposure to it "beyond realistic
    hope of repair."          
    Trinidad-Acosta, 773 F.3d at 306
    ; see 
    Cresta, 825 F.2d at 550
    (mistrial only appropriate where statement likely
    to have affected the jury verdict).
    Assessing the witnesses' remarks about Joshua, and then
    the prosecutor's statement about Stanley under this standard, we
    find that the district court did not abuse its discretion in
    denying Joshua's and Stanley's motions.
    i)    Witness Statements
    As to the appropriateness of the comments about Joshua,
    the witness testimony about his prior incarceration in the context
    of these trial proceedings was likely improper.                 "It is axiomatic
    that the prosecution cannot introduce evidence of defendant's bad
    character    or    previous    criminal    activity     to   prove      defendant's
    propensity to commit the crime charged."            United States v. Sclamo,
    
    578 F.2d 888
    , 890 (1st Cir. 1978); see also 
    Cresta, 825 F.2d at 549
    .     Yet considering the remarks under the totality of the
    circumstances, we do not believe the remarks were likely so
    prejudicial as to have affected the verdict.
    For    one     thing,   the     remarks     were      fleeting     and
    unaccompanied by any details about Joshua's past crimes or prison
    terms.       See    
    Trinidad-Acosta, 773 F.3d at 307
        ("[F]leeting
    references    [to    the     defendant's    incarceration]        are    generally
    - 24 -
    allowed,    but    extended     comment      is    impermissible.")      (citation
    omitted); United States v. De Jesus Mateo, 
    373 F.3d 70
    , 73 (1st
    Cir. 2004) (brief mention of past incarceration "with little
    detail" did not warrant mistrial).                 Indeed, Nichole's statement
    may not have registered with the jury at all:                the district court
    thought    Nichole      said   she   drove    Joshua's     cousin   to   probation
    appointments,      not    Joshua     himself.        Although   the      other    two
    statements were not so ambiguous--LeBaron said Joshua had just
    gotten out of jail, and Flaherty said Joshua was a felon--these
    statements were brief and devoid of detail.
    Further, Joshua's claims notwithstanding, nothing in the
    record indicates that the remarks were made deliberately.                        See
    
    Cresta, 825 F.2d at 550
    .              In each instance, the prosecution's
    questioning       was    proceeding        along    legitimate--and      otherwise
    relevant--lines,        unrelated     to    the    prior   prison   terms.       The
    questions posed could naturally have been answered without any
    reference to Joshua's time in jail.                The record also shows that
    the district court judge questioned LeBaron herself to confirm
    that the prosecution had followed the judge's instruction and
    warned LeBaron against mentioning Joshua's jail time.
    Additionally, as the government points out, the district
    court issued a prompt curative instruction with each witness's
    slip-up.    We see no reason to believe that the district court's
    curative    instructions       were    not    effective.        "'[W]ithin       wide
    - 25 -
    margins, the potential for prejudice . . . can be satisfactorily
    dispelled   by   appropriate   curative   instructions.'   Jurors   are
    presumed to follow such instructions, except in extreme cases."
    United States v. Freeman, 
    208 F.3d 332
    , 345 (1st Cir. 2000)
    (quoting United States v. Sepulveda, 
    15 F.3d 1161
    , 1184 (1st Cir.
    1993)) (internal citation omitted).       Indeed, whenever "a curative
    instruction is promptly given, a mistrial is warranted only in
    rare circumstances implying extreme prejudice." United States v.
    Van Anh, 
    523 F.3d 43
    , 54 (1st Cir. 2008) (quoting United States v.
    Reiner, 
    500 F.3d 10
    , 16 (1st Cir. 2007)).       Given the content and
    context of the remarks, the witnesses' remarks do not represent
    the "extreme case" that would make Joshua and Stanley's case the
    exception to the rule.
    Finally, we note that the evidence against Joshua and
    Stanley was, as the district judge put it, "overwhelming."          The
    allegedly mistrial-worthy witness statements were dropped mid-
    stream in explanations of significantly more salacious details
    about the brothers' drug trafficking.          LeBaron mentioned that
    Joshua was freshly out of jail just before she explained her own
    role as a courier for Stanley, flying pills from Florida to Boston,
    and distributing pills and picking up money all over Cape Cod.
    Nichole made her reference to Joshua's probation while describing
    how she helped her brother use cash to buy a Cadillac registered
    in her name (relevant to Joshua's charge of concealment money
    - 26 -
    laundering). Flaherty, too, mentioned that Joshua was a "convicted
    felon" immediately before launching into a description of Joshua
    and Stanley's oxycodone-trafficking business.
    Considering these factors under the totality of the
    circumstances, Joshua has not demonstrated such "clear prejudice"
    from the improper witness testimony that the district court's
    denial   of     his   mistrial       motions    was   a   "manifest     abuse   of
    discretion."     
    Trinidad-Acosta, 773 F.3d at 306
    .
    That finding means that Stanley--who was not directly
    implicated by any of the remarks--hasn't, either.              We turn next to
    the prosecutor's statement in his closing argument to see what, if
    anything, it adds to Joshua's argument, and whether the district
    court abused its discretion in denying Stanley's motion.
    ii)   Closing Argument
    As a reminder, we check to see whether a prosecutor's
    remark   rose    to   the    level    of   prosecutorial    misconduct     before
    assessing the prejudice caused by the remark under the totality of
    the circumstances.          
    Vázquez-Botet, 532 F.3d at 56
    .            Even though
    the defendants' briefs are silent on the point, we assume for the
    sake of argument that the Stanley-is-out-of-jail statement amounts
    to misconduct.
    But considering the prejudice caused by the remark under
    the totality of the circumstances, it did not "so poison[] the
    well that the trial's outcome was likely affected, thus warranting
    - 27 -
    a new trial."   
    Gentles, 619 F.3d at 81
    (quoting United States v.
    Azubike, 
    504 F.3d 30
    , 38 (1st Cir. 2007)).         The comment was
    isolated, and we see no indication that it was made deliberately.
    Indeed, the prosecutor himself immediately attempted to clarify
    his point by saying that Stanley was "in the community."       The
    district court quickly struck the offending remark, and later when
    instructing the jury, cautioned them that the closing remarks were
    not evidence and that the jury could not consider anything the
    judge had stricken.   Finally, as we explained above, the evidence
    against both brothers was extremely strong, so we do not believe
    any remaining prejudice could have influenced the jury's verdict.
    Under these circumstances, the district court did not
    abuse its discretion in denying Stanley's motion for a mistrial.
    Moreover, in light of the isolated nature of the prosecutor's
    comment (which had nothing to do with Joshua) and the judge's
    curative instructions, we do not think the prosecutor's comment
    adds enough to Joshua's mistrial argument to shift the balance (if
    indeed it adds anything at all).   The district court did not abuse
    its discretion in denying the brothers' motions.
    III. Sufficiency of the Evidence against Stanley
    Stanley argues that he should have been acquitted--of
    everything, and of the gun charge at a bare minimum--because the
    government did not present enough evidence for the jury to convict
    him.   First, we explain the few facts necessary to understand his
    - 28 -
    arguments in the light most favorable to the verdict, Rodríguez-
    
    Soler, 773 F.3d at 289-290
    , followed by the arguments and our take.
    a) Background
    As we mentioned earlier, the charges against Stanley
    included   possession   of   a    firearm   in    furtherance       of    a   drug-
    trafficking   conspiracy     in   violation      of   18   U.S.C.   §     924(c)--
    specifically, a rifle.       At trial, two witnesses testified that
    Stanley possessed that rifle:
       Alexa Doran--one of Stanley's exes and the mother of one
    of his children--testified that Stanley bought a "big
    gun, like a rifle or something" in a large case from a
    friend and stored it behind the couch for a few weeks.
    During that time, she was working for Stanley and
    counting money and distributing pills in the apartment
    where the gun was kept.
       Matthew Hernon--Doran's brother, who started working for
    Stanley when he was fifteen or sixteen and chauffeured
    Stanley to drug deals while still on his learner's
    permit--testified that in 2011, he saw an AR-15, the
    "public model of the M16" assault rifle, in Stanley's
    house. Stanley pulled a case out from behind the couch,
    took the gun out of the case, cocked the gun, and pointed
    it at Hernon from one or two feet away.        Afterwards
    Stanely wiped his fingerprints off the gun and put it
    back in the case.    Stanley told Hernon he was afraid
    someone was going to rob him, so he had the gun for
    protection.
    In his opening and closing arguments, and throughout his
    cross-examination of the government's witnesses, Stanley attacked
    the witnesses' credibility.          Hernon, for instance, wanted an
    opportunity to get back at Stanley for leaving Doran for another
    woman while Doran was pregnant with Stanley's child.                     On top of
    - 29 -
    being a jilted ex, Doran also had a drug problem while she was
    working for Stanley and was testifying against him to avoid
    prosecution for her own part in the conspiracy.                  (Thirteen of the
    thirty-six witnesses were alleged co-conspirators subject to this
    brand of attack.)
    At the close of the evidence, Stanley moved for a
    judgment of acquittal.         The district court denied the motion.
    Stanley now reprises his two-part insufficient-evidence
    challenge, contending as he did below that (1) the government
    presented insufficient evidence on all of the charges because
    "[a]ll     of    the     witnesses"   were       proven   incredible--all         were
    "impeached" by their animosity for the brothers, criminal past, or
    the deals they got for testifying; and (2) the government did not
    present evidence that he possessed a gun in furtherance of a drug-
    trafficking offense, as it must for the jury to convict him under
    § 924(c), because "[b]eyond the rifle's existence, there is no
    evidence it was ever used . . . as part of any transaction."                      The
    government disagrees.
    b)    Sufficiency Analysis
    We review a district court's denial of a motion for
    judgment    of    acquittal     de    novo,      considering     "whether,    after
    assaying    all    the    evidence    in   the    light   most   amiable     to    the
    government, and taking all reasonable inferences in its favor, a
    rational factfinder could find, beyond a reasonable doubt, that
    - 30 -
    the prosecution successfully proved the essential elements of the
    crime."   United States v. George, 
    841 F.3d 55
    , 61 (1st Cir. 2016)
    (quoting United States v. Chiaradio, 
    684 F.3d 265
    , 281 (1st Cir.
    2012)).
    i)     Witness Credibility
    Stanley's        witness-credibility-based       sufficiency
    argument is hopeless.        As a general matter, in reviewing the
    sufficiency of the evidence this court "must defer all credibility
    judgments to the jury."       United States v. O'Brien, 
    14 F.3d 703
    ,
    706 (1st Cir. 1994); accord United States v. Sepulveda, 
    15 F.3d 1161
    , 1174 n.4 (1st Cir. 1993).      "We are not at liberty to question
    the credibility of witnesses."       United States v. Rodríguez-Milían,
    
    820 F.3d 26
    , 31 (1st Cir. 2016), cert. denied, 
    137 S. Ct. 138
    (2016). As the government points out, Stanley made his credibility
    arguments to the jury, but the jury found him guilty nonetheless.
    On appeal, he simply reiterates that the witnesses were incredible,
    but does not explain how or why his case escapes our credibility
    rule, so this argument gets him nowhere.
    ii)    Gun Charge
    Stanley's    §   924(c)   transactional   argument   fares   no
    better--a rational factfinder could find Stanley guilty of the
    § 924(c) charge beyond a reasonable doubt.             Contrary to his
    position on appeal, the government did not have to show that
    Stanley used the gun in a drug transaction in order to convict.
    - 31 -
    Instead, it had to show three things, that Stanley (1) possessed
    a firearm (2) in furtherance of (3) a drug-trafficking crime.                  18
    U.S.C. § 924(c)(1)(A), (2).
    As   to   the   first   element,       the    government    presented
    evidence that Stanley possessed a gun:            Doran and Hernon testified
    that they saw Stanley handle a rifle he pulled out from behind his
    couch, and Hernon said Stanley pointed it at him.                     See United
    States v. Carlos Cruz, 
    352 F.3d 499
    , 509 (1st Cir. 2003) (testimony
    that    defendant    was   carrying   a     gun       established    element   of
    possession).
    As to the second element, the government also presented
    evidence that Stanley possessed the gun "in furtherance of" his
    oxycodone-trafficking      conspiracy.            A    gun    is   possessed   in
    furtherance of a crime where it is possessed "to advance or promote
    the commission of the underlying offense."                     United States v.
    Robinson, 
    473 F.3d 387
    , 399 (1st Cir. 2007) (quoting United States
    v. Grace, 
    367 F.3d 29
    , 35 (1st Cir. 2004)).                  For instance, a gun
    kept near a drug distribution point for "protection from robbery
    of drug-sale proceeds . . . may reasonably be considered to be
    possessed 'in furtherance of' an ongoing drug-trafficking crime."
    Carlos 
    Cruz, 352 F.3d at 509
    (quoting United States v. Garner, 
    338 F.3d 78
    , 81 (1st Cir. 2003)).         That's what the government showed
    here:    Doran said Stanley kept the gun behind the couch where he
    distributed oxycodone pills and counted drug money, and Hernon
    - 32 -
    said he had the rifle for protection in case someone tried to rob
    him.
    As for element three, Stanley was convicted of a drug-
    trafficking crime--conspiracy to possess with intent to distribute
    and conspiracy to distribute oxycodone under 18 U.S.C. §§ 841(a)(1)
    and 846.     Aside from his witness-credibility argument, which we
    have already rejected, Stanley does not otherwise challenge that
    conviction    on   appeal.   The   government    presented   sufficient
    evidence for the jury to convict Stanley of possessing the rifle
    in furtherance of his drug-trafficking conspiracy.7
    IV. Stanley's Sentence
    That brings us to the last claim on appeal--Stanley's
    argument that his Guidelines sentencing range was incorrectly
    calculated and so his sentence is procedurally unreasonable.        As
    before, we begin by recounting the relevant facts in a balanced
    manner.    
    Burgos-Montes, 786 F.3d at 99
    .
    7
    Stanley puzzlingly mentions that the jury was confused about
    his guilt because it wrote "? Were any guns seized?" on the verdict
    form.   The government doesn't have to introduce the actual gun
    into evidence to prove a § 924(c) charge--indeed, the jury's note
    doesn't relate to any element of the offense--so we do not see how
    this point helps Stanley. In any case, we don't have to parse it
    out any further because the argument is undeveloped, and
    undeveloped arguments are waived. United States v. Zannino, 
    895 F.2d 1
    , 17 (1st Cir. 1990).
    - 33 -
    a)   Background
    Stanley's    pre-sentence       investigation    report      ("PSR")
    calculated    Stanley's    Guidelines    sentencing     range    as    life      in
    prison,   plus    five   years   for   his    conviction     under   18    U.S.C.
    § 924(c).    Stanley's criminal history score was twenty, which put
    him in criminal history category VI.            U.S. Sentencing Guidelines
    Manual ("U.S.S.G.") Ch. 5, pt. A (U.S. Sentencing Comm'n 2014).
    The PSR calculated his total offense level as forty-six.               The only
    component    of   that   offense-level   calculation       relevant       here   is
    Stanley's base offense level, which is determined by the quantity
    of drugs attributable to Stanley and involved in the conspiracy.
    See U.S.S.G. § 2D1.1(a)(5), (c).               The sentencing court found
    Stanley's base offense level was thirty-six, which it calculated
    by dividing the jury's $3,552,203 forfeiture verdict (Stanley's
    share of "the total gross proceeds of the oxycodone conspiracy")
    by $20 per pill (Stanley's average sale price when he sold thirty-
    milligram oxycodone pills to other dealers), and adding on the
    pills seized during the conspiracy.
    At sentencing, Stanley argued that his base offense
    level should have been even lower--thirty-four--because the drug-
    quantity calculation was based on "estimates," and so Stanley's
    drug quantity could not be established with certainty.                       But,
    Stanley's attorney said, "I'm not sure it makes any difference .
    . . whether he was a 36 to start or a 34, I think the computation
    - 34 -
    probably is almost irrelevant as we go forward."                 Indeed, the
    parties and the court agreed at sentencing "that life is not
    appropriate here."
    In their sentencing arguments, both Stanley and the
    government stressed how Stanley's role in the conspiracy compared
    to that of Joshua and Willis--both men were sentenced first, and
    both got twenty years in prison.            When Stanley pointed out, "all
    of the alleged kingpins," including Willis, "got non-Guideline
    sentences," the sentencing court interrupted to say that Stanley
    is "going to get a non-Guideline sentence."
    In sentencing Stanley to twenty years, plus five years
    for the § 924(c) charge, the court explained that Stanley was "the
    organizer on Cape Cod, on top of, as far as I'm concerned, even
    [his] brother Josh."        The judge stated that Stanley's twenty-five
    year sentence was "appropriate" and "sufficient but not greater
    than necessary" to serve a deterrent purpose, considering "the
    gravity   of    the   offense,     giving       [Stanley]   a   proportionate
    punishment     to   other    people    in      similar   situations   in   this
    conspiracy, and also essentially making sure that the deterrence
    goes out to the community that oxycodone is something that is
    harmful and that we take seriously." The judge reiterated, "[e]ven
    if my criminal Guideline sentencing turns out to be incorrect in
    some [way], this is what I think is sufficient but not greater
    than necessary to serve the purposes of punishment."
    - 35 -
    Stanley appeals his sentence, arguing that the district
    court overestimated the quantity of drugs attributable to him so
    his base offense level was too high.                        The government disagrees,
    and contends that even if the court made some error in assessing
    Stanley's drug quantity, the error did not affect his substantial
    rights.
    b)   Analysis
    Stanley did not object below on the grounds he raises on
    appeal, so we review his sentencing claim for plain error.8                           That
    means Stanley must show "(1) that an error occurred (2) which was
    clear and obvious and which not only (3) affected the [his]
    substantial rights, but also (4) seriously impaired the fairness,
    integrity, or public reputation of judicial proceedings."                           United
    States v. Rìos-Hernandez, 
    645 F.3d 456
    , 462 (1st Cir. 2011); accord
    United States v. Goodhue, 
    486 F.3d 52
    , 55 (1st Cir. 2007).                          Under
    this       standard,    Stanley     faces      a    steep     uphill   climb,   and   his
    arguments are not up to the challenge.                       As we explain, we agree
    with       the   government      that   even       if   a   clear   and   obvious    error
    occurred, Stanley's claim still fails because we cannot conclude
    8
    The parties squabble over whether some of Stanley's fact-
    specific drug-quantity-calculation arguments are waived. We give
    him the benefit of the doubt and review them all for plain error.
    See United States v. Kinsella, 
    622 F.3d 75
    , 86 (1st Cir. 2010)
    (taking an analogous approach).
    - 36 -
    that     the    error        "affected   [Stanley's]        substantial        rights."
    
    Goodhue, 486 F.3d at 55
    .
    On the third prong of plain error review, the defendant
    must show "a reasonable likelihood 'that, but for the error, the
    district court would have imposed a different, more favorable
    sentence.'"         United States v. Hudson, 
    823 F.3d 11
    , 19 (1st Cir.
    2016), cert. denied, 
    137 S. Ct. 620
    (2017) (quoting United States
    v. Ortiz, 
    741 F.3d 288
    , 293-94 (1st Cir. 2014)).                              Though an
    incorrectly         calculated      Guidelines    range     is,   in    itself,    often
    enough    to    meet    this     burden,    the    government       may   counter     by
    demonstrating that "the district court would have imposed the same
    sentence even without the error."                United States v. Reed, 
    830 F.3d 1
    , 4 (1st Cir. 2016) (internal quotation marks omitted) (quoting
    United States v. Tavares, 
    705 F.3d 4
    , 25 (1st Cir. 2013)); see
    United States v. Marchena-Silvestre, 
    802 F.3d 196
    , 201 (1st Cir.
    2015).    "Our approach has been to attempt to discern whether there
    exists 'a clear statement by the [sentencing] court that would be
    sufficient to diminish the potential of the [Guideline Sentencing
    Range] to influence the sentence actually imposed.'"                      
    Hudson, 823 F.3d at 19
    (quoting 
    Marchena-Silvestre, 802 F.3d at 201
    ).                         If so,
    we may affirm the defendant's sentence.                
    Id. We think
       the    sentencing     court    made      such   a   "clear
    statement" here.          First, Stanley proposed a lower drug-quantity
    calculation at sentencing.               Aware of his argument, the court
    - 37 -
    explained that Stanley's alternative Guidelines calculation did
    not matter because Stanley is "going to get a non-Guideline
    sentence."    Then, instead of basing Stanley's sentence on his
    Guidelines    range,   the   sentencing    judge   gave   Stanley    "a
    proportionate punishment" to that of his co-conspirators Willis
    and Joshua.    Both of these men were sentenced to twenty years'
    imprisonment, and Stanley's sentence was the same--plus five years
    for his § 924(c) conviction (remember Joshua was acquitted of that
    charge, and as the parties discussed at the sentencing hearing,
    Willis was never charged under the statute).       If more evidence of
    the sentencing judge's intent to give a non-Guidelines sentence
    were needed, she explained that even if the Guidelines range "turns
    out to be incorrect," the sentence was "sufficient but not greater
    than necessary to serve the purposes of punishment."       So even if
    there were some error in the court's drug-quantity calculation and
    the resulting Guidelines range--which we doubt--we think these
    statements show that the court would have imposed the same sentence
    even under the correct range.    That means that any error did not
    impact Stanley's substantial rights.      See 
    Reed, 830 F.3d at 8
    .
    - 38 -
    CONCLUSION
    For   the   reasons   stated   we   affirm   the   brothers'
    convictions and Stanley's sentence.9
    9 One more sentencing point: Stanley also argues that the
    district court erred in considering him a career offender under
    the Guidelines because he did not have "two prior felony
    convictions of either a crime of violence or a controlled substance
    offense."   U.S.S.G. § 4B1.1(a)(3).    Stanley himself points out
    that three of his convictions are career-offender predicates under
    the Guidelines' residual clause; his entire argument hinges on his
    claim that these convictions don't count because the residual
    clause is unconstitutionally vague.      But after this case was
    briefed and argued, the Supreme Court found that the Guidelines'
    residual clause "is not void for vagueness." Beckles v. United
    States, 
    137 S. Ct. 886
    , 892 (2017). That means Stanley has at
    least three predicates, so he has not shown the sentencing court
    erred in considering him a career offender.           Although the
    government conceded in its brief that the Guidelines' residual
    clause was unconstitutionally vague, this court is "not bound by
    the government's concession, which, while understandable before
    Beckles, turned out to be incorrect." United States v. Thompson,
    
    851 F.3d 129
    , 131 (1st Cir. 2017) (affirming career-offender-
    predicate status of Massachusetts assault and battery with a
    dangerous weapon under the Guidelines' residual clause over
    government concession that residual clause was invalid).
    - 39 -